Sector Trend Analysis – Packaged food trends in Canada

Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.

Executive summary

Canada's population at an estimate of 38.9 million in 2023, has historically increased by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2% over the last decade (2013 to 2023), and is expected to slow in growth by 0.7% over the forecast period (2023 to 2033) - despite a high increase in immigrants welcomed to the country until 2025. The country's urban population at 32.4 million in 2023, which has increased by a CAGR of 1.3% (2018 to 2023) is forecast to remain relatively stable over the next 10 years (+0.9%); reaching a total of 35.8 million, accounting for 83.4% of the country's total population in 2033.

The top 10 largest urban cities in Canada accounted for just shy of half of the population (48.1%) in 2023. Toronto is the biggest city at approximately 6.0 million people, followed by Montréal (4.0 million) and Vancouver (2.6 million) over the year.

Canada was the 10th largest global exporter of processed or value-added packaged agri-food and seafood products at exports of Can$48.0 billion, representing a trade surplus of Can$14.0 billion with imports from the world at Can$34.0 billion in 2022. The top five exported commodities in 2022, were bread and bakery products, low erucic acid canola oil (excluding crude), and fresh or chilled bovine meat (boneless) with total exports of value-added agri-food and seafood growing by a CAGR of 10.4% (2018 to 2022).

In 2023, retail sales of packaged food in Canada totaled Can$77.6 billion in current prices. Top categories with the highest sales included dairy (Can$16.6 billion), baked goods (Can$11.2 billion), and meals and soups (Can$9.1 billion). Common trends within all packaged food categories are focused around products that target the 'healthy-consciousness' consumer that consist of natural, fortified or functional ingredients. Plant-based or high in protein products are becoming high in demand, as well.

Price-sensitivity is of utmost importance, as food inflation in the country reached an all-time high in early 2023, and of which is expected to remain high for the unforeseeable future. Convenience, intriguing or culturally-inspired offerings are key factors to help maintain high demand and interest in the food or drink industry. E-commerce platforms have played a vital role in supporting retailers during lockdown periods, which have continued to gain a much higher retailer market share amongst all distribution channels in recent years.

 

Consumer profile

"Canada's population is projected to experience a substantial growth, driven by the government's ambitious immigration targets, aimed at welcoming 500,000 immigrant's annually until 2025.Footnote 1".

In 2022, Canada's population reached 38.9 million and has grew at a slow rate by a CAGR of 1.2% over the last decade (2013-2023). This population consisted of approximately 7.3 million of children under the age of 17, 14.2 million of young and middle youth adults (aged 18-44), 10.1 million of mid-lifers (aged 45-64), and 7.3 million of later lifers and seniors (aged 65+) in 2022. Canada's urban population accounted for 81.7% with the remainder 18.3% of the population residing in rural regions over last year.

Toronto has the largest urban population at 5.9 million people, accounting for 15.2% of the total population throughout Canada, followed by Montreal (10.1%), Vancouver (6.7%), Calgary (3.5%), and Edmonton (3.1%) in 2022. Out of the ten most populated urban regions in Canada, the National capital region (Ottawa - Gatineau) accounting for 2.7% of the total population in 2022, and is expected to increase at one of the highest CAGR by 1.0% (2022-2032) - along with a higher population growth in London - Ontario (1.2%) and Vancouver (1.0%).

Canada's population by main urban cities, 2022 to 2032

Rank

Cities

Population ('000) in 2022

Population ('000) in 2023

Population ('000) in 2032

CAGR* % 2022-2032

Total - rural population

7,106.2

7,186.5

7,137.0

0.04

Total - urban population

31,823.7

32,422.4

35,436.8

1.1

1

Toronto

5,908.0

5,951.3

6,398.9

0.7

2

Montreal

3,943.7

3,972.6

4,270.5

0.7

3

Vancouver

2,593.0

2,624.4

2,888.5

1.0

4

Calgary

1,362.1

1,372.4

1,477.2

0.7

5

Edmonton

1,204.6

1,216.4

1,323.9

0.9

6

Ottawa - Gatineau

1,069.6

1,083.2

1,195.6

1.0

7

Hamilton

792.1

799.4

867.3

0.8

8

Winnipeg

783.6

790.5

856.3

0.8

9

Quebec

776.2

781.3

836.4

0.7

10

London - Ontario

443.6

450.9

506.5

1.2

Subtotal - urban population (top 10)

18,876.5

19,042.4

20,621.1

0.8

Total - Canadian population

38,929.9

39,608.9

42,888.5

0.9

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

In 2022, out of approximately 15.3 million households, Canada's average household size was 2.5 persons with an average of 0.5 children per household. Single persons represented the largest demographic by 29.5%, followed by couples without children (25.6%), couples with children (25.1%), other blended families (11.1%), and single-parent families (8.7%). Home owners accounted for 63.9% of the population and 34.6% were renters living in apartments in 2022.

The median age of population was 41.0 in Canada in 2022. In Canada, the average gross income of population (aged 15+) was Can$66,952.1 with an annual median disposable income per household of Can$76,637.2 in 2022. The total Canadian average gross income was the lowest at Can$27,172.9 of population (aged 15-19) and on average peaked at Can$86,972.8 of population (aged 45-49). In Canada, middle class households consisted of 32.1% of the population. Out of a workforce of 84.4% of the total population (32.9 million people) in 2022, Canadians (Social Class C) bringing in a salary between (100-150%) of the average gross income (up to Can$100,428.2) accounted for 21.2% of the population, while 32.1% (Social Class D) made between (50-100% avg. income), and 26.5% (Social Class E) made less than 50% of average salary per year (<Can$33,476.1). On the upper end, 11.3% (Social Class B) of the population made a salary between (150-200% avg. income) and 8.8% of the population (Social Class A) made over 200% of average salary per year (>Can$133,904.2).

Exports

Canada was the 10th largest exporter of value-added processed packaged food and seafood products at a total value of Can$48.0 billion and a global market share of 3.6% in 2022. Canada is a net exporter of processed agri-food and seafood products with 2022 imports from the world at Can$34.0 billion, representing a trade surplus of Can$14.0 billion.

Canada's processed agri-food and seafood exports increased by a CAGR of 10.4% between 2018 and 2022. The top five exported commodities in 2022 at a total of Can$16.1 billion (33.4%) were bread and bakery products at Can$4.4 billion (9.1%), low erucic acid canola oil, excluding crude at Can$4.3 billion (8.9%), fresh or chilled bovine meat, boneless at Can$2.8 billion (5.9%), canola meal at Can$2.5 billion (5.2%), and Frozen French fries at Can$2.1 billion (4.3%). Key exporter countries over last year were the United States (Can$37.4 billion), China (Can$2.4 billion), Japan (Can$2.1 billion), Mexico (Can$1.4 billion), and the European Union (Can$931.6 million).

Retail sales - packaged food

In 2023, retail sales of packaged food products in Canada totalled Can$77.6 billion. Top categories with the highest sales included dairy (Can$16.6 billion), baked goods (Can$11.2 billion), meals and soups (Can$9.1 billion), and within the snacks category was savoury snacks (Can$6.6 billion). Albeit, categories that registered the highest 5-year compound annual growth rates (2018-2023) were plant-based dairy (9.4%) and edible oils (9.0%).

All packaged food categories, overall managed to recover during the post-COVID-19 period and registered moderate positive CAGRs between 2018 and 2023. Nevertheless, all categories are expected to slow down in growth mostly contributable to fluctuations in price hikes - at the exception of the baby food category, predicted to rebound once both manufacturers and the government works collaboratively together to address previous global supply chain challenges. Additionally, as Canadians return physically back to work and socialize in public more, snacks such as ice cream (CAGR: 6.3%), confectionery (5.5%), and sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks (4.3%) are forecast to grow (2023-2028) over historic values.

Retail sales in Canada - packaged food products, historical and forecast using current prices, Can$ millions

Category

2018

2023

CAGR* % 2018-2023

2024

2028

CAGR* % 2023-2028

Total - packaged foods

58,461.1

77,578.3

5.8

80,861.7

97,401.1

4.7

Cooking ingredients and meals

11,358.0

15,551.8

6.5

16,297.6

20,595.6

5.8

Edible oils

489.7

752.4

9.0

774.4

897.3

3.6

Meals and soups

6,488.1

9,147.9

7.1

9,631.4

12,674.9

6.7

Sauces, dips and condiments

3,637.8

4,686.9

5.2

4,902.4

5,876.4

4.6

Sweet spreads

742.4

964.5

5.4

989.5

1,146.9

3.5

Dairy products and alternatives

14,068.1

18,044.3

5.1

18,939.4

22,870.7

4.9

Baby food

641.6

704.6

1.9

720.7

826.2

3.2

Dairy

12,974.1

16,630.5

5.1

17,457.9

21,033.5

4.8

Plant-based dairy

452.4

709.3

9.4

760.8

1,011.0

7.3

Staple Foods

19,644.7

26,331.3

6.0

26,930.4

30,614.5

3.1

Baked goods

7,985.1

11,199.3

7.0

11,504.2

13,082.6

3.2

Breakfast cereals

1,377.1

1,700.2

4.3

1,719.9

1,839.3

1.6

Processed fruit and vegetables

2,119.4

2,812.5

5.8

2,854.1

3,241.1

2.9

Processed meat, seafood and alternatives

6,644.7

8,516.2

5.1

8,709.2

9,938.0

3.1

Rice, pasta and noodles

1,518.4

2,103.2

6.7

2,143.1

2,513.5

3.6

Snacks

13,390.3

17,650.9

5.7

18,694.3

23,320.3

5.7

Confectionery

4,544.8

5,866.0

5.2

6,223.9

7,666.6

5.5

Ice cream

1,553.2

2,071.9

5.9

2,198.1

2,813.5

6.3

Savoury snacks

4,759.8

6,620.1

6.8

7,034.0

9,014.9

6.4

Sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks

2,532.5

3,092.9

4.1

3,238.3

3,825.3

4.3

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

In 2023, leading retail companies (and top brands) in the packaged food category in Canada included Saputo Inc. (Dairyland, Neilson, Saputo) at a value of Can$3.6 billion and a 4.6% value share, PepsiCo Inc. (Tostitos, Quaker, Harvest Crunch) at Can$3.3 billion (4.3%), and the Kraft Heinz Company (Kraft, Heinz, Classico) at Can$3.2 billion (4.2%). Private labelled brands accounted for 13.0% at sales of Can$10.1 billion, with artisanal companies accounting for 5.0% (Can$3.8 billion) in 2023.

Top 10 companies and associated brands in the packaged food sector in Canada, 2023 by main category, company share

Company

Top brand(s)

Retail sales value (Can$ million)

Market share %

Total - market share

77,578.3

100.0

Saputo Inc.

Dairyland, Neilson, Saputo, Armstrong, Alexis de Portneuf, Stella, Nutrilait, Fraser Valley, Milk 2 Go, JOYYA, Vachon

3,600.6

4.6

PepsiCo Inc.

Tostitos, Quaker, Harvest Crunch, Lay's, Doritos, Ruffles, Miss Vickie's, Smartfood, Fritos, Rold Gold, Stacy's Pita Chips, Twistos, Hickory Sticks, Cheetos, Crispy Minis, Cracker Jack, Chester's

3,300.7

4.3

Kraft Heinz Company

Kraft, Heinz, Classico, Crave, Philadelphia, Miracle Whip, Catelli, HP, Renée's, Bull's Eye, Diana Sauce

3,240.8

4.2

Lactalis, Groupe

Lactancia, Beatrice, Black Diamond, Iögo, Cracker Barrel, Astro, P'tit Quebec, Balderson, Cheez Whiz, Olympic, AMOOza!, Astro BioBest

3,218.9

4.1

Agropur Co-operative Agro-Alimentaire

Sealtest, L'Extra, Natrel, Quebon, OKA

2,596.2

3.3

Maple Leaf Foods Inc.

Schneiders, Maple Leaf, Maple Lodge, Lightlife

2,324.8

3.0

Mondelez International Inc.

Cadbury (Dairy Milk), Ritz, Oreo, Premium, Halls, Chips Ahoy!, Trident/Dirol, Dentyne, Christie, Wheat Thins, Triscuit, Petit Beurre, Stride, Jet-Puffed, Toblerone, Clif, Peak Freans, Petit Ecolier, Maynard's, Trebor

1,917.0

2.5

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV

Demptster's, Vachon, Stonemill

1,674.9

2.2

Danone, Groupe

Activia, Danone, Silk, Actimel, International Delight, Danino

1,248.0

1.6

Nestlé SA

Stouffer's, Delissio, Market Place Cuisine, Coffee-mate, Gerber, Nestlé, Kit Kat, Drumstick, Coffee Crisp, Favourites, Smarties, Good North, Aero, Parlour, Polar, Black Magic, After Eight, Real Dairy, Sundae

1,235.2

1.6

Private label

Private label

10,061.6

13.0

Artisanal

Artisanal

3,846.5

5.0

Others

Others

13,764.0

17.7

Subtotal - top ten companies

52,029.2

67.1

Source: Euromonitor, 2023

Dairy products and alternatives

Retail sales

In 2023, dairy in Canada totalled Can$16.6 billion or 92.2% of the dairy products and alternatives category, growing by a CAGR of 5.1% between 2018 and 2023. Cheese was the largest subsector within the dairy category increasing to Can$6.8 billion (41.2%), followed by drinking milk products dropping to Can$3.2 billion (19.2%), yoghurt and sour milk products increasing to Can$2.7 billion (16.0%), and butter and spreads increasing to Can$2.0 billion (12.0%) in 2023.

With the Canadian landscape registering its highest levels of inflation in recent years, marking notable food price increases that reached unprecedented heights in 2022 and into 2023, dairy products and alternatives were substantially hit with butter and spreads, as well as baby food, leading in terms of price escalation. As a result, many Canadian consumers looked for more affordable options like private label offerings, despite seeing a slight decline in prices in 2023.Footnote 1

While there was a decrease in drinking milk products from 2022 to 2023 (−3.4%), plant-based dairy has sustained its growth forecast into 2023. Trends in plant-based 'beyond milk alternatives' (alongside meat alternatives) have continued to gain traction, whereby plant-based cheese and yoghurt have also, expanded and have both experienced rapid growth. Many plant-based dairy players are vying for a competitive edge with the introduction of new product development innovations helping to expand the category, which in turn offers consumers an array of choices that are becoming more readily available in smaller grocery stores to larger establishments. Innovations in other dairy products are being introduced in efforts to re-engage consumers and inject novelty into well-established product segments such as offerings of immune-supportive and vitamin-enriched drinking yoghurt, shredded cheese with bacon, and the launch of butter balls. As the health-conscious trend is magnified more so post-COVID-19, manufacturers are aiming to steer away from high sugar content and are embracing healthier alternatives like higher fat butter and full-fat products, along with prioritizing clean labelling.Footnote 1

During the forecast period (2023-2028) in Canada, the dairy is expected to slightly slow down in overall value growth by a CAGR of 4.8%, which is largely attributed to price increases. Nevertheless, once inflation is actively brought under control, plant-based dairy and the dairy and dairy alternatives category as a whole is set for expansion, bolstered by sustained demand characterised by varying consumer preferences and the continued diversification of product offerings.Footnote 1

Canada - Retail sales of dairy products by category, historic Can$ millions - current prices

Category

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Total - dairy

12,974.1

13,199.0

14,463.6

14,680.1

15,660.9

16,630.5

Butter and spreads

1,307.6

1,327.7

1,463.1

1,503.2

1,746.6

1,992.5

Cheese

4,776.6

4,921.0

5,556.2

5,886.2

6,333.2

6,849.9

Drinking milk products

3,383.4

3,414.9

3,616.5

3,365.7

3,313.1

3,200.8

Yoghurt and sour milk products

2,107.0

2,087.8

2,212.8

2,275.8

2,469.8

2,653.5

Other dairy

1,399.5

1,447.5

1,614.9

1,649.3

1,798.1

1,933.7

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Canada - Retail sales growth (%) of dairy products by category, historic

Category

Annual growth % 2023/2022

CAGR* % 2018-2023

Total growth % 2018-2023

Total - dairy

6.2

5.1

28.2

Butter and spreads

14.1

8.8

52.4

Cheese

8.2

7.5

43.4

Drinking milk products

−3.4

−1.1

−5.4

Yoghurt and sour milk products

7.4

4.7

25.9

Other dairy

7.5

6.7

38.2

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Canada - Retail sales of dairy products by category, forecast Can$ millions - current prices

Category

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Total - dairy

16,630.5

17,457.9

18,295.7

19,170.3

20,083.4

21,033.5

Butter and spreads

1,992.5

2,098.9

2,190.5

2,283.0

2,377.9

2,480.3

Cheese

6,849.9

7,310.6

7,749.2

8,193.6

8,648.0

9,111.2

Drinking milk products

3,200.8

3,211.6

3,268.3

3,336.0

3,409.0

3,486.2

Yoghurt and sour milk products

2,653.5

2,792.0

2,934.8

3,092.9

3,267.9

3,458.7

Other dairy

1,933.7

2,044.8

2,152.8

2,264.9

2,380.6

2,497.1

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Canada - Retail sales growth (%) of dairy products by category, forecast

Category

Annual growth % 2024/2023

CAGR* % 2023-2028

Total growth % 2023-2028

Total - dairy

5.0

4.8

26.5

Butter and spreads

5.3

4.5

24.5

Cheese

6.7

5.9

33.0

Drinking milk products

0.3

1.7

8.9

Yoghurt and sour milk products

5.2

5.4

30.3

Other dairy

5.7

5.2

29.1

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Competitive landscape - dairy

In 2023, leading retail companies (top brands) in the Canadian dairy category included Saputo Inc. (Dairyland, Neilson, Saputo) at a value of Can$3.6 billion (21.7%), The Lactalis Groupe (Lactantia, Beatrice, Black Diamond) at Can$3.2 billion (19.3%), and Agropur Co-operative Agro-Alimentaire (L'Extra, Natrel, Quebon) at Can$2.6 billion (15.5%). Private labelled dairy brands accounted for Can$1.3 billion (15.5%) of sales in 2023.

A noteworthy change within the dairy competitive landscape was Nestlé's divestiture to Perrigo Inc. of the Good Start baby milk formula brand, where Nestlé previously has been a significant player in this market. Additionally, Lactalis' Canada acquired Khaas, a specialty yogurt brand. Notable innovations by prominent brands in the growth of plant-based milk, cheese and yogurt alternatives categories include Danone's Silk (Nextmilk), Vitalite, Babybel, Two Bears, Yoggu, and Becel.Footnote 1

Canada's - Top 10 companies (brands) ofdairy products, 2023 retail value sales (US$ million) and market share - current prices

Company

Top brand(s)

Retail sales (US$ million)

Market share % in 2023

Saputo Inc.

Dairyland, Neilson, Saputo, Armstrong, Alex de Portneuf, Stella, Nutrilait, Fraser Valley, Milk 2 Go, JOYYA

3,600.6

21.7

Lactalis, Groupe

Lactantia, Beatrice, Black Diamond, Iögo, Cracker Barrel, Astro, P'tit Quebec, Balderson, Cheez Whiz, Olympic, aMOOza!, Astro BioBest

3,213.4

19.3

Agropur Co-operative Agro-Alimentaire

L'Extra, Natrel, Quebon, Sealtest, OKA

2,578.5

15.5

Kraft Heinz Company

Kraft, Philadelphia, Jell-O, Velveeta

1,160.4

7.0

Danone, Groupe

Danone, Activia, Actimel, International Delight, Danino

967.3

5.8

General Mills Inc.

Yoplait, Liberté, Minigo

720.6

4.3

Upfield Holdings BV

Becel, Imperial, I Can't Believe It's Not Butter

396.7

2.4

Gay Lea Foods Co-Operative Ltd.

Gay Lea, Nordica

191.5

1.2

Arla Foods Amba

Tre Stelle

109.7

0.7

Bel, Groupe

Boursin

85.7

0.5

Private label

Private label

1,313.4

7.9

Others

Others

1,793.5

10.8

Total - dairy

16,630.5

100.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Retail distribution channels - dairy products and alternatives

In 2023, store-based retailing distribution of dairy products and alternatives totalled a market share of 94.8% mainly consisting of grocery retailers such as supermarkets (54.8%), hypermarkets (18.7%), small local grocers (9.2%), and discounters (6.8%). Non-store e-commerce retailing for dairy products and alternatives held a 5.2% market share, which has increased by a high CAGR of 79.2% from sales of Can$51.3 million in 2018 to Can$947.2 million in 2023.

As supermarkets and hypermarkets maintain their position as the primary choice for consumers seeking dairy products, a notable trend is the increasing popularity of discounters like Costco. Consumers are opting for bulk purchases to capitalize on potential savings over sporadic offer discounts from supermarkets and hypermarkets - primarily driven by the ongoing high levels of food inflation. Heightened sales for 'everyday or immediate need' food products are also occurring within General Merchandise and Dollar stores.Footnote 1

Retail distribution channels for dairy products and alternatives in Canada, by outlet type retail value sales (Can$ millions), current prices

Outlet type

2018

2023

CAGR* % 2018-2023

Actual

Share %

Actual

Share %

Total - retail channels

14,068.1

100.0

18,044.3

100.0

5.1

Store-based retail - offline

14,016.8

99.6

17,097.1

94.8

4.1

Grocery retailers

13,778.3

97.9

16,801.4

93.1

4.0

Convenience retail stores (including forecourts)

329.1

2.3

345.4

1.9

1.0

Supermarkets

8,038.8

57.1

9,893.0

54.8

4.2

Hypermarkets

2,727.3

19.4

3,366.6

18.7

4.3

Discounters

1,033.2

7.3

1,222.5

6.8

3.4

Warehouse clubs

221.4

1.6

261.5

1.4

3.4

Food/drink tobacco specialists

44.6

0.3

58.5

0.3

5.6

Small local grocers

1,383.9

9.8

1,654.0

9.2

3.6

Non-grocery specialists

238.4

1.7

295.7

1.6

4.4

General merchandise stores

77.2

0.5

94.4

0.5

4.1

Health and beauty specialists

159.6

1.1

192.9

1.1

3.9

Other non-grocery retailers

1.7

0.0

8.3

0.0

37.3

Non-store retail - e-commerce

51.3

0.4

947.2

5.2

79.2

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Staple foods – baked goods

Retail sales

In 2023, baked goods were the 2nd largest packaged food segment at a total retail sales value of Can$11.2 billion in Canada, growing historically by a CAGR of 7.0% between 2018 and 2023. Bread was the largest subsector within the baked goods category to reach sales of Can$6.7 billion (59.5%), followed by pastries at Can$2.1 billion (12.2%), cakes at Can$1.2 billion (11.1%), dessert pies and tarts at Can$726.0 million (7.0%), frozen baked goods at Can$388.6 million (5.5%), and dessert mixes at Can$113.7 million (3.3%) in 2023.

Amidst high prices that have been soaring to record levels, sales of baked goods are set to contract in value and volume growth - particularly in the bread category. Consumers are seeking cost-saving options and when not purchasing in bulk, they are turning to smaller discount retailers like Dollarama. While affordability is a key concern, health-conscious consumers are increasingly looking for functionality and healthier options when it comes to baked goods. Whole wheat has been the staple choice over the years, yet emerging ingredients found in flatbread, leavened bread, and cakes - often considered 'functional and healthier alternatives' in the category - are products that are oat flour-based, gluten-free, and keto-friendly or plant-based options.Footnote 2

In the forecast period (2023 to 2028), baked goods are expected to gradually decline due to high prices and an increasingly health-conscious consumer base, focused on reduced-carb diets - particularly in the case of regular white bread (leavened or flat). Dessert mixes with its lack of nutrition are expected to decrease the most over the forecast period at a CAGR of −0.3%. Nevertheless, there are opportunities to strengthen the category as the plant-based trend is gaining momentum in Canada and manufacturers prioritize the introduction of better-for-you products. Artisinal bakers offering more options in the fresh bread segment, along with Canada's ambitious immigration plan are expected to strengthen the category. With an increased diversity of consumers, the baked goods category is set to see a growing number of foodservice outlets serving global cuisine and supermarkets are now stocking more ethnic food products (including naans, roti, tortillas, and new varieties of Agege bread from Nigeria).Footnote 2

Canada - Retail sales of baked goods by category, historic Can$ millions - current prices

Category

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Total - baked goods

7,985.1

8,199.0

8,922.8

9,131.9

10,286.6

11,199.3

Bread

4,579.5

4,679.7

5,225.1

5,383.3

6,122.8

6,661.3

Cakes

997.1

1,013.8

1,033.6

1,056.7

1,164.5

1,242.5

Dessert mixes

97.5

96.6

105.6

103.9

110.1

113.7

Frozen baked goods

294.6

307.1

351.0

346.2

368.4

388.6

Pastries

1,455.8

1,517.7

1,574.3

1,611.9

1,842.4

2,067.2

Dessert pies and tarts

560.6

584.1

633.2

630.0

678.5

726.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Canada - Retail sales growth (%) of baked goods by category, historic

Category

Annual growth % 2023/2022

CAGR* % 2018-2023

Total Growth % 2018-2023

Total - baked goods

8.9

7.0

40.3

Bread

8.8

7.8

45.5

Cakes

6.7

4.5

24.6

Dessert mixes

3.3

3.1

16.6

Frozen baked goods

5.5

5.7

31.9

Pastries

12.2

7.3

42.0

Dessert pies and tarts

7.0

5.3

29.5

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Canada - Retail sales of baked goods by category, forecast Can$ millions - current prices

Category

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Total - baked goods

11,199.3

11,504.2

11,848.5

12,234.4

12,641.1

13,082.6

Bread

6,661.3

6,854.0

7,072.3

7,315.1

7,569.9

7,852.3

Cakes

1,242.5

1,243.3

1,257.6

1,285.8

1,324.6

1,373.1

Dessert mixes

113.7

113.0

112.3

111.9

111.9

112.1

Frozen baked goods

388.6

397.7

407.2

417.7

429.3

441.8

Pastries

2,067.2

2,141.4

2,219.8

2,301.4

2,380.8

2,456.2

Dessert pies and tarts

726.0

754.8

779.3

802.5

824.7

847.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Canada - Retail sales growth (%) of baked goods by category, forecast

Category

Annual growth % 2024/2023

CAGR* % 2023-2028

Total growth % 2023-2028

Total - baked goods

2.7

3.2

16.8

Bread

2.9

3.3

17.9

Cakes

0.1

2.0

10.5

Dessert mixes

−0.6

−0.3

−1.4

Frozen baked goods

2.3

2.6

13.7

Pastries

3.6

3.5

18.8

Dessert pies and tarts

4.0

3.1

16.7

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Competitive landscape - Baked goods

In 2023, leading retail companies (and top brands) in the baked goods category in Canada included Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV (Dempster's, Vachon, Stonemill) at sales of Can$1.7 billion (15.0%), George Weston Ltd. (Wonder Bread, Country Harvest, D'Italiano) at Can$980.0 million (8.8%), and FGF Brands Inc. (Casa Mendosa) at Can$181.6 million (1.6%). Artisanal bakers, however, brought in the highest share of sales value at Can$3.8 billion (34%), followed by private label baked good products that totalled Can$2.3 billion (20.2%) in 2023.

Rising prices are compelling consumers to down trade or turn to discount retailers like Dollarama for their grocery needs, including baked goods. Artisanal manufacturers are seeing a growing market share as independent bakeries and shops continue to emerge nationwide. A growing diversity in the Canadian population is speeding the growth in foodservice sales of baked goods and bakeries that are offering unique and new global flavours.Footnote 2

Canada's - Top 10 companies (brands) ofbaked goods, 2023 retail value sales (US$ million) and market share - current prices

Company

Top brand(s)

Retail sales (US$ million)

Market share % in 2023

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV

Dempster's, Vachon, Stonemill

1,674.9

15.0

George Weston Ltd.

Wonder Bread, Country Harvest, D'Italiano, Weston, All But Gluten, Casa Mendosa

980.0

8.8

FGF Brands Inc.

Casa Mendosa

181.6

1.6

Kellogg Company

Kellogg's Eggo, Kellogg's Pop-Tarts

181.3

1.6

Ozery Bakery/Pita Break

Morning Rounds

86.2

0.8

General Mills Inc.

Betty Crocker, Pillsbury

80.9

0.7

La Boulangerie St-Methode

La Récolte de St-Méthode

79.1

0.7

Chudleigh's Ltd.

Chudleigh's

49.2

0.4

McCain Foods Ltd.

McCain

27.0

0.2

Hostess Brands LLC

Hostess

24.5

0.2

Artisanal

Artisanal

3,806.5

34.0

Private label

Private label

2,267.0

20.2

Others

Others

1,686.0

15.1

Total - baked goods

11,199.3

100.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Retail distribution channels - staple foods

In 2023, store-based retailing distribution of staple foods like baked good products totalled a market share of 95.5% mainly consisting of grocery retailers such as supermarkets (46.5%), hypermarkets (20.9%), small local grocers (9.9%), discounters (7.9%), and food/drink tobacco specialists (6.0%). Non-store e-commerce retailing for staple food products held a 4.5% market share, which has increased by a high CAGR of 94.2% from sales of Can$42.6 million in 2018 to Can$1.2 billion in 2023.

Retail distribution channels for staple foods in Canada, by outlet type retail value sales (Can$ millions), current prices

Outlet type

2018

2023

CAGR* % 2018-2023

Actual

Share %

Actual

Share %

Total - retail channels

19,644.7

100.0

26,331.3

100.0

6.0

Store-based retail - offline

19,602.1

99.8

25,155.2

95.5

5.1

Grocery retailers

19,217.9

97.8

24,701.4

93.8

5.1

Convenience retail stores (including forecourts)

183.6

0.9

214.1

0.8

3.1

Supermarkets

9,463.7

48.2

12,250.5

46.5

5.3

Hypermarkets

4,350.6

22.1

5,514.3

20.9

4.9

Discounters

1,613.5

8.2

2,086.0

7.9

5.3

Warehouse clubs

363.9

1.9

451.7

1.7

4.4

Food/drink tobacco specialists

1,181.5

6.0

1,588.7

6.0

6.1

Small local grocers

2,061.2

10.5

2,596.1

9.9

4.7

Non-grocery specialists

384.2

2.0

453.8

1.7

3.4

General merchandise stores

289.7

1.5

347.0

1.3

3.7

Apparel and footwear specialists

16.7

0.1

20.0

0.1

3.7

Health and beauty specialists

58.7

0.3

71.1

0.3

3.9

Other non-grocery retailers

19.1

0.1

15.6

0.1

−4.0

Non-store retail - e-commerce

42.6

0.2

1,176.1

4.5

94.2

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Cooking ingredients – meals and soups

In 2023, the meals and soups category was the 3rd largest packaged food segment at a total retail sales value of Can$9.1 billion in Canada, growing historically by a CAGR of 7.1% between 2018 and 2023. Ready meals was the largest subsector within this category that reached sales of Can$4.4 billion (48%), followed by prepared salads at Can$1.5 billion (15.9%), food kits at Can$1.3 billion (14%), packaged pizzas at Can$1.2 million (12.7%), and soup at Can$861.8 million (9.4%) in 2023.

In Canada, there is a growing interest in new product developments in culturally-inspired foods, which is helping to particularly boost the sales in the meals and soups category - especially for ready meals (CAGR: 5.7%) and food kits (19.6%) between 2018 and 2023. Prepared salads was the best performed sub-category in 2023 (+7.8%) over the previous year, followed closely by food kits (+6.9%). Reasoning behind this trend, is due to consumers being increasingly pressed for time for home cooking especially with organizations adopting hybrid or on-site work models. As a result, meal kits help relieve the hassle of extensive meal preparation and these already prepared meals have become an economical and convenient solution for working Canadians.Footnote 3

The soups and meals category in Canada, however, is forecast to experience moderate growth at a total CAGR of 6.7% over the next five years (2023-2028). Food kits are expected to continue to grow at a higher rate (18.6%) over the forecast period, while traditional soups will be less popular. The demand for convenience and intriguing flavours is expected to play a pivotal role in supporting the industry's growth. Albeit, as money becomes tighter, consumers are expected to cut down from high spending in the grocery food and beverage industry, and instead will look towards budgeting their discretionary funds on expenditures such as foodservice, outdoor activities, and travel.Footnote 3

New health-consious product developments is a key factor, to continue to shape the meals and soups category. New product innovations must emphasize on functional benefits with added nutritional value that are rich in macronutrients or have a higher protein content. Additionally, the introduction of plant-based products are likely to gain prominence and carve out a lasting presence in the category.Footnote 3

Canada - Retail sales of meals and soups by category, historic Can$ millions - current prices

Category

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Total - meals and soups

6,488.1

6,825.9

7,871.0

8,330.2

8,773.6

9,147.9

Ready meals

3,332.0

3,424.1

3,889.6

4,033.5

4,239.2

4,392.0

Soup

682.1

687.8

805.9

811.4

844.6

861.8

Pizza

923.2

917.4

1,073.5

1,104.3

1,145.2

1,162.4

Food kits

523.7

696.6

1,016.1

1,192.9

1,198.2

1,280.4

Prepared salads

1,027.1

1,100.1

1,085.8

1,187.9

1,346.3

1,451.3

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Canada - Retail sales growth (%) of meals and soups by category, historic

Category

Annual growth % 2023/2022

CAGR* % 2018-2023

Total growth % 2018-2023

Total - meals and soups

4.3

7.1

41.0

Ready meals

3.6

5.7

31.8

Soup

2.0

4.8

26.3

Pizza

1.5

4.7

25.9

Food kits

6.9

19.6

144.5

Prepared salads

7.8

7.2

41.3

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Canada - Retail sales of meals and soups by category, forecast Can$ millions - current prices

Category

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Total - meals and soups

9,147.9

9,631.4

10,257.8

11,008.1

11,859.0

12,674.9

Ready meals

4,392.0

4,576.2

4,777.2

4,994.4

5,223.8

5,465.7

Soup

861.8

880.5

899.9

921.5

945.6

969.8

Pizza

1,162.4

1,189.4

1,221.6

1,257.6

1,297.2

1,338.6

Food kits

1,280.4

1,481.0

1,769.6

2,143.3

2,599.1

3,005.6

Prepared salads

1,451.3

1,504.2

1,589.6

1,691.3

1,793.3

1,895.2

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Canada - Retail sales growth (%) of meals and soups by category, forecast

Category

Annual growth % 2024/2023

CAGR* % 2023-2028

Total growth % 2023-2028

Total - meals and soups

5.3

6.7

38.6

Ready meals

4.2

4.5

24.4

Soup

2.2

2.4

12.5

Pizza

2.3

2.9

15.2

Food kits

15.7

18.6

134.7

Prepared salads

3.6

5.5

30.6

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Competitive landscape - meals and soups

In 2023, leading retail companies (and brands) in the meals and soups category in Canada included Nestlé SA (Stouffer's, Delissio, Marketplace Cuisine) at Can$1.2 billion (13.5%), HelloFresh SE (Chef's Plate, HelloFresh) at Can$577.8 million (6.3%), and the Campbell Soup Company (Campbell's, Habitant) at Can$521.5 million (5.7%). Private label meals and soups products held highest sales at a total market value of Can$1.5 million (16.1%) in 2023.

As people have started to return to work, the increasingly hectic lifestyles of consumers are anticipated to drive heightened demand for meal kits, which have led to sales growth in companies like Hello Fresh, Good Food, and several other new start-ups, such as Halalmeals and Inspired Go in Canada.

Nestlé's decision to exit the Canadian market in 2023, with leading brands (Delissio, Stouffer's) in frozen pizza and ready meals sub-categories will have significant implications for the food industry. Other brands will need to strategize and compete with new innovations, to fill the gap left behind by these product departures.Footnote 3

Canada's - Top 10 companies (brands) ofmeals and soups, 2023 retail value sales (US$ million) and market share - current prices

Company

Top brand(s)

Retail sales (US$ million)

Market share % in 2023

Nestlé SA

Stouffer's, Delissio, Marketplace Cuisine

1,233.1

13.5

HelloFresh SE

Chef's Plate, HelloFresh

577.8

6.3

Campbell Soup Company

Campbell's, Habitant

521.5

5.7

Charoen Pokphand Group

Michelina's

506.5

5.5

Oetker-Gruppe

Giuseppe, Restorante, Casa di Mama

497.5

5.4

Kraft Heinz Company

Kraft, Crave, Heinz

471.1

5.1

ConAgra Brands Inc.

Swanson, Healthy Choice, VH, Chef Boyardee

435.3

4.8

Goodfood Market Corp.

Goodfood

291.7

3.2

Taylor Fresh Foods Inc.

Earthbound Farm, River Ranch

191.9

2.1

Itochu Corp.

Dole

183.3

2.0

Private label

Private label

1,469.8

16.1

Others

Others

1,817.8

19.9

Total - meals and soups

9,147.9

100.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Retail distribution channels - cooking ingredients and meals

In 2023, store-based retailing distribution of cooking ingredients and meals totalled a market share of 90.9% mainly consisting of grocery retailers such as supermarkets (53.7%), hypermarkets (17.4%), small local grocers (12.1%), and discounters (5.4%). Non-store e-commerce retailing for cooking ingredients and meal products held a 9.1% market share, which has increased by a high CAGR of 40.2% from sales of Can$262.2 million in 2018 to Can$1.4 billion in 2023.

Retail distribution channels for cooking ingredients and meals in Canada, by outlet type retail value sales (Can$ millions), current prices

Outlet type

2018

2023

CAGR* % 2018-2023

Actual

Share %

Actual

Share %

Total - retail channels

11,358.0

100.0

15,551.8

100.0

6.5

Store-based retail - offline

11,095.8

97.7

14,132.7

90.9

5.0

Grocery retailers

11,072.4

97.5

14,099.3

90.7

5.0

Convenience retail stores (including forecourts)

40.0

0.4

48.5

0.3

3.9

Supermarkets

6,723.9

59.2

8,358.3

53.7

4.4

Hypermarkets

2,031.7

17.9

2,704.8

17.4

5.9

Discounters

574.5

5.1

837.8

5.4

7.8

Warehouse clubs

197.8

1.7

260.8

1.7

5.7

Food/drink tobacco specialists

1.5

0.0

1.6

0.0

1.3

Small local grocers

1,503.1

13.2

1,887.6

12.1

4.7

Non-grocery specialists

23.4

0.2

33.3

0.2

7.3

Health and beauty specialists

22.5

0.2

32.6

0.2

7.7

Other non-grocery retailers

0.8

0.0

0.8

0.0

0.0

Non-store retail - e-commerce

262.2

2.3

1,419.2

9.1

40.2

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Snacks – savoury

In 2023, savoury snack products in Canada was the largest segment in the overall snack category at a total retail sales value of Can$6.6 billion, growing historically by a CAGR of 6.8% between 2018 and 2023. Salty snacks had the highest sales in the savoury snack category at a value of Can$3.6 billion (54.1%), followed by nuts, seeds and trail mixes at Can$1.1 billion (16.2%), savoury biscuits at Can$913.2 million (13.8%), meat snacks at Can$541.3 million (8.2%), popcorn at Can$286.5 million (4.3%), pretzels at Can$89.8 million (1.4%), and seafood snacks at Can$12.3 million (1.(%) in 2023.

Post-pandemic, Canada after a long period of being isolated from others has fully reopened services that has resulted in an increase in social gatherings, as well as the return to offices and schools. This has led to a resurgence in on-the-go snacking and has encouraged manufacturers to move towards smaller portion size packaging more suitable for everyday consumption. Nevertheless, with food inflation in the country reaching an all-time high in early 2023, prices were increased in some snack sub-categories such as in confectionery and sweet biscuits, which resulted in lower volume sales. This forced manufacturers to take aggressive actions to lower price points in general that helped to maintain steady growth in an already high consumption level category - particularly amongst the targeted younger student generation, who are key consumers of snacks.Footnote 4

Snacks are expected to continue growth in the forecast period by a CAGR of 6.4% (2023-2028). While government actions aim to reduce inflation in Canada, manufacturers are heavily investing in new product development that focus on the health conscious consumer with functional benefits. Almost every snack category has seen a wide range of innovative products, where manufacturers are revitalizing certain categories by focusing on key ingredients such as added minerals, vitamins, protein and fibre, while striving to avoid high-carb and high-sugar products.Footnote 4

Canada - Retail sales of savoury snacks by category, historic Can$ millions - current prices

Category

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Total - savoury snacks

4,759.8

4,946.5

5,362.1

5,671.4

6,116.3

6,620.1

Nuts, seeds and trail mixes

680.3

709.1

779.8

863.8

961.5

1,072.8

Popcorn

231.9

228.1

233.6

245.7

264.7

286.5

Pretzels

62.2

68.2

73.9

77.2

84.3

89.8

Meat snacks

287.7

326.0

376.6

420.3

476.2

541.3

Salty snacks

2,608.1

2,700.7

2,926.5

3,070.9

3,309.0

3,581.6

Savoury biscuits

794.3

815.8

866.3

880.7

896.2

913.2

Seafood snacks

5.4

6.6

8.8

9.6

10.8

12.3

Other savoury snacks (including seaweed, spicy gluten, insect snacks, variety packs etc.)

90.2

92.0

96.7

103.2

113.5

122.6

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Canada - Retail sales growth (%) of savoury snacks by category, historic

Category

Annual growth % 2023/2022

CAGR* % 2018-2023

Total growth % 2018-2023

Total - savoury snacks

8.2

6.8

39.1

Nuts, seeds and trail mixes

11.6

9.5

57.7

Popcorn

8.2

4.3

23.5

Pretzels

6.5

7.6

44.4

Meat snacks

13.7

13.5

88.1

Salty snacks

8.2

6.5

37.3

Savoury biscuits

1.9

2.8

15.0

Seafood snacks

13.9

17.9

127.8

Other savoury snacks (including seaweed, spicy gluten, insect snacks, variety packs etc.)

8.0

6.3

35.9

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Canada - Retail sales of savoury snacks by category, forecast Can$ millions - current prices

Category

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Total - savoury snacks

6,620.1

7,034.0

7,471.4

7,939.1

8,455.8

9,014.9

Nuts, seeds and trail mixes

1,072.8

1,169.7

1,275.0

1,390.1

1,519.5

1,662.5

Popcorn

286.5

303.2

319.4

335.8

352.6

369.6

Pretzels

89.8

93.6

97.2

100.6

104.1

107.2

Meat snacks

541.3

591.1

640.8

692.6

747.8

806.7

Salty snacks

3,581.6

3,814.5

4,063.0

4,328.7

4,623.4

4,942.2

Savoury biscuits

913.2

919.2

925.5

933.3

943.2

954.4

Seafood snacks

12.3

13.5

14.7

16.1

17.7

19.6

Other savoury snacks (including seaweed, spicy gluten, insect snacks, variety packs etc.)

122.6

129.4

135.7

141.7

147.5

152.9

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Canada - Retail sales growth (%) ofsavoury snacks by category, forecast

Category

Annual growth % 2024/2023

CAGR* % 2023-2028

Total growth % 2023-2028

Total - savoury snacks

6.3

6.4

36.2

Nuts, seeds and trail mixes

9.0

9.2

55.0

Popcorn

5.8

5.2

29.0

Pretzels

4.2

3.6

19.4

Meat snacks

9.2

8.3

49.0

Salty snacks

6.5

6.7

38.0

Savoury biscuits

0.7

0.9

4.5

Seafood snacks

9.8

9.8

59.3

Other savoury snacks (including seaweed, spicy gluten, insect snacks, variety packs etc.)

5.5

4.5

24.7

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Competitive landscape - savoury snacks

In 2023, leading retail companies (and brands) in the savoury snack category in Canada included PepsiCo Inc. (Lay's, Doritos, Ruffles) at Can$2.5 billion (37.6%), Mondelez International Inc. (Ritz, Premium, Christie) at Can$466.8 million (7.1%), and Old Dutch Foods Inc. (Old Dutch, Restaurante Style, Humpty Dumpty) at Can$360.3 million (5.4%). Private label savoury snack brands held a high total market value of Can$968.4 million (14.6%) in 2023.

Manufacturers are targeting the younger, higher consumption audience, often through social media platforms such as Instagram that offers engaging content and interactions for snack brands like Pringles, Ruffles, KitKat, Lays, and Twizzlers. Kit Kat, for example, launched an Instagram-specific product (exclusively available through Instagram influencers) called Iftar Bar at the start of Ramadan, targeting and engaging the Muslim community - which specializes in 30 bars, one for each day of fasting. Additionally, small business owners persistently striving to enter the snacks market are actively supported by Canadian consumers. As a result, successful entrants gaining consumer confidence are small companies like the Humble Snacks Company and Simply Protein. As part of its Global snacking business unit called Kellanova, Mondelez International is restructuring its operations by successfully acquiring the Cliff Bar and Kellogg Company's snack brands.Footnote 4

Canada's - Top 10 companies (brands) ofsavoury snacks, 2023 retail value sales (US$ million) and market share - current prices

Company

Top brand(s)

Retail sales (US$ million)

Market share % in 2023

PepsiCo Inc.

Lay's, Doritos, Ruffles, Miss Vickie's, Tostitos, Smartfood, Fritos, Rold Gold, Stacy's Pita Chips, Twistos, Cheetos, Crispy Minis, Cracker Jack, Chester's, Spitz, Sunchips

2,486.6

37.6

Mondelez International Inc.

Ritz, Premium, Christie, Wheat Thins, Triscuit

466.8

7.1

Old Dutch Foods Inc.

Old Dutch, Restaurante Style, Humpty Dumpty, Arriba

360.3

5.4

Hormel Foods Corp

Planters

242.6

3.7

Link Snacks Inc

Jack Link's

196.2

3.0

ConAgra Brands Inc.

Orville Redenbacher's, Slim Jim, Bigs, Duke's

167.0

2.5

Dare Foods Ltd.

Breton, Melba, Vinta, Grissol

152.7

2.3

Campbell Soup Company

Pepperidge Farm, Kettle Chips

100.0

1.5

The Wonderful Co LLC

Wonderful Pistachios

96.8

1.5

Blue Diamond Growers

Blue Diamond

80.8

1.2

Private label

Private label

968.4

14.6

Others

Others

903.1

13.6

Total - savoury snacks

6,620.1

100.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Retail distribution channels - snacks category

In 2023, store-based retailing distribution of snack products totalled a market share of 94.5%. While grocery retailers such as supermarkets (28.9%) and hypermarkets (11.4%) have maintained their growth in the snack category, discounters (13.1%), small local grocers (12.9%), and convenience and forecourt retailers (11.4%) have at the same time steadily gained a higher market share, sometimes at the expense of traditional retailers.

Non-store e-commerce retailing for snack products held a 5.5% market share, which has increased by a high CAGR of 51% from sales of Can$124.6 million in 2018 to Can$978.0 billion in 2023. Meanwhile, vending and direct selling of snacks have remained low or have drastically declined over the period, with CAGRs of 1.6% and −12.9% respectively (2018-2023).

Foodservice has experienced a healthy recovery and has seen a strong performance as the country fully reopened. A factor also, driving this high demand is a growing population through an influx of immigrants and tourists, which has led to an increase in the number of new foodservice outlets.Footnote 4

Retail distribution channels for the snacks category in Canada, by outlet type retail value sales (Can$ millions), current prices

Outlet type

2018

2023

CAGR* % 2018-2023

Actual

Share %

Actual

Share %

Total - retail channels

13,390.3

100.0

17,650.9

100.0

5.7

Store-based retail - offline

13,265.7

99.1

16,672.9

94.5

4.7

Grocery retailers

11,603.3

86.7

14,509.1

82.2

4.6

Convenience retail stores (including forecourts)

1,571.8

11.7

2,005.4

11.4

5.0

Supermarkets

4,162.5

31.1

5,093.2

28.9

4.1

Hypermarkets

1,577.0

11.8

2,011.7

11.4

5.0

Discounters

1,822.4

13.6

2,311.4

13.1

4.9

Warehouse clubs

255.3

1.9

331.6

1.9

5.4

Food/drink tobacco specialists

405.3

3.0

471.1

2.7

3.1

Small local grocers

1,809.0

13.5

2,284.8

12.9

4.8

Non-grocery specialists

1,591.4

11.9

2,087.1

11.8

5.6

General merchandise stores

89.0

0.7

115.4

0.7

5.3

Health and beauty specialists

1,096.4

8.2

1,321.4

7.5

3.8

Other non-grocery retailers

406.1

3.0

650.4

3.7

9.9

Non-store retail

195.5

1.5

1,054.7

6.0

40.1

Vending

70.7

0.5

76.6

0.4

1.6

Direct selling

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.0

−12.9

E-Commerce

124.6

0.9

978.0

5.5

51.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Product launch and trend analysis

Mintel indicated that there were 37,278 packaged food products launched (including new variety/range extension, packaging, formulation or relaunched) in Canada's supermarkets between the period of January 2018 and December 7th, 2023. During this period, these food products consisted mainly of categories such as new sauces and seasonings (16.8%), snacks (14%), processed fish, meat and egg products (12.1%), bakery (11.4%), dairy (8.1%), side dishes (6.5%), fruit and vegetables (5.5%), chocolate confectionery (5.4%), meals and meal centers (4.3%), and sweet spreads (3.4%).

Number of top packaged food product launches by selected category in Canada, N=37,278 (January 2018 to December 7, 2023)

Description of this image follows.

Description of above image

Product

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023 (January to December 7)

Total

Packaged food

6,729

6,436

6,393

6,377

6,063

5,280

37,278

Sauces and seasonings

929

901

1,182

1,216

1,133

897

6,258

Snacks

941

914

826

834

905

789

5,209

Bakery

773

771

701

697

720

573

4,235

Dairy

508

545

629

579

417

354

3,032

Side dishes

562

515

304

346

370

316

2,413

Meals and meal centers

300

228

298

279

233

252

1,590

Source: Mintel, 2023

Top parent companies launching the most new package food products in Canada over the last year [Q4-2022 to Q4-2023] were Metro (282), George Weston (279), Pattison Food Group (279), Walmart (194), Sobey's (134), and Avril Supermarché Santé (106). New packaged food brands launched recently for the first time within the last six months in the Canadian market (2023) include Chef Pasquale (Rosata sauce), Flavorgod (gingerbread cookie flavoured seasoning), We Bio! (no sugar added organic apple mango purée), and Grenade (milk chocolate protein spread).

In Canada, the fastest growing flavours in these packaged food products were tahini (+600%), pesto (+600%), and Mexican, sundried tomato, peri/piri and Turkish delight growing by +400% each [Q4-2021 to Q4-2023]. New or popular ingredients included sour cream and onion flavour, sea trout, cilantro, golden linseed flour, calcium potassium phosphate citrate, Kennebec potato, vegan fish stock, packaging gases, and Coral lentil.

Leading claims used on these packaged food products within the last three months were Kosher (37.5%), low/no/reduced allergen (33.2%), gluten free (28.5%), no additives/preservatives (23.1%), environmentally friendly packaging (17.7%), vegan/no animal ingredients (15.8%), environmentally friendly product (15.1%), and free from added/artificial flavourings (14.1%). Other health and functional claims on packaging included organic (18%), plant-based (9.2%), premium (7.3%), dairy free (5.9%), wholegrain (4.3%), high/added fibre (3.8%), all natural (3.4%), no added sugar (3.4%), and high/added protein (3.2%). Amongst these products, top growing claims included functional - eye health (+600%), functional - brain and nervous system (+300%), female (+200%), functional - digestive (133.3%), and carbon neutral (+116.7%); while declining claims at −100% included male, breath-freshening, seasonal, diabetic, no/no/reduced glycemic [Q3-2022 compared to Q3-2023].

In the Canadian market, the highest growing categories included sweet spreads (+62.5%), fruit and vegetables (+57.1%), sauces and seasonings (+23.2%), soup (+39.5%), and side dishes (+10.1%); while top declining categories included chocolate confectionery (−71.8%), dairy (−34.2%), meals and meal centers (−28.1%), bakery (−16%), snacks (−11.6%), and processed fish, meat and egg products (−9.6%) [Q4-2022 vs Q4-2023].

New product launches of packaged food products in Canada January 2018 to December 7, 2023

Product attributes

Yearly launch - item count

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Total

Yearly product launches

6,729

6,436

6,393

6,377

6,063

5,280

37,278

Top launch types

New variety/range extension

2,958

2,668

2,259

2,300

1,929

1,619

13,733

New packaging

2,057

1,723

2,363

2,246

2,595

2,079

13,063

New product

1,351

1,759

1,372

1,453

1,152

1,229

8,316

Relaunch

333

270

387

358

380

338

2,066

New formulation

30

16

12

20

7

15

100

Top sub-categories

Fish products

370

325

269

380

261

236

1,841

Seasonings

337

379

255

250

342

229

1,792

Vegetables

273

239

248

309

231

225

1,525

Meat products

378

195

236

190

194

142

1,335

Baking ingredients and mixes

207

163

164

240

304

197

1,275

Top five companies

Loblaws

490

255

401

368

340

152

2,006

Sobeys

178

79

386

413

205

88

1,349

Walmart

176

233

237

128

248

157

1,179

Metro Brands

303

109

41

175

235

235

1,098

Save-on-Foods

0

26

119

213

168

153

679

Top five brands

Compliments

92

50

293

290

126

65

916

PC President's Choice

202

94

173

155

173

80

877

Great Value

128

171

170

82

163

128

842

Western Family

109

44

118

220

145

112

748

Selection

142

38

7

58

114

76

435

Import status (if reported)

Imported

2,242

2,400

2,290

2,363

2,055

1,814

13,164

Not imported

1,273

1,292

1,279

1,376

1,580

1,471

8,271

Top five price groups

US$0.18 - 11.17

6,304

5,949

5,726

5,704

5,481

4,613

33,777

US$11.18 - 22.17

380

418

595

606

526

620

3,145

US$22.18 - 33.17

35

59

62

54

54

35

299

US$33.18 - 44.17

9

3

10

7

2

7

38

US$44.18 - 57.00

0

1

0

6

0

2

9

Top five flavours (including blend)

Unflavoured/plain

2,445

2,416

2,323

2,440

2,139

1,804

13,567

Chocolate

146

111

111

121

99

105

693

Smoke

111

73

65

82

75

58

464

Vanilla/vanilla Bourbon/vanilla Madagascar

63

61

59

55

50

47

335

Strawberry

61

56

55

53

48

55

328

Top package types

Flexible (stand-up pouch/sachet)

3,615

3,546

2,825

2,744

2,991

2,548

18,269

Jar

514

573

866

859

732

616

4,160

Bottle

351

344

562

570

503

402

2,732

Tub

484

461

364

409

388

404

2,510

Skinpack

406

389

410

385

290

254

2,134

Source: Mintel; Global New Product Database, 2023

Product examples

Organic Brown Rice Paper with Turmeric

Source: Mintel, 2023

Company

Cultivar Foods

Brand

King Soba

Sub-category

Bakery, baking ingredients and mixes

Market

Canada, imported from Vietnam

Related claims

Organic, vegetarian, gluten free, wholegrain, low / no / reduced allergen, ethical – environmentally friendly package / recycling, ease of use, vegan / no animal ingredients

Store name / type / location

Marchés TAU, natural / health food store,  Montreal-Langelier, H1S 1V7

Launch type

New product

Date published

December 2023

Price in Canadian dollars

9.99

 

This product retails in a 200 gram pack and contains 22 portions. Vietnamese-style rice wraps. Organic, gluten-free, and vegan. Ideal for fresh Vietnamese-style spring or summer rolls. Just soak, fill and roll. Recyclable pack. Suitable for vegans and vegetarians. Logos and certifications: Canada Organic

Organic Coconut Sugar

Source: Mintel, 2023

Company

Big Tree Farms

Brand

Big Tree Farms

Sub-category

Sweeteners and sugar, sucrose

Market

Canada

Related claims

Organic, ethical – environmentally friendly product / human / sustainable, vegan / no animal ingredients, GMO free  

Store name / type / location

Costco, club store, Burnaby, V5C 0E5

Launch type

New product

Date published

December 2023

Price in Canadian dollars

12.99

 

This product retails in a 1.8 kilogram pack. Nature's perfect unrefined sweetener for baking and beverages. Certified fair trade. Organic granulated coconut flower blossom nectar sugar is super sustainable. Logos and certifications: USDA Organic, Non GMO Project Verified, Control Union Fair Choice, Vegan, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram

Fire Roasted Brussel Sprouts & Bacon

Source: Mintel, 2023

Company

PuraVida Foods

Brand

PuraVida

Sub-category

Side dishes, stuffing, polenta and other sides

Market

Canada, imported from the United States

Related claims

Microwaveable, gluten free, low / no / reduced allergen

Store name / type / location

Costco, club store, Burnaby, V5C 0E5

Launch type

New product

Date published

December 2023

Price in Canadian dollars

17.99

 

This product retails in a 1.1 kilogram pack containing four pouches. Microwaveable individual steam pouches, ready in five mins. A mix of Brussels sprouts and naturally smoked bacon tossed in extra virgin olive oil, Himalayan pink salt and cracked black peppercorns, fire roasted using proprietary high temperature for a short time - al dente cooking method, followed by rapid freezing using advanced cryogenics. Gluten free. Logos and certifications: Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, YouTube, U.S. Inspected and Passed

Organic Whole Brown Rice Flour

Source: Mintel, 2023

Company

La Milanaise

Brand

Milanaise

Sub-category

Bakery, baking ingredients and mixes

Market

Manufactured in Canada, not imported

Related claims

Organic, wholegrain, ethical – environmentally friendly package / biodegradable / toxins free / sustainable

Store name / type / location

IGA, supermarket, Jean Talon Est, Montreal, H1S 1K6

Launch type

New product

Date published

December 2023

Price in Canadian dollars

10.79

 

This product retails in a 1 kilogram pack. Ideal for cookies and muffins. Made in Canada from imported ingredients. Milanaise is a family business. To meet organic definition, all cereal grains used for milling have been produced in full compliance to standards of organic agriculture, using composts, green manures and sound crop rotations to maintain and enhance soil fertility. For better quality, all the manufacturer's flours are freshly milled. 100% compostable bag with water based ink. Logos and certifications: Ecocert, Canada Organic, Kosher, Ecocert Canada

Marble Rye Sliced Bread

Source: Mintel, 2023

Company

Walmart

Brand

Your Fresh Market

Sub-category

Bakery, bread and bread products

Market

Canada

Related claims

No additives / preservatives, Kosher, low / no / reduced transfat, free from added / artificial colourings or flavourings

Store name / type / location

Walmart, mass merchandise / hypermarket, Edmonton, T6N 0A9

Launch type

New product

Date published

December 2023

Price in Canadian dollars

3.47

 

This product retails in a 500 gram pack. Marble rye sliced bread, made from a traditional European-style recipe - perfect on its own, as a sandwich or for dipping in your favourite spreads. The Ingredient Wise symbol appears on products made without these ingredients: synthetic colours, artificial flavours and sweeteners, hydrogenated vegetable oil, and monosodium glutamate. Logos and certifications: Ingredient Wise, Kosher, How2Recycle

Chestnut Spread

Source: Mintel, 2023

Company

Meilleures Marques

Brand

Chef Lelarge

Sub-category

Sweet spreads, nut spreads

Market

Canada, imported from France

Store name / type / location

Metro (Canada), supermarket, Montreal, Langelier, H1N 1C6

Launch type

New product

Date published

December 2023

Price in Canadian dollars

14.99

 

This product is now available and retails in a 500 gram pack. Fine products. This chestnut spread has a delectable texture and can be enjoyed on its own, on a piece of angel cake or mixed into favourite recipes, like chestnut brownies.

For more information

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Resources

  • Euromonitor International database, 2023
  • Euromonitor International | June 2023. Country Report: Snacks in Canada
  • Euromonitor International | November 2023. Country Report: Baked Goods in Canada
  • Euromonitor International | November 2023. Country Report: Meals and Soups in Canada
  • Euromonitor International | September 2023. Country Report: Dairy Products and Alternatives in Canada
  • Global Trade Tracker, 2023
  • Mintel Global New Products Database, 2023

Sector Trend Analysis – Packaged food trends in Canada
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Erin-Ann Chauvin, Senior Market Analyst

© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2024).

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