Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.
Executive summary
India is the world's second most populous country and boasts the sixth largest economy. With a population of 1.4 billion and a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$3.1 trillion, the Indian market is large and growing fast.
India is a net exporter of agri-food and seafood, with imports of Can$38.2 billion. Top imports include palm oil, soya bean oil, sunflower oil, and almonds. India's ninth largest agri-food import, dried and shelled lentils, is Canada's primary export to the country. In 2021, Canada supplied 77.4% of India's imports of dried and shelled lentils.
In 2021, India imported US$28.6 billion worth of processed food and beverages. Indian imports of processed foods were mostly various oils, such as sunflower oil and palm oil.
In 2021, packaged food retail sales in India were valued at US$83.3 billion and grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.4% from 2017-2021. The health and wellness sector was valued at US$10.3 billion in 2021, and grew at a CAGR of 12.8% from 2017-2021.
Country profile
The Indian economy is in the process of undergoing a rapid expansion, along with rapid urbanization electrification, productivity growth, and expansion of the middle class. India remains a net exporter of agri-food and as of 2021, the enormous potential of the Indian market remained largely untapped. Canadian exports of agri-food to India were limited, mostly dominated by a single category.
With 1.4 billion people in 2021, India was the second most populous country in the world behind China and on track to surpass China by 2026. India's population is relatively young, and the country is expected to benefit from a demographic dividend.
India was the world's sixth largest economy in 2021, with a value of US$3.1 trillion. India's economy was among the most severely affected in the world by the coronavirus pandemic, with the economy experiencing negative growth in 2020. India saw a real GDP contraction of 7.3% in 2021. Growth in 2021 rebounded to positive 9.2% and is expected to remain strong in the coming decades.
Production
In 2020, India's most produced crop was sugarcane, with 370.5 million tonnes produced. Sugar cane production increased at a CAGR of 1.5% from 2016-2020, however 2020 production is down 8.6% from a peak reached in 2019. Mangoes saw the fastest production growth from 2016-2020, with production rising from 18.6 million tonnes in 2016 to 24.7 million tonnes in 2020, representing a CAGR of 7.3%. Dry onions also saw fast growth, having grown at a CAGR of 6.3%.
Chicken was the most produced meat in India in 2020, measured by weight. 3.6 million tonnes of chicken were produced in 2020, up from 3.4 million in 2016. Chicken production grew at a CAGR of 0.8% over the historic period, but 2020 levels were 15.1% below a 2019 peak. Chickens were also the most common livestock produced in 2020, with 791.0 million produced in 2020. Buffalo was a distant second for most meat produced in 2020, with 1.6 million tonnes produced, and fourth for most common livestock, with 109.7 million heads produced. Cattle was the third most common meat produced, with 0.9 million tonnes produced in 2020, and the second most common livestock produced, with 194.4 million heads produced in 2020.
| Crops | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar cane | 348,448,000 | 306,069,000 | 379,904,850 | 405,416,180 | 370,500,000 | 1.5 |
| Rice, paddy | 163,700,000 | 168,500,000 | 174,716,730 | 177,645,000 | 178,305,000 | 2.2 |
| Wheat | 92,290,000 | 98,510,220 | 99,869,520 | 103,596,230 | 107,590,000 | 3.9 |
| Potatoes | 43,417,000 | 48,605,000 | 51,310,000 | 50,190,000 | 51,300,000 | 4.3 |
| Vegetables, fresh, nowhere else specified | 36,440,322 | 37,526,120 | 41,102,000 | 42,211,000 | 40,201,745 | 2.5 |
| Bananas | 29,135,000 | 30,477,000 | 30,808,000 | 30,460,000 | 31,504,000 | 2.0 |
| Maize | 25,900,000 | 25,899,870 | 28,752,880 | 27,715,100 | 30,160,000 | 3.9 |
| Onions, dry | 20,931,000 | 22,427,000 | 23,262,000 | 22,819,000 | 26,738,000 | 6.3 |
| Mangoes, mangosteens, guavas | 18,643,000 | 23,332,000 | 24,966,000 | 25,631,000 | 24,748,000 | 7.3 |
| Tomatoes | 18,732,000 | 20,708,000 | 19,759,000 | 19,007,000 | 20,573,000 | 2.4 |
|
Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2022 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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| Livestock | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chickens | 757,404,000 | 774,258,000 | 790,945,000 | 807,894,000 | 791,032,000 | 1.1 |
| Cattle | 189,677,730 | 191,054,855 | 192,265,451 | 193,462,871 | 194,482,355 | 0.6 |
| Goats | 142,335,143 | 143,266,764 | 145,771,142 | 148,884,786 | 150,248,487 | 1.4 |
| Buffaloes | 110,361,500 | 110,182,537 | 110,048,310 | 109,851,678 | 109,719,011 | −0.1 |
| Sheep | 69,463,590 | 70,251,908 | 72,119,150 | 74,260,615 | 68,099,762 | −0.5 |
|
Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2022 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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| Meat | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicken | 3,444,763 | 3,766,940 | 4,061,790 | 4,179,963 | 3,550,636 | 0.8 |
| Buffalo | 1,583,637 | 1,573,521 | 1,656,529 | 1,624,281 | 1,599,559 | 0.3 |
| Cattle | 921,743 | 911,875 | 913,813 | 915,640 | 916,581 | −0.1 |
|
Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2022 *CAGR:Compound Annual Growth Rate
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Trade
In 2021, India was a net exporter of agri-food and seafood products, with total imports of Can$38.2 billion, and exports of Can$62.8 billion, making for a total trade surplus of Can$24.6 billion. India's imports of agri-food and seafood products increased at a CAGR of 2.0% from 2017-2021. In 2021, India's largest imports were palm oil, soya-bean oil, and sunflower oil, all products for which the proportion supplied by Canada was negligible or non-existent. The top 5 suppliers of agri-food and seafood products to India were Indonesia (14.9%), Malaysia (13.9%), Argentina (10.7%), Ukraine (6.1%) and the United States (5.7%).
Canada was India's eighteenth largest supplier of agri-food and seafood products in 2021, with Can$546.3 million in exports (1.4% market share). In 2021, India had a trade surplus with Canada in agri-food and seafood products, totalling Can$143.5 million. The top category of agri-food and seafood exports from Canada to India in 2021 was dried and shelled lentils, with a value of Can$510.4 million (down from Can$640.9 million in 2017). This was 93.4% of Canada's agri-food and seafood exports to India for 2021, and Canada had a 77.4% share of India's imports of this product. Canada's next largest exports were solid lactose and lactose syrup (Can$ 6.8 million), fresh or dried almonds in shell (Can$6.7 million), and dog or cat food (Can$3.0 million).
Canadian exports of agri-food and seafood have contracted from 2017-2021 by a CAGR of −19.8%, after falling from Can$1.3 billion in 2017 to Can$167.7 million in 2018, and partially recovering to Can$546.3 million by 2021. In 2017, dried and shelled peas were Canada's top agri-food export to India, with a value of Can$643.5 million (48.8% of Canadian exports) but had fallen to Can$37.2 million as of 2020, accounting for most of the decline in Canadian exports to India over the historic period.
| HS Codes | Commodity | Import value Can$ millions | Top suppliers and market share | Canada's share % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||
| 151110 | crude palm oil | 10,410.9 | Malaysia: 46.3% | Indonesia: 38.6% | Thailand 7.0% | |
| 150710 | crude soya-bean oil, | 5,158.8 | Argentina: 68.2% | Brazil: 16.2% | Switzerland 6.0% | |
| 151211 | crude sunflower-seed or safflower oil | 2,999.4 | Ukraine: 76.6% | Russia: 12.6% | Argentina 9.7% | |
| 151190 | palm oil and its fractions | 1,574.8 | Indonesia: 59.3% | Nepal: 18.8% | Malaysia: 16.2% | |
| 080131 | fresh or dried cashew nuts, in shell | 1,405.1 | Benin: 22.2% | Ghana: 15.3% | Guinea-Bissau: 12.3% | |
| 080211 | fresh or dried almonds in shell | 1,083.6 | United States: 86.75% | Australia: 11.4% | Afghanistan 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 071331 | dried, shelled beans | 846.0 | Myanmar: 70.2% | Mozambique 7.5% | Tanzania 5.6% | |
| 150790 | soya-bean oil and its fractions, | 779.2 | Nepal: 95.3% | Bangladesh 4.5% | Germany 0.1% | |
| 071340 | dried, shelled lentils, | 659.1 | Canada: 77.4% | Australia: 20.1% | United States 1.1% | 77.4% |
| 520100 | cotton, neither carded nor combed | 650.5 | United States: 43.9% | Egypt: 28.3% | Australia: 12.8% | |
| Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2022 | ||||||
In 2021, India imported Can$28.6 billion worth of processed food and beverages, with Canada supplying Can$26.8 million (0.1%) of that total. India's largest suppliers of packaged foods were Malaysia (Can$5.3 billion), Indonesia (Can$5.3 billion), Argentina (Can$4.1 billion), Ukraine (Can$2.3 billion), which collectively held 65.2% of the market.
Imports of processed food increased by a CAGR of 7.2% from 2017-2021, with most of the growth attributable to growth in imports of crude palm oil, which grew at a CAGR of 15.1% and was the top import in 2021. The fastest growing import from 2017-2021 of the top ten processed foods was soya-bean oil, which grew at a CAGR of 486.2%, with the value of India's imports rising from Can$0.7 million in 2017 to Can$779.2 million in 2021. Oilcake and other solid residues also saw explosive growth, rising from Can$13.8 million in 2020 to Can$453.9 million in 2021 (y-o-y growth of 3,189.1%).
| HS Codes | Products | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | CAGR* % 2017-2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Processed food and beverage imports | 21,632.0 | 19,203.2 | 19,042.0 | 20,303.0 | 28,572.5 | 7.2 | |
| 151110 | crude palm oil | 5,925.5 | 5,180.6 | 4,713.6 | 6,555.2 | 10,410.9 | 15.1 |
| 150710 | crude soya-bean oil | 3,571.9 | 2,935.5 | 2,929.8 | 3,698.1 | 5,158.8 | 9.6 |
| 151211 | crude sunflower-seed or safflower oil | 2,424.2 | 2,477.5 | 2,382.3 | 2,768.1 | 2,999.4 | 5.5 |
| 151190 | palm oil and its fractions | 2,854.5 | 1,930.6 | 2,459.4 | 247.7 | 1,574.8 | −13.8 |
| 080211 | fresh or dried almonds in shell | 904.6 | 988.9 | 1,063.5 | 1,165.0 | 1,083.6 | 4.6 |
| 150790 | soya-bean oil and its fractions | 0.7 | 16.6 | 75.7 | 280.1 | 779.2 | 486.2 |
| 230990 | preparations of a kind used in animal feeding | 436.1 | 558.3 | 532.6 | 496.1 | 593.0 | 8.0 |
| 230400 | oilcake and other solid residues | 3.1 | 3.0 | 20.7 | 13.8 | 453.9 | 248.9 |
| 220720 | denatured ethyl alcohol and other spirits | 331.2 | 344.6 | 418.4 | 409.5 | 393.4 | 4.4 |
| 080410 | fresh or dried dates | 312.7 | 332.4 | 216.5 | 299.3 | 302.6 | −0.8 |
|
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2022 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Packaged food retail sales
In 2021, sales of packaged food in India were valued at US$83.8 billion. From 2017 to 2021, sales of packaged food increased by a CAGR of 13.4%, and sales are expected to increase at a CAGR of 12.8% from 2022-2026, reaching US$155.4 billion in 2026.
From 2017 to 2021, staple foods was the category which saw the fastest growth, having seen sales grow from US$7.5 billion to US$14.6 billion (CAGR of 18.2%). Growth in staple foods was primarily driven by growth in rice pasta and noodles, which saw sales grow at a CAGR of 22.0% from 2017 to 2021, and in 2021 made up 74.8% of staple foods sales. In 2021, cooking ingredients and meals was the largest category of packaged food, with US$26.6 billion in sales, dominated by the subcategory edible oils, which had US$22.1 billion in sales (83.1% of cooking ingredients and meals). Dairy products and alternatives was the second largest category, with US$25.7 billion in sales. Dairy was the largest subcategory, with US$24.8 billion in sales. From 2022 to 2026, staple foods is the category expected to once again have he fastest growth rate, with sales growing by a CAGR of 14.0%.
| Category | 2017 | 2021 | CAGR* % 2017-2021 | 2022 | 2026 | CAGR* % 2022-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total - Packaged food | 50,659.5 | 83,834.8 | 13.4 | 95,811.4 | 155,380.7 | 12.8 |
| Cooking ingredients and meals | 14,884.4 | 26,572.2 | 15.6 | 30,522.9 | 50,883.1 | 13.6 |
| Edible oils | 12,475.0 | 22,089.9 | 15.4 | 25,467.9 | 43,112.6 | 14.1 |
| Ready meals | 99.2 | 170.9 | 14.6 | 195.7 | 315.2 | 12.7 |
| Sauces, dressings and condiments | 2,025.9 | 3,747.6 | 16.6 | 4,218.1 | 6,430.2 | 11.1 |
| Soup | 70.8 | 122.1 | 14.6 | 138.9 | 215.4 | 11.6 |
| Sweet spreads | 213.5 | 441.8 | 19.9 | 502.3 | 809.6 | 12.7 |
| Dairy products and alternatives | 16,096.5 | 25,692.8 | 12.4 | 29,181.9 | 46,239.6 | 12.2 |
| Baby food | 576.6 | 843.8 | 10.0 | 916.6 | 1,255.4 | 8.2 |
| Dairy | 15,519.9 | 24,849.0 | 12.5 | 28,265.3 | 44,984.2 | 12.3 |
| Snacks | 12,199.0 | 16,948.2 | 8.6 | 18,997.3 | 29,375.7 | 11.5 |
| Confectionery | 2,576.4 | 3,331.9 | 6.6 | 3,629.8 | 4,922.6 | 7.9 |
| Ice cream and frozen desserts | 1,534.3 | 1,305.5 | −4.0 | 1,632.9 | 3,317.4 | 19.4 |
| Savory snacks | 3,846.2 | 6,237.0 | 12.8 | 7,070.8 | 11,561.5 | 13.1 |
| Sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks | 4,242.1 | 6,073.8 | 9.4 | 6,663.8 | 9,574.3 | 9.5 |
| Staple foods | 7,479.6 | 14,621.6 | 18.2 | 17,109.3 | 28,882.3 | 14.0 |
| Baked goods | 1,908.4 | 2,692.2 | 9.0 | 2,946.4 | 4,055.2 | 8.3 |
| Breakfast cereals | 292.5 | 455.2 | 11.7 | 545.7 | 1,021.6 | 17.0 |
| Processed fruit and vegetables | 173.3 | 262.4 | 10.9 | 290.3 | 400.5 | 8.4 |
| Processed meat and seafood | 163.6 | 278.2 | 14.2 | 312.9 | 472.7 | 10.9 |
| Rice, pasta and noodles | 4,941.9 | 10,933.6 | 22.0 | 13,014.0 | 22,932.3 | 15.2 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Health and wellness retail sales
Retail sales in the health and wellness sector grew by a CAGR of 12.8% from 2017-2021 and is forecast to grow by a CAGR of 13.8% from 2022-2026. The sector saw retail sales of US$10.3 billion in 2021, expected to reach US$19.7 billion in 2026. The organic category saw the fastest growth from 2017-2021, with sales growing by a CAGR of 19.5%, and the sector is also expected to see the fastest growth from 2022-2026 (CAGR of 20.7%). However, the sector remained relatively small, making up 1.0% of total sales. Fortified and functional was the largest category in 2021, with US$4.8 billion in sales(47.1% of the sector) followed by naturally healthy with US$4.6 billion in sales (45.0% of total sales).
| Category | 2017 | 2021 | CAGR* % 2017-2021 | 2022 | 2026 | CAGR* % 2022-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 6,338.3 | 10,274.2 | 12.8 | 11,728.2 | 19,679.5 | 13.8 |
| Better for you (BFY) | 406.3 | 679.9 | 13.7 | 828.8 | 1,641.2 | 18.6 |
| Better for you beverages | 5.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 |
| Better for you packaged food | 400.4 | 674.0 | 13.9 | 822.6 | 1,634.1 | 18.7 |
| Fortified/functional (FF) | 3,283.7 | 4,842.6 | 10.2 | 5,360.7 | 7,805.2 | 9.8 |
| Fortified/functional beverages | 1,099.0 | 1,588.8 | 9.7 | 1,753.9 | 2,521.9 | 9.5 |
| Fortified/functional packaged food | 2,184.7 | 3,253.8 | 10.5 | 3,606.8 | 5,283.3 | 10.0 |
| Free from | 20.6 | 27.4 | 7.4 | 29.1 | 35.4 | 5.0 |
| Free from allergens | 6.2 | 10.4 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 17.6 | 10.5 |
| Free from dairy | 14.3 | 17.0 | 4.4 | 17.3 | 17.8 | 0.7 |
| Free from gluten | ||||||
| Free from lactose | ||||||
| Free from meat | ||||||
| Naturally healthy (NH) | 2,576.5 | 4,620.0 | 15.7 | 5,382.7 | 9,928.0 | 16.5 |
| Naturally healthy beverages | 486.1 | 1,065.2 | 21.7 | 1,305.4 | 3,193.3 | 25.1 |
| Naturally healthy packaged food | 2,090.4 | 3,554.8 | 14.2 | 4,077.3 | 6,734.8 | 13.4 |
| Organic | 51.2 | 104.3 | 19.5 | 126.9 | 269.7 | 20.7 |
| Organic beverages | 41.6 | 85.9 | 19.9 | 104.2 | 224.9 | 21.2 |
| Organic packaged food | 9.6 | 18.4 | 17.7 | 22.8 | 44.9 | 18.5 |
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Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Resources
- Euromonitor international, 2021
- Global Trade Tracker, 2021
- FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2022
Market Overview – India
Global Analysis Report
Prepared by: Brendan Dwyer, Student
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