Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.
Market snapshot
In 2019, American largest crop was maize, with total production of 347.0 million tonnes. The country's maize production has increased slightly since 2015 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.1%. Seed cotton saw the largest CAGR increases from 2015 to 2019, at a CAGR of 11.2%. While sorghum experienced the largest CAGR decreases from 2015 to 2019 at a CAGR of −13.0%.
In terms of meat production, beef and bison meat had the largest CAGR increase from 2015 to 2019 at 4.0%, while poultry recorded increases of 2.1%.
In 2020, American total agri-food and seafood imports from the world were valued at US$172.4 billion, of which US$28.7 billion was from Canada, representing 16.6% of American total imports.
American agri-food and seafood imports from Canada increased at a CAGR of 2.8% from 2016 to 2020, reaching US$28.7 billion. American top imports from Canada in 2020 were bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and other bakers' wares (US$2,2 billion), fresh/chilled bovine meat (US$1.4 billion) and canola oil (US$1.3 billion). Canadian canola oil and oilcake represented almost 100% of American total global imports of canola oil and oilcake, and Canadian frozen French fries accounted for 86.3% of American total global imports of frozen French fries.
Total sales of packaged food in in the United States increased by a CAGR of 4.6% over the period from 2016 to 2020 and are expected to remain steady through to 2025.
Total retail sales in the health and wellness food and drink products grew by a CAGR of 3.5% for the period 2016 to 2020, and are expected to grow by a CAGR of 3.1% between 2021 and 2025.
Production
In 2019, American largest crop was maize, with total production of 347.0 million tonnes. The country's maize production has increased slightly since 2015 at a CAGR of 0.1%. Seed cotton saw the largest CAGR increases from 2015 to 2019, at a CAGR of 11.2%. While sorghum experienced the largest CAGR decreases from 2015 to 2019 at a CAGR of −13.0%.
In terms of meat production, beef and buffalo meat had the largest CAGR increase from 2015 to 2019 at 4.0%, while poultry recorded increases of 2.1%.
| Top 10 crops | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | CAGR* % 2015-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maize | 345.5 | 412.3 | 371.1 | 364.3 | 347.0 | 0.1 |
| Soybeans | 107.0 | 116.9 | 120.1 | 120.5 | 96.8 | −2.5 |
| Wheat | 55.8 | 62.8 | 47.4 | 51.3 | 52.3 | −1.6 |
| Sugar cane | 29.1 | 29.1 | 30.2 | 31.3 | 29.0 | −0.1 |
| Sugar beet | 32.1 | 33.5 | 32.0 | 30.2 | 25.9 | −5.2 |
| Potatoes | 20.0 | 20.4 | 20.5 | 20.4 | 19.2 | −1.1 |
| Seed cotton | 8.5 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 11.2 |
| Tomatoes | 14.6 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 10.9 | −7.1 |
| Sorghum | 15.2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | −13.0 |
| Rice, paddy | 8.7 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 8.4 | −1.0 |
|
Source: FAOSTAT, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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| Meats | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | CAGR* % 2015-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beef and bison meat | 10,777.6 | 11,470.6 | 11,907.2 | 12,219.2 | 12,348.7 | 3.5 |
| Meat, poultry | 21,017.4 | 21,483.1 | 21,914.2 | 22,298.2 | 22,857.6 | 2.1 |
| Sheep and Goat meat | 79.3 | 79.0 | 76.9 | 80.9 | 79.4 | 0.0 |
|
Source: FAOSTAT, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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| Livestock | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | CAGR* % 2015-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beef and bison | 29,320.3 | 31,188.8 | 32,817.4 | 33,703.4 | 34,264.8 | 4.0 |
| Poultry | 9,082,830.0 | 9,179,509.0 | 9,319,010.0 | 9,425,417.0 | 9,594,453.0 | 1.4 |
| Sheep and goat | 2,909.3 | 2,910.1 | 2,871.9 | 2,978.9 | 3,088.4 | 1.5 |
|
Source: FAOSTAT, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Trade
In 2020, American total agri-food and seafood imports from the world were valued at US$172.4 billion, of which US$28.7 billion was from Canada, representing 16.6% of American total imports.
Canada imported US$21.8 billion in agri-food and seafood imports from the Unites States, while Canada's net exports were valued at US$28.6 billion in 2020. Thus Canada has US$6.8 billion trade surplus with the Unites States in 2020.
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unites States imports from the world | 146,812.4 | 155,629.0 | 165,081.8 | 168,340.3 | 172,404.8 | 4.1% |
| Unites States imports from Canada | 25,684.8 | 26,561.6 | 27,319.0 | 28,131.0 | 28,687.0 | 2.8% |
| Gross export gap with Canada | 121,127.6 | 129,067.3 | 137,762.8 | 140,209.4 | 143,717.8 | 4.4% |
|
Source: Global Trade Tracker, as of June 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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American agri-food and seafood imports from Canada increased at a CAGR of 2.8% from 2016 to 2020, reaching US$28.7 billion. American top imports from Canada in 2020 were bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and other bakers' wares (US$2,2 billion), fresh/chilled bovine meat (US$1.4 billion) and canola oil (US$1.3 billion). Canadian canola oil and oilcake represented almost 100% of American total global imports of canola oil and oilcake, and Canadian frozen French fries accounted for 86.3% of American total global imports of frozen French fries.
| HS code | Description | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | Canada's market share (%) 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total - Canada | 25,684.8 | 26,561.6 | 27,319.0 | 28,131.0 | 28,687.0 | 2.8 | 16.6 | |
| 190590 | bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and other bakers' wares | 1,393.6 | 1,559.2 | 1,849.0 | 2,061.3 | 2,152.6 | 11.5 | 51.1 |
| 020130 | fresh/chilled bovine meat, boneless | 970.0 | 1,041.1 | 1,186.4 | 1,365.6 | 1,353.0 | 8.7 | 45.1 |
| 151419 | canola oil | 1,206.9 | 1,358.6 | 1,302.1 | 1,333.5 | 1,348.7 | 2.8 | 99.2 |
| 230641 | canola oilcake | 927.6 | 859.6 | 930.8 | 889.2 | 962.9 | 0.9 | 99.6 |
| 200410 | frozen French fries | 786.6 | 862.2 | 929.8 | 905.6 | 946.1 | 4.7 | 86.3 |
| 010229 | live cattle (excluding pure-bred for breeding) | 1,030.5 | 816.8 | 757.9 | 917.4 | 825.7 | −5.4 | 47.0 |
| 210690 | food preparations | 633.3 | 722.8 | 790.8 | 829.3 | 825.7 | 6.9 | 12.9 |
| 030614 | frozen crabs | 545.3 | 683.9 | 619.6 | 717.2 | 698.1 | 6.4 | 41.7 |
| 180620 | chocolate, > 2 kg | 553.9 | 549.7 | 519.4 | 552.4 | 590.2 | 1.6 | 73.4 |
| 180690 | chocolate, <= 2 kg | 428.4 | 448.3 | 490.6 | 543.4 | 522.4 | 5.1 | 42.1 |
|
Source: Global Trade Tracker, as of June 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Retail sales
Total sales of packaged food in in the United States increased by a CAGR of 4.6% over the period from 2016 to 2020 and are expected to remain steady through to 2025.
Dairy, baked goods and savoury snacks were the top three packaged food categories in 2020, recording sales of US$74.0 billion, US$66.9 billion, and US$55.0 billion, respectively. rice, pasta and noodles had the largest CAGR gain for the period from 2016 to 2020, at 9.0%.
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packaged Food | 386.2 | 462.1 | 4.6 | 444.0 | 503.0 | 3.2 |
| Cooking ingredients and meals | 72.1 | 91.7 | 6.2 | 86.8 | 100.3 | 3.7 |
| Edible oils | 3.6 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| Ready meals | 34.9 | 45.4 | 6.8 | 43.5 | 50.6 | 3.8 |
| Sauces, dressings and condiments | 24.7 | 31.0 | 5.9 | 29.3 | 34.3 | 4.0 |
| Soup | 4.6 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 |
| Sweet spreads | 4.4 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 |
| Dairy products and alternatives | 73.0 | 82.0 | 3.0 | 78.5 | 88.1 | 2.9 |
| Baby food | 7.2 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 2.1 |
| Dairy | 65.8 | 74.0 | 3.0 | 70.7 | 79.6 | 3.0 |
| Staple foods | 126.5 | 154.6 | 5.1 | 142.7 | 160.2 | 2.9 |
| Baked goods | 58.2 | 66.9 | 3.5 | 63.7 | 71.8 | 3.0 |
| Breakfast cereals | 10.7 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 2.9 |
| Processed fruit and vegetables | 14.7 | 17.5 | 4.4 | 17.0 | 19.5 | 3.5 |
| Processed meat and seafood | 34.8 | 46.2 | 7.4 | 41.2 | 45.8 | 2.7 |
| Rice, pasta and noodles | 8.0 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 2.2 |
| Packaged food rolling update - snacks | 114.6 | 131.8 | 3.5 | 132.1 | 153.6 | 3.8 |
| Confectionery | 33.2 | 35.8 | 1.9 | 36.8 | 43.5 | 4.2 |
| Ice cream and frozen desserts | 15.8 | 18.6 | 4.1 | 17.7 | 20.1 | 3.2 |
| Savoury snacks | 45.7 | 55.0 | 4.7 | 55.1 | 62.7 | 3.3 |
| Sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks | 19.9 | 22.4 | 3.0 | 22.5 | 27.4 | 5.1 |
|
Source: Euromonitor, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Total retail sales in the health and wellness food and drink products grew by a CAGR of 3.5% for the period 2016 to 2020, and are expected to grow by a CAGR of 3.1% between 2021 and 2025.
The fortified/functional food and drink products represented the largest category with retail sales valued at US$67.9 billion in 2020 and are expected to remain the largest category in the forecast period.
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 167.0 | 191.7 | 3.5 | 191.7 | 216.3 | 3.1 |
| Better for you (BFY) | 40.9 | 40.9 | 0.0 | 40.3 | 41.4 | 0.7 |
| Better for you beverages | 11.7 | 12.0 | 0.7 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 2.1 |
| Better for you packaged food | 29.2 | 28.9 | −0.3 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 0.1 |
| Fortified/functional (FF) | 60.0 | 67.9 | 3.2 | 69.0 | 78.0 | 3.1 |
| Fortified/functional beverages | 27.7 | 33.7 | 5.0 | 35.9 | 43.9 | 5.1 |
| Fortified/functional packaged food | 32.3 | 34.2 | 1.5 | 33.1 | 34.1 | 0.8 |
| Free from | 9.5 | 14.3 | 10.7 | 14.1 | 18.2 | 6.7 |
| Free from allergens | 1.2 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 4.2 |
| Free from dairy | 2.4 | 3.7 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 9.7 |
| Free from gluten | 2.8 | 4.0 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.9 |
| Free from lactose | 2.0 | 2.7 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 |
| Free from meat | 1.1 | 2.2 | 18.9 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 8.1 |
| Naturally healthy (NH) | 40.2 | 45.9 | 3.4 | 46.0 | 51.6 | 2.9 |
| Naturally healthy beverages | 18.6 | 20.3 | 2.2 | 21.0 | 23.6 | 3.0 |
| Naturally healthy packaged food | 21.6 | 25.6 | 4.3 | 25.0 | 27.9 | 2.9 |
| NH cereal bars | 2.5 | 2.5 | −0.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Organic | 16.4 | 22.7 | 8.5 | 22.5 | 27.1 | 4.8 |
| Organic beverages | 1.4 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 5.4 |
| Organic packaged food | 15.0 | 21.1 | 8.9 | 20.7 | 25.0 | 4.7 |
|
Source: Euromonitor, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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For more information
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ben.berry@agr.gc.ca
More on Canada's agriculture and agri-food sectors:
Canada's agriculture sectors
Information on the agriculture industry by sector. Data on international markets. Initiatives to support awareness of the industry in Canada. How the department engages with the industry.
Resources
- FAOSTAT, 2021, Agricultural Production – United States
- Euromonitor, 2021
- Global Trade Tracker, 2021
Market Overview – United States
Global Analysis Report
Prepared by: Zhiduo, Wang
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