Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2021-09-24

Canada: Outlook for Field Crops (PDF version, 198 KB)

Historical Data

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri Food Canada’s (AAFC) August outlook report for the 2020-21 crop year, which has ended for all crops, and provides the outlook for the 2021-22 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year started on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year started on September 1 and ends on August 31. The economic outlook, for the world and Canadian grain markets, is expected to continue to be affected by the domestic and international uncertainty caused by COVID-19.

For the 2020-21 crop year, the report provides the near final estimates for all crops, except for corn and soybeans, incorporating information from Statistics Canada’s (STC) September 8, 2021 report on stocks of grains and oilseeds as of July 31. Total field crop production was a record, but due to record exports, total carry out stocks (year end inventories) for all principal field crops declined to their lowest level in five years.

For the 2021-22 crop year, the outlook incorporates yield estimates from STC’s September 14, 2021 report, which are based on a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from STC’s Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from STC’s field crop reporting series, and agro climatic data. Total field crop production in Canada is estimated to decrease by 30% due to the severe drought conditions encountered over the majority of the growing season in Western Canada, where production is estimated to have declined by 40% from 2020 and be 36% below the previous five year average. Drought covered 94% of the agricultural land in Western Canada as at August 31, as illustrated in the latest AAFC Canadian Drought Monitor. Crop production in Eastern Canada is estimated to have risen slightly due to favorable growing conditions. Harvest in Western Canada is nearing completion and expected to be complete by the end of September for most crops. For all principal field crops, a low level of carry in stocks (beginning year inventories) combined with a substantial decrease in production is expected to result in a 25% decline in total supplies, which more-than offsets a sharp decline in exports and results in a further tightening of carry out stocks to a record low level. In general, grain prices in Canada are forecast to stay relatively strong, although global grain supplies are expected to become more comfortable, they are expected to remain relatively tight due to firm and sustained international demand. The decline in domestic production and tight domestic stock levels would also provide support to prices in Canada.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on October 20, 2021. STC publishes its final principal field crop production estimates for the year on December 3, 2021, based on a survey in November of approximately 28,600 farmers across Canada.

Total Grains and Oilseeds: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,660 27,491 27,691
Area harvested (kha) 26,263 26,536 26,453
Yield (t/ha) 3.34 3.44 2.47
Production (kt) 87,752 91,205 65,379
Imports (kt) 2,643 2,624 3,952
Total supply (kt) 104,919 107,435 80,802
Exports (kt) 44,825 51,260 31,865
Total Domestic Use (kt) 46,488 44,703 41,557
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,606 11,471 7,380
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,912 4,000 3,827
Area harvested (kha) 3,804 3,949 3,744
Yield (t/ha) 1.99 2.16 1.34
Production (kt) 7,559 8,545 5,005
Imports (kt) 328 344 317
Total supply (kt) 9,425 9,784 6,788
Exports (kt) 7,219 6,771 4,980
Total Domestic Use (kt) 1,311 1,547 1,343
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 896 1,467 465
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Principal Field Crops: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31,571 31,491 31,518
Area harvested (kha) 30,067 30,485 30,197
Yield (t/ha) 3.17 3.27 2.33
Production (kt) 95,311 99,750 70,384
Imports (kt) 2,972 2,968 4,269
Total supply (kt) 114,344 117,219 87,590
Exports (kt) 52,044 58,032 36,845
Total Domestic Use (kt) 47,799 46,250 42,900
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 14,502 12,938 7,845
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2020-21, Canadian durum supply increased 5% year over year (y/y) to 7.3 million tonnes (Mt); exports reached a record 5.8 Mt according to STC. Canada shipped durum to over 35 countries, of which 62% was destined to Italy (24%), Algeria (20%) and Morocco (18%). The United States was the fourth largest destination accounting for 6% of total exports. Carry out stocks are reported at 0.75 Mt.

The average Saskatchewan (SK) spot price for CWAD 1, 13% was $302/tonne.

For 2021-22, Canadian durum production is forecasted by STC to decrease by 46% due to adverse weather conditions affecting yields. Yields are projected to decrease 43% to 1.62 Mt/ha, which accompanied by tight carry in stocks results in a 41% reduction in supply, compared to last year, of 4.3 Mt. This is also 42% below the last five year average and the fifth lowest on record. Exports are expected to decrease 46% as a result of lower supply. Domestic use is also projected to fall slightly, to 0.77 Mt, with a marginal reduction in both food and feed use. World pricing for durum remains strong with steady and strong demand. Given current price dynamics, exports are expected to remain relatively strong, as a result, carry out stocks are projected to decline 40% to 0.45 Mt, albeit stock-to-use ratio remains relatively steady at 11.5%.

Globally, according to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) latest report, world durum supply is forecast to decline 5% due to poor production prospects in North America and tight carry in stocks. Production is forecast at 3.2 Mt, a 20-year low, while carry in stocks are estimated at 8.1 Mt, one of the smallest in 19 years. As a result, consumption was trimmed 0.5 Mt this month to 33.8 Mt, a 1% decline y/y; trade is projected at 7.1 Mt, down 18.5%. World closing stocks are expected to contract to 6.5 Mt. US durum production is estimated to decrease 49% y/y to 0.95 Mt, with ending stocks forecast to decline 36% to 0.66 Mt, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The 2021-22 average price for CWAD 1, 13% was increased to $400/tonne for the year, supported by tight world supplies.

Durum [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,980 2,302 2,238
Area harvested (kha) 1,908 2,295 2,186
Yield (t/ha) 2.63 2.86 1.62
Production (kt) 5,017 6,571 3,545
Imports (kt) [b] 96 13 25
Total supply (kt) 6,946 7,321 4,322
Exports (kt) [c] 5,268 5,773 3,100
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 216 194 190
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 504 387 358
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 941 796 772
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 737 752 450
Average Price ($/t) [g] 270 302 400
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge), Corn (No.2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), Oats (US No. 2 Heavy, CBOT nearby futures); Rye (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Canola (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver); Flaxseed (No. 1 CW, cash, I/S Saskatoon); Soybeans (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2020-21, Canadian wheat supply was 33.5 Mt, +4% y/y. Exports reached 20.6 Mt according to STC. Wheat was shipped to over 60 countries and China was the largest destination accounting for 16% of the total volume. Other key markets included Indonesia (11%), Peru (9%), Japan (7%), Colombia (7%), Bangladesh (5%) and the United States (5%). Carry out stocks are estimated at 4.95 Mt according to STC.

The average SK CWRS 1, 13.5% averaged $271/tonne over the 2020-21 crop year.

For 2021-22, STC projects production of wheat (excluding durum) at 18.2 Mt. This is 36% below last year’s volume and 31% less than the last five year average. Total supply is projected at 23.3 Mt. Spring wheat production is estimated to fall by 40% to 15.3 Mt and winter wheat production to rise by 3% to 2.85 Mt.

Exports are forecast to fall to 12.5 Mt due to lower overall supply. Domestic use is also expected to fall marginally with a reduction in both food and feed use. With strong and steady world demand, carry out stocks are forecast to decline from this year’s levels on reduced but relatively strong exports, especially with the current strong pricing. Carry out stocks are projected at 3.5 Mt, down 29% y/y, but with the stocks/use ratio remaining relatively stable at 17.5%.

The September USDA WASDE report projects increased supplies, consumption and trade, and higher ending stocks than the previous month. World supplies were revised up to 1,073 Mt on higher-than expected stocks in North America and positive production prospects in Australia, India and China. Total global production is now forecast at 780.3 Mt, 0.6% more than 2020-21 estimates. Total use was also upgraded by 2.96 Mt to 789.63 Mt, 1% more than the previous year. Trade for 2021-22 is projected at 199.7 Mt, just marginally above last year’s levels. Ending stocks were expanded by 4.1 Mt, to 283.2 Mt, of which over 50% are held by China and not necessarily available to the world market.

For the United States, all wheat supply is forecast to drop 9% y/y to 72.8 Mt, on low beginning stocks (-17%) and reduced production of all spring wheat varieties. Production of winter wheat was not affected significantly by the drought with output of all winter wheat up 24% y/y. Domestic use is forecast to increase 6% and trade is expected to drop 12%. United States closing stocks for all wheat are forecast at 16.7 Mt, down 27% y/y.

The 2021-22 average price for CWRS 1, 13.5% is forecast to be $300/tonne.

Wheat Except Durum [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 8,145 7,892 7,254
Area harvested (kha) 7,754 7,723 6,984
Yield 3.57 3.70 2.60
Production (kt) 27,653 28,612 18,170
Imports (b) 179 100 200
Total supply (kt) 32,040 33,474 23,324
Exports (kt) [c] 19,081 20,634 12,500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,369 3,190 3,000
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,009 3,942 3,599
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 8,197 7,886 7,324
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,763 4,954 3,500
Average Price ($/t) [g] 225 271 300
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices and are not comparable to CWB pool returns for previous years.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
All Wheat [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 10,126 10,194 9,493
Area harvested (kha) 9,662 10,018 9,170
Yield (t/ha) 3.38 3.51 2.37
Production (kt) 32,670 35,183 21,715
Imports (kt) [b] 275 113 225
Total supply (kt) 38,986 40,795 27,645
Exports (kt) [c] 24,349 26,407 15,600
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 3,585 3,383 3,190
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 4,513 4,329 3,957
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 9,138 8,682 8,095
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 5,499 5,705 3,950
  • [a] Crop year is August-July
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2020-21, barley exports totaled 4.57 million tonnes (Mt), including 3.82 Mt of exports of barley grain and 0.75 Mt of exports of grain equivalent products. Exports increased significantly from 2019-20, primarily due to a significant increase in barley grain exports to China, although exports to the United States and Japan fell, based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) trade data. Canada’s barley exports to China in 2020-21 surged to 3.25 Mt, up from 1.44 Mt in the previous crop year, pushing China’s share of Canadian barley exports to more than 90%.

Barley imports for 2020-21 increased to 0.30 Mt, up sharply from 0.06 Mt last year and above 0.26 Mt in 2002-03 when Canadian barley production last suffered from severe drought. This increase was due to strong feed demand in the western provinces, particularly in Alberta, as robust exports exhausted the domestic feed barley supply.

Total domestic use decreased by 8% from last year on a drop of 11% for feed use, though the industrial use rebounded from the previous year’s low. Carry out stocks fell sharply from last crop year to 0.71 Mt, the lowest level on record. The stocks to use ratio is pegged at 6%, versus around 19% in normal years.

Canadian barley prices have been supported by strong exports, tight old crop barley stocks, growing worries about new crop barley production and strong prices of other grains. The 2020-21 average feed barley price in Lethbridge area increased to $294/t, breaking the record level of $279/t in 2012-13.

For 2021-22, Canadian producers seeded nearly 3.36 million hectares (Mha) of barley in total, according to STC’s June seeded area survey. This is 10% higher than last year's level and the highest since 2009.

Despite an increase in seeded area, 2021 barley production is projected by STC at 7.14 Mt in its September 14th production report, down 34% and 23%, respectively, from last year and the prior five year average, as yields in the Prairie provinces have been hit hard by drought and the abandonment rate is expected to be higher than last year. Nationwide, the 2021 yield is expected to be 38% and 37% lower than in 2020 and the five year average, respectively. More of the barley crop in the Prairie provinces will be cut for green feed. The prolonged drought on the Prairies has also resulted in poor pastures and rangelands, and severe hay supply shortages, causing farmers to cut poor quality crops for livestock feed.

Along with record low beginning stocks, total Canadian barley supply for 2021-22 will be severely compromised. As a result, demand will be heavily rationed lower.

The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is predicted to increase sharply from 2020-21, supported by tight beginning stocks, a pessimistic outlook about new crop production, and stronger prices of other grains.

Globally, the combined 2021 barley production for the world’s major exporting countries was projected by the USDA to decrease from 2020, though productions in Argentina and Ukraine were projected to increase. World barley imports for 2021-22 were predicted to decline on lower imports for China due to its larger-than anticipated corn production. World feed demand for barley was projected to decrease from last year, partly due to production issues in some of the world major exporting countries and an outlook for recovered corn production worldwide. World ending stocks were projected to decrease to the lowest level.

Barley [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,996 3,060 3,357
Area harvested (kha) 2,728 2,809 3,029
Yield (t/ha) 3.81 3.82 2.36
Production (kt) 10,383 10,741 7,141
Imports (kt) [b] 63 295 150
Total supply (kt) 11,308 11,992 8,002
Exports (kt) [c] 3,054 4,572 2,050
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 277 291 319
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 6,759 6,131 5,044
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 7,298 6,709 5,652
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 957 711 300
Average Price ($/t) [g] 232 294 350
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2020-21, corn imports are forecast at 1.65 Mt, a decrease of 12% from 2019-20, due to lower purchase from the United States. According to STC, Canada has imported nearly 1.51 Mt of corn for the September 2020 to July 2021 period, of which, about 43% was destined to Eastern Canada and 57% to Western Canada. Monthly imports have been stable at around 0.13 Mt.

Corn exports for 2020-21 are forecast at 1.55 Mt, increasing from 0.68 Mt last year, based on the pickup in exports to the EU from Eastern Canada. STC reports that 1.50 Mt of corn has been exported for the September 2020 to Jul 2021 period, of which, about 84% were from Eastern Canada and 16% from Western Canada. Corn exports normally slowdown in July and August.

Domestic use for 2020-21 is predicted to rise on increased feed demand. Carry out stocks are forecast to fall from the record high in the previous year.

The average price of Chatham corn for 2020-21 is expected to increase by 39% from 2019-20 to $272/t, partly underpinned by increased demand and stronger United States corn prices.

The USDA adjusted the 2020-21 US corn carry out stocks upward in its August projections, as lower exports, especially to China, which had a good 2021 corn harvest, more than offset higher food, seed and industrial use. The marketing year weighted average price received by farmers remained unchanged at US$4.40/bu from the July estimate.

Globally, the 2020-21 corn production estimate for Brazil was further cut by 1.0 Mt by the USDA, while it was lifted by 1.5 Mt for Argentina.

For 2021-22, Canadian producers seeded nearly 1.41 Mha of corn in total. This is 2% and 4%, respectively, lower than last year's level and the previous five year average.

Despite slightly lower harvested area, nationwide production is forecast to increase by 6% from 2020-21 to a record level of 14.4 Mt, mainly due to expected record high yields that reflect the favourable growing conditions in Eastern Canada. This, along with sharply increased imports to Western Canada, will lead to the highest national corn supply on record, despite lower carry in stocks. Corn imports to Western Canada are expected to increase drastically due to feed grain production problems in this region and the historically high premium of feed grain prices relative to United States corn prices. Domestic use is projected to increase due to higher industrial and feed use. Exports are predicted to decline due to the expected drop in shipments to the EU region. Carry out stocks are forecast to drop from 2020-21.

Following the forecast for a surge in the 2021-22 United States corn price, the 2021-22 corn price in the Chatham region is forecast to remain strong.

According to the USDA, world corn production in 2021-22 is forecast to reach a record high, as production in the world’s top corn producing countries, including China, is forecast to increase significantly. Demand is expected to continue to expand with a larger portion destined for the feed sector. Ending stocks will increase after four consecutive years of decline, but will remain below the previous five year average.

For the United States, the projections for 2021-22 corn acreage, yield, production, supply, ending stocks, feed and residual use, and exports were revised up by the USDA from its August projections. Compared to 2020-21, supply is only slightly higher, while total demand is slightly lower. As a result, ending stocks will be 9% higher than in 2020-21 but still 28% lower than the previous five year average. The season average farm price received by producers was pegged at US$5.45/bu, down from US$5.75/bu in the August projection but up from US$4.45/bu for 2020-21.

Corn [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,496 1,440 1,413
Area harvested (kha) 1,451 1,408 1,384
Yield (t/ha) 9.24 9.63 10.38
Production (kt) 13,404 13,563 14,368
Imports (kt) [b] 1,870 1,650 3,000
Total supply (kt) 17,254 17,773 19,468
Exports (kt) [c] 677 1,550 1,400
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,303 5,300 5,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 8,698 8,808 10,652
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 14,017 14,123 16,068
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 2,560 2,100 2,000
Average Price ($/t) [g] 195 263 275
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham).
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2020-21, oat exports totaled 2.93 Mt, including 2.0 Mt for grain exports and 0.92 Mt for grain equivalent of product exports. This is 12% higher than the total exports in 2019-20 and the highest level on record. Exports of grain to the United States, the largest destination of Canadian oats decreased slightly to 1.5 Mt. Exports to Chile surged to 0.2 Mt, making it the second largest destination of Canadian oats.

Total domestic use for 2020-21 decreased by 10% from last year, mainly due to lower feed use. Carry-out stocks increased by 55% to 0.66 Mt, close to the previous five-year average.

Oat prices in North America have been supported by tight oat stocks, growing worries about new oat crop production and strong prices of other grains. The 2020-21 average Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) oat futures price sat at $301/t, a 10% increase from 2019-20, making it the highest level on record.

For 2021-22, Canadian producers seeded nearly 1.39 Mha of oats in total. This is 11% below last year's level, but 2% above the previous five-year average.

According to STC, oat production is projected at 2.58 Mt, down 44% and 33%, respectively, from last year and the prior five-year average. This is due to sharply lower yield forecasts and a higher abandonment rate in the Prairie provinces, compared to last year. The sharp decrease in production will result in total supply at 3.25 Mt, 35% and 28% lower than in 2020-21 and the previous five-year average, despite carry-in stocks at a normal level. Accordingly, total demand, including exports and domestic use, is anticipated to drop sharply. Carry-out stocks are expected to be close to a record low.

The average price of oats for 2021-22 is forecast to increase significantly due to the projected sharply lower supply and carry-out stocks. The forecasts for stronger 2021-22 prices of other grains will also support oat prices.

Globally, 2021 oat production in the world’s major exporting countries was projected by the USDA to decrease from 2020. However, the EU will still have a large oat crop. For the US, 2021 oat production was predicted to decline by 37%. Imports were forecast to drop by 13%. Ending stocks were predicted to decrease by 28% and 33%, respectively, from last year and the five-year average.

Oats [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,459 1,554 1,385
Area harvested (kha) 1,171 1,314 1,128
Yield (t/ha) 3.61 3.48 2.29
Production (kt) 4,227 4,576 2,579
Imports (kt) [b] 13 16 15
Total supply (kt) 4,637 5,018 3,252
Exports (kt) [c] 2,615 2,928 1,800
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 143 141 140
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,324 1,175 982
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 1,597 1,431 1,252
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 426 659 200
Average Price ($/t) [g] 274 301 360
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2020-21, rye exports decreased to 150 Kt, down 9% from the previous year. More than 98% of the exports were destined to the United States, making Canada’s share of the United States rye imports at 61%.

Total domestic demand increased significantly from the previous year due to strong industrial use and feed consumption. Carry out stocks expanded notably due to amply supply, but remain lower than the five-year average.

Rye prices increased slightly from 2019-20, due to a rebound in demand and price rallies in other crops.

For 2021-22, Canadian producers seeded 245 thousand hectares (Kha) of rye in total. This is 4% and 40%, respectively, higher than last year's level and the previous five-year average.

Nationwide production is forecast at 412 Kt, about 16% lower than 2020-21, as a notable increase in seeded area will be largely offset by drastically lower yields in the Prairie Provinces. Supply is forecast at 486 Kt, decreasing from 2020-21. Domestic use (mostly for feed use), exports and carry out stocks will decline, following lower supply. The 2021-22 average price is forecast to increase slightly due to support from price gains in other crops.

World 2021 rye production was projected by the USDA to decrease from 2020. For the United States, 2021 rye production was predicted to increase. Imports for 2021-22 are projected at 152 Kt, down 38% from 244 Kt in 2020-21.

Rye [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 175 237 245
Area harvested (kha) 103 153 160
Yield (t/ha) 3.25 3.19 2.58
Production (kt) 333 488 412
Imports (kt) [b] 3 2 2
Total supply (kt) 386 530 486
Exports (kt) [c] 165 150 140
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 19 41 44
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 140 245 221
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 180 308 285
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 40 72 60
Average Price ($/t) [g] 221 225 230
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Mixed Grains [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 145 168 132
Area harvested (kha) 68 97 41
Yield (t/ha) 2.84 2.41 2.84
Production (kt) 192 233 117
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 192 233 117
Exports (kt) [c] 0 0 0
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 0 0 0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 192 233 117
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 192 233 117
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 0 0 0
  • [a] August-July crop year
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Coarse Grains: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area Seeded 6,271 6,459 6,533
Area harvested (kha) 5,520 5,780 5,742
Yield (t/ha) 5.17 5.12 4.29
Production (kt) 28,539 29,601 24,618
Imports (kt) [b] 1,950 1,963 3,167
Total supply (kt) 33,777 35,546 31,326
Exports (kt) [c] 6,510 9,200 5,390
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 5,743 5,772 5,903
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 17,113 16,591 17,017
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 23,284 22,804 23,375
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,982 3,542 2,560
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2020-21, Canada crushed a record 10.4 Mt of canola compared to the 10.1 Mt processed the previous year and the 5-year average of 9.2 Mt. Canadian exports of canola were the 3rd highest on record at 10.5 Mt, versus the 10.0 Mt shipped out of the country a year ago and the 5-year average of 10.3 Mt. Ending stocks were 1.8 Mt for a stocks to use ratio of 8% compared to 3.4 Mt and 16%, respectively, a year ago. The modern day low carry-out was 0.59 Mt in 2012-13 while the record high carry-out occurred in 2018-19 at 4.4 Mt. For the crop year, the simple average price track Vancouver was $730/t, versus $484/t for 2019-20 and the 5-year average of $556/t.

For 2021-22, production is estimated at a 13 year low of 12.8 Mt on a seeded and harvested area of 9.1 Mha and 9.0 Mha respectively. Yields at 1.4 t/ha are the lowest since 2003-04 and are 39% below last year and the 5-year average, respectively. By province, Manitoba canola production is estimated at 2.5 Mt, Saskatchewan 5.8 Mt and Alberta 4.3 Mt. Canadian supplies are estimated at 14.7 Mt, the lowest since the 2008-09 crop year, on a combination of tight carry-in stocks, reduced output and modest imports. Canola supplies were 23.0 Mt in 2020-21 and the 5-year average is 23.1 Mt.

Canadian exports are forecast to fall 38% from last year to 6.5 Mt on tight Canadian supplies and strong world demand. Similarly, domestic crush is forecast to decline from last year’s record of 10.4 Mt to 7.5 Mt as supplies are rationed among users. Ending stocks are forecast to tighten to 0.50 Mt, with 0.3 Mt in commercial position and 0.2 Mt stored on farm, for a stocks to use ratio of 4%. Tight canola stocks combined with strong US soyoil prices are forecast to support a canola price of $940/t for 2021-22, compared to $730/t in 2020-21 and the 5-year average of $556/t.

This outlook contains a significantly higher than normal degree of uncertainty given the expansion in world vegetable oil consumption and the adverse growing conditions across different growing regions over the past year. Volatility for canola prices is expected to remain high over the next several months with the market remaining vulnerable to a sharp correction from either a demand or supply shock.

Canola [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 8,572 8,410 9,097
Area harvested (kha) 8,471 8,325 9,002
Yield (t/ha) 2.35 2.34 1.42
Production (kt) 19,912 19,485 12,782
Imports (kt) [b] 155 123 150
Total supply (kt) 24,502 23,042 14,699
Exports (kt) [c] 10,040 10,534 6,500
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 10,129 10,410 7,500
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 838 265 148
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 11,028 10,741 7,699
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 3,435 1,767 500
Average Price ($/t) [g] 484 730 940
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Canola (No.1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2020-21, domestic use of flaxseed decreased significantly to 0.09 Mt on a sharp drop in feed, waste and dockage from 0.15 Mt last year to 0.09 Mt. Exports were 0.52 Mt, mostly to China and the European Union, an increase of 48% from the 2019-20 crop year. Ending stocks are 57,300 tonnes, down from 63,600 tonnes last year, with 25,000 tonnes located on farm and 32,300 tonnes in commercial position. The simple average price for flaxseed, par region Saskatoon was $693/t versus $518/t for 2019-20 and the 5-year average of $476/t.

For 2021-22, flaxseed production is estimated at 0.38 Mt, a 19 year low, on a seeded and harvested area of 0.42 Mha and 0.40 Mha respectively. Yields are estimated at 0.95 t/ha compared to 1.56 t/ha for 2020-21 and the 5-year average of 1.5 t/ha. Flaxseed supplies are estimated at 0.45 Mt on the decline in carry-in stocks and production, combined with modest imports. Supplies are 33% below last year and 37% under the 5-year average.

Exports are forecast down 28% from 2020-21, to 0.38 Mt, as Canada is forced to ration sales to its traditional Chinese, European and United States customers. Total domestic use is forecast to fall by 44% to 51,100 tonne (t) on lower feed, waste and dockage. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 65% to 20,000 t, with 5,000 t remaining on farm and 15,000 t in commercial position. Flaxseed prices are forecast to rise to $875/t on steady world demand and reduced production in Canada and Kazakhstan.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 379 377 415
Area harvested (kha) 339 371 400
Yield (t/ha) 1.43 1.56 0.95
Production (kt) 486 578 379
Imports (kt) [b] 22 26 10
Total supply (kt) 568 668 446
Exports (kt) [c] 350 519 375
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] N/A N/A N/A
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 138 73 31
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 154 92 51
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 64 57 20
Average Price ($/t) [g] 518 693 875
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Flaxseed (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • n/a: not available
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Soybeans

For 2020-21, domestic usage is forecast to decline by 17% to about 2.4 Mt, as a sharp drop in feed, waste and dockage offsets a modest rise in crush to 1.8 Mt. By contrast, exports increased by 29% to 4.6 Mt on a combination of strong world demand and large supplies of domestic soybeans.

Ending stocks are estimated at 0.4 Mt, little changed from last year. Prices ended the crop year sharply higher at $605/t versus $419/t last year and the 5-year average of $430/t.

For 2021-22, production is estimated at 5.9 Mt on a planted and harvested area of about 2.15 Mha and 2.14 Mha, respectively. Yields are estimated at 2.75 t/ha, down slightly from the 3.1 t/ha for 2020-21 but similar to the 5-year average of 2.82 t/ha. Total supply is forecast to decrease to 6.7 Mt (7.4 Mt last year) on lower production, stable imports and lower carry in stocks. The tightening of supplies is forecast to result in a 13% decline in exports to 4.0 Mt despite strong world demand. Domestic processing is forecast stable at 1.8 Mt while carry out stocks fall to 0.35 Mt. Soybean prices are forecast to decline modestly to $595/t, in line with US prices.

For 2021-22, the USDA loosened its US soybean situation slightly following a series of rains across key eastern and northern plain growing regions. In the September release of the WASDE, soybean yields were raised by 0.6 bu/ac as the eastern half of the US experiences significantly better growing conditions than the western half. With minor changes to domestic use and exports, ending stocks were raised slightly, but still remain historically tight at 185 Mbu. The farm gate price for soybeans was lowered to US$12.90 a bushel compared to US$13.70 for the August release.

Looking ahead, the factors to watch are:

  • (1) US and Canadian harvest weather conditions,
  • (2) North American harvest pace,
  • (3) price volatility,
  • (4) rate of expansion of the biodiesel and renewable diesel sectors,
  • (5) South American planting intentions, and
  • (6) Chinese import demand.
Soybeans [a] : September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 2,313 2,052 2,153
Area harvested (kha) 2,271 2,041 2,139
Yield (t/ha) 2.71 3.12 2.75
Production (kt) 6,145 6,359 5,886
Imports (kt) [b] 242 400 400
Total supply (kt) 7,087 7,385 6,686
Exports (kt) [c] 3,577 4,600 4,000
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 1,742 1,800 1,800
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 930 385 336
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 2,884 2,385 2,336
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 626 400 350
Average Price ($/t) [g] 419 605 595
  • [a] Crop year is September-August.
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • [g] Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham)
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Oilseeds : September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 11,263 10,839 11,665
Area harvested (kha) 11,081 10,738 11,541
Yield (t/ha) 2.40 2.46 1.65
Production (kt) 26,543 26,421 19,047
Imports (kt) [b] 419 549 560
Total supply (kt) 32,157 31,094 21,831
Exports (kt) [c] 13,966 15,653 10,875
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 11,871 12,210 9,300
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 1,905 723 515
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 14,066 13,217 10,086
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 4,124 2,224 870
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada
Total Grains and Oilseeds : September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 27,660 27,491 27,691
Area harvested (kha) 26,263 26,536 26,453
Yield (t/ha) 3.34 3.44 2.47
Production (kt) 87,752 91,205 65,379
Imports (kt) [b] 2,643 2,624 3,952
Total supply (kt) 104,919 107,435 80,802
Exports (kt) [c] 44,825 51,260 31,865
Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] 21,198 21,365 18,393
Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) 23,531 21,643 21,489
Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] 46,488 44,703 41,557
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 13,606 11,471 7,380
  • [b] Imports exclude products.
  • [c] Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products.
  • [d] Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association.
  • [e] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2020-21, exports were lower than the 2019-20 level at 3.6 million tonnes (Mt) despite record shipments to China. This was offset by lower exports to Bangladesh and India. Domestic use was higher compared to the previous year. The average dry pea price was $340/t, rising sharply from 2019-20, despite lower exports which led to an increase in carry-out stocks in 2020-21. The average crop year prices for yellow and feed peas were higher than for the previous year but prices were lower than 2019-20 for green pea types.

For 2021-22, Canadian dry pea production in Canada is estimated by STC to fall by 45% from 2020-21, to 2.5 Mt, due to lower yields. Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to account for 52% and 39% of the dry pea production, respectively, with the remainder in Manitoba, British Columbia and Eastern Canada. As a result, total supply is forecast to fall sharply despite higher carry in stocks. Exports are forecast to be rationed to 2.3 Mt, with China, the US and Bangladesh continuing to be Canada’s top markets. Carry out stocks are forecast to fall. The average price is expected to be sharply higher than 2020-21, at a record $580/t, due to lower world supply and decreased carry-out stocks in Canada.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA to fall by 3% from 2020-21, to just below 1.0 million acres. This is largely due to an expected fall in area in North Dakota. With higher abandonment and lower yields, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to fall 44% to 551 Kt. The major US export markets for dry peas, were China, Canada, the Philippines and Yemen.

Dry Peas [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,753 1,722 1,546
Area harvested (kha) 1,711 1,685 1,508
Yield (t/ha) 2.48 2.73 1.68
Production (kt) 4,237 4,594 2,527
Imports (kt) [b] 82 82 90
Total supply (kt) 4,631 4,910 3,095
Exports (b) 3,709 3,580 2,300
Total Domestic Use (c) 689 851 745
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 233 479 50
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 5% 11% 2%
Average Price (d) 265 340 580
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2020-21, lentil exports fell to 2.3 Mt, down 15% from the record set the previous year. Of this, 1.5 Mt were red lentil types, with 0.8 Mt consisting of the green lentil types. The leading export markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use was higher than the previous year at under 0.5 Mt. Carry-out stocks rose sharply to 0.4 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was significantly higher than 2019-20. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained a crop year premium of $135/t over No.1 red lentil prices.

For 2021-22, lentil production is estimated to fall by 37% to 1.8 Mt due to lower yields. Seeded area rose marginally, but below average yields are expected, with the majority of the decrease being red lentil types. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 90% of the lentil production and 10% in Alberta. With the sharp fall in production, total supply is forecast to fall only 28% due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower at 1.9 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease sharply to below 0.1 Mt. The average price for all grades is forecast to be significantly higher than 2020-21 at a record $1,000/t, due to lower carry out stocks and expectations for a decrease in world supply.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA at over 0.7 million acres, 35% higher than 2020-21, due to higher area seeded in Montana and North Dakota. However, with lower yields and higher abandonment, US lentil production is forecast by USDA at below 0.3 Mt, down 31% from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, Mexico and the EU, particularly Spain.

Lentils [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 1,530 1,713 1,743
Area harvested (kha) 1,489 1,705 1,714
Yield (t/ha) 1.60 1.68 1.05
Production (kt) 2,382 2,868 1,802
Imports (kt) [b] 90 114 75
Total supply (kt) 3,327 3,190 2,283
Exports (b) 2,734 2,326 1,900
Total Domestic Use (c) 384 459 333
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 209 406 50
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 7% 15% 2%
Average Price (d) 485 645 1,000
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021 which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry beans

For 2020-21, dry bean exports were slightly higher than 2019-20 at a record 0.4 Mt. The EU and the US were the top two markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Angola, Japan and Mexico. A stronger exchange rate and a record North American crop provided the majority of the pressure on Canadian dry bean prices in 2020-21.

For 2021-22, Canadian production is forecast to fall by 28% to 0.35 Mt, due to a decrease in seeded area and lower yields, mostly in Manitoba. By province, Manitoba is expected to account for 41% of the dry bean production, Ontario 29% and Alberta 27%, with the remainder in Saskatchewan. Total supply is expected to decrease by only 5%, due to large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be similar or marginally higher than the previous year. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to rise to a record $1,090/t, due to lower expected supply in North America.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 16% to below 1.5 million acres, largely due to lower area seeded in North Dakota and Nebraska. Total US dry bean production for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA to fall below 1.1 Mt, 29% lower than in 2020-21.

Dry Beans [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 160 185 173
Area harvested (kha) 150 183 168
Yield (t/ha) 2.11 2.68 2.09
Production (kt) 317 490 352
Imports (kt) [b] 75 63 75
Total supply (kt) 442 578 547
Exports (b) 361 395 400
Total Domestic Use (c) 56 63 62
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 25 120 85
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 6% 26% 18%
Average Price (d) 985 930 1,090
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2020-21, Canadian chickpea exports rose from the previous year to 150 thousand tonnes (Kt). Increased demand from Pakistan and the US were behind the rise in exports. As a result of the larger supply and despite an increase in exports, carry-out stocks rose from the previous year. The average price increased sharply, despite an increase in world supply for all chickpea types.

For 2021-22, production is forecast to fall significantly to 64 Kt, due to decreased area and sharply lower average yields. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 78% of the chickpea production, with 22% in Alberta. Total supply is forecast to fall by only 23% to 0.39 Mt due to large carry in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower than 2020-21, however carry-out stocks are expected to decrease for the first time in 5 years. The average price is forecast to rise sharply to $985/t due to expectations for a smaller world chickpea supply.

US chickpea area for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA to rise by 39% to 0.38 million acres. With lower yields and higher abandonment, 2021-22 US chickpea production is forecast by USDA at 138 kt, down 29% from the previous year. The main export markets are Pakistan, the EU and Canada.

Chickpeas [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 159 121 75
Area harvested (kha) 156 120 72
Yield (t/ha) 1.61 1.79 0.89
Production (kt) 252 214 64
Imports (kt) [b] 48 42 45
Total supply (kt) 440 506 389
Exports (b) 105 150 135
Total Domestic Use (c) 85 77 84
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 250 280 170
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 132% 124% 78%
Average Price (d) 490 640 985
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2020-21, Canadian mustard exports were mostly unchanged at 111 Kt, similar to the previous year, as lower export demand from the US was offset by higher demand from the EU. This, combined with lower supply, resulted in carry out stocks falling to 40 kt, the lowest in 5 years. Prices rose sharply for all mustard seed types, due to support from tightening domestic stocks.

For 2021-22, production is estimated at 71 Kt, lower than last year due to a sharp fall in yields, as seeded area was higher. Supply is expected to be 29% lower at 0.12 Mt, as lower carry in stocks combine with the decrease in output. Exports are expected to be rationed to 75 Kt, with the US and the EU as the main markets for Canadian mustard seed. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall sharply. The average price is forecast to rise sharply from 2020-21 to a record $1,200/t.

Mustard Seed [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 161 104 124
Area harvested (kha) 155 101 119
Yield (t/ha) 0.87 0.98 0.60
Production (kt) 135 99 71
Imports (kt) [b] 7 6 7
Total supply (kt) 214 166 118
Exports (b) 112 111 75
Total Domestic Use (c) 42 15 38
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 61 40 5
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 39% 32% 4%
Average Price (d) 700 885 1,200
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2020-21, exports were lower than the previous year at 158 Kt. This was due to higher exports to Mexico being offset by lower demand from the Middle East. The average price increased by $60/t, to $690/t despite higher Canadian carry-out stocks.

For 2021-22, production is estimated at 112 Kt, down 37% from last year, due to lower yields and higher abandonment. Supply is forecast to decrease by 28%, buffered by higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be limited by supply, with the EU and Mexico as the main markets, followed by Brazil and the US. The average price is forecast to increase significantly from 2020-21 to a record $1,060/t.

Canary Seed [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 118 111 127
Area harvested (kha) 115 110 123
Yield (t/ha) 1.52 1.62 0.91
Production (kt) 175 178 112
Imports (kt) [b] 0 0 0
Total supply (kt) 186 193 139
Exports (b) 161 158 125
Total Domestic Use (c) 10 9 9
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 15 26 5
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 9% 16% 4%
Average Price (d) 630 690 1,060
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2020-21, sunflower seed exports were higher at 52 Kt due to increased demand from the US. Despite this, carry-out stocks rose slightly. The total average Canadian price for sunflower seed increased marginally from the previous year due to higher oilseed type prices.

For 2021-22, production is estimated at 77 Kt, 24% lower than last year, as the decrease in seeded area combines with below-average yields. With supply expected to fall by 10%, exports are forecast to be reduced to 45 Kt. The US remains Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. As a result of the decrease in supply, carry out stocks are forecast to fall to 100 Kt. Sunflower seed prices are forecast to rise, to a record $790/t with higher prices for oil and confectionery types.

For 2021-22, area seeded to sunflower seed in the US is forecast by the USDA at 1.38 million acres, down 20% from 2020-21, due to lower area seeded in North and South Dakota. The area seeded is expected to fall to 1.25 and 0.13 million acres, respectively for oil type varieties and confectionery type varieties. Assuming lower yields and higher abandonment, 2021-22 US sunflower seed production is forecast by AAFC to fall sharply to just above 0.9 Mt.

For 2021-22, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at a record 63 Mt, which is 14% higher than last year, due higher production in the former Soviet Union and the EU. World exports are expected to rise by 29% and domestic use is expected to increase by 13% to a record 56 Mt. Despite this, world carry-out stocks are expected to rise to 2.6 Mt, up 11% from the previous year.

Sunflower Seed [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 31 45 41
Area harvested (kha) 29 45 40
Yield (t/ha) 2.18 2.25 1.92
Production (kt) 63 101 77
Imports (kt) [b] 26 36 25
Total supply (kt) 186 241 218
Exports (b) 37 52 45
Total Domestic Use (c) 45 73 73
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 103 116 100
Stocks-to-Use Ratio 125% 93% 85%
Average Price (d) 615 620 790
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • [d] Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2020-2021[f] which are STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)
Total Pulses and Special Crops [a]: September 24, 2021
  2019-2020 2020-2021[f] 2021-2022[f]
Area seeded (kha) 3,912 4,000 3,827
Area harvested (kha) 3,804 3,949 3,744
Yield (t/ha) 1.99 2.16 1.34
Production (kt) 7,559 8,545 5,005
Imports (kt) [b] 328 344 317
Total supply (kt) 9,425 9,784 6,788
Exports (b) 7,219 6,771 4,980
Total Domestic Use (c) 1,311 1,547 1,343
Carry-out Stocks (kt) 896 1,467 465
  • [a] Crop year is August-July.
  • [b] Imports and exports exclude products.
  • [c] Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Total domestic use is calculated residually.
  • kha: kilohectares
  • t/ha: tonnes per hectare
  • kt: kilotonnes
  • $/t: dollars per tonne
  • f: forecasts by AAFC and STC
  • Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.