Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2024-02-16

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (PDF version, 421 KB)

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) January outlook report for the 2023-24 and 2024-25 crop years, based on information available up to February 9, 2024. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. Uncertainty in the world’s grain markets remains above normal as a result of Russian aggression against Ukraine and other geopolitical risks.

For 2023-2024, the outlook incorporates the latest estimates of Statistics Canada’s (STC) stocks of principal field crops in Canada as of December 31, 2023, which was released on February 8, 2024. Stocks of principal field crops were reported by STC to be 7% lower compared to December 31, 2022. The majority of field crops experienced a considerable reduction in stock levels year-over-year, the exceptions being canola, soybeans, and barley. Lower overall stocks were largely the result of decreased production in Western Canada, where adverse weather conditions resulted in a marked decrease in yields. Consequently, carry-out stocks (ending-year inventories) for all principal field crops are expected to decline marginally as the downturn in production offsets a decrease in exports. Prices for most crops are projected to decrease from their 2022-23 levels, pressured by an increase in world stocks.

For 2024-2025, the area seeded to field crops in Canada is forecast to decrease marginally. The area seeded to wheat (excluding durum) and oilseeds is expected to decrease, offset by a forecasted increase in seeded area for pulse and special crops and coarse grains. Average yield and production for most crops are forecast to increase based on a return to trend yields, assuming normal weather conditions. As a result, total field crop production and supply are expected to return to average levels. The projected increase in total supply allows for a rebound in exports while also contributing to an increase in carry-out stocks.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2024. STC is scheduled to release their first estimates of principal field crop area in Canada for the 2024-25 crop year on March 11, 2024.

**Total Grains And Oilseeds^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	27,668	28,255	27,950
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	26,814	27,253	26,947
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.38	3.11	3.24
Production (thousand tonnes)	90,521	84,654	87,296
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note b}	2,991	3,442	2,887
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	102,577	97,420	99,643
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note c}	47,652	42,878	44,383
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note e}	45,600	45,082	45,090
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	9,325	9,461	10,171
Table 1 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Tableau 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops e referrer Table 1 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Pulses and Special Crops^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	3,707	3,376	3,556
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	3,649	3,309	3,484
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.80	1.55	1.79
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,570	5,137	6,233
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note b}	284	333	267
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,900	6,469	7,220
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note b}	5,616	4,685	4,850
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note c}	1,285	1,064	1,235
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	999	720	1,135
Table 2 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 2 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 2 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 2 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Principal Field Crops^{All Principal Field Crops note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{All Principal Field Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	31,376	31,631	31,506
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	30,462	30,563	30,431
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.19	2.94	3.07
Production (thousand tonnes)	97,091	89,791	93,529
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note b}	3,276	3,775	3,154
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	110,476	103,889	106,863
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note b}	53,268	47,563	49,233
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note c}	46,885	46,146	46,325
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	10,324	10,181	11,306
Table 3 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 3 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 3 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 3 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to All Principal Field Crops table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2023-24, Statistics Canada (STC) is reporting durum production at 4.05 million tonnes (Mt), a -30% change year-over-year (y/y) due to a reduction in yields caused by dry and hot weather in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. Total supply is forecast at 4.5 Mt, down 30% y/y and 29% less than the five-year average.

Due to reduced supply and increased competition from other international suppliers (Turkey, Russia, and Kazakhstan), exports are forecast to drop 37% compared to 2022 levels. At 3.2 Mt, supplies are 31% below average. According to STC trade data for the period of August to December 2023, exports of durum stand at 1.3 Mt, 33% less than in 2022-23 and 28% below average, with reduced shipments to Italy (-71%), Morocco (-8%), and the US (-14%). Shipments to Algeria, however, are up 12% compared to the same period in 2022.

Domestic use is forecast at 0.8 Mt on a reduction in feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.45 Mt, 10% more than in 2022, but still 48% below average levels and the second lowest on record.

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), world supply of durum is expected to fall 8% this year with decreased production caused by reduced area globally and poorer than expected harvests, compounded by tight carry-in stocks. Overall, production in 2023-24 is down 9% and opening inventories were 7.4 Mt, level with 2022-23 but down 20% from 2021-22. Total utilization is expected to decline 2% to 33.8 Mt, with a reduction in food use, while carry-out stocks are expected to drop 32% from opening levels. At 5.0 Mt, they are the lowest in over three decades. Total trade is forecast to tighten marginally (-1%) to 8.9 Mt.

The average producer price for No. 1 Canadian Western Amber Durum 13% protein (CWAD, 1, 13%) in Saskatchewan remains $475/tonne.

For 2024-25, durum production is forecast at 5.4 Mt with an uptick in seeded area and trend yields, assuming normal weather patterns. Total supply is forecast at 5.9 Mt, up 32% y/y and 2% above average levels. A recovery in exports to Europe and North Africa is expected, with exports forecast to reach 4.4 Mt; this is 36% above 2022, but still 1% below average levels. Domestic use is pegged at 0.86 Mt and carry-out is unchanged at 0.7 Mt.

The world balance sheet for durum is expected to remain tight into 2024-25 with stagnant production in Europe and North Africa, and relatively steady demand. In France, the largest durum producer in Europe, production could fall below 2023 levels due to reduced planting caused by poor weather. It is currently pegged at 1.2 Mt, below the 1.3 Mt obtained last year. If weather conditions do not improve significantly, production could fall to as low as 0.9 Mt according to the French crop institute, Arvalis. The area sown to durum in France is currently forecast at just 205 thousand hectares which is 10.5% less than in 2022. Drought conditions in Italy, Spain, and Algeria could also result in yield losses, and thus increase demand for imports in those regions.

The average Saskatchewan price for CWAD 1, 13%, remains unchanged at $400/tonne, with upward pressure in the event of any major supply shocks.

**Durum ^{Durum note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,431	2,442	2,477
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,399	2,375	2,418
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.41	1.70	2.25
Production (thousand tonnes)	5,790	4,045	5,435
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note b}	1	25	25
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	6,360	4,479	5,910
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note c}	5,054	3,200	4,350
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Durum note d}	194	200	200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	470	416	447
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note e}	898	829	860
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	409	450	700
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Durum note g}	445	475	400
Tableau 4 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Durum table note a referrer Tableau 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Durum table note b referrer Tableau 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Durum table note c referrer Tableau 4 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Durum table note d referrer Tableau 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Durum table note e referrer Tableau 4 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Durum note f referrer Tableau 4 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Durum note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2023-24, total supply of Canadian wheat is forecast at 31.1 Mt, down from the January report due to a downward revision to beginning stocks. In their latest report, STC downgraded farmers opening inventories for 2023-24 by 145 thousand tonnes. With lower yield and production, despite the 8% increase in seeded area, total supply is down 2% y/y, but remains 1% above the five-year average.

Exports were revised up to 20.3 Mt on a continued strong export pace. However, this remains 2% below 2022 levels and 1% below average. According to STC trade data for the period of August to December 2023, wheat exports totaled 19.2 Mt, 11% more than the same period last year and 23% above the last five-year average, due to an increase in exports to Indonesia (+33%), USA (+45%) and Japan (23%). That being said, there have been reduced exports to China and Bangladesh, who maintain a 13% and 6% share of Canadian total wheat exports. Shipments to China are down 34% compared to the same period last year and those to Bangladesh are down 13%.

Domestic use is forecast at 7.8 Mt, down 3% y/y on a reduction in feed use, and carry-out stocks are tightened to 3.1 Mt.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the global outlook for wheat is for greater supplies, consumption, and trade, but stocks will continue to tighten. Compared to the January report, overall supply was raised 0.5 Mt to 1,057.0 Mt on higher production in Iraq and Argentina. Trade was revised up to 210.7 Mt, with higher exports forecast for Ukraine, Argentina, Australia, and Turkey. Global consumption is forecast to increase to 797.5 Mt based on higher food, seed, and industrial use in India, as a result of government stock sell-off in an attempt to stabilize prices. Ending stocks were tightened another 0.7 Mt, to 259.4 Mt, the lowest since 2015-2016, with decreased inventories in India, China, and Ukraine.

For the US, the forecasted supply for 2023-24 remains unchanged at 68.8 Mt, 3.2% more than in 2022-23. Total use is forecast to rise 2% to 31.1 Mt and trade to drop 4% to 19.7 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 17.9 Mt, up from 17.6 Mt forecasted in January and 15% more than opening levels.

The 2023-24 average producer price in Saskatchewan for Canadian Western Red Spring, no 1, 13.5% protein (CWRS 1, 13.5%) remains unchanged at $345/tonne.

For 2024-25, wheat production is forecast at 28.5 Mt despite a marginal reduction in seeded area, under the assumption of normal weather conditions and a return to trend yields. Total supply is forecast at 31.7 Mt, up 2% y/y and 3% above average levels. Exports are pegged at 20 Mt, constrained by large global supplies. Domestic use is pegged at 8.2 Mt, relatively in-line with the five-year average. carry-out stocks are pegged at 3.5 Mt, up 13% y/y but still 9% below average.

According to the IGC, an increase in output is expected in 2024-25 coupled with an increase in demand for food. The global area sown to wheat is forecast to drop to 221.5 million hectares (Mha), but production to grow 1% thanks to improved yields. Production is currently pegged at 799 Mt. Consumption is forecast to rise marginally, with increased food use countered by a decrease in feed use. Overall food consumption is forecast to rise 1% y/y, in-line with population growth. Trade, on the other hand, is forecast to fall 1% with imports in Brazil, China, and some European countries, capped by local production. Stocks are expected to tighten further reaching a six-year low.

At the time of writing, the USDA has estimated 2024 seeded area to wheat in the US at 13.9 Mha, down 6% y/y, but 3% more than in 2022. US weather conditions continue to improve with drought coverage dropping to only 14% of the total winter wheat area as of February 6. For the leading wheat producing states, Kansas and North Dakota, winter wheat rated in good to excellent conditions is 54% and 60%, respectively.

The forecasted 2024-25 price for CWRS 1, 13.5% in Saskatchewan remains unchanged at $340/tonne.

**Wheat Except Durum ^{Wheat except Durum note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Wheat except durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	7,844	8,496	8,248
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	7,683	8,307	8,083
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.72	3.36	3.52
Production (thousand tonnes)	28,545	27,909	28,490
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note b}	64	100	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	31,702	31,112	31,690
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note c}	20,612	20,250	20,000
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note d}	3,258	3,300	3,300
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	3,858	3,635	4,063
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note e}	7,987	7,762	8,190
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,103	3,100	3,500
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Wheat except Durum note g}	401	345	340
Table 5 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 5 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 5 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 5 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 5 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 5 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 5 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Wheat^{All wheat note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{All wheat note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	10,274	10,938	10,725
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	10,082	10,682	10,501
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.41	2.99	3.23
Production (thousand tonnes)	34,335	31,954	33,926
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note b}	65	125	125
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	38,063	35,591	37,601
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note c}	25,666	23,450	24,350
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note d}	3,453	3,500	3,500
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	4,328	4,051	4,510
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note e}	8,885	8,591	9,051
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,512	3,550	4,200
Table 6 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 6 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 6 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 6 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 6 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 6 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2023-24, Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.7 million tonnes (Mt), down 8% year-over-year (y/y) and 6% below the previous five-year average, largely due to production issues in 2023. Total domestic use is forecast at 5.9 Mt, down slightly y/y and 4% below the average, as a result of a decline in feed use. Exports are predicted at 2.8 Mt, down noticeably from last year and the average, primarily reflecting expected lower exports of barley grain. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.0 Mt, up sharply from 2022-23’s low of 0.7 Mt and the average of 0.8 Mt.

According to the Statistics Canada (STC) February grain and oilseed stocks report, Canadian barley stocks at December 31, 2023, sit at 5.5 Mt, up 6% y/y and 10% above the average, despite a smaller supply for the crop year, as demand (primarily for domestic animal feed and for exports) decreased further in the first five months of the current crop year (August – December).

Total domestic use in the August – December period was pegged at 2.9 Mt, down sharply y/y and from the average, primarily due to slow feed use in the period.

Exports of barley grain in the same period were 983 thousand tonnes (Kt), down sharply from the amount exported during this period for the past three years, as exports to China (the largest destination of Canadian barley exports in recent years) fell sharply in December. So far, the main destinations are China (accounting for 89% of the exports), the US (11%), and Japan (1%). Product exports (grain equivalent) in the same period were 286 Kt, vs 275 Kt a year ago and the five-year average of 295 Kt. The major destinations have been the US (57%), Japan (24%), Mexico (12%), and South Korea (6%).

The feed barley cash price in the Lethbridge, Alberta, feedlot region continued to decline in January and was slightly above $290/tonne (/t) in the first week of February. This is the lowest in three years, consequently pushing down the crop year to-date average below $340/t. For the entire 2023-24 crop year, the average Lethbridge barley price is projected at $320/t, lower than the highs seen in the previous two years.

Worldwide, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) February supply and demand report shows that global supply and demand for animal feed in 2023-24 will be the lowest in five years, but demand for food, seed and industrial use will see a rebound. Export forecasts for Australia and Ukraine, as well as China’s import forecast, have been raised, but remain lower than last year. World ending stocks are projected to close to an all-time low.

For 2024-25, Canadian barley area is projected at 2.8 million hectares (Mha), down 5% y/y and the lowest in six years, primarily based on assumptions of a decline in returns, poor export prospects, and strong seeded area competition for other crops. Production is forecast to increase by 4% to 9.3 Mt, supported by a return to normal yield potential. The expected increases in production and carry-in stocks will more than offset lower imports and push supply up by 6% to 10.3 Mt, which is in-line with the average. Total domestic use is forecast to rise due to increased supply and higher feed use. Exports are projected to remain stable due to strong competition from major barley exporting countries. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.1 Mt, up slightly y/y but well above the average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast at $300/t, down $20/t y/y and the lowest in four years.

Worldwide, 2024 barley production in the EU, the world’s largest barley exporter, is expected to see a sharp recovery from 2023. The USDA’s ten-year baseline projections indicate a stable US barley supply for 2024-25, as a result of expected declines in production and imports offset by an increase in beginning stocks. Additionally, large 2024-25 barley output in Australia and the Black Sea region is anticipated.

**Barley^{Barley note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Barley note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,851	2,963	2,820
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,636	2,699	2,570
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.79	3.30	3.61
Production (thousand tonnes)	9,987	8,896	9,280
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note b}	26	80	30
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	10,556	9,685	10,310
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note c}	3,889	2,780	2,750
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Barley note d}	106	319	319
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	5,598	5,344	5,947
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note e}	5,958	5,905	6,510
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	709	1,000	1,050
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Barley note g}	417	320	300
Table 7 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 7 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 7 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 7 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table7 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 7 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 7 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2023-24, Canadian corn supply is projected at 19.2 Mt, down slightly from last year and the previous five-year average, as a result of a sharp decrease in carry-in stocks, which is partly offset by the increase in production and imports. Due to an expected increase in domestic animal feed consumption, as well as human food and industrial use, total domestic use is forecast at 15.5 Mt, up 3% y/y and 1% above the average. Given ample global corn supplies, exports are projected at 1.85 Mt, decreasing significantly y/y, but remaining above the five-year average. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.9 Mt, up 17% from 2022-23’s low but significantly below the average.

Canadian corn stocks at December 31, 2023, were estimated by STC at 11.3 Mt, down 5% y/y and slightly below the average. This was mainly due to the marked increase in feed consumption in the first four months of the current crop year (September – December), more-than offsetting the significant increase in production and imports.

Domestic use in the September – December period was pegged at 6.1 Mt, noticeably up from 5.3 Mt a year ago and above the five-year average of 5.4 Mt, mainly reflecting the trend of domestic feed use with a relatively small increase in human food and industrial use.

Corn imports in the same period reached 1,240 Kt, up substantially from 465 Kt imported in the same period last year and 815 Kt for the five-year average. Almost all imported corn came from the US and about 90% was destined for the Western provinces. Corn exports in the same period were estimated at 500 Kt, down from 560 Kt a year ago but up from the average of 460 Kt. The major destinations include Ireland (accounting for 48% of the exports), the US (25%), and the United Kingdom (17%), with the majority of the remainder being shipped to Spain and Portugal.

The Chatham corn spot price continued to fall in January and was slightly above $200/t in the first week of February, the lowest in more than three years and pushing down the crop year to-date average to around $225/t. For the entire 2023-24 crop year, the average Chatham corn price is projected at $215/t, a four-year low, primarily due to the weakness in US corn futures prices.

The 2023-24 US corn supply and demand features ample supply, rebounding exports and record high domestic demand. Ending stocks will reach 55 Mt, up sharply from 35 Mt last year and 42 Mt for the five-year average, and the highest in five years. The average farm price was projected by the USDA at US$4.80/bushel (US$189/t), which is sharply lower than the prices in 2022-23 and 2021-22, but higher than those from 2013-14 to 2020-21.

The 2023-24 world corn supply and demand features record high levels for production, supply, animal feed use, and food, seed, and industrial use. The 2023-24 corn production projection for Brazil has been lowered for the second time by 3.0 Mt (2%) but remains historically high. The export outlook for Brazil has also been lowered by 2.0 Mt (4%) but is still a historical high. The export projection for Ukraine has been raised by 2.0 Mt (10%) but is still the lowest in six years. World ending stocks will reach 322 Mt, down more than 3.0 Mt (1%) from the January prediction but up from 300 Mt last year and from 307 Mt for the five-year average, and the highest in five years.

For 2024-25, Canadian corn acreage is projected at 1.5 Mha, down 3% y/y due to strong area competition from other crops, but 1% above the previous five-year average. The decline in area, combined with a lower yield potential (based on the five-year average) will cause production to decrease by 5% to 14.3 Mt. Supply is projected to fall by 4% to 18.4 Mt as a decline in production and imports is expected to be only partly offset by an increase in carry-in stocks. Total domestic use is forecast to decline, reflecting lower feed use. Exports are projected to decline y/y on expected ample global corn output. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.9 Mt, unchanged y/y but significantly below average.

The Chatham corn price for 2024-25 is projected at $230/t, up $15/t y/y, primarily based on the assumption of stronger CBOT corn futures values for new crop corn.

For 2024-25 US corn, the USDA’s ten-year baseline projections point to record large supplies as a decline in production is expected to be completely compensated by an increase in beginning stocks. Total use is projected to increase only slightly. Ending stocks are predicted to be an all-time high.

**Corn^{Corn note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Corn note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,466	1,548	1,502
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,444	1,519	1,470
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	10.00	9.93	9.73
Production (thousand tonnes)	14,539	15,076	14,310
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Corn note b}	2,227	2,500	2,150
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	19,512	19,203	18,360
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note c}	2,848	1,850	1,650
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note d}	5,327	5,400	5,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	9,693	10,038	9,394
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note e}	15,036	15,453	14,810
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,628	1,900	1,900
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Corn note g}	300	215	230
Table 8 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 8 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 8 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 8 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 8 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 8 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 8 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2023-24, Canadian oat supply is estimated at 3.94 Mt, down sharply from last year and the previous five-year average, largely due to a significant decline in production more than offsetting plentiful carry-in stocks. Domestic use, the majority of which is for animal feed, is projected at 1.09 Mt, declining significantly y/y due to sharply decreased supply. Total exports are projected at 2.45 Mt, vs 2.67 Mt last year and 2.61 Mt for the five-year average. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.40 Mt, down sharply y/y and significantly below the average.

Canadian oat stocks at December 31, 2023, stood at 2.1 Mt, well below the 3.6 Mt of a year ago and the average of 2.7 Mt. This was primarily caused by significantly decreased supply for the crop year, despite the decline in demand during the August – December period.

Domestic use in the August – December period was pegged at 669 Kt, down 25% y/y and 7% from the average. This mainly reflects the trend of domestic feed use.

In the same period, Canada exported 741 Kt of oats, up from 661 Kt a year ago but down from the five-year average of 857 Kt. Exports in August were strong but continued to decline in the following months, probably reflecting tight supplies. The main destinations include the US (accounting for 79% of the exports), Mexico (9%), and Chile (7%), with the majority of the remainder going to Japan, Peru, and South Korea. Product exports (grain equivalent) in the same period reached 366 Kt, vs 425 Kt a year ago and the average of 369 Kt, also the lowest in four years. The major destinations for oat products have been the US (accounting for 92% of total product exports), Mexico (6%), Japan, and South Korea.

The CBOT oat nearby futures has shown an overall decline since the start of 2023-24. It was about CAN$345/t in the first week of February vs over CAN355/t a year ago. The to-date average was below CAN$375/t vs less than CAN$360/t last year. The discount of Canadian Prairie cash oats to nearby oat futures are narrowing. The average oat cash price on the Prairies in the first week of February was about $305/t, vs $275/t a year ago. The to-date average was about $310/t vs less than $285/t last year. For 2023-24, the average CBOT oat futures price is projected at CAN$360/t, up from CAN$346/t in 2022-23 due to tight Canadian oat supplies, despite lower row crop prices predicted for 2023-24.

For 2024-25, Canadian oat acreage is projected at 1.30 Mha, up 27% y/y, mainly due to expected tight carry-in stocks and attractive returns compared to other field crops, but 9% below the previous five-year average. Production is forecast to increase by 41% y/y to 3.71 Mt, supported by increased area and an expected return to normal yield potential. The increase in production is expected to more than offset the sharp decline in carry-in stocks, causing supply to increase by 5% to 4.13 Mt. The larger supply is anticipated to support exports and build up carry-out stocks, which are projected at 0.55 Mt, up 38% y/y but 11% below average.

The CBOT oat futures value is projected at CAN$325/t, down CAN $45/t y/y and the lowest in four years.

For US oats, the USDA ten-year baseline projections point to a slight increase in supply for 2024-25, as a result of an expected decline in production, which is offset by an increase in beginning stocks and imports.

**Oats^{Oats note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Oats note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,593	1,023	1,300
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,402	823	1,075
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.73	3.20	3.45
Production (thousand tonnes)	5,227	2,636	3,705
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note b}	25	25	20
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	5,584	3,936	4,125
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note c}	2,670	2,450	2,550
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note d}	90	90	90
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,462	888	834
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note e}	1,639	1,086	1,025
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,275	400	550
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Oats note g}	346	360	325
Table 9 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 9 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 9 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 9 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 9 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 9 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 9 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US N^o.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2023-24, Canadian all rye supply is pegged at 464 Kt, down 23% y/y due to a sharp decline in production more than offsetting large carry-in stocks. Nevertheless, this is only slightly below the five-year average. Domestic feed consumption is projected at 140 Kt, falling sharply y/y following smaller supply. Exports are expected to stay stable at slightly below 200 Kt. Carry-out stocks are projected at 70 Kt, down sharply y/y but in-line with the five-year average.

Canadian rye stocks at December 31, 2023, were estimated by STC at 234 Kt, down 35% y/y and 7% below the average. This was primarily caused by a significant decrease in supply for the crop year, despite a decline in demand for the August – December period.

Domestic use in the August – December period was pegged at 101 Kt, down 31% y/y and 15% from the five-year average. This mainly reflects the trend of domestic feed use.

Canadian rye exports in the same period were estimated at 129 Kt, a considerable y/y increase and well above the average. The main destination is the US, which accounts for almost all Canadian rye exports.

The 2023-24 average rye price on the Canadian Prairies is projected at $220/t, down y/y due to lower row crop prices predicted for the year.

For 2024-25, Canadian rye acreage is projected at 175 thousand hectares, down slightly y/y but significantly lower than the five-year average. Production is projected to decrease by 5% y/y to 340 Kt, assuming average abandonment rates and yield potentials. The declines in carry-in stocks and production will push supply to drop by 11% y/y to 412 Kt. The smaller supply is anticipated to result in lower domestic feed use and exports, and reduce carry-out stocks y/y to 65 Mt.

The 2024-25 average rye price on the Canadian Prairies is projected at $210/t, down $10/t from 2023-24 based on lower row crop prices predicted for the year.

**Rye^{Rye note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Rye note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	237	178	175
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	152	116	106
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.42	3.09	3.21
Production (thousand tonnes)	520	358	340
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note b}	2	2	2
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	606	464	412
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note c}	199	198	183
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note d}	42	39	39
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	244	142	108
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note e}	303	196	164
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	105	70	65
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Rye note g}	287	220	210
Table 10 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 10 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 10 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 10 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 10 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 10 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 10 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

**Mixed Grains^{Mixed grains note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Mixed grains note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	138	145	149
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	72	60	70
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.82	2.53	2.45
Production (thousand tonnes)	203	153	171
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	203	153	171
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note c}	0	0	0
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note d}	0	0	0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	203	153	171
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note e}	203	153	171
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	0	0	0
Table 11 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 11 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 11 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 11 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 11 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 11 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Coarse Grains^{Total coarse grains note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Total coarse grains note f}
Area Seeded	6,286	5,855	5,946
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	5,705	5,217	5,291
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	5.34	5.20	5.26
Production (thousand tonnes)	30,475	27,118	27,805
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note b}	2,280	2,607	2,202
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	36,460	33,440	33,377
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note c}	9,606	7,278	7,133
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note d}	5,565	5,848	5,848
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	17,200	16,564	16,453
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note e}	23,138	22,793	22,679
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,716	3,370	3,565
Table 12 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 12 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 12 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 12 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 12 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 12 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2023-24, production is estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) at 18.3 million tonnes (Mt), down slightly from the 18.7 Mt grown in 2022-23. By province, Saskatchewan produced 9.7 Mt of canola, Alberta (5.4 Mt), and Manitoba (3.1 Mt), with 0.1 Mt grown elsewhere in Canada. The oil content of the Western Canadian canola crop is averaging 43.6% based on the Canadian Grain Commission’s Harvest Sample survey. By province, the oil content of Alberta and British Columbia grown canola has a mean of 44.2% while Saskatchewan and Manitoba are averaging 43.3% and 42.1%, respectively.

Supplies for the crop year are estimated at 20.1 Mt, down marginally from 20.2 Mt for 2022-23 and the five-year average of 21.5 Mt, as a slight increase in both carry-in stocks and imports moderates the decline in production. Imports are estimated at a 20-year high of 0.25 Mt.

Total domestic use of canola is estimated up by 3% on an expected record canola crush of 10.5 Mt as the sector expands to serve US demand for renewable energy. Compared to previous years, loss in handling and seed use are forecast steady at minor volumes, while feed, waste, and dockage declines.

Exports for 2023-24 are scaled back from previous crop years to 7.0 Mt in response to the growing domestic crush and competition from large world supplies of soybeans and palm oil. Exports are concentrated in a few key markets with the strength and stability of Chinese, Japanese, and United Arab Emirate demand for canola and co-products a key factor to monitor.

Carry-out stocks are estimated at 2.0 Mt, up sharply from last year and but below the five-year average, which is expected to support a strong early season crush pace for the 2024-25 crop year. The simple average price, No. 1, track Vancouver, is estimated at $695/tonne (/t) (versus $857/t in 2022-23 and the five-year average of $729/t), under pressure from declining world soybean oil prices.

For 2024-25, the area seeded to canola is forecast to drop slightly to 8.8 million hectares (Mha) due to declining prices, steady input costs, low late-fall soil moisture, and competitive wheat prices. Normal yields are assumed, supporting the forecast for a slightly higher canola output of 18.4 Mt. Supplies are forecast to rise marginally to 20.5 Mt on the higher output larger carry-in and stable imports.

Total demand is forecast to remain stable with domestic crush predicted at a conservative 10.5 Mt. This forecast may be revised significantly higher depending on the speed at which plants under construction become operational. Exports are projected to rise to 7.7 Mt with the projection highly sensitive to the size of the domestic canola crop, the strength of domestic crush demand, and competition from world supplies of oilseeds and vegetable oils. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall slightly to 1.95 Mt vs 2.0 Mt for 2023-24 and the five-year average of 2.50 Mt. The simple average price, No.1 track Vancouver is forecast lower at $645/t for the upcoming crop year.

Factors to watch are; (i) volatility of world vegetable oil prices, (ii) South American harvest conditions (iii) pace of domestic crush and exports (iv) strength of Chinese, Japanese, and United Arab Emirate import demand and (v) US planting intentions.

**Canola^{Canola note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Canola note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	8,659	8,936	8,800
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	8,596	8,855	8,688
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.17	2.07	2.11
Production (thousand tonnes)	18,695	18,328	18,365
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note b}	151	250	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	20,174	20,084	20,465
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note c}	7,950	7,000	7,700
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note d}	9,961	10,500	10,500
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	692	533	264
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note e}	10,718	11,084	10,815
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,506	2,000	1,950
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Canola note g}	857	695	645
Table 13 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to canola note a referrer Table 13 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to canola table note b referrer Table 13 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to canola table note c referrer Table 13 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to canola table note d referrer Table 13 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to canola table note e referrer Table 13 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to canola table note f referrer Table 13 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Vancouver) Return to canola table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2023-24, production is estimated at 273 thousand tonnes (Kt), down 42% from 473 Kt in 2022-23 and the lowest since 1967-68 due to lower seeded area and reduced yields. Farmers seeded a modern-day, record-low of 0.25 Mha with a harvested area of 0.24 Mha. Yields were 1.14 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) versus 1.52 t/ha for 2022-23 and the five-year average of 1.36 t/ha.

Total supplies are estimated at 502 Kt (versus 567 Kt for 2022-23 and the 568 Kt average over the previous five years), as lower output was moderated by sharply higher carry-in stocks. Total domestic use is forecast to decline marginally on lower feed, waste, and dockage, and stable other usage. Exports are forecast to increase to 0.25 Mt on stronger world demand and lower prices.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 120 Kt for a stocks-to-usage ratio of 31%. The simple average price for flaxseed No.1, in-store, Saskatoon cash is forecast at $550/t versus $635/t for 2022-23 and the five-year average of $710/t.

For 2024-25, the area seeded to flaxseed is forecast to fall to 0.20 Mha with a harvested area of slightly under 0.20 Mha. Production is projected at 250 Kt as the drop in seeded area is partly offset by higher yields. Supplies are forecast to fall to 380 Kt on a combination of lower carry-in and lower production.

Total domestic use is forecast to decline to 95 Kt while exports are estimated unchanged at 250 Kt. Carry-out stocks are projected to fall to 35 Kt for a stock-to-use ratio of 10%. The simple average price for flaxseed No.1 in-store Saskatoon cash is forecast at $550/t, steady with 2023-24 but below the five-year average of $710/t.

**Flaxseed (excluding solin) ^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	315	247	200
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	312	239	196
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.52	1.14	1.28
Production (thousand tonnes)	473	273	250
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note b}	12	10	10
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	567	502	380
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note c}	214	250	250
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note d}	N/A	N/A	N/A
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	122	113	76
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed note e}	133	132	95
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	220	120	35
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note g}	635	550	550
Table 14 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note a referrer Table 14 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note b referrer Table 14 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note c referrer Table 14 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note d referrer Table 14 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note e referrer Table 14 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note f referrer Table 14 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to canola table note g referrer N/A: not available Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Soybeans

For 2023-24, soybean production is estimated at 7.0 Mt, up 0.4 Mt from last year and the five-year average output of 6.5 Mt. Planted and harvested areas were 2.28 Mha and 2.26 Mha, respectively, while yields were 3.09 t/ha. Total supplies are estimated up 7% from last year to 7.8 Mt and 2% above the five-year average of 7.62 Mt as larger carry-in and stable imports supported the rise in output.

Total domestic use is forecast to fall slightly on a decrease in crush to 1.75 Mt and a drop in feed, waste, and dockage to about 0.53 Mt. Exports are up 16% from 2022-23 to 4.90 Mt and are 10% above the five-year average. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.42 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 6%.

The Canadian simple average price for soybeans, track Chatham, is forecast to fall by $116/t from last year to $585/t, versus the five-year average of $562/t.

For 2023-24, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its projections for world oilseed production by 0.78 Mt from last month. Increased yields across a number of oilseed-producing countries were more than offset by an expected 1.0 Mt decline in Brazilian soybean output. US soybean production was unchanged in the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Domestic crush was steady from last month at 65.97 Mt while the export estimate was lowered by 0.96 Mt to 46.8 Mt. Ending stocks were bumped up by slightly under 1.0 Mt, to 8.57 Mt while the farm-gate price for soybeans was lowered to US$465/t, a drop of US$3.67/t from last month. Soy-oil and soymeal prices are estimated at US$1,124/t and US$418/t, respectively.

For 2024-25, soybean area is forecast to remain stable at 2.28 Mha as support from steady crusher and export buying, lower corn prices and good soil moisture offsets lower prices. Assuming average yields, production is projected to decline marginally to 6.95 Mt while supplies rise slightly to 7.82 Mt, the third highest on record, on slightly higher carry-in.

Total domestic use is forecast to fall marginally on a projected drop in feed, waste, and dockage to 0.35 Mt. Domestic crush is optimistically projected at 1.9 Mt on steady demand for food and fuel. Exports are forecast to rise slightly to 4.95 Mt, the second highest on record compared to the 5.64 Mt shipped out of the country in 2018-19. Carry-out is forecast unchanged at 0.42 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 6%. The Canadian simple average price for soybeans, track Chatham, is forecast to fall by $45/t from last year to $540/t, versus the five-year average of $562/t.

**Soybeans^{Soybeans note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Soybeans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,135	2,279	2,280
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,118	2,261	2,272
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.09	3.09	3.06
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,543	6,981	6,950
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note b}	483	450	450
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,313	7,802	7,821
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note c}	4,216	4,900	4,950
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note d}	1,768	1,750	1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	722	532	350
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note e}	2,726	2,482	2,450
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	372	421	421
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Soybeans note g}	701	585	540
Table 15 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 15 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 15 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 15 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 15 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 15 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Table 15 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham) Return to soybeans table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Oilseeds^{Total Oilseeds note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Total Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	11,108	11,461	11,280
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	11,026	11,354	11,156
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.33	2.25	2.29
Production (thousand tonnes)	25,711	25,581	25,565
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note b}	646	710	560
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	28,054	28,388	28,666
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note c}	12,380	12,150	12,900
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note d}	11,729	12,250	12,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,536	1,178	690
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note e}	13,577	13,698	13,360
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	2,097	2,541	2,406
Table 16 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 16 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 16 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 16 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 16 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 16 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2023-24, exports are expected to fall to 2.3 million tonnes (Mt) largely due to lower demand from Bangladesh. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to 310 thousand tonnes (Kt) from the previous year, in-line with the fall in supply. The average price is expected to be higher than 2022-2023 levels due to record prices for green dry pea types.

During January, the on-farm price of yellow peas rose marginally while green pea prices in Saskatchewan fell by $25/tonne (/t). This occurred despite solid export demand and indications that the seeded area for the winter pulse crop in India is expected to be lower than the previous year. Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a $200/t premium over yellow dry peas, compared to the $65/t premium that green peas had over yellow peas in 2022-23.

US dry pea production is estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) at 0.82 Mt, up 17% from 2022-23. This was largely due to above-average yields and higher area. Canadian dry pea exports to the US are moving below last year’s pace and are forecast at 0.26 Mt in 2023-24.

For 2024-25, seeded area is forecast to increase by 5% from 2023-24 at 1.3 million hectares (Mha) because of competitive returns for yellow and green pea types when compared to other crops. Production is forecast to rise by 19% to 3.1 Mt; however, supply is expected to rise by only 8% from 2022-23 due to the smaller carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be unchanged at 2.3 Mt with similar exportable supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase to 0.4 Mt. The average price is expected to be lower than in 2023-24, due to increased global supply.

**Dry Peas^{Dry peas note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Dry peas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,363	1,233	1,300
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,348	1,200	1,270
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.54	2.17	2.44
Production (thousand tonnes)	3,423	2,609	3,100
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note b}	35	80	30
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	3,797	3,186	3,440
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Dry peas note b}	2,563	2,300	2,300
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note c}	737	576	700
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	498	310	440
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	15%	11%	15%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry peas note d}	440	450	350
Table 17 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry peas table note a referrer Table 17 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry peas table note b referrer Table 17 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry peas table note c referrer Table 17 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry peas table note d referrer Table 17 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry peas table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2023-24, exports are forecast to decrease sharply to 1.6 Mt due to weaker import demand from Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. With lower supply and decreased exports, carry-out stocks are expected to fall. This will continue to be supportive of record lentil prices throughout 2023-24.

During January, the on-farm price of large green lentils rose $15/t while red lentils in Saskatchewan decreased by $50/t. Red lentil prices have been pressured by a large Australian export program recently. Prices for No.1 large green lentils are expected to maintain a record premium of $655/t over No.1 red lentil prices, compared to a $400/t premium in 2022-23.

For 2023-24, US lentil production (mostly green types) is estimated at 261 Kt, up 2% from 2022-23. Canada is a minor exporter to the US. Canadian lentil exports to the US are expected to be similar to 2022-2023 at 85 Kt.

For 2024-25, area seeded in Canada is forecast to rise 8% to 1.6 Mha due to higher potential returns compared to other crops. Production is forecast to increase by 32% to 2.2 Mt. Supply is expected to rise to 2.4 Mt as higher production is moderated by lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to rise to 1.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to be sharply higher than the previous year. The overall lentil price is forecast to decrease from 2023-24 due to expectations for higher world supply and carry-out stocks.

**Lentils^{Lentils note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Lentils note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,749	1,485	1,600
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,715	1,460	1,575
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.34	1.14	1.40
Production (thousand tonnes)	2,301	1,671	2,200
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	87	95	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	2,610	1,913	2,375
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	2,209	1,600	1,800
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note c}	255	213	265
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	147	100	310
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	6%	6%	15%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Lentils note d}	820	990	750
Table 18 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to lentils table note a referrer Table 18 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to lentils table note b referrer Table 18 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to lentils table note c referrer Table 18 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to lentils table note d referrer Table 18 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to lentils table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry Beans

For 2023-24, exports are forecast to be higher than 2022-23. The EU and the US remain the top two export markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease from 2022-23. The average Canadian dry bean price is expected to rise due to smaller supply in North America. To-date, Canadian white pea bean prices are 3% lower, pinto bean prices are 8% higher and black beans are 2% higher than last year.

US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is estimated by the USDA at nearly 1.09 Mt, down 7% from 2022-23. US dry bean production decreased for white pea, pinto, and both kidney bean types while it rose for black, cranberry, pink, Great Northern, and red dry bean types. This is expected to continue supporting Canadian dry bean prices throughout 2023-24, which has been partly offset by the weaker Canadian dollar vs the US dollar.

For 2024-25, the seeded area is forecast to be higher due to larger potential returns compared to other crops, particularly soybeans. Production is forecast to fall marginally to 0.33 Mt due to larger expected area but lower yields. Supply is expected to decrease, with smaller carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be lower than 2023-24 but carry-out stocks are expected to decrease. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall due to expectations for increased North American supply and a stronger exchange rate for the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.

**Dry Beans^{Dry beans note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Dry beans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	120	129	135
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	117	129	131
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.67	2.63	2.52
Production (thousand tonnes)	313	339	330
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	70	75	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	523	494	435
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	368	390	335
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note c}	75	74	75
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	80	30	25
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	18%	6%	6%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry beans note d}	1,165	1,190	1,140
Table 19 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 19 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 19 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 19 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 19 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2023-24, exports are forecast at 135 Kt with the US, the EU and Turkey as the top markets. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is forecast to rise to record levels due to strong world demand and lower world supply.

US chickpea production is estimated by the USDA at 214 Kt, 28% higher than 2022-2023, due to higher yield and area. Canadian chickpea exports to the US are forecast to be similar to last year at 55 Kt.

For 2024-25, the area seeded is forecast to increase from 2023-24, largely due to good potential returns compared to other crops. As a result, production is expected to rise sharply to 210 Kt. Supply is also expected to rise from last year despite lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be similar to the previous year and carry-out stocks are expected to increase. The average price is forecast to be lower than the previous year.

**Chickpeas ^{Chickpeas note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Chickpeas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	95	128	150
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	95	127	148
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.35	1.12	1.42
Production (thousand tonnes)	128	142	210
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	42	45	45
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	325	215	260
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	198	135	135
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note c}	99	75	75
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	28	5	50
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	9%	2%	24%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Chickpeas note d}	1,000	1,080	900
Table 20 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 20 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 20 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 20 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 20 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard Seed

For 2023-24, exports are forecast to be unchanged from last year at 110 Kt but carry-out stocks are expected to rise due to higher supply. The US and the EU currently account for 87% of Canada’s total exports to-date for mustard seed. The average price is expected to decrease from 2022-23 but remain historically high. This is due to the expected increase of carry-out stocks in Canada and the US.

For 2024-25, the area seeded is forecast to rise to 225 thousand hectares (Kha) and production is expected to be similar to the previous year at 170 Kt with a return to average yields. Supply is forecast to be 11% higher than the previous year as the decrease in production is offset by higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be unchanged but carry-out stocks are still expected to rise. The average price is expected to fall compared to 2023-24 but remain the fourth highest on record.

**Mustard Seed ^{Mustard Seed note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Mustard Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	225	258	225
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	219	251	217
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	0.74	0.68	0.78
Production (thousand tonnes)	162	171	170
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	11	8	7
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	189	218	242
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	110	110	110
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note c}	40	43	42
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	40	65	90
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	26%	42%	59%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Mustard Seed note d}	2,140	1,400	1,275
Table 21 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 21 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 21 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 21 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 21 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary Seed

For 2023-24, exports are forecast to be lower than last year. The EU and Mexico currently account for nearly 56% of the total Canadian canary seed export market. Carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten. The average price is forecast to increase to $935/t from $900/t in 2022-23.

For 2024-25, the area seeded is expected to increase marginally due to higher returns relative to other crops. Production is forecast to be sharply higher than last year due to improved yields and a rise in seeded area. Supply is expected to be 3% higher at 175 Kt. Exports are expected to increase and carry-out stocks are forecast to be unchanged. The average price is forecast to be sharply lower than the 2023-24 level.

**Canary Seed ^{Canary Seed note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Canary Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	118	104	110
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	117	103	108
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.36	1.09	1.34
Production (thousand tonnes)	159	112	145
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	213	169	175
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	147	125	135
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note c}	9	14	10
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	57	30	30
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	36%	22%	21%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Canary Seed note d}	900	935	770
Table 22 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 22 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 22 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 22 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower Seed

For 2023-24, exports are expected to be higher than the previous year but carry-out stocks are forecast to rise. The US is Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed and accounts for 95% of Canada’s total exports. The average price is expected to fall significantly from 2022-2023 on sharply lower oilseed prices due to the weakness in soybean oil prices. Confectionery prices are expected to be lower.

For the US, sunflower seed production is estimated by the USDA to have decreased by 19% to nearly 1.0 Mt. Nearly 0.9 Mt of the US sunflower seed crop is estimated to be oilseed types, lower than last year. The US confectionery type production was higher this year at 135 Kt.

The global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at 61.9 Mt, down 4% from last year. This is largely due to lower carry-in stocks in Ukraine.

As a result, world exports are expected to decrease by 28% while domestic use is forecast to fall marginally to 55.8 Mt. World carry-out stocks are expected to fall by 21% to 3.1 Mt.

For 2024-25, the area seeded is forecast to be slightly lower than 2023-24 due to expectations for lower returns relative to other crops. Production is forecast to decrease to 78 Kt. Supply is expected to be higher at 293 Kt. Exports are expected to be higher than the previous year but carry-out stocks are expected to continue to rise. The average price in Canada is forecast to be higher than in 2023-24 as the prices for oil type varieties are expected to increase.

**Sunflower Seed ^{Sunflower Seed note a}: February 16, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Sunflower Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	38	40	36
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	38	40	35
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.24	2.32	2.23
Production (thousand tonnes)	84	92	78
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	40	30	35
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	242	273	293
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	22	25	35
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note c}	70	68	68
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	151	180	190
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	165%	193%	184%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Sunflower Seed note d}	800	575	630
Table 23 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 23 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 23 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 23 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.