Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2022-12-16

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (PDF version, 222 KB)

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri Food Canada’s (AAFC) November Outlook for the 2022 2023 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. The outlook for the world’s grain markets continues to be affected by a number of factors: firm international demand and relatively tight world supplies, the Russian invasion of Ukraine which continues to disrupt Black Sea production and global trade patterns, high inflation and concerns in regards to a global economic slowdown.

For the 2022-23 the outlook incorporates the results of Statistics Canada’s (STC) November Farm Survey of crop production, which was released on December 2, 2022, and was based on a survey of approximately 27,200 farmers that was conducted from October 7 to November 14, 2022. These are the last official estimates for crop production from STC in 2022 and replace the model-based ones that were released on September 14, 2022.

Total 2022 field crop production for Canada is estimated by STC to be 34.1% higher than in 2021, 5.6% above the previous five-year average, and the third largest crop on record, largely due to a significant increase in yields as seeded and harvested areas were largely unchanged. Western Canadian production of principal field crops is estimated to have increased by 50.8% from the drought-reduced crop of 2021 and be 6.0% above the previous five-year average. Marked production increases were realized for all wheat (51.7%), coarse grains (25.0%), oilseeds (23.6%) and pulses and special crops (42.9%). The increase in production and supply allows for a rebound in exports, while carry-out stocks (ending year inventories) are expected to increase from their historic low but still end the year at relatively tight levels.

Crop prices are forecast to remain relatively strong for 2022-23, although decreasing for the most part from the elevated levels achieved in 2021-22. The price forecasts are subject to significant volatility due to the elevated amount of uncertainty in global markets.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on January 20, 2023.

**Total Grains And Oilseeds^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	27,491	27,571	27,669
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	26,536	26,459	26,814
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.45	2.53	3.34
Production (thousand tonnes)	91,459	67,058	89,489
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note b}	2,682	7,292	2,712
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	107,742	86,060	100,808
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note c}	50,926	31,689	45,515
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note e}	45,105	45,765	44,428
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	11,710	8,607	10,865
Table 1 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Tableau 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops e referrer Table 1 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Pulses and Special Crops^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	4,025	3,821	3,707
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	3,973	3,725	3,649
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.16	1.23	1.80
Production (thousand tonnes)	8,592	4,597	6,570
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note b}	338	231	272
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	9,851	6,460	7,908
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note b}	6,786	4,333	5,647
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note c}	1,434	1,061	1,126
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,632	1,066	1,135
Table 2 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 2 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 2 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 2 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Principal Field Crops^{All Principal Field Crops note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{All Principal Field Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	31,516	31,392	31,376
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	30,510	30,185	30,462
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.28	2.37	3.15
Production (thousand tonnes)	100,051	71,656	96,059
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note b}	3,019	7,523	2,984
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	117,593	92,520	108,716
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note b}	57,712	36,021	51,162
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note c}	46,539	46,825	45,564
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	13,342	9,673	12,000
Table 3 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 3 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 3 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 3 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to All Principal Field Crops table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2022-23, Canadian durum production increased by 79% from 2021-22 to 5.44 million tonnes (Mt), due to an increase in seeded area and a return to average yields. STC’s final production estimate, released December 2, were down by 0.67 Mt (-10%), compared to the September estimate due to lower yields. Survey results show an average national yield of 2.27 t/ha versus the 2.58 t/ha reported by STC in September. Saskatchewan accounted for 77% of the production, Alberta for 22% and Manitoba for 1%.

Total supply is now forecast at 6.05 Mt, +57% compared to 2021-22, but 6% below the last five year average. Compared to last month’s report, exports were downgraded to 4.8 Mt due to reduced overall supplies. From August to October, STC reports durum shipments at 0.84 Mt; the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) puts durum export shipments at 1.48 Mt, from August 1 to end of November, +38% more than from the same period in 2021.

Domestic use and stocks were reduced as a result of the lower supply. They are now pegged at 0.75 Mt and 0.5 Mt, respectively, up compared to 2021-22, but lower than average levels.

The average quality in terms of grades is better than in 2021-22 and also higher than the last five-year average. According to the CGC’s sample survey analysis to November 17, 2022, 81% of the durum graded No. 1 and 2 compared to 70% last year. The protein content averaged 14.5%, lower than for 2021-22 at 15.7%.

World durum production grew by 7% from 2020-21 due to a rebound in yields in North America. This however remains 2% below the five-year average due to the smaller harvests in Europe and North Africa, mainly Morocco, according to the International Grains Council. Total supply will rebound 1% year on year, restricted by tight carry-in stocks. Total use is forecast at 33.6 Mt, +2% versus 2021-22 on higher feed use. Carry-out stocks were cut 0.2 Mt compared to the previous report, now pegged at 6.1 Mt, with stocks in major exporting nations at 2.6 Mt (+9% y/y). Global durum trade is anticipated to grow close to 40% year on year to reach 8.4 Mt.

In the US, durum production grew by 0.71 Mt to 1.74 Mt, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). US exports of durum are forecast at 0.54 Mt.

The average 2022-23 Saskatchewan (SK) spot price for No. 1 Canadian Western Amber Durum is forecast at $440/t, with upward pressure due to lower domestic supplies.

**Durum ^{Durum note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,302	2,319	2,431
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,295	2,233	2,399
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.86	1.36	2.27
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,571	3,038	5,443
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note b}	13	8	25
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,321	3,859	6,047
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note c}	5,766	2,716	4,800
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Durum note d}	198	208	200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	321	124	334
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note e}	742	565	747
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	813	579	500
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Durum note g}	302	631	440
Tableau 4 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Durum table note a referrer Tableau 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Durum table note b referrer Tableau 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Durum table note c referrer Tableau 4 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Durum table note d referrer Tableau 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Durum table note e referrer Tableau 4 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to Durum note f referrer Tableau 4 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Durum note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2022-23, Canadian wheat production rose by 47% from 2021-22 to 28.38 Mt, due to an increase in seeded area accompanied by a return to average yields. This is the third largest crop on record. STC’s final production estimate was 0.2 Mt, or 1%, lower than its September estimate due to a downward revision to seeded area. Saskatchewan accounts for 37% of the wheat production, Alberta 36%, Manitoba 17%, Ontario 8% and Quebec 1%; the remaining 1% is found in the Maritimes and British Columbia.

STC estimates for winter wheat seeded this fall came in at 718,200 ha up 32% compared to the fall of 2022, with an expansion of area in Ontario (+45%), Quebec (+29%), Prince Edward Island (+22%) and British Columbia (+21%). Area seeded to winter wheat in Alberta remains relatively steady at 61,900 ha.

The average quality for CWRS wheat in terms of grades is slightly better than last year and better than the past five-year average. According to the Canadian Grain Commission’s sample survey analysis to November 17, 2022, 93% of the CWRS wheat graded No. 1 and 2, compared to 89% last year. The protein content averaged 13.9%, lower than for 2021-22 at 14.7%.

Compared to last month’s report, total supply was tightened 1% as a result of the lower production. It is now pegged at 31.58 Mt. The export forecast however was raised to 18.9 Mt on account of the fast export pace shown to date. According to STC, exports of wheat, from August to October are reported at 4.8 Mt, up 37% compared to the same period last year. The CGC reports shipments from August to November at over 6.4 Mt, outpacing last year’s volumes by over 50%.

Domestic use in 2022-23 is forecast at 8.2 Mt, on par with the five year average. Closing stocks were reduced from 5.1 Mt to 4.5 Mt, also in line with average levels.

The world all wheat (including durum) production forecast was revised down this month by the USDA. Compared to the previous report, global production was reduced 2.1 Mt to 780.59 Mt due to smaller production estimates for Canada and Argentina, offsetting the forecasted growth in the Australian harvest. Total supplies for 2022-23 are forecast at 1,056.86 Mt, down 1% year on year. Global consumption was also reduced 1.6 Mt compared to last month; it is pegged at 789.53 Mt, on reduced feed use.

Total trade was expanded, now forecast at 210.85 Mt, up 4% year on year, while world all wheat carry out stocks were reduced 0.49 Mt compared to last month’s report, at 267.33 Mt, they are 3% lower than in 2021-22.

The US wheat supply forecast for 2022-23 remains steady at 66.38 Mt, with exports projected at 21.09 Mt, domestic use at 29.75 Mt and ending stocks at 15.54 Mt, down 15% year on year.

The average 2022-23 SK spot price for No. 1 Canadian Western Red Spring wheat is forecast at $420/t.

**Wheat Except Durum ^{Wheat except Durum note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Wheat except durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	7,892	7,133	7,844
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	7,723	6,960	7,683
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.74	2.77	3.69
Production (thousand tonnes)	28,866	19,258	28,380
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note b}	129	153	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	33,757	24,551	31,575
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note c}	20,566	12,412	18,900
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note d}	3,265	3,258	3,200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	4,041	4,974	4,200
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note e}	8,050	9,045	8,175
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	5,141	3,095	4,500
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Wheat except Durum note g}	271	447	420
Table 5 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 5 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 5 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 5 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 5 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 5 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 5 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Wheat^{All wheat note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{All wheat note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	10,194	9,453	10,274
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	10,018	9,193	10,082
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.54	2.43	3.35
Production (thousand tonnes)	35,437	22,296	33,824
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note b}	142	161	125
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	41,078	28,411	37,622
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note c}	26,332	15,128	23,700
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note d}	3,463	3,466	3,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	4,362	5,099	4,533
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note e}	8,793	9,610	8,922
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	5,954	3,673	5,000
Table 6 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 6 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 6 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 6 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 6 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 6 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2022-23, the Canadian barley production estimate was finalized by Statistics Canada (STC) in its December production report at nearly 10 million tonnes (Mt), 6% or 559 thousand tonnes (Kt) above the September model-based forecast, largely reflecting an 11% (551 Kt) increase in Alberta barley production. National yield potential and harvested area were also raised from September estimates. For now, the final production estimate is 44% and 13%, respectively, above last year's record low and the previous five-year average. The recovery in 2022 production mainly benefited from near-normal yield performance on the Canadian Prairies, which rebounded from last year's near-record lows. Production is distributed as follows: 54% in Alberta, 36% in Saskatchewan, 7% in Manitoba, and 3% in all other provinces.

In the largest barley-producing province of Alberta, the 2022 barley output was pegged at 5.38 Mt, up from 4.83 Mt in September and the highest since 2013 due to improved yield and a larger harvested area. The provincial yield level was pegged at 4.08 t/ha, up 60% and 14%, respectively, from last year's near-record low and the previous five-year average, and close to the record high achieved in 2016. Barley output in Saskatchewan and Manitoba was lowered by 1% in each province from September, largely reflecting deteriorated yield, despite larger harvested area.

Due to the significant increase in production more than offsetting the historically low carry-in stocks and smaller imports, supply is expected to increase by 34% year on year to nearly 10.6 Mt, but still be 6% below the pre-2021 five-year average. Domestic use and exports are expected to expand from 2021-22, given larger supplies. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.90 Mt, rising sharply from last year’s record low.

According to STC’s monthly international trade data, Canadian barley exports in August-October 2022, the first three months of the 2022-23 crop year, were pegged at 816 thousand tonnes (Kt), down from 989 Kt in August-October 2021 but up from 592 Kt for the previous five-year average in the same period. The monthly export rate during August-October 2022 has increased sharply. Of the total export volume, about 88% was shipped to China and 10% to the US. Barley malt exports in August-October 2022 neared 122 Kt, down from about 140 Kt in August-October 2021 and the previous five-year average. Compared to barley grain exports, exporting pace of malt has been relatively stable. Of the total exports, about 52% were shipped to the US, 27% to Japan and 11% to Mexico.

For the crop year to-date, feed barley prices in Alberta averaged $360/t, $15/t under the level a year ago. In Saskatchewan, feed barley prices averaged nearly $315/t, $35/t below last year’s level. In Manitoba, feed barley prices averaged around $320/t, $35/t lower than a year ago. Malting barley prices in the three provinces declined by about $70/t from a year ago. As a result, the price premium for malting barley relative to feed barley declined from last year’s high in all three provinces. For the entire crop year, the Lethbridge feed barley average price is predicted at $400/t, down nearly $30/t from last year’s record high due to expectations for a recovery in domestic feed grain supply. However, it will remain historically high, largely underpinned by strong corn prices and robust demand.

Worldwide, feed barley prices in the US/Montana have risen in recent weeks despite declining CBOT corn futures prices, with the crop year to-date average lower than that of a year ago. Feed barley export quotations from the Black Sea, Europe/France, and Australia/Adelaide have fallen in recent weeks, with the crop year to-date averages higher than a year ago. Australia/Adelaide malt barley prices have strengthened in recent weeks.

**Barley^{Barley note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Barley note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	3,060	3,357	2,851
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,809	3,002	2,636
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.82	2.32	3.79
Production (thousand tonnes)	10,741	6,959	9,987
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note b}	294	228	60
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	11,991	7,897	10,551
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note c}	4,277	2,603	3,670
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Barley note d}	299	284	318
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	6,416	4,262	5,383
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note e}	7,003	4,790	5,981
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	711	504	900
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Barley note g}	294	432	400
Table 7 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 7 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 7 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 7 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table7 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 7 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 7 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2022-23, the Canadian corn production estimate was finalized by STC at 14.54 Mt, 2% (322 Kt) below the September forecast, largely reflecting a 4% (364 Kt) decrease in Ontario corn production. National yield potential was also lowered from the September estimate, but harvested area was revised slightly higher. For now, the final production estimate remains at a record level and is 4% and 5%, respectively, higher than last year and the previous five-year average. Production is distributed as follows: 65% in Ontario, 24% in Quebec, 9% in Manitoba, and 2% in all other provinces.

In the largest corn-producing province of Ontario, 2022 corn output was pegged at 9.44 Mt, down from 9.80 Mt in September, largely due to a decline in yield, despite larger harvested area. The final 2022 corn output in Ontario remains large and is only slightly lower than last year’s record high. The estimates of corn output for Quebec and Manitoba were revised higher from the September forecast, largely reflecting improved yield in both provinces, despite smaller harvested area.

Due to sharply lower imports more than offsetting larger production and carry-in stocks, supply is expected to decrease by 14% from the record high seen in 2021-22 to 19.28 Mt, but still be the second highest on record. Domestic use is predicted to decrease from 2021-22 on lower feed use. Exports are projected to be on par with last year’s level, but increase significantly from the previous five-year average. Carry-out stocks are projected at 2.40 Mt, decreasing by 13% from last year’s record high but slightly higher than the previous five-year average.

During September-October 2022, the first two months of the 2022-23 crop year for corn, Canada imported 186 Kt of corn, versus 425 Kt in September-October 2021 and 339 Kt for the previous five-year average in the same period. The majority of the imported corn originated in the US and was destined for Western Canada. Canadian corn exports in September-October 2022 were pegged at 88 Kt, versus over 90 Kt in September-October 2021 and the previous five-year average in the same period. Of the total exports, about 53% were shipped to European countries and 47% to the US.

Corn prices posted a decline in recent weeks, with the average price in Ontario/Chatham region declining to nearly $315/t, versus $330/t a month ago. For the entire crop year, the Chatham corn price is projected at $320/t, nearly $10/t above last year’s historical high, supported by the outlook for brisk demand and strong US corn prices.

In the US, the marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers for corn was predicted by the USDA at US$6.70/bu, down from US$6.80/bu a month ago, but up from US$6.00/bu a year ago and only slightly lower than the record high US$6.89/bu in 2012-13. US corn export quotations at the Gulf of Mexico have been in a downward trend over the recent two months and were pegged at under US$300/t, the lowest in more than three months and on par with corn prices at Argentina/Up River and Brazil/Paranagua, but about US$30/t higher than Ukrainian corn export quotations.

**Corn^{Corn note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Corn note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,440	1,413	1,466
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,408	1,391	1,444
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	9.63	10.06	10.07
Production (thousand tonnes)	13,563	13,984	14,539
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Corn note b}	1,639	6,201	2,000
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	17,762	22,354	19,284
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note c}	1,438	1,737	1,750
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note d}	5,376	5,797	5,500
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	8,764	12,058	9,619
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note e}	14,155	17,871	15,134
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	2,169	2,746	2,400
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Corn note g}	272	312	320
Table 8 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 8 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 8 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 8 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 8 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 8 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 8 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2022-23, the Canadian oat production estimate was finalized by STC at 5.23 Mt, 12% (572 Kt) above the September forecast, largely reflecting a 46% (331 Kt) increase in Alberta and an 8% (189 Kt) increase in Saskatchewan. Oat production in most provinces were revised higher, except in Nova Scotia and British Columbia. National yield and harvested area were also raised from the September estimates. For now, the final production estimate is 86% and 39%, respectively, above last year's historical low and the previous five-year average, and also a record level. The recovery in 2022 production mainly benefited from above-normal yield performance on the Canadian Prairies, which rebounded from last year's near-record lows, and the significantly expanded area on the Canadian Prairies, which reached a recent fourteen-year high. Production is distributed as follows: 49% in Saskatchewan, 22% in Manitoba, 20% in Alberta, and less than 9% in all other provinces.

Due to the notable increase in production compensating for the historically low carry-in stocks, supply is expected to grow by 59% from 2021-22 to almost 5.56 Mt, and hit a peak not seen since the 1980s. Domestic use, specifically feed use, and exports are predicted to increase. Carry-out stocks are projected to rise sharply from 2021-22 to 1.15 Mt, a near-record high.

Canadian oat grain exports in August-October 2022 were pegged at 419 thousand tonnes (Kt), versus 509 Kt in August-October 2021 and 570 Kt for the previous five-year average in the same period. Oat product exports in August-October 2022 neared 162 Kt (with monthly export volume stabilizing at 54 Kt), on par with the level a year ago and up from 133 Kt for the previous five-year average. Almost 99% of Canadian oat grain exports and about 93% of oat product exports were destined for the US.

For the crop year to-date, oat prices in Alberta averaged just above $265/t, nearly $100/t under the level of a year ago. In Saskatchewan, oat prices averaged just under $265/t, down $140/t from last year’s level. Manitoba oat prices averaged just under $300/ton, down $170/t from a year ago. For the entire crop year, the CBOT oat price is predicted at around $365/t, down $200/t from the record high in 2021-22, due to an expected supply recovery in North America.

**Oats^{Oats note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Oats note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,554	1,385	1,593
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,314	1,176	1,402
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.48	2.39	3.73
Production (thousand tonnes)	4,576	2,808	5,226
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note b}	17	25	15
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	5,019	3,490	5,559
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note c}	2,972	2,302	2,850
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note d}	104	99	120
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,170	637	1,313
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note e}	1,390	870	1,559
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	657	318	1,150
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Oats note g}	301	565	365
Table 9 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 9 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 9 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 9 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 9 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 9 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 9 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US N^o.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2022-23, the Canadian rye production was estimated by STC at 520 Kt, 11% (50 Kt) above the September production estimate, largely reflecting a 42% (21 Kt) increase in Ontario, 45% (19 Kt) increase in Quebec and 12% (10 Kt) increase in Alberta, despite revised lower rye production in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. National yield and harvested area were also raised from the September estimates. For now, the final production estimate is 10% and 39%, respectively, above last year's historical low and the previous five-year average, and is also a record high. Production is distributed as follows: 39% in Manitoba, 18% in Alberta, 17% in Saskatchewan, and the majority of the rest in Ontario and Quebec.

Supply is projected at 631 Kt, up12% from 2021-22 and the highest since the 1990s. Demand is expected to exceed last year’s level due to increased exports. Carry-out stocks are projected at 165 Kt, up significantly from last year and the five-year average due to abundant supply.

Canadian rye exports in August-October 2022 were pegged at 85 Kt, versus about 75 Kt in August-October 2021 and the previous five-year average. Approximately 99% of Canadian rye exports were destined for the US.

For the crop year to-date, rye FOB farm prices on the Canadian Prairies averaged just below $275/t, nearly $35/t under the level a year ago. For the entire crop year, the Prairies average price is projected at $260/t, down $60/t from last year’s record high, mainly due to ample 2022-23 feed grain supplies on Canadian Prairies.

**Rye^{Rye note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Rye note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	237	246	237
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	153	147	152
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.19	3.22	3.42
Production (thousand tonnes)	488	473	520
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note b}	2	1	2
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	530	565	631
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note c}	153	151	170
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note d}	41	26	39
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	224	258	237
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note e}	287	304	296
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	91	109	165
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Rye note g}	225	320	260
Table 10 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 10 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 10 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 10 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 10 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 10 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 10 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

**Mixed Grains^{Mixed grains note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Mixed grains note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	168	133	138
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	97	65	72
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.41	2.53	2.82
Production (thousand tonnes)	233	164	203
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	233	164	203
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note c}	0	0	0
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note d}	0	0	0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	233	164	203
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note e}	233	164	203
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	0	0	0
Table 11 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 11 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 11 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 11 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 11 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 11 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Coarse Grains^{Total coarse grains note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Total coarse grains note f}
Area Seeded	6,459	6,534	6,286
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	5,781	5,780	5,705
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	5.12	4.22	5.34
Production (thousand tonnes)	29,601	24,387	30,475
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note b}	1,952	6,455	2,077
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	35,535	34,469	36,228
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note c}	8,840	6,793	8,440
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note d}	5,819	6,206	5,977
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	16,808	17,378	16,754
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note e}	23,068	24,000	23,173
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,627	3,676	4,615
Table 12 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 12 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 12 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 12 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 12 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 12 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2022-23, canola seeded area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares (Mha), down 4% from last year, with a predicted harvested area of 8.6 Mha. Yields are estimated at 2.11 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) compared to last year’s drought-reduced of 1.54 t/ha. Production is estimated at 18.2 Mt by Statistics Canada based on a survey of 27,200 farmers. The estimates, released December 2nd, show the province of Saskatchewan remaining the largest grower of canola at 9.5 Mt, followed by the provinces of Alberta and Manitoba at 5.6 Mt and 2.9 Mt, respectively.

The growing season across western Canada was comparatively normal compared to the prairie-wide drought of 2021-22, although yields were below earlier expectations in Alberta and Manitoba. Total supply is forecast to rise sharply from last year to 19.1 Mt, as tight carry-in constrains the increase in production.

Usage of Canadian canola is forecast to return to more historically normal levels: exports are up by about 63% to 8.6 million tonnes (Mt), while domestic crush rises to 9.5 Mt versus 8.6 Mt last year. The pace of exports to-date is 111% of last year based on the Canadian Grain Commission data, with shipments to China, Japan and Mexico accounting for 46%, 16% and 15%, respectively, of the total market share to the end of October. Oil content of Western Canadian canola is averaging 42.8% to-date, based on a survey of 1,755 samples. 94% of Canadian canola is grading Number 1.

Carry-out stocks are down to 0.80 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 4%. Canola prices are forecast to decline to $895/tonne (t) track Vancouver. If realized, this would be the second highest canola price on record.

The 2022-23 outlook remains sensitive to several factors: (i) strength of world demand for canola and rapeseed, (ii) the US Environmental Protection Agency’s ruling on inclusion rates for canola-rapeoil in biodiesel and renewable diesel, (iii) the pace of domestic crush, (iv) competition from Australian and European rapeseed, (v) the western United States (US) drought, (vi) supply chain disruptions resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

**Canola^{Canola note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Canola note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	8,410	9,016	8,659
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	8,325	8,949	8,596
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.34	1.54	2.11
Production (thousand tonnes)	19,485	13,757	18,174
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note b}	125	105	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	23,044	15,638	19,148
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note c}	10,589	5,268	8,600
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note d}	10,425	8,555	9,500
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	190	878	197
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note e}	10,680	9,496	9,748
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,776	875	800
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Canola note g}	730	1,075	895
Table 13 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to canola note a referrer Table 13 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to canola table note b referrer Table 13 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to canola table note c referrer Table 13 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to canola table note d referrer Table 13 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to canola table note e referrer Table 13 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to canola table note f referrer Table 13 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to canola table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2022-23, flaxseed area is estimated at 0.32 Mha, versus the five-year average of 0.39 Mha, with harvested area projected at 0.31 Mha. Yields are projected at 1.5 t/ha based on an estimated production of 0.47 Mt – 73% of which occurs in Saskatchewan. Total supply is forecast to increase by 36% to 0.57 Mt, on higher output and carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast to increase to 0.38 Mt on stable world usage. To the end of November, exports through licensed terminals are running at 48% of last year’s pace with most of the shipments destined for the US. Total domestic use is estimated at 93,700 tonnes on lower feed, waste and dockage, while carry-out stocks rise marginally to 100,000 t. Flaxseed prices are forecast to decline but remain historically strong at $745/t for 2022-23.

**Flaxseed (excluding solin) ^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	377	416	315
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	371	404	312
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.56	0.86	1.52
Production (thousand tonnes)	578	346	474
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note b}	26	12	10
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	667	417	569
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note c}	505	219	375
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note d}	N/A	N/A	N/A
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	85	99	75
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed note e}	103	113	94
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	59	85	100
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note g}	693	1,206	745
Table 14 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note a referrer Table 14 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note b referrer Table 14 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note c referrer Table 14 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note d referrer Table 14 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note e referrer Table 14 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note f referrer Table 14 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to canola table note g referrer N/A: not available Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Soybeans

For 2022-23, farmers planted 2.13 Mha to soybeans in Canada, versus 2.15 Mha last year, with harvested area estimated at 2.12 Mha. Production is 6.5 Mt, versus 6.3 Mt in 2021-22. The province of Ontario is the largest producer of soybeans in Canada at almost 4.0 Mt, followed by the provinces of Manitoba and Quebec, which grew 1.3 and 1.1 Mt of soybeans, respectively. Total supply is forecast to increase to 7.2 Mt, on higher production and carry-in combined with stable imports.

Exports are forecast to increase 3%, to 4.4 Mt, with shipments headed to a diverse group of countries. The export pace through Canada’s licensed grain handling facilities to the end of October is down 26%, with shipments mostly divided between China and the European Union. Domestic processing is forecast up slightly to 1.9 Mt compared to last year. Carry-out stocks are forecast up from last year at 0.35 Mt versus the five-year average of 0.45 Mt.

Soybean prices are forecast to rise to $690/t on support from higher US prices and a weaker Canadian dollar offsetting pressure from a large US soybean crop. A stable Canada-US dollar exchange rate is assumed for the duration of 2022-23.

For 2022-23, world oilseed production is forecast at 644 Mt by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), down by 2 Mt from last month but a rise of 40 Mt from last year. US soybean production is projected at 4.35 billion bushels (Bbu), down 3% from last year, creating a slight drop in American soybean supplies. US soybean exports are forecast at 2.05 Bbu while domestic crush increases to 2.25 Bbu. Ending stocks are predicted to fall to 0.22 Bbu, versus 0.27 Bbu for 2021-22 and the five-year average of 0.48 Bbu. The USDA projects the farm gate price of soybeans to remain unchanged from last month at US$14.00/bu, versus US$13.30/bu for 2021-22.

**Soybeans^{Soybeans note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Soybeans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,052	2,154	2,135
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,041	2,134	2,118
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.12	2.94	3.09
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,359	6,272	6,543
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note b}	438	560	400
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,417	7,125	7,241
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note c}	4,661	4,281	4,400
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note d}	1,636	1,858	1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	603	468	391
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note e}	2,462	2,547	2,491
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	294	298	350
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Soybeans note g}	605	678	690
Table 15 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 15 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 15 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 15 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 15 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 15 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Table 15 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham) Return to soybeans table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Oilseeds^{Total Oilseeds note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Total Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	10,839	11,585	11,108
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	10,738	11,486	11,026
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.46	1.77	2.28
Production (thousand tonnes)	26,421	20,375	25,191
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note b}	588	676	510
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	31,129	23,180	26,958
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note c}	15,755	9,768	13,375
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note d}	12,061	10,413	11,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	878	1,444	663
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note e}	13,245	12,155	12,333
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	2,129	1,257	1,250
Table 16 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 16 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 16 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 16 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 16 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 16 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2022-23, production increased 52% to 3.4 million tonnes (Mt) due to higher yields as harvested area was lower. Yields were 68% higher than the previous year due to more normal conditions. Yellow and green pea types are expected to account for about 2.85 Mt and 0.46 Mt, respectively, with the remainder spread across other varieties. Supply has increased by 35% to 3.8 Mt, due to reduced carry‑in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise to 2.5 Mt, due to the increase in supply. This is expected to result in higher imports by Bangladesh. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise sharply due to the increased supply. The average price is expected to fall by 22% to $460/t from 2021‑22, with lower dry pea prices for all types.

During November, the on‑farm price of yellow peas was unchanged in Saskatchewan but green types rose by $60/t. Prices have been steady to strong due to solid export demand and expectations for a smaller Indian winter pulse crop. For the crop year to‑date, green dry peas prices have been maintaining a premium of $15/t above yellow dry peas. Last year, green peas were at $60/t discount to yellow peas.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2022‑23 is estimated by the USDA to have fallen by 6% to over 0.9 million acres. This is largely due to a decrease in area in North Dakota and Montana. With estimates of below-average yields but higher than last year, US dry pea production is estimated by USDA to rise by 29% to 0.5 Mt. US dry peas compete, on a smaller scale, in Canadian export markets such as China and the Philippines.

**Dry Peas^{Dry peas note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Dry peas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,722	1,546	1,363
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,685	1,491	1,348
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.73	1.51	2.54
Production (thousand tonnes)	4,594	2,258	3,423
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note b}	81	29	28
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	4,909	2,845	3,836
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Dry peas note b}	3,582	1,909	2,500
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note c}	768	551	686
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	559	385	650
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	13%	16%	20%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry peas note d}	340	590	460
Table 17 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry peas table note a referrer Table 17 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry peas table note b referrer Table 17 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry peas table note c referrer Table 17 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry peas table note d referrer Table 17 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to dry peas table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2022-23, production increased by 43% to 2.3 Mt due largely to improved yields. Large green lentil production is estimated to be higher than last year at 0.3 Mt and red lentil production rose to about 1.77 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is estimated to have risen to 0.23 Mt.

Supply, however, is expected to be 24% higher than last year due to smaller carry‑in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase sharply to 2.3 Mt. India and Turkey are currently the top export markets. Imports are expected to be higher than the previous year with an above-average grade distribution. Carry‑out stocks are expected to rise sharply, due to the larger exportable supply. The overall average price is forecast to fall by 18% with lower prices for all types, with the exception of French lentil types.

During the month of November, the on‑farm price in Saskatchewan for No. 1 grade large green lentils fell by about $20/t when compared to last month, and the price of No. 1 red lentils decreased by over $10/t. The quality of the Canadian lentil crop is considered to be above average. There is a larger proportion in the supply of No. 1 and No.2 grade Canadian lentils for 2022‑23 when compared to last year. No. 1 large green lentil prices are forecast to maintain a premium of $300/t over No. 1 red lentil prices, versus $325/t in 2021‑22.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2022‑23 was forecast by the USDA at 0.7 million acres, down 5% from 2021‑22 due to lower area seeded in Montana. With estimates of higher yields, 2022‑23 US lentil production is estimated by the USDA at 0.22 Mt, up 47% from the 2021‑22 level.

**Lentils^{Lentils note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Lentils note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,713	1,742	1,749
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,705	1,716	1,715
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.68	0.94	1.34
Production (thousand tonnes)	2,868	1,606	2,301
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	110	51	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	3,187	2,096	2,600
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	2,326	1,600	2,300
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note c}	422	271	200
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	438	224	100
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	16%	12%	4%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Lentils note d}	645	970	800
Table 18 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to lentils table note a referrer Table 18 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to lentils table note b referrer Table 18 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to lentils table note c referrer Table 18 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to lentils table note d referrer Table 18 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to lentils table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry Beans

For 2022-23, production fell 19% to 313 thousand tonnes (Kt), consisting of 89 Kt of white pea bean types and 224 Kt of colored bean types. Production in Ontario fell, mostly due to lower area. In Manitoba, production rose due to higher yields for colored bean and white pea bean types. In Alberta, colored bean production fell due a decrease in area.

Supply is expected to fall as higher carry‑in stocks are more than offset by the smaller production. Exports are forecast to be similar to the previous year. The US and the EU are forecast to remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Mexico and Japan. Carry‑out stocks are expected to be lower. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be unchanged at a record level $1,210/t due to the similar North American supply.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is estimated by the USDA to have decreased by 10% to 1.25 million acres, largely due to lower area seeded in North Dakota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is estimated by the USDA to rise by 11%, to just over 1.1 Mt. US export markets continue to be Canada, EU and Mexico.

**Dry Beans^{Dry beans note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Dry beans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	185	177	120
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	183	171	117
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.68	2.26	2.67
Production (thousand tonnes)	490	386	313
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	63	75	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	578	571	553
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	396	327	327
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note c}	72	79	81
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	110	165	145
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	24%	41%	36%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry beans note d}	930	1,210	1,210
Table 19 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 19 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 19 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 19 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 19 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2022-23, production rose by 68% to 128 Kt due to higher harvested area and yields. Crop quality is average when compared to the previous year. Supply is forecast to fall by 16% as lower carry‑in stocks more than offset the higher production. Exports are forecast to be higher at 195 Kt, with the US, Pakistan and the EU as the main importers. Carry‑out stocks are expected to fall sharply to 65 Kt. The average price for all grades of chickpeas is forecast to rise by 5%, to a record $1,025/t, due to lower world supply.

US chickpea area seeded is estimated by the USDA at 0.36 million acres, down marginally from 2021‑22. With average yields, 2022‑23 US chickpea production is forecast by USDA at 0.18 Mt, up 37% from the previous year.

**Chickpeas ^{Chickpeas note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Chickpeas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	121	75	95
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	120	74	95
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.79	1.04	1.35
Production (thousand tonnes)	214	76	128
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	41	30	45
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	506	382	320
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	160	176	195
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note c}	70	59	60
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	275	147	65
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	119%	63%	26%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Chickpeas note d}	640	975	1,025
Table 20 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 20 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 20 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 20 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 20 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2022-23, production nearly tripled to 162 Kt, due to higher yields and area. Production of all types of mustard seed rose. Supply increased by 36% to 177 Kt. Exports are expected to be higher at 110 Kt. Due to increased supply, carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise sharply to 50 Kt. The US and the EU are expected to remain the main export markets for Canadian mustard seed. The average price is forecast to fall to $2,420/t, but remain historially high.

**Mustard Seed ^{Mustard Seed note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Mustard Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	104	117	225
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	101	110	219
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	0.99	0.55	0.74
Production (thousand tonnes)	100	61	162
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	6	9	9
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	191	130	177
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	111	106	110
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note c}	20	18	17
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	61	6	50
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	46%	5%	39%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Mustard Seed note d}	885	2,885	2,420
Table 21 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 21 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 21 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 21 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 21 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2022-23, production rose by 24% to 159 Kt with higher yields but lower area. Exports are expected to be lower than last year at 170 kt, due to the lower supply. The EU and Mexico are forecast to remain the main export markets. The average price is forecast to fall from the record 2021‑22 level, to $900/t despite tighter supply and smaller carry‑out stocks.

**Canary Seed ^{Canary Seed note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Canary Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	135	124	118
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	135	123	117
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.67	1.05	1.36
Production (thousand tonnes)	225	129	159
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	241	202	180
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	160	173	170
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note c}	8	8	5
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	73	21	5
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	44%	12%	3%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Canary Seed note d}	690	1,125	900
Table 22 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 22 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 22 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 22 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2022-23, production was marginally higher than the previous year at 84 Kt due to a fall in area but higher yields. Supply rose marginally with larger carry‑in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise marginally from last year to 45 Kt. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise marginally to 120 Kt. The US is expected to continue to be Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to be 3% lower than 2021‑22, to $870/t, due to lower oilseed type prices.

US sunflower seed production is estimated by the USDA at 1.3 Mt, up 53% from 2021‑22, largely due to increased production in North and South Dakota. It is estimated by AAFC that US production of oil type varieties and confectionery type varieties rose to 1.2 Mt and about 100 Kt, respectively. US supply is forecast by the USDA to be 33% higher at 1.6 Mt. US exports and domestic use is expected to increase. US sunflower seed carry‑out stocks are expected to rise and pressure North American prices.

For 2022‑23, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at a record 64.0 Mt. This is marginally higher than last year, due to higher output by Ukraine and Russia. World exports are expected to increase by 36% to a record 5.3 Mt and domestic use is expected to rise marginally to 52.6 Mt. World carry‑out stocks are expected to fall by 24% to 6.0 Mt, well above the five-year average.

**Sunflower Seed ^{Sunflower Seed note a}: December 16, 2022**
	2020-2021	2021-2022	2022-2023^{Sunflower Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	45	41	38
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	45	40	38
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.25	2.03	2.24
Production (thousand tonnes)	101	82	84
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	36	37	40
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	241	235	242
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	51	42	45
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note c}	74	75	77
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	116	118	120
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	93%	102%	98%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Sunflower Seed note d}	620	900	870
Table 23 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 23 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 23 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 23 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2021-2022 and seeded area for 2022-23 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.

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