Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2022-11-18

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (PDF version, 396 KB)

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) October Outlook for the 2022-2023 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. The outlook for the world’s grain markets continues to be affected by a number of factors: continued firm international demand and relatively tight supplies, the Russian invasion of Ukraine which has disrupted Black Sea production and global trade patterns, high inflation and concerns in regards to a global economic slowdown.

For the 2022-23 crop year, the outlook incorporates yield estimates from Statistics Canada’s (STC) September 14, 2022 Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates release. Total field crop production in Canada is estimated to have increased significantly; if realized, it would be the second highest production level on record, resulting in a rebuilding of total supply and a rebound in exports. Harvest in Western Canada is complete and initial indications from the Canadian Grain Commission Harvest Sample Program are for a good quality crop overall. In Eastern Canada, corn harvest is nearing completion while the soybean harvest has finished.

Crop prices are forecast to remain relatively strong for 2022-23, although decreasing for the most part from the elevated levels of 2021-22. The price forecasts are subject to significant volatility due to the elevated amount of uncertainty in global markets.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on December 16, 2022. STC is scheduled to publish its final principal field crop production estimates for the year on December 2, 2022, based on a survey in November of approximately 28,600 farmers across Canada.

**Total Grains And Oilseeds: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	27,491	27,571	27,771
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	26,536	26,459	26,532
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.45	2.53	3.40
Production (thousand tonnes)	91,459	67,058	90,310
Imports (thousand tonnes)	2,682	7,292	2,712
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	107,742	86,060	101,628
Exports (thousand tonnes)	50,926	31,689	45,770
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)	45,105	45,765	45,153
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	11,710	8,607	10,705
Table 1 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to Total Grains And Oilseeds note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Pulses and Special Crops^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	4,025	3,821	3,706
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	3,973	3,725	3,610
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.16	1.23	2.00
Production (thousand tonnes)	8,592	4,597	7,226
Imports (thousand tonnes)	338	231	269
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	9,851	6,460	8,561
Exports (thousand tonnes)	6,786	4,333	5,627
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)	1,434	1,061	1,369
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,632	1,066	1,565
Table 2 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Table 2 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Principal Field Crops: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{All Principal Field Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	31,516	31,392	31,477
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	30,510	30,185	30,142
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.28	2.37	3.24
Production (thousand tonnes)	100,051	71,656	97,536
Imports (thousand tonnes)	3,019	7,523	2,981
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	117,593	92,520	110,190
Exports (thousand tonnes)	57,712	36,021	51,397
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)	46,539	46,825	46,522
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	13,342	9,673	12,270
Table 3 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to All Principal Field Crops table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2022-23, Statistics Canada (STC) expects production to double to 6.12 Mt. However, industry estimates are not as optimistic, ranging from 5.6 million tonnes (Mt) to 5.9 Mt based on provincial yield reports. Total supply is currently pegged at 6.7 Mt. Final revisions will be made following STC’s final crop production estimates which will be released on December 2, 2022. Saskatchewan (SK) accounts for 76% of the production, Alberta for 23% and Manitoba for the remainder.

As of November 3, the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) puts 82% of all durum samples collected in the top 2 grades. The average protein content for CWAD 1, is 14.3% and that for CWAD 2, is 15%.

Exports remain pegged at 5.0 Mt, 84% more than in 2021-22 and 11% more than the last five-year average. For the period of August to September 2022, STC reports exports of durum at 0.37 Mt, with Italy accounting for 40% of shipments. They trail last year’s volumes by 40%, but are expected to pick up as the completed harvest enters the elevator system.

Domestic use is forecast at 0.8 Mt, in line with average levels, and closing stocks are forecast to grow from 0.6 Mt to 0.9 Mt, remaining 11% below the last five-year average.

World durum production is estimated by the International Grains Council to grow by 7% to 33.1 Mt, and total supply to rise by just under 1% to 39.6 Mt, constrained by opening stocks. Exports are forecast at 8.8 Mt, up 45% compared to 2021-22. Total use is expected to rise by 2% to 33.6 Mt, with 31.1 Mt as food use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 8% to 6.0 Mt with large contractions in Europe and Morocco; major exporter’s share of closing stocks is up 1% year-on-year at 2.4 Mt. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is forecasting US durum production at 1.74 Mt, up from 1.03 Mt last year, and exports at 0.54 Mt, +42% year-on-year.

The average SK spot price for CWAD 1, 13% protein was $415/tonne (t) from August to October 2022. The annual average price forecast for 2022-23 was raised to $440/tonne.

**Durum ^{Durum note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,302	2,319	2,431
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,295	2,233	2,372
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.86	1.36	2.63
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,571	3,038	6,117
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note b}	13	8	25
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,321	3,859	6,721
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note c}	5,766	2,716	5,000
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Durum note d}	198	208	200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	321	124	408
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note e}	742	565	821
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	813	579	900
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Durum note g}	302	631	440
Tableau 4 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Durum table note a referrer Tableau 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Durum table note b referrer Tableau 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Durum table note c referrer Tableau 4 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Durum table note d referrer Tableau 4 Note e otal domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Durum table note e referrer Tableau 4 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to Durum note f referrer Tableau 4 Note e Crop year average prices: Wheat (No.1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No.1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Durum note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2022-23, STC expects a 48% increase in production, currently reported at 28.59 Mt. Total supply is pegged at 31.78 Mt, with revisions to be made following the release of STC’s final crop production estimates in December. Saskatchewan accounts for 37.5% of Canada’s wheat production, Alberta (35.5%), Manitoba (17.9%), Ontario (7.6%), Quebec (1%), with the remaining 0.5% spread throughout the Maritimes and British Columbia.

Of the samples collected by the CGC, 93% of CWRS graded within the top 2 grades as of November 3; the average protein content is 14% for CWRS 1 and 13.6% for CWRS 2.

Exports are revised up to 18.5 Mt, up 49% year-on-year and 4% more than the last five-year average. For the period of August to September, exports of wheat, excluding durum, are reported at 2.7 Mt, up 4% compared to 2021-22. Domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast at 8.2 Mt and 5.1 Mt, respectively.

USDA raised their forecasts for all elements of the supply and demand balance sheet this month. Production was raised 1 Mt from the October report, with increases in Australia, Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom more than offsetting the expected decrease in Argentina and the European Union. It is pegged at 782.7 Mt, up 42% compared to 2021-22. Supply increased by 1.3 Mt to 1,059 Mt due to larger opening stocks. Global trade was raised by 0.3 Mt, with an increase in movement from Australia and India. It is now pegged at 208.7 Mt, a new record if realized. Carry-out stocks were revised up to 267.82 Mt, but remain 3% below last year’s levels. Excluding China, world all wheat stocks are expected at 123.46 Mt, down 11.09 Mt year-on-year.

The United States all wheat production is estimated at 44.8 Mt, down almost 5 Mt year-on-year, according to the USDA. Supply is pegged at 84.9 Mt. Projections for total use were raised up this month, by 0.14 Mt, to 29.75 Mt and closing stocks down by the same amount to 15.54 Mt; compared to 2021-22, this is a change of +2% and −14%, respectively. Exports remain unchanged at 21.09 Mt, down 3% year-on-year.

The average SK spot price for CWRS 1, 13.5% protein averaged $393/t from August to October 2022. The annual average price forecast for 2022-23 was raised to $420/t.

**Wheat Except Durum ^{Wheat except Durum note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Wheat except durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	7,892	7,133	7,915
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	7,723	6,960	7,687
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.74	2.77	3.65
Production (thousand tonnes)	28,866	19,258	28,585
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note b}	129	153	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	33,757	24,552	31,780
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note c}	20,566	12,412	18,500
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note d}	3,265	3,258	3,200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	4,041	4,975	4,205
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note e}	8,050	9,045	8,180
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	5,141	3,095	5,100
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Wheat except Durum note g}	271	447	420
Table 5 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 5 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 5 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 5 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 5 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 5 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 5 Note e Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Wheat^{All wheat note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{All wheat note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	10,194	9,453	10,345
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	10,018	9,193	10,059
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.54	2.43	3.45
Production (thousand tonnes)	35,437	22,296	34,703
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note b}	142	161	125
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	41,078	28,411	38,501
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note c}	26,332	15,128	23,500
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note d}	3,463	3,466	3,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	4,362	5,099	4,612
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note e}	8,793	9,610	9,001
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	5,954	3,673	6,000
Table 6 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 6 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 6 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 6 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 6 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 6 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2022-23, Canadian barley production was estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) at 9.43 million tonnes (Mt), 35% and 6%, respectively, higher than last year’s record low and the pre-2021 five-year average. The recovery in production was mainly due to near-normal yield performance which rebounded from last year's near-record low. Production is distributed as follows: 87% in Alberta, 38% in Saskatchewan, 7% in Manitoba, and 4% in all other provinces.

The increase in production more than offset the historically low carry-in stocks and smaller imports; as a result, supply is expected to increase by 27% year-on-year to nearly 10 Mt, but still remain 6% below the pre-2021 five-year average. Domestic use (including industrial and feed use) and exports are expected to expand from 2021-22. Carry-out stocks are projected to rise to 0.55 Mt, which is still a tight level.

The average price is predicted at $400/tonne (t), down from the record level of 2021-22, due to expectations for a recovery in domestic feed grain supply from last year’s drought. However, it will still remain historically high, largely underpinned by strong corn prices and robust demand.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the 2022-23 global barley situation includes larger production, stronger feed demand, smaller trade volumes and lower ending stocks. Stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be at a record low

**Barley^{Barley note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Barley note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	3,060	3,357	2,851
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,809	3,002	2,562
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.82	2.32	3.68
Production (thousand tonnes)	10,741	6,959	9,428
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note b}	294	228	60
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	11,991	7,897	9,992
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note c}	4,277	2,603	3,450
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Barley note d}	299	284	318
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	6,416	4,262	5,394
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note e}	7,003	4,790	5,992
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	711	504	550
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Barley note g}	294	432	400
Table 7 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 7 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 7 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 7 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table7 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 7 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 7 Note e Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No.1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2022-23, Canadian corn production was estimated at 14.86 Mt, a record level, 6% and 8%, respectively, higher than last year and the five-year average. Production is distributed as follows: 66% in Ontario, 24% in Quebec, 9% in Manitoba, and 1% in all other provinces.

Due to sharply lower imports more than offsetting larger production, supply is expected to decrease by 12% from the record high seen in 2021-22, to 19.6 Mt, but still be the second highest on record. Domestic use is predicted to decrease from 2021-22 mostly on lower feed use. Exports are projected to be on par with last year’s level, but significantly higher than the previous five-year average. Carry-out stocks are projected at 2.40 Mt, decreasing by 13% from last year’s record high but slightly higher than the previous five-year average.

The average price is predicted at $330/t, up from the old record reached in 2021-22, supported by the outlook for strong demand and high new crop corn prices in the United States (US).

The USDA raised the 2022-23 US corn production forecast in its November report. Most of the increase is expected to supply domestic feed demand and the rest will help rebuild ending stocks. For a year-over-year comparison, the 2022-23 US corn situation includes smaller supply, weaker domestic feed and industrial use, and the lowest ending stocks since 2012-13. The US farm average price of corn is projected at US$6.80/bushel (bu), unchanged from the October projection but up from the $6.00/bu set in 2021-22, and it is only slightly below the record high of $6.89/bu reached in 2012-13.

The USDA projects record-high 2022-23 corn production in Argentina and Brazil, two major corn exporting countries. However, the large production in the two countries is expected to be significantly offset by smaller corn production in European countries, Ukraine and the US. Worldwide, the 2022-23 corn situation includes smaller production, lower trade volumes, weaker feed and industrial demand, and lower ending stocks.

**Corn^{Corn note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Corn note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,440	1,413	1,475
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,408	1,391	1,441
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	9.63	10.06	10.32
Production (thousand tonnes)	13,563	13,984	14,861
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Corn note b}	1,639	6,201	2,000
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	17,762	22,354	19,607
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note c}	1,438	1,737	1,750
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note d}	5,376	5,797	5,500
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	8,764	12,058	9,941
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note e}	14,155	17,871	15,457
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	2,169	2,746	2,400
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Corn note g}	272	312	330
Table 8 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 8 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 8 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 8 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 8 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 8 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 8 Note e Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2022-23, Canadian oat production was estimated by STC at 4.65 Mt, 66% and 21%, respectively, higher than last year’s record low and the pre-2021 five-year average. Production is distributed as follows: 51% in Saskatchewan, 25% in Manitoba, 16% in Alberta, and 9% in all other provinces.

Due to the increase in production compensating for the historically low carry-in stocks, supply is expected to grow by 43% from 2021-22 to almost 5.0 Mt, which is a comfortable level. Domestic use, specifically feed use, and exports are predicted to increase. Carry-out stocks are projected to rise sharply from 2021-22 to 0.7 Mt, 18% over the pre-2021 five-year average.

The average price is forecast at $385/t, down sharply from the record levels in 2021-22, due to an expected supply rebound in North America, but remain historically high, supported by strong prices in neighbouring markets.

**Oats^{Oats note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Oats note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,554	1,385	1,608
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,314	1,176	1,301
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.48	2.39	3.58
Production (thousand tonnes)	4,576	2,808	4,654
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note b}	17	25	15
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	5,019	3,490	4,987
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note c}	2,972	2,302	2,850
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note d}	104	99	120
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,170	637	1,191
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note e}	1,390	870	1,437
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	657	318	700
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Oats note g}	301	565	385
Table 9 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 9 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 9 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 9 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 9 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 9 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 9 Note e Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US N^o.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2022-23, Canadian rye production was estimated by STC at 470 thousand tonnes (Kt), slightly below the 2021-22 level, but 26% above the previous five-year average. Production is distributed as follows: 44% in Manitoba, 19% in Saskatchewan, 17% in Alberta, and the rest mainly in Ontario and Quebec.

Supply is projected at 581 Kt, 3% and 24% higher than in 2021-22 and the previous five-year average, respectively. Total demand for rye is projected to decline due to lower feed use, given expected ample feed grain supplies in Western Canada, and lower exports. Carry-out stocks are projected at 165 Kt, up significantly from 2021-22 and the five-year average, due to larger supply and decreased demand.

The 2022-23 average price is projected at $260/t, 19% lower than the 2021-22 price forecast, due to expectations for larger 2022-23 feed grain supplies on the Canadian Prairies and a decrease in demand.

**Rye^{Rye note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Rye note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	237	246	237
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	153	147	143
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.19	3.22	3.28
Production (thousand tonnes)	488	473	470
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note b}	2	1	2
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	530	565	581
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note c}	153	151	145
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note d}	41	26	39
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	224	258	212
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note e}	287	304	271
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	91	109	165
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Rye note g}	225	320	260
Table 10 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 10 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 10 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 10 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 10 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 10 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 10 Note e Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No.1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Source: Statistics Canada

**Mixed Grains^{Mixed grains note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Mixed grains note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	168	133	138
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	97	65	47
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.41	2.53	2.63
Production (thousand tonnes)	233	164	124
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	233	164	124
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note c}	0	0	0
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note d}	0	0	0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	233	164	124
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note e}	233	164	124
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	0	0	0
Table 11 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 11 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 11 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 11 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 11 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 11 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Coarse Grains^{Total coarse grains note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Total coarse grains note f}
Area Seeded	6,459	6,534	6,309
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	5,781	5,780	5,494
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	5.12	4.22	5.38
Production (thousand tonnes)	29,601	24,387	29,538
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note b}	1,952	6,455	2,077
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	35,535	34,469	35,290
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note c}	8,840	6,793	8,195
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note d}	5,819	6,206	5,977
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	16,808	17,378	16,862
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note e}	23,068	24,000	23,280
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,627	3,676	3,815
Table 12 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 12 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 12 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 12 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 12 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 12 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2022-23, canola seeded area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares (Mha), down 4% from last year, with a predicted harvested area of 8.6 Mha. Yields are estimated at 2.23 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) compared to last year’s drought reduced 1.54 t/ha. Production is projected at 19.1 Mt based on the Statistics Canada’s model-based estimates released on September 14, 2022. By province, Saskatchewan is forecast to grow 9.7 Mt of canola, Alberta 6.1 Mt and Manitoba 3.1 Mt. Harvest is complete across western Canada following a warm and dry fall. Total supply is forecast to rise sharply from last year to 20.1 Mt, as the increase in production is constrained by tight carry-in.

Usage of Canadian canola is forecast to recover; expected exports are up by about 77% to 9.3 million tonnes (Mt) while domestic crush rises to 10.0 Mt versus 8.6 Mt last year. The pace of exports to-date is 103% of last year based on Canadian Grain Commission data, with shipments to Mexico, China and Japan accounting for 39%, 37% and 17%, respectively, of the total market share to the end of September. Oil content of Western Canadian canola is averaging 42.7% to-date, based on a survey of 1,369 samples. 94% of Canadian canola is grading Number 1. Carry-out stocks are down to 0.50 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 3%. Canola prices are forecast to decline to $910/tonne (t) track Vancouver. If realized, this would be the second highest canola price on record.

The 2022-23 outlook remains sensitive to several factors: (i) strength of world import demand for Canadian canola, (ii) pace of domestic crush, (iii) competition from Australian and European rapeseed, (iv) fate of the western United States (US) drought, (v) rate of growth in the biodiesel and alternate vegetable protein markets and (vi) fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

**Canola^{Canola note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Canola note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	8,410	9,016	8,667
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	8,325	8,949	8,580
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.34	1.54	2.23
Production (thousand tonnes)	19,485	13,757	19,099
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note b}	125	105	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	23,044	15,638	20,074
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note c}	10,589	5,268	9,300
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note d}	10,425	8,555	10,000
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	190	878	223
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note e}	10,680	9,496	10,274
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,776	875	500
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Canola note g}	730	1,075	910
Table 13 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to canola note a referrer Table 13 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to canola table note b referrer Table 13 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to canola table note c referrer Table 13 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to canola table note d referrer Table 13 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to canola table note e referrer Table 13 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to canola table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2022-23, flaxseed area is estimated at 0.32 Mha, versus the five-year average of 0.39 Mha, with harvested area projected at 0.30 Mha. Yields are projected at 1.5 t/ha based on an estimated production of 0.47 Mt – 70% of which occurs in Saskatchewan. Total supply is forecast to increase by 34% to 0.56 Mt, on higher output and carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast to increase to 0.38 Mt on stable world usage. To the end of September, exports are running at 65% of last year’s pace with about two-thirds of the shipments destined for the US. Total domestic use is estimated at 95,000 tonnes on lower feed, waste and dockage, while carry-out stocks rise marginally to 90,000 t. Flaxseed prices are forecast to decline but remain historically strong at $750/t for 2022-23.

**Flaxseed (excluding solin) ^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	377	416	315
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	371	404	303
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.56	0.86	1.53
Production (thousand tonnes)	578	346	465
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note b}	26	12	10
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	667	417	560
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note c}	505	219	375
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note d}	N/A	N/A	N/A
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	85	99	76
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed note e}	103	113	95
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	59	85	90
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note g}	693	1,206	750
Table 14 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note a referrer Table 14 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note b referrer Table 14 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note c referrer Table 14 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note d referrer Table 14 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note e referrer Table 14 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note f referrer N/A: not available Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Soybeans

For 2022-23, farmers planted 2.13 Mha to soybeans in Canada, versus 2.15 Mha last year, with harvested area estimated at 2.10 Mha. Production is 6.5 Mt, versus 6.3 Mt in 2021-22, based on Statistics Canada’s satellite-image, model-based estimates. Total supply is forecast to increase to 7.2 Mt, on higher production and carry-in combined with stable imports.

Exports are forecast to increase 3%, to 4.4 Mt, with shipments headed to a diverse group of countries. The export pace through Canada’s licensed grain handling facilities to the end of September is up 24%, with nearly all of the shipments headed into the European Union. Domestic processing is forecast up slightly to 1.9 Mt compared to last year. Carry-out stocks are forecast up marginally from last year at 0.30 Mt versus the five-year average of 0.49 Mt.

Soybean prices are forecast to rise to $685/t on support from higher US prices and a weaker Canadian dollar offsetting pressure from a large US soybean crop. A stable Canada-US dollar exchange rate is assumed for the duration of 2022-23.

For 2022-23, world oilseed production is forecast at 646 Mt by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), down by 1 Mt from last month but a rise of 41 Mt from last year. US soybean production is projected at 4.35 billion bushels (Bbu), down 3% from last year, creating a slight drop in American soybean supplies. US soybean exports are forecast at 2.05 Bbu while domestic crush increases to 2.25 Bbu. Ending stocks are predicted to fall to 0.22 Bbu, versus 0.27 Bbu for 2021-22 and the five-year average of 0.48 Bbu. The USDA projects the farm gate price of soybeans to remain unchanged from last month at US$14.00/bu, versus US$13.30/bu for 2021-22.

**Soybeans^{Soybeans note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Soybeans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,052	2,154	2,135
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,041	2,134	2,097
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.12	2.94	3.10
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,359	6,272	6,505
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note b}	438	560	400
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,417	7,125	7,203
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note c}	4,661	4,281	4,400
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note d}	1,636	1,858	1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	603	468	403
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note e}	2,462	2,547	2,503
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	294	298	300
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Soybeans note g}	605	678	685
Table 15 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 15 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 15 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 15 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 15 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 15 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Table 15 Note e Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham) Return to soybeans table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Oilseeds^{Total Oilseeds note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Total Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	10,839	11,585	11,116
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	10,738	11,486	10,980
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.46	1.77	2.37
Production (thousand tonnes)	26,421	20,375	26,070
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note b}	588	676	510
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	31,129	23,180	27,837
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note c}	15,755	9,768	14,075
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note d}	12,061	10,413	11,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	878	1,444	702
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note e}	13,245	12,155	12,872
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	2,129	1,257	890
Table 16 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 16 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 16 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 16 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 16 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 16 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2022-23, production is estimated to rise by 59% to 3.6 million tonnes (Mt). This is largely due to higher yields, especially in Saskatchewan where 51% of the peas are grown. Yellow pea production is forecast to be higher than last year at 3.0 Mt, while green pea production is expected to rise to 0.5 Mt. Production of the other remaining dry pea types is also expected to be higher at 130 thousand tonnes (Kt). Supply is forecast to be only 41% above last year at 4.0 Mt due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase significantly to 2.5 Mt. From August to September 2022, China and Bangladesh were Canada’s top two markets. With the larger supply, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply. The average price is expected to decrease by 22% from the record set in 2021-22 to $460/tonne (t).

During October, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan rose by $60/t while the price of green pea types rose by $55/t. Current indications of crop quality suggest a higher percentage of Canadian dry peas will grade No. 1 and No. 2 when compared to last year. This, coupled with the sharply higher Canadian output, will result in a larger supply of No.1 and No. 2 dry peas for this crop year. For the crop year to-date, there has been a $10/t premium for green dry peas to yellow dry peas, versus a green pea discount of $61/t below yellow peas in 2021-22.

Area seeded to dry peas in the United States (US) for 2022-23 is forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to fall by 6% from last year to just over 0.9 million acres. This is largely due to lower seeded area in North Dakota and Montana. US dry pea yields are estimated to be below average, however, dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to rise from last year’s drought by 29% to 0.5 Mt. The main export markets for US dry peas are Canada, the Philippines and India.

**Dry Peas^{Dry peas note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Dry peas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,722	1,546	1,363
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,685	1,491	1,328
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.73	1.51	2.70
Production (thousand tonnes)	4,594	2,258	3,586
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note b}	81	29	30
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	4,909	2,845	4,001
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Dry peas note b}	3,582	1,909	2,500
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note c}	768	551	751
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	559	385	750
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	13%	16%	23%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry peas note d}	340	590	460
Table 17 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry peas table note a referrer Table 17 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry peas table note b referrer Table 17 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry peas table note c referrer Table 17 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry peas table note d referrer Table 17 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to dry peas table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2022-23, production is estimated to rise by over 1.0 Mt (73%) to nearly 2.8 Mt, due to higher yields in Western Canada. Production of red lentils rose sharply from last year to nearly 2.1 Mt, while large green lentil production increased to just over 0.5 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is expected to rise to 0.2 Mt.

However, supply is expected to rise by only 47% due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to rise to 2.3 Mt. To-date, India, Turkey and Bangladesh are the top export markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to 0.4 Mt. The overall average price is forecast to fall by 18% from the record levels of 2021-22, to $800/t, with an above average grade distribution.

During the month of October, the on-farm price in Saskatchewan for large green lentils rose by $220/t and red lentil prices increased by $65/t. This was largely due to above average export demand. Compared to last year, an increase in the supply of No. 1 or No. 2 grade Canadian lentils is expected for 2022-23. To-date, large green lentil prices have maintained a premium of $290/t over red lentil prices, compared to a $325/t premium in 2021-22.

For 2022-23, US area seeded to lentils is forecast by the USDA to fall 0.7 million acres, down 5% from 2021-22, largely due to lower area seeded in Montana. With higher yields and lower abandonment, 2022-23 US lentil production is therefore forecast by the USDA at 0.22 Mt, up 47% from the production in 2021-22. The main US export markets for lentils to-date are the European Union (EU), Canada and Mexico.

**Lentils^{Lentils note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Lentils note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,713	1,742	1,748
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,705	1,716	1,724
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.68	0.94	1.61
Production (thousand tonnes)	2,868	1,606	2,777
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	110	51	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	3,187	2,096	3,076
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	2,326	1,600	2,300
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note c}	422	271	376
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	438	224	400
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	16%	12%	15%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Lentils note d}	645	970	800
Table 18 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to lentils table note a referrer Table 18 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to lentils table note b referrer Table 18 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to lentils table note c referrer Table 18 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to lentils table note d referrer Table 18 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to lentils table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry Beans

For 2022-23, production is estimated to have decreased by 21% to 305 Kt. This includes 80 Kt of white pea bean types and 225 Kt of colored bean types. Production in Ontario fell due to lower seeded area while production increased in Manitoba due to higher yields. In Alberta, colored dry bean production decreased due to lower area. Supply is forecast to fall by only 5%, due to higher carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast to be similar to last year. Based on data for August and September, the EU and the US are the top two markets. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease due to the lower level of supply and similar demand. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to remain unchanged at a record $1,210/t due to similar North American supply.

Area seeded to dry beans in the US is estimated by the USDA to decrease by 10% to 1.25 million acres, mostly due to smaller area seeded in North Dakota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at just over 1.1 Mt, up 11% from 2021-22. The largest increases are expected for black beans and pinto beans. The main US export markets continue to be the EU and Mexico.

**Dry Beans^{Dry beans note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Dry beans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	185	177	120
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	183	171	113
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.68	2.26	2.70
Production (thousand tonnes)	490	386	305
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	63	75	70
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	578	571	540
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	396	327	327
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note c}	72	79	78
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	110	165	135
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	24%	41%	33%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry beans note d}	930	1,210	1,210
Table 19 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 19 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 19 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 19 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 19 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2022-23, production is estimated at 157 Kt, more than double the output from last year due to both higher seeded area and yields. The production of both kabuli and desi types is estimated to be higher than the previous year. Total supply, however, is forecast to decrease by 9%, due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast at 180 Kt with the US and Pakistan as the top markets. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall, largely due to decreased supply. The average price is forecast to be higher than the previous year, at a record $1,000/t, with an average Canadian crop quality, despite expectations for increased world production.

The USDA has estimated US chickpea area seeded at 0.36 million acres, marginally lower than in 2021-22. With average yields, 2022-23 US chickpea production is forecast by the USDA at 0.18 Mt, up 37% from 2021-22.

**Chickpeas ^{Chickpeas note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Chickpeas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	121	75	95
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	120	74	92
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.79	1.04	1.71
Production (thousand tonnes)	214	76	157
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	41	30	45
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	506	382	349
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	160	176	180
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note c}	70	59	59
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	275	147	110
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	119%	63%	46%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Chickpeas note d}	640	975	1,000
Table 20 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 20 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 20 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 20 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 20 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2022-23, production is estimated to have nearly tripled to 177 Kt due to higher yields and seeded area. Production of yellow, brown and oriental types of mustard increased. Total supply is forecast to rise by 48% to 192 Kt. Exports are expected to be higher at 110 Kt and, as of August and September, the US and the EU are the top two markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply in Canada and in the US, as a result, the average price is forecast to fall from the record prices seen in 2021-22, to $2,300/t but remain high by historical standards.

**Mustard Seed ^{Mustard Seed note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Mustard Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	104	117	225
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	101	110	214
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	0.99	0.55	0.83
Production (thousand tonnes)	100	61	177
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	6	9	9
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	191	130	192
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	111	106	110
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note c}	20	18	22
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	61	6	60
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	46%	5%	45%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Mustard Seed note d}	885	2,885	2,300
Table 21 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 21 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 21 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 21 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 21 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2022-23, production is estimated to rise by 22% to 157 Kt due to lower area but higher yields. Exports are expected to be lower than the previous year. Based on data for August and September, Mexico and the EU are the top two export markets, followed by US. Carry-out stocks are expected to tighten. The average price is forecast to be 20% lower than record prices seen last year at $900/t.

**Canary Seed ^{Canary Seed note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Canary Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	135	124	118
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	135	123	107
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.67	1.05	1.47
Production (thousand tonnes)	225	129	157
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	241	202	178
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	160	173	165
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note c}	8	8	8
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	73	21	5
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	44%	12%	3%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Canary Seed note d}	690	1,125	900
Table 22 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 22 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 22 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 22 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2022-23, production is estimated to have fallen to 68 Kt on lower harvested area, despite increased yields. When compared to 2021-22, supply is expected to decrease to 226 Kt, as higher carry-in stocks partly offset lower production. Exports are forecast to be slightly higher than the previous year, and carry-out stocks are forecast to fall. The US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The price is forecast to be $870/t, slightly lower than last year, mostly due to weaker oilseed type prices than in 2021-22.

US sunflower seed production for 2022-23 is forecast by the USDA at 1.3 Mt, up 53% from 2021-22. This is largely due to higher production in North and South Dakota. Production of oil type varieties is estimated to have risen to 1.2 Mt and the production of confectionery type varieties is estimated to have increased to 0.1 Mt. However, total US supply is expected to decrease by 33% to 1.6 Mt. Domestic use is expected to rise. US sunflower seed carry-out stocks are expected to rise and pressure North American prices.

The world supply of sunflower seed for 2022-23 is estimated by the USDA at a record 64.4 Mt. This is 2% higher than last year, due to increased production in the Ukraine and Russia. World domestic use is expected to rise to 52.8 Mt and world exports are forecast to rise to a record 4.9 Mt. World carry-out stocks are expected to decrease by 10% to 6.8 Mt.

**Sunflower Seed ^{Sunflower Seed note a}: November 18, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Sunflower Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	45	41	38
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	45	40	33
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.25	2.03	2.07
Production (thousand tonnes)	101	82	68
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	36	37	40
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	241	235	226
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	51	42	45
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note c}	74	75	76
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	116	118	105
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	93%	102%	86%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Sunflower Seed note d}	620	900	870
Table 23 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 23 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 23 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 23 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

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