Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (PDF version, 402 KB)
This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri Food Canada’s (AAFC) September Outlook for the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 crop years. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. The outlook for the world’s grain markets continues to be uncertain due to a number of factors: strong demand and relatively tight supplies, the Russian invasion of Ukraine which has disrupted Black Sea production and global trade patterns, inflation and concerns in regards to a global economic slowdown.
For the 2021-22 crop year, the report provides the final estimates for all crops, incorporating information from Statistics Canada’s (STC) October 7, 2022 report on the supply and disposition of soybeans and corn. Total carry out stocks (ending year inventories) for all principal field crops ended the year at a record low level. Prices for the year were at or near record levels for most crops.
For 2022-23 crop year, the outlook incorporates yield estimates from STC’s September 14, 2022 Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates release, which were derived using remote sensing data from Statistics Canada's Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP), agroclimatic data, as well as survey data and administrative sources. Total field crop production in Canada is estimated to increase by 36.1% as compared to last year, resulting in a rebound in supply and allowing for exports to return to average to above-average levels. Harvest in Western Canada is essentially complete in Alberta and Saskatchewan while Manitoba is now near-complete after having caught up to the five-year average. In Eastern Canada, corn harvest has begun while soybean harvest is near completion.
Crop prices are forecast to remain strong for 2022-23, although decreasing for the most part from the elevated levels of 2021-22. The price forecasts are subject to significant volatility due to the elevated amount of uncertainty in global markets.
The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on November 18, 2022. STC is scheduled to publish its final principal field crop production estimates for the year on December 2, 2022 based on a survey in November of approximately 28,600 farmers across Canada.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022 | 2022-2023f | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 27,491 | 27,571 | 27,771 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 26,536 | 26,459 | 26,532 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.45 | 2.53 | 3.40 |
| Production (kt) | 91,459 | 67,058 | 90,310 |
| Imports (kt) | 2,682 | 7,292 | 2,712 |
| Total supply (kt) | 107,742 | 86,060 | 101,628 |
| Exports (kt) | 50,926 | 31,689 | 45,570 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) | 45,105 | 45,765 | 45,153 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 11,710 | 8,607 | 10,905 |
|
|||
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022f | 2022-2023f | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 4,025 | 3,821 | 3,706 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 3,973 | 3,725 | 3,610 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.16 | 1.23 | 2.00 |
| Production (kt) | 8,592 | 4,597 | 7,226 |
| Imports (kt) | 338 | 231 | 312 |
| Total supply (kt) | 9,851 | 6,460 | 8,604 |
| Exports (kt) | 6,786 | 4,333 | 5,805 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) | 1,434 | 1,061 | 1,319 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,632 | 1,066 | 1,480 |
|
|||
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022f | 2022-2023f | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 31,516 | 31,392 | 31,477 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 30,510 | 30,185 | 30,142 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.28 | 2.37 | 3.24 |
| Production (kt) | 100,051 | 71,656 | 97,536 |
| Imports (kt) | 3,019 | 7,523 | 3,024 |
| Total supply (kt) | 117,593 | 92,520 | 110,233 |
| Exports (kt) | 57,712 | 36,021 | 51,375 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) | 46,539 | 46,825 | 46,472 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 13,342 | 9,673 | 12,385 |
|
|||
Wheat
Durum
For 2021-22, according to Statistics Canada (STC), Canadian durum supply decreased 47%, year over year (y/y) to 3.86 million tonnes (Mt); exports reached 2.72 Mt and carry-out stocks were at their third lowest level since 1982-83 at 0.58 Mt.
For 2022‑23, STC estimates production to double from the 2021-22 levels. They are forecast at 6.12 Mt thanks to a 5% increase in seeded area, lower abandonment and an increase in yields. Yields are projected at 2.63 t/ha, up from 1.36 tonnes/hectare (t/ha) one year prior. Over the previous five years, durum yields were on trend to reach 2.7 t/ha. Total supply is forecast at 6.72 Mt, up 74% y/y.
The durum harvest is virtually complete with over 98% of the crop in the bin. Early signs of quality point to the bulk of the crop testing within the top two grades, with protein content averaging 14.5% which is lower than last year’s level, but slightly above the five-year average of 14.3%.
Shipments were slow to start the 2022-23 crop year due to the tight stocks; volume exported in August was 138 thousand tonnes according to STC, with Italy accounting for half of the shipments, followed by the USA (21%) and Morocco (16%). Exports are forecast to rise on account of the higher supply and strong demand from Italy and North Africa. They are pegged at 5.0 Mt, up 84% y/y and 11% more than the five-year average.
Total domestic use is forecast to increase to average levels, that is 0.8 Mt, leaving 0.9 Mt to close out stocks at the end of the year.
The average SK spot price for CWAD 1, 13% for 2022-23 was reduced to $425/tonne, pressured by larger supplies and appreciation of the US dollar.
World durum production is estimated by the International Grains Council to grow by 7% to 33.2 Mt, but with total supply increasing only 1% to 39.6, constrained by tight carry-in stocks. Use is expected to grow 3% to 33.8 Mt with a rebound in North American consumption. Trade is forecast at 8.8 Mt, up 47% y/y with strong demand from Europe and North Africa, in particular Morocco. Carry out stocks are forecast to fall 10% to 5.8 Mt, the lowest in 15 years.
In their September 30th, Small Grains Summary report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised the US durum production forecast down by 15% to 1.74 Mt. The US crop is rating in the top grade with an average protein content of 14.1%, according to the US Wheat Associates.
The 2022 23 forecasted average SK spot price for CWAD 1 13% remains pegged at $425/tonne.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 2,302 | 2,319 | 2,431 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 2,295 | 2,233 | 2,372 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.86 | 1.36 | 2.63 |
| Production (kt) | 6,571 | 3,038 | 6,117 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 13 | 8 | 25 |
| Total supply (kt) | 7,321 | 3,859 | 6,721 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 5,766 | 2,716 | 5,000 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 198 | 208 | 200 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 321 | 124 | 408 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 742 | 565 | 821 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 813 | 579 | 900 |
| Average Price ($/t) [g] | 302 | 631 | 425 |
|
|||
Wheat (excluding durum)
For 2021‑22, according to STC, Canadian wheat supply decreased 27% y/y to 24.55 Mt; exports dropped 40% y/y to 12.41 Mt, and carry out stocks reported at just over 3.09 Mt.
For 2022-23, STC estimates production of wheat (excluding durum) to rebound to 28.59 Mt, up 48% compared to 2021-22 and 12% above the last five-year average, as higher seeded area and lower abandonment are compounded by higher yields. Yields for all wheat are projected at 3.65 t/ha, up 32% y/y and in line with long-term trends. Total supply is up 29%, constrained by tight carry-in stocks and is forecast at 31.78 Mt.
Early signs point to the bulk of the crop to finish within the top two grades with a protein content of 14.1%, lower than last year’s levels, but still above the five-year average of 13.5%.
Canadian exports of wheat in August were 1.1 Mt according to STC; top destinations include China (18%), USA (13%), Japan (12%) and Bangladesh (11%). Due in part to larger supply, and decreased supply from competitors, exports were revised up by 1 Mt this month to 18.3 Mt, up 47% y/y and 3% more than the last five-year average. Domestic use is forecast to return to average levels at 8.2 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise to 5.3 Mt.
The USDA lowered their global wheat supply forecast this month on account of a lower production in the USA and Argentina. Although it is still a record at 781.7 Mt, total supply is pegged at 1,057.7 Mt, down 2% y/y, constrained by tight carry-in stocks. Trade was also trimmed on account of the lower supply, but still remains 3% higher than last year’s volume at 208.33 Mt. Use was cut to 790.17 Mt, down 0.5% year on year; stocks are forecast to close in at 267.54, down 1 Mt from last month’s forecast and down 3% y/y.
In their Small Grains Summary report, the USDA cut their all wheat (including durum) production estimate by 3.72 Mt to 44.9 Mt. Use and trade were also cut as a result of the lower output. US wheat exports for 2022-23 are forecast at 21.09 Mt and domestic use at 29.61 Mt, both down about 3% versus 2021-22. Closing stocks are forecast to drop another 14% y/y to 15.68 Mt, the lowest since 2007-08.
Price volatility in wheat markets continues to be underpinned by geopolitical tension in the Black Sea region, concerns of economic recession, and La Nina weather patterns in South America. The 2022 23 forecasted average SK spot price for CWRS 1 13.5% is raised to $405/t.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 7,892 | 7,133 | 7,915 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 7,723 | 6,960 | 7,687 |
| Yield | 3.74 | 2.77 | 3.65 |
| Production (kt) | 28,866 | 19,258 | 28,585 |
| Imports (b) | 129 | 153 | 100 |
| Total supply (kt) | 33,757 | 24,552 | 31,780 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 20,566 | 12,412 | 18,300 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 3,265 | 3,258 | 3,200 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 4,041 | 4,975 | 4,205 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 8,050 | 9,045 | 8,180 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 5,141 | 3,095 | 5,300 |
| Average Price ($/t) [g] | 271 | 447 | 405 |
|
|||
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 10,194 | 9,453 | 10,345 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 10,018 | 9,193 | 10,059 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.54 | 2.43 | 3.45 |
| Production (kt) | 35,437 | 22,296 | 34,703 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 142 | 161 | 125 |
| Total supply (kt) | 41,078 | 28,411 | 38,501 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 26,332 | 15,128 | 23,300 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 3,463 | 3,466 | 3,400 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 4,362 | 5,099 | 4,612 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 8,793 | 9,610 | 9,001 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 5,954 | 3,673 | 6,200 |
|
|||
Coarse grains
Barley
For 2021-22, the Canadian barley supply and demand situation includes sharply lower carry-in stocks, production and supply, as well as significantly reduced domestic feed consumption and exports, when compared to last year. Carry-out stocks hit a new record low. The Lethbridge feed barley average price for the crop year hit a new record high.
For 2022-23, Canadian barley production was estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) at 9.43 million tonnes (Mt), 35% and 6%, respectively, higher than last year’s record low and the pre-2021 five-year average. Provincial yields were averaged at 3.85 tonnes/hectare (t/ha), 3.45 t/ha and 4.23 t/ha, respectively, for Alberta (AB), Saskatchewan (SK) and Manitoba (MB). In comparison, the AB provincial crop report released on October 4th had barley yield at 4.02 t/ha for the province. The SK crop report released on October 3rd had barley yield at 3.34 t/ha for the province. The MB crop report released on September 27th had barley yields ranging between 2.69-5.38 t/ha (middle point at 4.04 t/ha), varying widely by seeding date and rainfall. Based on STC’s estimates, the increase in production is expected to offset the historically low carry-in stocks and smaller imports, which will result in the 2022-23 supply increasing by 27% year on year to nearly 10 Mt, but 6% below the pre-2021 five-year average.
The expanded supply will support domestic use (including industrial and feed use) and exports in 2022-23. Carry-out stocks are projected to rise from 2021-22 to 0.55 Mt, which is still a tight level.
According to STC, barley exports in August 2022, the first month of the 2022-23 crop year, were pegged at 93 thousand tonnes (Kt), versus 11 Kt in August 2021 and 97 Kt for the previous five-year average in the same month. Of the total exports, about 57% were shipped to China and 43% to the US. Barley malt exports in August 2022 neared 42 Kt, which is lower than the 53 Kt exported in August 2021 and the 49 Kt for the previous five-year average. Of the total exports, about 55% were shipped to the US, 25% to Japan and 14% to Mexico.
The average price is predicted to decline from the record levels of 2021-22 to $400/t due to expectations for a recovery in domestic feed grain supply from last year’s drought. However, it will remain historically high, largely underpinned by strong corn prices and robust demand.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Small Grains 2022 Summary report confirmed a large 2022 barley output in the US. At 174 million bushels (Mbu), it is larger than the last estimate of 158 Mbu and up 45% from the previous year. Yield recovered to 71.7 bushels/acre (bu/ac), up 11.4 bu/ac from 2021. Total seeded area was 2.95 million acres, up 9% from 2021. Harvested area was 2.43 million acres, up 22% on the year.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 3,060 | 3,357 | 2,851 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 2,809 | 3,002 | 2,562 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.82 | 2.32 | 3.68 |
| Production (kt) | 10,741 | 6,959 | 9,428 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 294 | 228 | 60 |
| Total supply (kt) | 11,991 | 7,897 | 9,992 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 4,277 | 2,603 | 3,450 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 299 | 284 | 318 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 6,416 | 4,262 | 5,394 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 7,003 | 4,790 | 5,992 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 711 | 504 | 550 |
| Average Price ($/t) [g] | 294 | 432 | 400 |
|
|||
Corn
For 2021-22, the Canadian corn supply and demand situation includes larger production, imports and supply, greater industrial use, feed consumption and exports, relative to last year. At 2.75 Mt, carry-out stocks hit a record high, increasing by 27% from a year ago and 18% from the previous five-year average. The Chatham corn average price for the crop year increased from the old record seen in 2020-21 and hit a new record high.
For 2022-23, Canadian corn production was estimated by STC at 14.86 Mt, a record level, 6% and 8%, respectively, higher than last year and the five-year average, thanks to historically high production expected in Ontario. However, the larger production will be partly offset by sharply lower imports, resulting in supply decreasing by 12% from the record high seen in 2021-22 to 19.6 Mt, but still the second highest on record.
Domestic use is predicted to decrease from 2021-22 on lower feed use. Exports are projected to be on par with last year’s level, but increase significantly from the previous five-year average. Carry-out stocks are projected at 2.40 Mt, decreasing by 13% from last year’s record high but slightly higher than the previous five-year average.
The average price is predicted at $330/t, up from the old record reached in 2021-22, supported by the outlook for strong demand and high new crop corn prices in the US.
The USDA’s October update of supply and demand reduced 2022-23 forecasts for US corn production, beginning- and ending-season inventories. So far, the 2022-23 US corn supply will be 6% lower than 2021-22 and at a nine-year low. Ending stocks will drop by 15% on the year and be the lowest in a decade, which will be supportive of corn prices. The US farm average price is projected by the USDA at US$6.80/bu, up US$0.05/bu from last month’s projection and up sharply from $6.00/bu for 2021-22, while only slightly below the record high of $6.89 reached in 2012-13.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 1,440 | 1,413 | 1,475 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 1,408 | 1,391 | 1,441 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 9.63 | 10.06 | 10.32 |
| Production (kt) | 13,563 | 13,984 | 14,861 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 1,639 | 6,201 | 2,000 |
| Total supply (kt) | 17,762 | 22,354 | 19,607 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 1,438 | 1,737 | 1,750 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 5,376 | 5,797 | 5,500 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 8,764 | 12,058 | 9,941 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 14,155 | 17,871 | 15,457 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 2,169 | 2,746 | 2,400 |
| Average Price ($/t) [g] | 272 | 312 | 330 |
|
|||
Oats
For 2021-22, the Canadian oat supply and demand situation includes considerably higher carry-in stocks, sharply lower production and supply, as well as significantly reduced domestic feed consumption and exports, when compared to last year. Carry-out stocks were the tightest on record. Prices in Canada hit new record highs.
For 2022-23, Canadian oat production was estimated by STC at 4.65 Mt, 66% and 21%, respectively, higher than last year’s record low and the pre-2021 five-year average. Provincial yields were averaged at 3.01 t/ha, 3.66 t/ha and 4.34 t/ha respectively for AB, SK and MB. In comparison, the provincial crop reports had oat yields at 3.63 t/ha, 3.39 t/ha and 4.76 t/ha, respectively, for AB, SK and MB. Based on STC’s estimates, the increase in production is expected to offset the historically low carry-in stocks, leading to 2022-23 supply to grow by 43% from 2021-22 to almost 5.0 Mt, a comfortable level.
In responding to larger supply, domestic use, specifically feed use, and exports are predicted to increase. Carry-out stocks are projected to rise sharply from 2021-22 to 0.7 Mt, 18% over the pre-2021 five-year average.
Oat exports in August 2022 were close to a record low for the month, at only 69 Kt, versus 168 Kt in August 2021 and 142 Kt for the previous five-year average. On the contrary, oat product exports in August 2022 neared 54 Kt, which is the second highest level on record for August exports and only slightly lower than a year ago. Over 99% of Canadian oat grain exports and about 93% of oat product exports were destined for the US.
The average price is predicted to fall sharply from the record levels in 2021-22 to $385/t, due to an expected supply rebound in North America, but remain historically high, supported by strong prices in neighbouring markets.
The USDA pegged 2022 US oat output at 58 Mbu, up from 53 Mbu in its last estimate and an increase of 45% from 2021. Yield was estimated at 64.8 bu/ac, up 3.5 bu/ac from 2021. Harvested area was estimated at 890 thousand hectares, 37% above last year.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 1,554 | 1,385 | 1,608 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 1,314 | 1,176 | 1,301 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.48 | 2.39 | 3.58 |
| Production (kt) | 4,576 | 2,808 | 4,654 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 17 | 25 | 15 |
| Total supply (kt) | 5,019 | 3,490 | 4,987 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 2,972 | 2,302 | 2,850 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 104 | 99 | 120 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 1,170 | 637 | 1,191 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 1,390 | 870 | 1,437 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 657 | 318 | 700 |
| Average Price ($/t) [g] | 301 | 565 | 385 |
|
|||
Rye
For 2021-22, the Canadian rye supply and demand situation includes increased supply, record high feed use and slightly decreased exports, compared to last year. Carry-out stocks were higher than the previous year and the five-year average. Rye price was estimated to hit an all-time high.
For 2022-23, Canadian rye production was estimated by STC to edge down from 2021-22 to 470 Kt. This is still a large production estimate. Supply is projected at 581 Kt, 3% and 24% higher than in 2021-22 and the previous five-year average, respectively.
Total demand for rye in 2022-23 is projected to decline due to lower feed use, given expected ample feed grain supplies in Western Canada, and lower exports. Carry-out stocks are projected to increase significantly from 2021-22 and the five-year average, due to larger supply and decreased demand.
Rye exports in August 2022 were pegged at 33 Kt, versus 34 Kt in August 2021 and 32 Kt for the previous five-year average. Approximately 99% of Canadian rye exports were destined for the US.
The 2022-23 average price is projected at $260/t, 19% lower than the 2021-22 price forecast, due to expectations for larger 2022-23 feed grain supplies on the Canadian Prairies, smaller demand, and lower price forecasts for other feed grains. However, it remains historically high, supported by strong prices in neighbouring markets.
Rye production in the US was estimated at 12.3 Mbu, up from 11.7 Mbu from their last estimate and increasing by 25% on the year, which is a six-year high. Yield was at a record high and harvested area was at a six-year high.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 237 | 246 | 237 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 153 | 147 | 143 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.19 | 3.22 | 3.28 |
| Production (kt) | 488 | 473 | 470 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Total supply (kt) | 530 | 565 | 581 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 153 | 151 | 145 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 41 | 26 | 39 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 224 | 258 | 212 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 287 | 304 | 271 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 91 | 109 | 165 |
| Average Price ($/t) [g] | 225 | 320 | 260 |
|
|||
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 168 | 133 | 138 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 97 | 65 | 47 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.41 | 2.53 | 2.63 |
| Production (kt) | 233 | 164 | 124 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total supply (kt) | 233 | 164 | 124 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 233 | 164 | 124 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 233 | 164 | 124 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
|||
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area Seeded | 6,459 | 6,534 | 6,309 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 5,781 | 5,780 | 5,494 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 5.12 | 4.22 | 5.38 |
| Production (kt) | 29,601 | 24,387 | 29,538 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 1,952 | 6,455 | 2,077 |
| Total supply (kt) | 35,535 | 34,469 | 35,290 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 8,840 | 6,793 | 8,195 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 5,819 | 6,206 | 5,977 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 16,808 | 17,378 | 16,862 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 23,068 | 24,000 | 23,280 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 3,627 | 3,676 | 3,815 |
|
|||
Oilseeds
Canola
For 2021-22, Canada exported 5.3 million tonnes (Mt) of canola, down sharply from the previous crop year due to the western Canadian drought, while domestic crush was 8.6 Mt. Carry-out was 0.87 Mt, versus the 5-year average of 2.7 Mt, on tight domestic supplies and strong world demand. The simple average price for canola is $1,075/t versus $730/t last year and the 5-year average of $556/t.
For 2022-23, canola seeded area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares (Mha), down 4% from last year, with a predicted harvested area of 8.6 Mha. Yields are estimated at 2.23 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) compared to last year’s drought reduced 1.54 t/ha. Production is projected at 19.1 Mt based on satellite image, model-based estimates. By province, Saskatchewan is forecast to grow 9.7 Mt of canola, Alberta 6.1 Mt and Manitoba 3.1 Mt. The harvesting pace is behind normal but has been helped by an open fall of warm and dry weather. Total supply is forecast to rise sharply from last year to 20.1 Mt, as the increase in production is constrained by tight carry-in.
Usage of Canadian canola is forecast to recover; expected exports are up by about 77% to 9.3 Mt while domestic crush rises to 10.0 Mt versus 8.6 Mt last year. Carry-out stocks are down to 0.50 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 3%. Canola prices are forecast to decline to $880/t track Vancouver. If realized, this would be the second highest canola price on record.
The 2022-23 outlook remains sensitive to several factors: (i) harvest conditions across Western Canada, the US and the world, (ii) strength of world vegetable oil and protein meal demand, (iii) supply chain shocks, (iv) macroeconomic shocks such as inflation, rising interest rates and fluctuating crude oil prices, (v) rate of growth of the biodiesel sector and (vi) fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 8,410 | 9,016 | 8,667 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 8,325 | 8,949 | 8,580 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.34 | 1.54 | 2.23 |
| Production (kt) | 19,485 | 13,757 | 19,099 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 125 | 105 | 100 |
| Total supply (kt) | 23,044 | 15,638 | 20,074 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 10,589 | 5,268 | 9,300 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 10,425 | 8,555 | 10,000 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 190 | 878 | 223 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 10,680 | 9,496 | 10,274 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,776 | 875 | 500 |
| Average Price ($/t) [g] | 730 | 1,075 | 880 |
|
|||
Flaxseed
For 2021-22, exports were 0.22 Mt, versus 0.50 Mt the previous year, as a result of constrained domestic supplies. Total domestic use is estimated at 113,000 tonnes (t), while carry-out stocks rose to 84,900 t. Flaxseed prices rallied sharply to $1,206/t, versus $693/t in 2020-21 and the 5-year average of $526/t.
For 2022-23, flaxseed area is estimated at 0.32 Mha, versus the 5-year average of 0.39 Mha, with harvested area projected at 0.30 Mha. Yields are projected at 1.5 t/ha based on an estimated production of 0.47 Mt – 70% of which occurs in Saskatchewan. Total supply is forecast to increase by 34% to 0.56 Mt, on higher output and carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to increase to 0.38 Mt on steady Chinese, European and United States consumption. Total domestic use falls by about 16% to 0.10 Mt, on lower feed, waste and dockage, while carry-out stocks rises to 90,000 t. Flaxseed prices are forecast to decline but remain historically strong at $690/t for 2022-23.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 377 | 416 | 315 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 371 | 404 | 303 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.56 | 0.86 | 1.53 |
| Production (kt) | 578 | 346 | 465 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 26 | 12 | 10 |
| Total supply (kt) | 667 | 417 | 560 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 505 | 219 | 375 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 85 | 99 | 76 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 103 | 113 | 95 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 59 | 85 | 90 |
| Average Price ($/t) [g] | 693 | 1,206 | 690 |
|
|||
Soybeans
For 2021-22, Canadian exports of soybeans were down to 4.3 Mt on tight domestic supplies. Domestic processing of soybeans increased by 14% from last year to a historically normal 1.8 Mt on strong crush margins and robust demand for protein meal. Soybean prices were $678/t versus the simple average of $605/t in 2020-21.
For 2022-23, farmers planted 2.13 Mha to soybeans in Canada, versus 2.15 Mha last year, with harvested area estimated at 2.10 Mha. Production is 6.5 Mt, versus 6.3 Mt in 2021-22, based on Statistics Canada’s satellite-image, model-based estimates. Total supply is forecast to increase to 7.2 Mt, on higher production and carry-in combined with stable imports.
Exports are forecast to increase by 3% to 4.4 Mt, with shipments headed to a diverse group of countries. Domestic processing is forecast up slightly to 1.9 Mt compared to last year. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase marginally from last year at 0.30 Mt, versus the 5-year average of 0.51 Mt.
Soybean prices are forecast to rise to $695/t, on support from higher US prices and a weaker Canadian dollar offsetting pressure from a large US soybean crop. A stable Canada-US dollar exchange rate is assumed for the duration of 2022-23.
For 2022-23, world oilseed production is forecast at 647 Mt by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), a rise of 42 Mt from last year. US soybean production is projected at 4.31 billion bushels (Bbu), down 3% from last year, creating a slight drop in American soybean supplies. US soybean exports are forecast at 2.05 Bbu while domestic crush increases to 2.24 Bbu. Ending stocks are predicted to fall to 0.20 Bbu, versus 0.27 Bbu for 2021-22 and the five-year average of 0.48 Bbu. The USDA projects the farm gate price of soybeans to fall by 35 cents/bu from last month to US$14.00/bu, versus US$13.30/bu for 2021-22.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 2,052 | 2,154 | 2,135 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 2,041 | 2,134 | 2,097 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.12 | 2.94 | 3.10 |
| Production (kt) | 6,359 | 6,272 | 6,505 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 438 | 560 | 400 |
| Total supply (kt) | 7,417 | 7,125 | 7,203 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 4,661 | 4,281 | 4,400 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 1,636 | 1,858 | 1,900 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 603 | 468 | 403 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 2,462 | 2,547 | 2,503 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 294 | 298 | 300 |
| Average Price ($/t) [g] | 605 | 678 | 695 |
|
|||
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 10,839 | 11,585 | 11,116 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 10,738 | 11,486 | 10,980 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.46 | 1.77 | 2.37 |
| Production (kt) | 26,421 | 20,375 | 26,070 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 588 | 676 | 510 |
| Total supply (kt) | 31,129 | 23,180 | 27,837 |
| Exports (kt) [c] | 15,755 | 9,768 | 14,075 |
| Food and Industrial Use (kt) [d] | 12,061 | 10,413 | 11,900 |
| Feed, Waste & Dockage (kt) | 878 | 1,444 | 702 |
| Total Domestic Use (kt) [e] | 13,245 | 12,155 | 12,872 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 2,129 | 1,257 | 890 |
|
|||
Pulses and special crops
Dry peas
For 2021‑22, exports were lower than the 2020 21 level at 1.91 million tonnes (Mt) despite record shipments to the US, which was offset by lower exports to China and Bangladesh. Domestic use was lower compared to the previous year. However, the smaller supply led to a fall in carry out stocks in 2021 22. The average dry pea price was 74% higher than in 2020-21 at a record $590/t, due to solid demand. The average crop year prices for all dry pea types were higher than for the previous year.
For 2022‑23, production in Canada is estimated to increase by 59% to 3.6 Mt due to significantly higher yields in Western Canada. Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to account for 3.3 Mt of the dry pea production, with the remainder of the production in Manitoba, British Columbia and Eastern Canada. Supply is expected to be sharply higher by 42% over last year at nearly 4.1 Mt. Exports are forecast to rise sharply to 2.7 Mt, with China, the US and Bangladesh expected to be Canada’s top three markets. Expectations are also for an increase in domestic use, however, carry out stocks are forecast to rise due to larger supply. The average price is expected to decrease by 25% from 2021 22 to $440/t.
During the month of September, Saskatchewan yellow and green pea farm gate prices both fell $15/t. Green dry peas prices are currently at a $5/t premium to yellow dry peas compared to last year when green pea prices were a $65/t discount to yellow peas.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2022 23 is forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to decrease by 6% from last year to 0.9 million acres. This is largely due to an expected fall in area seeded in North Dakota and Montana. However, with higher yields and lower abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to increase by 29% to 0.5 Mt. The US exported about 230 thousand tonnes (Kt) of dry peas in 2021-22, mostly to Canada, the Philippines and China. The US is expected to try and maintain its market share in 2022 23 with production higher than the previous year.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 1,722 | 1,546 | 1,363 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 1,685 | 1,491 | 1,328 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.73 | 1.51 | 2.70 |
| Production (kt) | 4,594 | 2,258 | 3,586 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 81 | 29 | 80 |
| Total supply (kt) | 4,909 | 2,845 | 4,051 |
| Exports (b) | 3,582 | 1,909 | 2,700 |
| Total Domestic Use (c) | 768 | 551 | 701 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 559 | 385 | 650 |
| Stocks-to-Use Ratio | 13% | 16% | 19% |
| Average Price (d) | 340 | 590 | 440 |
|
|||
Lentils
For 2021‑22, lentil exports fell to 1.6 Mt, down 31% from the previous year. Of this, 1.0 Mt were red lentil types, with 0.6 Mt consisting of the green lentil types. The leading export markets were Turkey, India and the United Arab Emirates. Total domestic use was lower than the previous year at 0.3 Mt. Carry‑out stocks fell sharply to 0.22 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was significantly higher than 2020‑21 at $970/t. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained a crop year premium of $325/t over No.1 red lentil prices.
For 2022‑23, due to sharply higher yields in Western Canada, production is estimated to increase by 73% to 2.8 Mt. The production of large green lentils is forecast to increase from last year to 0.5 Mt and the production of red lentils is expected to be higher than last year at 2.0 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is also expected to be higher than last year at 0.26 Mt.
Supply is expected to be nearly 1.0 Mt higher than last year as smaller carry in stocks partly offset the increased production. Exports are expected to be 44% higher than last year at 2.3 Mt, with India, the United Arab Emirates, US and Turkey expected to remain the top export markets. Domestic use is forecast to be higher than last year at 376 Kt. Carry out stocks are forecast to increase sharply over the previous year to 0.4 Mt. The overall average price is forecast to be 23% lower than 2021 22, at $750/t. Large green lentil prices are forecast to have a smaller premium over red lentil prices when compared to last year.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2022 23 is forecast by the USDA at 0.67 million acres, down 5% from 2021 22 due to lower area seeded in Montana. With higher yields and lower abandonment, 2022 23 US lentil production is therefore forecast by the USDA to rise to 0.22 Mt, 47% higher than in 2021 22. US lentil exports are about 0.27 Mt annually, with the main markets continuing to be the EU, Canada, Columbia and Mexico.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 1,713 | 1,742 | 1,748 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 1,705 | 1,716 | 1,724 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.68 | 0.94 | 1.61 |
| Production (kt) | 2,868 | 1,606 | 2,777 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 110 | 51 | 75 |
| Total supply (kt) | 3,187 | 2,096 | 3,076 |
| Exports (b) | 2,326 | 1,600 | 2,300 |
| Total Domestic Use (c) | 422 | 271 | 376 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 438 | 224 | 400 |
| Stocks-to-Use Ratio | 16% | 12% | 15% |
| Average Price (d) | 645 | 970 | 750 |
|
|||
Dry Beans
For 2021‑22, dry bean exports were lower than the previous year at 327 Kt. The EU and the US were the top two markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Mexico. Carry out stocks rose as the smaller production was buffered by large carry-in stocks and moderate export demand from price conscious markets. The weaker Canadian dollar and a smaller North American dry bean crop provided the majority of the support for the record Canadian dry bean prices in 2021 22, which rose 30% from the previous year.
For 2022‑23, production is estimated to fall by 21% to 305 Kt, consisting of 80 Kt of white pea bean types and 225 Kt of coloured bean types. Production in Ontario and Alberta decreased while in Manitoba, dry bean production rose to 122 Kt.
Supply is forecast to decrease by 5% to 0.55 Mt despite higher carry in stocks. Exports are forecast to be higher than last year at 350 Kt. The US and the EU are forecast to remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with expectations that Canada will continue to expand its market share in Africa. Carry out stocks are also expected to fall to 115 Kt. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to increase marginally to a record $1,235/t due to the similar North American supply.
In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to fall by 10% to 1.25 million acres, mostly due to a smaller area seeded in North Dakota and Minnesota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at just over 1.1 Mt, up 11% from 2021 22. This is largely due to higher yields and lower abandonment. US export markets are expected to continue to be the EU, Mexico and Canada. US dry bean export quantities are similar to Canada at about 0.3 0.4 Mt annually.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 185 | 177 | 120 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 183 | 171 | 113 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.68 | 2.26 | 2.70 |
| Production (kt) | 490 | 386 | 305 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 63 | 75 | 75 |
| Total supply (kt) | 578 | 571 | 545 |
| Exports (b) | 396 | 327 | 350 |
| Total Domestic Use (c) | 72 | 79 | 80 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 110 | 165 | 115 |
| Stocks-to-Use Ratio | 24% | 41% | 27% |
| Average Price (d) | 930 | 1,210 | 1,235 |
|
|||
Chickpeas
For 2021‑22, Canadian chickpea exports rose by 10% from the previous year to 176 Kt. Higher exports to Turkey and the US resulted in the increase in exports. As a result of the smaller supply, and an increase in exports, carry out stocks fell from the previous year to 147 Kt. The average price increased by 52% to $975/t, due to increased export demand for all chickpea types.
For 2022‑23, production is estimated to rise sharply to 157 Kt, due to higher area and yields. However, supply is forecast to decrease by 9% to 349 Kt, due to lower carry in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower, with the EU, the US and Pakistan expected to remain the main markets for Canadian chickpeas. Carry out stocks are expected to decrease only marginally, which would be positive for prices. However, the average price is forecast to fall 5% on the expectation for increased world supply.
US chickpea seeded area is estimated by the USDA at 0.36 million acres, down marginally from 2021 22. With normal yields and lower abandonment, 2022 23 US chickpea production is forecast by the USDA at 178 Kt, 37% higher than in 2021 22.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 121 | 75 | 95 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 120 | 74 | 92 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.79 | 1.04 | 1.71 |
| Production (kt) | 214 | 76 | 157 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 41 | 30 | 45 |
| Total supply (kt) | 506 | 382 | 349 |
| Exports (b) | 160 | 176 | 150 |
| Total Domestic Use (c) | 70 | 59 | 59 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 275 | 147 | 140 |
| Stocks-to-Use Ratio | 119% | 63% | 67% |
| Average Price (d) | 640 | 975 | 925 |
|
|||
Mustard seed
For 2021‑22, Canadian mustard exports were marginally lower at 106 Kt, due to limited domestic supply. Carry-out stocks also fell due to lower supply. Prices rose for all types to a record level of $2,885/t, due to tight carry out stocks and strong demand.
For 2022‑23, production is estimated to nearly triple in size at 177 Kt due to higher harvested area and a return to more normal yields. The production of yellow, oriental and brown types all increased. Supply is forecast to rise year on year by 46%, moderated by low carry in stocks. Exports are expected to rise to 115 Kt. Carry out stocks are forecast to increase sharply to 55 Kt. The US and the EU are expected to remain the main export markets for Canadian mustard seed. The average price is forecast to decrease by 24%, due to a larger domestic supply, to $2,200/t.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 104 | 117 | 225 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 101 | 110 | 214 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 0.99 | 0.55 | 0.83 |
| Production (kt) | 100 | 61 | 177 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| Total supply (kt) | 191 | 130 | 190 |
| Exports (b) | 111 | 106 | 115 |
| Total Domestic Use (c) | 20 | 18 | 20 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 61 | 6 | 55 |
| Stocks-to-Use Ratio | 46% | 5% | 41% |
| Average Price (d) | 885 | 2,885 | 2,200 |
|
|||
Canary seed
For 2021‑22, exports were marginally higher than the previous year at 173 Kt. This was due to higher exports to Mexico. The record average price was supported by tight Canadian carry out stocks.
For 2022‑23, production is estimated to be higher by 28 Kt to 157 Kt, as lower harvested area is more than offset by improved yields. Exports are expected to be limited by lower supply on reduced carry-in stocks. The EU and Mexico are forecast to remain the main export markets, followed by South America and the US. Carry out stocks are expected to be similar. The average price is forecast to fall from 2021 22 to $900/t due to a rise in world production.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 135 | 124 | 118 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 135 | 123 | 107 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.67 | 1.05 | 1.47 |
| Production (kt) | 225 | 129 | 157 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total supply (kt) | 241 | 202 | 178 |
| Exports (b) | 160 | 173 | 145 |
| Total Domestic Use (c) | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 73 | 21 | 25 |
| Stocks-to-Use Ratio | 44% | 12% | 16% |
| Average Price (d) | 690 | 1,125 | 900 |
|
|||
Sunflower seed
For 2021‑22, sunflower seed exports were lower by 18% at 42 Kt due to decreased demand from the US. Despite this, carry out stocks rose only slightly, constrained by the smaller supply and stable domestic use. The total average Canadian price for sunflower seed increased sharply from the previous year due to higher oilseed and confectionery type prices.
For 2022‑23, production is estimated at 68 Kt, down 17% from last year, due to lower harvested area but higher yields. Supply is expected to decrease by only 8% to 216 Kt due to lower production though partly offset by increased carry in stocks. Although exports are forecast to be higher, carry out stocks are expected to fall by 20% to 95 Kt. The US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to rise by 7% due to higher prices for confectionery and similar prices for oilseed types of sunflower seed.
Area seeded to sunflower seed in the US is estimated by the USDA to have risen to nearly 1.7 million acres, 31% higher than last year, due to the increase in area seeded in North and South Dakota. The area seeded to oil type varieties increased to over 1.55 million acres and the area seeded to confectionery type varieties rose to 0.14 million acres. For 2022 23, US sunflower seed production is forecast by USDA at 1.32 Mt, 53% higher than last year.
For 2022 23, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at a record 64 Mt. This is marginally higher than last year due to increased expected production in the EU and record large carry-in stocks. World domestic use is expected to rise marginally to 53 Mt and world exports are forecast to increase by 24% to a record 4.9 Mt. World carry out stocks are expected to fall by 10% to 6.8 Mt, but remain well above the five-year average.
| 2020-2021 | 2021-2022[f] | 2022-2023[f] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area seeded (kha) | 45 | 41 | 38 |
| Area harvested (kha) | 45 | 40 | 33 |
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.25 | 2.03 | 2.07 |
| Production (kt) | 101 | 82 | 68 |
| Imports (kt) [b] | 36 | 37 | 30 |
| Total supply (kt) | 241 | 235 | 216 |
| Exports (b) | 51 | 42 | 45 |
| Total Domestic Use (c) | 74 | 75 | 76 |
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 116 | 118 | 95 |
| Stocks-to-Use Ratio | 93% | 102% | 78% |
| Average Price (d) | 620 | 900 | 960 |
|
|||
Historical data
Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.