Market Overview – Japan

Country profile

The Japanese economy is the fourth largest in the world with a real GDP of US$5.7 trillion in 2023, growing by 1.9%.

Japan's population is estimated to be 123,201,945, decreasing by 0.4%. Japan is one of the fastest aging countries in the world with a median age of 49.9 years. More than three quarters of the population live in cities on the coastal fringes of Japan's four mountainous, heavily-wooded islands. Tokyo is the largest city in Japan representing 30% of the total population. The Kanto region, including Tokyo, is expected to remain the largest consumer market in Japan by 2040, accounting for 37.7% of total consumer expenditure.

Production

Rice is Japan's primary domestic crop, with production volumes of 10.3 million tonnes in 2022, decreasing by 0.6% annually between 2018 to 2022. Japan wheat production grew fastest by 6.8% annually, followed by sugar cane (2.3%).

Poultry is Japan's largest livestock with 321.9 million heads in 2022, growing by 0.8% annually over 2018-22. Swine and cattle are Japan's second and third largest livestock. Chicken is Japan's primary meat, producing 2.4 million tonnes in 2022, followed by pork and beef.

Trade

Japan is a net importer of agri-food and seafood products. In 2023, Japan's agri-food and seafood trade deficit was $93.2 billion with imports valued at $105.0 billion, and exports at $11.8 billion. The United States (U.S.) and China are Japan's primary agri-food and seafood suppliers with values of US$19.1 billion and US$12.4 billion respectively in 2023. Canada is Japan's sixth largest supplier of agri-food and seafood products with values of US$5.5 billion in 2023. Top imports from Canada are pork, canola seeds, wheat, soy beans, and frozen pork.

In 2023, Japan's top agri-food and seafood imports from the world were corn, tobacco products, poultry offal, soybeans, and frozen pork. Key supplying countries were the U.S., China, Canada, Thailand, and Australia.

In 2023, Japan's top agri-food and seafood exports were food preparations, scallops, preparations for sauces, whiskies, and baked goods. Top export markets were China, the U.S, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Canada was Japan's twelfth largest export market for agri-food and seafood with values of $182.1 million.

Canada's performance

Canada exported $4.4 billion in agri-food and seafood products to Japan in 2023. Top provincial suppliers are Saskatchewan (35.8% market share), Alberta (33.6%) and Manitoba (14.4%). Canola seeds are the largest export to Japan, mainly from Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba. Wheat is the second largest export, worth US$868.6 million, also mainly from Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba.

Retail sales

Retail sales of packaged food in Japan were valued at US$154.5 billion in 2023 growing by 2.7% annually over 2019 to 2023. Sales growth are expected to slow to 2.1% annually over 2024 to 2028 to reach US$172.1 billion by 2028. The top three packaged food categories in Japan in 2023 are processed meat, seafood and alternatives valued at US$33.7 billion, increasing 2.3% annually over 2019-23, followed by baked goods, and meals and soups. Japan's packaged food market is expected to remain positive over 2024 to 2028 as more consumers continue to work from home post-pandemic and the demand for convenient products with preventative benefits for the health-conscious and ageing population remain.

Opportunities for Canada

The benefits of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

The CPTPP gives Canadian agriculture and agri-food products preferential market access to key export markets in the CPTPP, including Japan. Under the agreement, tariffs will be eliminated or reduced on a wide range of Canadian agri-food and seafood exports, including meat, grains, pulses, maple syrup, and wines and spirits.

The first six CPTPP parties (Canada, Australia, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and Singapore) implemented their first tariff cuts on December 30, 2018, eliminating duties on 89% of tariff lines between them, followed by a second tariff cut on January 1, 2019 (except for Japan, which made its second tariff cut on April 1, 2019). Once the agreement is fully implemented, 94% of Canada's exports of agriculture and agri-food products to CPTPP countries will be duty-free. For further information, please consult CPTPP benefits for Canada. Prior to exporting, one of the first steps before entering the market is to determine whether or not a product is authorized for sale in Japan. For example, there could be restrictions due to phytosanitary or food safety related concerns that can prevent a product from being imported. In addition, products must also meet Japanese regulations for food ingredients, especially with regard to food additives. Exporters are therefore strongly encouraged to work with the local import agent, distributor, and the end-user to ensure their products are authorized for sale and are in compliance with Japanese regulations, and that all required documentation has been completed. For more information, please consult Food exports (Canadian Food Inspection Agency) and the Step-by-Step Guide to Exporting (The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service).

The CPTPP commits to helping small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) take advantage of the agreement's commercial opportunities. SMEs represent over 99% of Canadian businesses and almost 90% of all private sector jobs in Canada. For further information, please consult Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and small and medium-sized enterprises. Of note, funding and support programs, such as CanExport SMEs, are available to interested Canadian SMEs to assist with international market development activities. If you interested in exporting and have questions about exporting your agriculture or food products, or are looking for support, please contact the Market Access Secretariat, Agri-food and Agriculture Canada at aafc.mas-sam.aac@canada.ca.

For more information

The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service:

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

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Michelle Jardine, Deputy Director
Indo-Pacific Market Development and Promotion
Agriculture and agri-food Canada
michelle.jardine@agr.gc.ca

Market Overview – Japan
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Kris Clipsham, Market Analyst

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