Sector Trend Analysis – Bakery trends in Canada

Market overview

From 2020 to 2024, per capita consumer expenditure on food in Canada grew at a CAGR of 3.3%, while spending on bread and cereals rose by 2.9%. Growth is expected to slow slightly over the next five years, with food expenditure rising by 2.3% annually and bread and cereals by 2.4%. This softening suggests a maturing bakery market where value growth may increasingly depend on product innovation rather than volume expansion. Per capita disposable income is projected to continue growing steadily at 3.1% annually through 2029, providing a stable base for consumer spending, including on higher-quality or specialty baked goods. However, slower population growth, falling from 2.1% annually (2020 to 2024) to just 0.8% through 2029, may limit total market expansion. Meanwhile, the share of the population with allergies is expected to rise from 35.4% in 2020 to 38.5% in 2029, highlighting a growing demand for gluten-free，allergen-free, and alternative grain bakery products

These trends suggest that future growth in the Canadian bakery market will rely more on product differentiation and targeted innovation. Brands that offer health-oriented, allergen-free, or premium products will be better positioned to capture value in a price-sensitive but health-conscious environment. The consistent rise in disposable income also supports demand for artisanal and functional baked goods, especially among consumers willing to trade up for quality or convenience. At the same time, slowing population growth and softening food expenditure point to increased competition for market share, making brand positioning and consumer segmentation more critical. Private label offerings, especially those that combine affordability with health or sustainability claims, may also gain traction as consumers look for value without compromising on quality.

Euromonitor's 2024 consumer survey finds that Canadian food and drink shoppers are highly price-sensitive, with 63% citing low price as their top purchase driver–well above the 44% global average–yet health, quality, and innovation remain important. Consumers are increasingly focused on well-being, especially in light of Canada's ageing population, and are seeking products that support better nutrition, fitness, appearance, sleep, and healthy ageing. Although overweight and obesity rates reached 38% and 36% of the adult population in 2023, only 37% report monitoring their food intake to manage weight, while a higher 53% actively look for healthy ingredients (Euromonitor International, 2024). Dietary habits are shifting, with more consumers adopting specific eating patterns such as vegan, vegetarian, or flexitarian diets. Health, rising food prices, and sustainability concerns are prompting 20% of respondents to reduce their meat consumption, while 9% now eat meat or fish only occasionally (Euromonitor International, 2025).Taste and nutrition are key purchase factors, with 41% influenced by health benefits and 40% by superior taste. At the same time, price pressures are encouraging 26% of consumers to seek out low-cost or private label grocery products. Cooking and baking at home is also on the rise, with 73% doing so at least once a week, although convenience still plays a role–39% prepare or reheat ready meals, and a significant share continue to order food for delivery (24%) or takeaway (29%). Millennials are leading trends in convenience and personalisation–50% are willing to pay more to save time, 52% want tailored products, and 47% enjoy engaging with brands to influence product innovation. Interest in private label products is rising, with 27% planning to buy more, and with only 38% expressing a preference for branded goods, there is room to grow premium private label offerings (Euromonitor International, 2025). Despite economic pressures, strong opportunities remain for brands offering healthy, high-quality, and personalised food and drink solutions.

Trade overview

Global baked goods imports expanded strongly from 2020 to 2024, rising from Can$49.3 billion to Can$77.6 billion (12.0% CAGR), with growth concentrated in major developed markets. The U.S. led with imports reaching Can$16.0 billion (20.6% share), posting the fastest growth among top markets at 16.8% annually, reflecting strong demand for diverse bakery products. The United Kingdom (8.1% share) and Belgium (3.5% share) also recorded double-digit growth rates above 14%, pointing to buoyant premium and specialty bakery demand. Canada ranked sixth globally at Can$3.2 billion (4.1% share), growing at 9.8% annually, suggesting steady but slower expansion than top performers. Europe remained a dominant importing region with Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Spain collectively accounting for 25.0% of global imports, underscoring its central role in baked goods trade. Overall, rapid growth in high-income markets signals strong opportunities for exporters, especially in value-added, innovative, and premium bakery segments.

Global baked goods exports grew from Can$50.8 billion in 2020 to Can$78.2 billion in 2024 (11.4% CAGR), with growth led by both established and emerging exporters. Germany remained the largest supplier at Can$8.0 billion (10.2% share) but posted a modest 8.4% annual growth, trailing the global average. Canada ranked second with Can$7.7 billion (9.8% share) and one of the fastest growth rates at 16.4%. Italy (8.2% share) and Spain (3.8% share) also recorded robust double-digit growth above 14%. Mexico posted the fastest growth among top exporters at 18.2% annually. Belgium, Poland, and the Netherlands maintained solid positions with growth rates near or above the global average, while the U.S. lagged at 7.5% growth.

Canada's baked goods imports rose from Can$2.2 billion in 2020 to Can$3.2 billion in 2024 (9.3% CAGR), driven by both dominant suppliers and fast-emerging sources. The U.S. remained Canada's primary partner, supplying 68.4% of imports in 2024, though its 7.2% growth rate trailed the overall market, suggesting room for competitive displacement. Mexico (4.4% share) and Italy (3.8% share) were standout performers, with rapid growth of 17.9% and 21.2% annually, respectively. South Korea, while smaller at 1.3% share, grew the fastest at 21.8%. India, China, and the United Kingdom also posted double-digit growth, reflecting diversification beyond North American and traditional European sources.

Canada's baked goods exports surged from Can$4.2 billion in 2020 to Can$7.7 billion in 2024 (16.6% CAGR), fueled overwhelmingly by the U.S., which absorbed 96.6% of shipments and matched the overall growth rate. While the U.S. remains the anchor market, diversification is emerging in high-growth but smaller destinations. Mexico posted explosive growth of 150.3% annually to reach Can$106.0 million (1.4% share). South Korea (26.7% CAGR), Chile (23.3%), and Ireland (189.3%)–albeit from small bases–signal growing opportunities in Asia-Pacific and niche premium markets. Japan and Argentina also recorded strong double-digit growth, while the United Kingdom contracted by 4.3% annually.

Market size of baked goods in Canada

In 2024, Canada's baked goods market experiences a return to positive volume growth, underpinned by strong baseline demand, stabilizing prices amid lower inflation, and ongoing population growth, including a steady influx of immigrants. Bread emerges as the category with the strongest sales, particularly unpackaged flat breads such as pita, roti, and tortillas, reflecting the preferences of diverse immigrant communities and supported by the expansion of ethnic grocery stores in immigrant-centric areas. Health and wellness trends continue to shape consumer behavior, with rising demand for gluten-free, keto-friendly, and other "better-for-you" options prompting manufacturers to reformulate products to meet evolving tastes and broaden appeal. In terms of brand dynamics, private labels like President's Choice maintain their strength by offering quality products at affordable prices, appealing to budget-conscious consumers, while artisanal baked goods hold the largest overall share, driven by the growth of independent bakeries and chains catering to both local and immigrant consumers, who value perceived health benefits and cleaner, more natural ingredients (Euromonitor International, 2024).

Retail sales of baked goods in Canada showed strong growth from 2020 to 2024, rising from Can$8.9 billion to Can$11.8 billion at a 7.2% CAGR, driven primarily by bread and pastries. Bread sales led with an 8.0% CAGR, fueled by flat bread (9.6%) and leavened bread (7.7%), reflecting consumer interest in both traditional and specialty bread types. Pastries also posted robust growth at 8.1%, signaling rising demand for indulgent bakery items. Other categories like cakes and dessert mixes grew more modestly.The forecast period to 2029 projects slower overall growth at 3.9%, with bread and pastries maintaining healthier growth rates (4.5% and 4.3%, respectively), while cakes and dessert mixes are expected to plateau near 1%. This suggests a maturing market where staple and premium baked goods continue to attract consumer spending, while niche frozen and dessert segments face more limited expansion.

Canada's total volume of baked goods grew moderately from 1.5 million tonnes in 2020 to 1.6 million tonnes in 2024, at a 2.4% CAGR, driven primarily by steady gains in bread and pastries. Bread volume increased 2.7% annually, with leavened bread (2.8%) slightly outpacing flat bread (2.6%), reflecting sustained demand for traditional bread types. Pastries showed the strongest volume growth at 3.5%, indicating rising consumer preference for these items. Conversely, categories like cakes, dessert mixes, and frozen baked goods declined in volume, with negative CAGRs ranging from −0.4% to −2.6%, signaling shrinking consumer demand or shifts toward fresher or alternative products. The forecast to 2029 anticipates slower growth overall (1.9% CAGR), with bread and pastries maintaining modest increases (2.5% and 1.6%, respectively), while cakes and frozen products continue to contract. This trend suggests a maturing market focused on staple bakery items and fresh indulgences, with less emphasis on frozen and processed bakery categories.

Retail sales of health-positioned baked goods in Canada grew steadily from Can$756.3 million in 2020 to Can$894 million in 2024 at a 4.3% CAGR, with growth accelerating sharply to 8.9% CAGR through 2029, reaching Can$1.4 billion. High-growth segments include no sugar (34.8% CAGR to 2024, then 13.7%), gluten-free (8.3% to 8.8%), vegan (16.0% to 13.2%), and organic products, which despite a recent decline, are forecasted to rebound strongly with 15.4% growth from 2024 onward. Conversely, low fat, no fat, and weight management baked goods experienced declines up to 2024 but show modest recovery thereafter. Some traditional claims like natural, good source of minerals, and high protein display mixed trends, with recent declines but positive forecast growth in certain cases. Overall, the data highlights rising consumer demand for clean-label, allergen-friendly, and specialty health baked goods, with innovation and product diversification driving future market expansion.

Over the forecast period, Canada's baked goods market is expected to maintain ongoing positive growth, driven by strong baseline demand from a large and expanding population. Volume sales will benefit from stabilizing unit prices amid lower inflation, while value growth is expected to stabilize. This growth trajectory is further supported by the continued expansion of artisanal bakeries and supermarket innovations, such as Loblaw Cos Ltd's value-focused No Name stores in Ontario, which offer consumers up to 20% savings on everyday essentials through streamlined operations and targeted product assortments. Health and wellness trends will continue to shape the market, with increasing demand for products featuring whole grains, rye, and options catering to dietary preferences like gluten-free, high-protein, and keto-friendly, prompting manufacturers and artisanal bakeries to reformulate offerings to align with these preferences. Foodservice channels are also projected to see modest positive gains, normalizing after pandemic-related fluctuations, aided by more low-cost options, stabilizing inflation, and rebounding tourism. Programs such as the federal Tourism Growth Program, investing CAD108 million over three years, are expected to further support local tourism and foodservice demand, including initiatives for indigenous and non-indigenous communities, SMEs, and not-for-profits (Euromonitor International, 2024).

Competitive landscape

In 2024, Canada's top baked goods companies demonstrated varied growth and market positioning, with artisanal products leading significantly at Can$4.0 billion in retail value and a commanding 34.1% market share, growing at a strong 9.7% CAGR from 2020. Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV remained the largest branded player, reaching Can$1.7 billion and 14.2% market share with steady growth of 6.1%. Private label products held a substantial 20.5% share with Can$2.4 billion in sales and a solid 5.5% CAGR, reflecting retailer focus on in-house brands. George Weston Ltd showed slower growth at 0.7% CAGR but maintained an 8.8% share. Emerging companies like FGF Brands Inc and Kellanova gained traction with modest shares around 1.6-1.7% and recent entry in the market. Smaller players such as Ozery Bakery, Boulangerie St-Methode, and Chudleigh's posted steady growth between 4.6% and 7.9%, supporting niche segments. Mondelez International grew fastest among the smaller players at 15.9% CAGR but still held under 0.5% share. Overall, the Canadian baked goods market remains fragmented, with strong momentum in artisanal and private label sectors driving future growth alongside dominant branded manufacturers.

In 2024, Canada's baked goods brand landscape was led by artisanal products, which dominated with Can$4.0 billion in retail sales and a 34.1% market share, growing strongly at a 9.7% CAGR from 2020. Among named brands, Dempster's (Grupo Bimbo) was the top individual brand, reaching Can$842.4 million and 7.2% market share, growing at a healthy 7.5% CAGR. George Weston Ltd's Wonder Bread followed with Can$334.0 million and 2.8% share, showing steady 4.7% growth. Other notable George Weston brands–Country Harvest (2.0% share) and D'Italiano (1.9%)–also showed consistent moderate growth. Grupo Bimbo's Vachon brand held 2.5% share with slower 2.8% growth, while emerging brands like Casa Mendosa (FGF Brands) and Kellogg's Eggo (Kellanova) gained traction with shares of 1.7% and 1.1%, respectively. Smaller niche brands such as Morning Rounds and La Récolte de St-Méthode maintained modest shares under 1.0% but posted positive growth rates. Private label brands remained highly significant, commanding 20.5% market share and growing steadily at 5.5%. The market is characterized by strong artisanal and private label dominance alongside steady performances by leading branded products.

Distribution channel

Between 2020 and 2024, Canada's baked goods distribution was dominated by retail channels, growing from Can$8.9 billion to Can$11.8 billion at a 7.2% CAGR. Offline retail accounted for the vast majority with Can$11.4 billion in 2024 and a 6.6% CAGR, led primarily by grocery retailers, which contributed Can$11.3 billion. Within grocery retail, supermarkets were the largest segment (Can$5.3 billion, 6.9% CAGR), followed by hypermarkets and discounters growing steadily at 5.5% and 7.2%, respectively. Warehouse clubs posted the strongest growth in offline grocery at 9.8%, indicating increasing bulk purchases. Convenience retailers, including convenience stores and forecourt retailers, grew modestly between 4.5% and 5.7%. Non-grocery retailers, though smaller in size (Can$84.7 million), experienced healthy growth of 8.9%, led by general merchandise stores (10.9%). The fastest-growing channel was retail e-commerce, surging from Can$91.2 million in 2020 to Can$356.0 million in 2024 at a remarkable 40.6% CAGR, highlighting a significant shift toward online baked goods purchases. This trend points to growing consumer preference for convenience and digital access alongside continued strength in traditional grocery outlets.

Product launch analysis

Between 2020 and 2024, baked product launches in Canada showed a slight decline from 701 to 615 annually, with a notable dip in 2023. Baking ingredients and mixes led innovation early on, peaking at 304 launches in 2022 before dropping to 183 in 2024. George Weston, Loblaws, and Sobeys dominated new launches. Most product launches fell into the lower price range (US$0.70-4.69), although mid-priced products ($4.70-8.69) showed steady growth. New packaging and variety/range extensions were the primary launch types, indicating a focus on product differentiation and refresh rather than entirely new items. Kosher claims topped product attributes, followed by no additives/preservatives and allergen-free claims, reflecting strong consumer demand for clean-label and specialty diet options. Shelf-stable products overwhelmingly dominated storage formats, with frozen and chilled launches remaining niche. Overall, innovation trends suggest a cautious market environment emphasizing incremental improvements, health-conscious claims, and packaging innovation.

Examples of new products

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Resources

• Census and Statistics Department, 2025: Statistical Insights: The Secrets of Fruit Imports in Hong Kong
• Euromonitor International, 2025
• Euromonitor International December 2024: Megatrends in Canada
• Euromonitor International June 2024: Consumer Lifestyles in Canada
• Euromonitor International November 2024: Baked Goods in Canada
• Global Trade Tracker, 2025
• Mintel Global New Products Database, 2025

Sector Trend Analysis – Bakery trends in Canada
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Zhi Duo Wang, Market Analyst

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