Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2023-08-18

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (PDF version, 417 KB)

Historical Data

The 2022-2023 crop year closed on July 31 for most crops other than corn and soybeans, which closes at the end of August. Principal field crop production and supply increased significantly, supporting a strong rebound in exports. Carry-out stocks (ending-year inventories) for all principal field crops are forecast up marginally and are not considered burdensome. In general, prices for field crops are forecast to decline except for soybeans and chickpeas which are projected to increase.

For 2023-2024, the most significant agricultural risk is climate-related as severe drought continues across Western Canada, with the most impact felt in Southern Alberta and Western Saskatchewan (see the Canadian Drought Monitor). Significant uncertainty remains at this time regarding estimates of crop yield and production. Harvest in Western Canada is now underway and is expected to progress rapidly for most crops. Total field crop production and supply are forecast to decrease as higher carry-in stocks (beginning-year inventories) are offset by a decline in output. Exports are forecast to decrease on lower supplies but are expected to remain strong on firm world demand. In general, prices are projected to decrease as higher global supplies pressure prices lower, with underlying support provided by continued strong world demand.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on September 25, 2023. STC is scheduled to publish model-based estimates of principal field crops on August 29, 2023, followed by on-farm stocks of principal field crops as of July 31, 2023, on September 8, 2023.

Total Grains And Oilseeds^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Total Grains And Oilseeds note f	2023-2024Total Grains And Oilseeds note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	27,831	27,669	28,267
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	26,602	26,814	27,325
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.55	3.34	3.18
Production (thousand tonnes)	67,818	89,489	86,980
Imports (thousand tonnes)Total Grains And Oilseeds note b	7,224	3,392	3,502
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	86,754	101,481	99,915
Exports (thousand tonnes)Total Grains And Oilseeds note c	31,669	47,375	45,845
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Total Grains And Oilseeds note e	46,484	44,672	44,675
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	8,601	9,434	9,395
Table 1 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Tableau 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops e referrer Table 1 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-23 and seeded area for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Total Pulses and Special Crops^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Total Pulses and Special Crops note f	2023-2024Total Pulses and Special Crops note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	3,798	3,707	3,370
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	3,698	3,649	3,304
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.23	1.80	1.62
Production (thousand tonnes)	4,555	6,570	5,355
Imports (thousand tonnes)Total Pulses and Special Crops note b	227	286	267
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	6,407	7,891	6,510
Exports (thousand tonnes)Total Pulses and Special Crops note b	4,297	5,800	4,585
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Total Pulses and Special Crops note c	1,074	1,203	1,200
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,035	888	725
Table 2 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 2 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 2 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 2 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-23 and seeded area for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

All Principal Field Crops^{All Principal Field Crops note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023All Principal Field Crops note f	2023-2024All Principal Field Crops note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	31,629	31,376	31,637
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	30,300	30,462	30,629
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.39	3.15	3.01
Production (thousand tonnes)	72,373	96,059	92,335
Imports (thousand tonnes)All Principal Field Crops note b	7,451	3,678	3,769
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	93,160	109,373	106,425
Exports (thousand tonnes)All Principal Field Crops note b	35,966	53,175	50,430
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)All Principal Field Crops note c	47,558	45,875	45,875
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	9,636	10,322	10,120
Table 3 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 3 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 3 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 3 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-23 and seeded area for 2023-24 which are STC Return to All Principal Field Crops table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2022-23, Canadian durum production is reported at 5.4 million tonnes (Mt) and total supply at 6.0 Mt. Canadian durum exports are forecast to rise to over 5.1 Mt due to strong world demand which continued into June and July. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 58% from 2021-22 to 0.24 Mt, 77% lower than the past five-year average of 1.1 Mt. Feed, waste and dockage has dropped 17% from last month’s report. In Canada, feed, waste and dockage, which also includes a residual error, is used to balance the overall supply and demand. At 28% lower than average levels, there is speculation that the 2022 harvest was underestimated.

The official export data for 2022-23 will be released by Statistics Canada (STC) on September 6, followed by carry-out stocks estimates on September 8.

The average Saskatchewan (SK) spot price for Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD), no.1, 13% protein was $445/tonne in 2022-23.

For 2023-24, seeded area for durum is reported at 2.4 million hectares, according to STC. Persistent heat and dry conditions across the Prairies, however, are reducing crop quality ratings, yield and production potential. In Saskatchewan, as of July 24, the percentage of the durum crop rated in “excellent” condition stands at only 1% and that rated in “good” condition at 15%, down from 23% two weeks prior, while Alberta’s durum crop rated good to excellent dropped from 34% to 30%.

The Canadian durum yield for 2023 is pegged at 2.05 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), for a total production of 4.9 Mt, down 10% from 2022-23, and 5% below the five-year average. Total supply drops to 5.2 Mt constrained by tight carry-in stocks.

As a result of lower supply, exports are reduced to 4.1 Mt, with an expected decrease in exports to price sensitive markets. With domestic use in Canada relatively steady around 0.8 Mt, closing stocks are pegged at 0.4 Mt, up from the tight carry-over this year, but 52% below average.

Prospects for the United States durum crop are also poor and are deteriorating as the drought persists in the main durum producing states. For 2023-2024, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) projects US durum production to fall 16% from 2022 to 1.5 Mt.

Globally, world durum production is forecast to drop by 1.3 Mt from 2022-23 to 31.54 Mt, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Supply is expected to fall by 2.3 Mt to 37.24 Mt because of low carry-in stocks. Use is expected to drop marginally, from 33.9 Mt to 33.8 Mt, while carry-out stocks are expected to fall by 2.2 Mt to 3.49 Mt, the lowest in over 30 years.

The average 2023-24 spot price for SK CWAD 1, 13% is raised to $450/tonne, with underlying support from concerns over the 2023 harvest.

Durum ^{Durum note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Durum note f	2023-2024Durum note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,321	2,431	2,442
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,231	2,399	2,393
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.36	2.27	2.05
Production (thousand tonnes)	3,032	5,443	4,906
Imports (thousand tonnes)Durum note b	8	25	25
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	3,853	6,038	5,170
Exports (thousand tonnes)Durum note c	2,716	5,120	4,000
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) Durum note d	210	190	200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	125	285	357
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Durum note e	568	678	770
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	569	240	400
Average Price ($/tonne) Durum note g	631	445	450
Tableau 4 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Durum table note a referrer Tableau 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Durum table note b referrer Tableau 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Durum table note c referrer Tableau 4 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Durum table note d referrer Tableau 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Durum table note e referrer Tableau 4 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Durum note f referrer Tableau 4 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Durum note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2022-23, Canadian wheat production is reported at 28.4 Mt and supply at 31.6 Mt. Exports were raised to 20 Mt on account of strong exports continuing through June and July 2023, in particular to China. They are up 62% compared to the previous year and 12% above average. Domestic use is projected at 8.6 Mt and carry-out stocks to fall to 3.0 Mt, down 3% year-over-year (y/y).

The average spot price for SK Canadian Wheat - Red Spring (CWRS) no.1, 13.5% protein was $401/tonne in 2022-23.

For 2023-24, Canadian production of wheat, including spring and winter wheat, is forecast to remain relatively steady at 28.3 Mt despite reductions in yields due to the 8% increase in total seeded area. Downward pressure to yields is still likely as the harvest progresses and the extent of damage from dry conditions in the Southern Prairies is better known. In Saskatchewan, as of July 25, the percentage of spring wheat rated as “excellent” is 2% and that in “good” condition 33%, down from 45% two weeks prior. In Alberta, the percentage of the spring crop rated “good to excellent” dropped only slightly from 46% to 45%. Manitoba estimates the bulk of the spring wheat crop in the “fair to good” range. The first yield-based model estimate will be available from STC on August 29.

Canadian exports remain pegged at 19.8 Mt, but stocks were reduced 29% to 3.3 Mt due to the lower supply.

According to the USDA-WASDE, world all wheat production is forecast at 793.4 Mt, down 3.3 Mt compared to last month’s report. Despite the drop, global output is still 3.4 Mt more than in 2022-23. Total supply is forecast to reach 1,061.7 Mt and use to reach 796.1 Mt. Exports were reduced to 209.39 Mt, down 9.2 Mt y/y while carry-out stocks are forecast at 796.07 Mt, up 1.8 Mt compared to 2022-23, but still relatively tight and the lowest since 2015-16.

US all wheat production is forecast to rise by 2.3 Mt from 2022-23 to 47.2 Mt, according to the USDA; supply is projected to fall by 0.7 Mt to 66.5 Mt due to low carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast at 19.1 Mt, down 1.6 Mt compared to 2022-23 levels. With domestic use relatively steady at 30.7 Mt, carry-out stocks are forecast at 16.8 Mt, 1.0 Mt more than in 2022-23.

The average 2023-2024 spot price for SK CWRS 1, 13.5% remains unchanged at $370/tonne.

Wheat Except Durum ^{Wheat except Durum note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Wheat except durum note f	2023-2024Wheat except durum note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	7,170	7,844	8,495
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	6,968	7,683	8,325
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.78	3.69	3.40
Production (thousand tonnes)	19,390	28,380	28,304
Imports (thousand tonnes) Wheat except Durum note b	153	100	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	24,683	31,574	31,403
Exports (thousand tonnes)Wheat except Durum note c	12,351	20,000	19,800
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)Wheat except Durum note d	3,250	3,200	3,200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	5,183	4,524	4,278
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) Wheat except Durum note e	9,238	8,574	8,303
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,093	3,000	3,300
Average Price ($/tonne) Wheat except Durum note g	447	401	370
Table 5 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 5 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 5 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 5 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 5 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 5 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 5 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

All Wheat^{All wheat note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023All wheat note f	2023-2024All wheat note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	9,492	10,274	10,936
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	9,199	10,082	10,718
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.44	3.35	3.10
Production (thousand tonnes)	22,422	33,824	33,209
Imports (thousand tonnes) All wheat note b	161	125	125
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	28,536	37,611	36,574
Exports (thousand tonnes)All wheat note c	15,067	25,120	23,800
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)All wheat note d	3,460	3,390	3,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	5,309	4,809	4,635
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) All wheat note e	9,807	9,252	9,074
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,663	3,239	3,700
Table 6 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 6 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 6 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 6 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 6 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 6 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2022-23, total domestic use, of which over 90% is for animal feed, is forecast at 6.0 million tonnes (Mt), up 28% year-over-year (y/y) due to the recovery in supply after the drought in 2021. Total exports, including grain exports and product exports (grain equivalent), are projected at 3.83 Mt, up sharply from the previous year’s low and the previous five- and ten-year averages, also the second highest since 2008-09. This is primarily due to the recovery in domestic supply and strong exports to China. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.70 Mt, rising sharply from last year’s record low but far below normal levels.

The Lethbridge feed barley price for 2022-23 is finalized at $417/tonne (t).

For 2023-24, Canadian producers seeded 2.96 million hectares (Mha) of barley, according to Statistic Canada’s (STC) June seeded area survey. This level is 4% higher than 2022-23, but slightly lower than the previous five-year average. Approximately 52% of the barley area is in Alberta, 38% in Saskatchewan, 6% in Manitoba and 4% in other provinces.

Canadian barley yield for 2023-24 is predicted to be lower than average due to continued dry conditions across the Canadian Prairies, particularly in Southern Alberta and South-Western Saskatchewan. Production is projected at 9.23 Mt, down 8% from last year and down 4% from the previous five-year average, as the increase in seeded area is expected to be offset by a decline in yield.

Despite an expected increase in carry-in stocks, total supply is projected at nearly 10.0 Mt, down 6% from 2022-23 and the average. Total demand is predicted to decrease y/y, linked to lower feed use and exports, and a smaller supply. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.7 Mt, unchanged y/y and far below average.

The 2023-24 Lethbridge average price is projected at $350/t, lower than the historical highs seen in the previous two years, primarily under pressure from lower 2023-24 US corn prices.

For 2023-24 US barley, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised the yield potential considerably in its August supply and demand forecast update. For now, the US barley yield for 2023-24 is projected to be higher than 2022-23 and the average. This, along with a markedly expanded seeded area, will lead to a production of 180 million bushels (3.92 Mt), up 3% from 2022-23 and 14% above average. Farm price is projected at US$6.75/bushel (US$310/t), notably up from the July projection and the second highest on record, despite being down from 2022-23.

The global barley production forecast for 2023-24 has been revised lower, reflecting significant downward revisions to production forecasts for Canada, the EU, and Russia. For now, world barley production is projected at 143 Mt, down 6% from 2022-23. Supply will be the lowest in five years. Ending stocks will be at a historical low.

Barley^{Barley note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Barley note f	2023-2024Barley note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	3,368	2,851	2,963
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	3,011	2,636	2,696
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.32	3.79	3.42
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,984	9,987	9,225
Imports (thousand tonnes)Barley note b	228	30	50
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,923	10,559	9,975
Exports (thousand tonnes)Barley note c	2,673	3,830	3,330
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) Barley note d	284	218	318
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	4,178	5,557	5,376
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Barley note e	4,707	6,029	5,945
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	543	700	700
Average Price ($/tonne) Barley note g	432	417	350
Table 7 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 7 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 7 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 7 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table7 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 7 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 7 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2022-23, total domestic use is predicted at 15.4 Mt, down sharply from last year, primarily on lower feed use on the Canadian Prairies. Exports are forecast at 2.7 Mt, a substantial increase from last year and the previous five-year average, also a record high, primarily due to ample domestic supply and strong exports to some European countries, such as Ireland, Spain, and the US. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.75 Mt, down sharply from last year’s record high and average, also the lowest since 2014-15.

The Chatham corn price over the past month fell to an average of $255/t, pushing the crop year to-date down to around $305/t. For the entire crop year, the Chatham corn price is projected at $300/t, down nearly $10/t from last year’s record high.

For 2023-24, Canadian producers seeded 1.55 Mha of corn, 6% higher than 2022-23. Approximately 59% of the corn acreage was seeded in Ontario, 23% in Quebec, 14% in Manitoba and 3% in other provinces.

Canadian corn yield for 2023-24 is predicted to be higher than average due to generally good crop conditions reported for the three major corn producing provinces. Production is projected at 15.3 Mt, up 5% from 2022-23 and 9% from the previous five-year average, supported by expanded seeded area and improved yield potential.

Due to a sharp decrease in carry-in stocks offsetting the expected increase in production and imports, total supply for 2023-24 is projected at 19.8 Mt, down slightly y/y but still well above average. Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 2% y/y, mainly due to an increase in feed use. Exports are projected to decline on prospects for a larger global corn crop but remain above average. Carry-out stocks are projected at 2.2 Mt, up from 2022-23’s low levels but still below average.

The 2023-24 Chatham average price is projected to fall y/y to $250/t, due to the anticipated lower 2023-24 US corn price.

For 2023-24 US corn, the USDA has lowered the yield potential to 175.1 bushel/acre (10.99 t/ha), which is still 1% above 2022-23 and average. Production will reach over 15 billion bushels (384 Mt), the second largest corn crop on record for this country, thanks to the expansion of the planted area and the good yield potential, although the latter has been revised downwards compared to the last forecast. Ending stock projection is lower from last month but is well above 2022-23 and average, also the third largest. The average farm price is projected at US$4.90/bushel (US$193/t), up from the July projection of US$4.80/bu (US$189/t) but down sharply from the $6.60/bu ($260/t) predicted for 2022-23 and the $6.00/bu ($236/t) for 2021-22. However, it remains above the levels from 2013-14 to 2020-21.

The global corn production forecast for 2023-24 has been revised down by 11 Mt, reflecting significant downward revisions to production forecasts for China, the EU, Russia, and the US. For now, world corn production is projected at 1,214 Mt, up about 5% from 2022-23 and average, also the second highest on record. Although demand is predicted to increase y/y to an all-time high, ending stocks are predicted to rise y/y to a five-year high.

Corn^{Corn note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Corn note f	2023-2024Corn note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,488	1,466	1,548
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,462	1,444	1,512
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	10.00	10.07	10.12
Production (thousand tonnes)	14,611	14,539	15,300
Imports (thousand tonnes) Corn note b	6,141	2,600	2,750
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	22,921	19,884	19,800
Exports (thousand tonnes)Corn note c	1,746	2,700	1,850
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)Corn note d	5,797	5,800	5,500
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	12,617	9,619	10,234
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Corn note e	18,430	15,434	15,750
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	2,746	1,750	2,200
Average Price ($/tonne)Corn note g	312	300	250
Table 8 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 8 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 8 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 8 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 8 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 8 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 8 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2022-23, total domestic use is forecast at 1.65 Mt, up sharply from 2021-22 and well above average due to strong feed use. Feed use represents about 90% of total domestic use. Total exports are projected at 2.68 Mt, up significantly y/y and above average. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.25 Mt, up sharply from the previous year’s record low, and the second highest on record.

The final CBOT oat price for 2022-23 is pegged at $346/t, down over $200/t from the record high in 2021-22. The significant drop in oat prices reflects abundant oat supplies in North America, as well as lower prices for other row crops.

For 2023-24, Canadian producers seeded 1.03 Mha of oats, sharply lower than last year and average, also the lowest on record. Approximately 41% of the oat area was planted in Saskatchewan, 28% in Alberta, 19% in Manitoba and 13% in other provinces.

Canadian oat yield for 2023-24 is predicted to be noticeably lower than that in 2022-23 and also below average due to continued dry conditions across the Canadian Prairies, particularly in Southern Alberta and South-Western Saskatchewan. Owing to a decrease in seeded area and lower yield potential, production is projected at 2.71 Mt, down sharply from 2022-23 and below the level in 2021-22 when an unprecedented drought was experienced in Western Canada that significantly lowered production.

Total supply for 2023-24 is projected at 3.98 Mt, down considerably from 2022-23 and average. Total demand, typically for feed, is expected to decline y/y following lower supply. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.45 Mt, down sharply y/y and significantly below average.

The CBOT oat price for 2023-24 is projected at CAN$370/t, up significantly y/y due to the expected tight North American oat supplies, despite lower row crop prices predicted for 2023-24.

For 2023-24 US oat crop, the USDA has lowered yield potential slightly. For now, the US oat yield for 2023-24 is projected to be about 5% below 2022-23. This, along with a smaller seeded area, will lead to a production of 49 million bushels (0.72 Mt), significantly below 2022-23 and average levels. Farm price is projected at US$3.30/bushel (US$227/t), unchanged from the July projection and down notably from 2022-23 and 2021-22, but still significantly higher than those in the years from 2015-16 to 2020-21.

The global oat production forecast for 2023-24 has been revised lower, reflecting significant downward revisions to production forecasts for Canada, EU, and Russia. For now, world oat production is projected at 21 Mt, well below 2022-23 and average levels. Ending stocks are expected to fall sharply y/y and be near a historical low.

Oats^{Oats note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Oats note f	2023-2024Oats note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,502	1,593	1,027
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,214	1,402	848
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.39	3.73	3.20
Production (thousand tonnes)	2,899	5,226	2,712
Imports (thousand tonnes)Oats note b	25	25	15
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	3,580	5,584	3,977
Exports (thousand tonnes)Oats note c	2,307	2,680	2,550
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)Oats note d	98	100	100
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	709	1,469	776
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Oats note e	941	1,654	977
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	333	1,250	450
Average Price ($/tonne)Oats note g	565	346	370
Table 9 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 9 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 9 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 9 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 9 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 9 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 9 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US No.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2022-23, domestic use, primarily for animal feed, and exports are expected to increase y/y, supported by ample supply. Carry-out stocks are projected at 120 thousand tonnes (Kt), up significantly from last year and the five-year average, due to abundant supply.

The average farm price of rye on the Canadian Prairies for the crop year sits at $287/t, down $33/t from last year’s record high, under pressure from ample supplies and lower row crop prices.

For 2023-24, Canadian fall rye area, which represents more than 95% of all rye planted in Canada, is reported by STC at 185 thousand hectares (Kha), down 21% y/y but remains relatively high when compared to the last decade. Fall rye area remaining after winterkill was reported at 131 Kha, higher than expected and above average.

Canadian rye yield for 2023-24 is predicted to be lower y/y, but near average. Production is projected at 380 Kt, down 27% y/y. Due to the smaller production partly offset by larger carry-in stocks, total supply in 2023-24 is projected at 502 Kt, down 17% y/y but still well above average. Total demand is expected to decline y/y following smaller supply. Carry-out stocks are projected at 80 Kt, down sharply y/y, but still a comfortable level.

The 2023-24 rye average price on the Canadian Prairies is projected at CAN$240/t, down y/y, due to lower row crop prices predicted for 2023-24.

The global rye production forecast is pegged by the USDA at 12 Mt, 4% below the July forecast and 5% below 2022-23 and average. US rye production is estimated to reach an all-time high. Although global demand is predicted to decline y/y, world ending stocks are expected to continue to fall y/y to a record low, however, US rye ending stocks will remain ample.

Rye^{Rye note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Rye note f	2023-2024Rye note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	194	237	188
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	116	152	118
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.22	3.42	3.22
Production (thousand tonnes)	372	520	380
Imports (thousand tonnes)Rye note b	1	2	2
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	464	606	502
Exports (thousand tonnes)Rye note c	151	195	165
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)Rye note d	25	39	39
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	183	235	200
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Rye note e	229	290	256
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	84	120	80
Average Price ($/tonne)Rye note g	320	287	240
Table 10 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 10 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 10 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 10 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 10 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 10 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 10 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Mixed Grains^{Mixed grains note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Mixed grains note f	2023-2024Mixed grains note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	203	138	145
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	116	72	70
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.88	2.82	2.54
Production (thousand tonnes)	218	203	178
Imports (thousand tonnes)Mixed grains note b	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	218	203	178
Exports (thousand tonnes)Mixed grains note c	0	0	0
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)Mixed grains note d	0	0	0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	218	203	178
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Mixed grains note e	218	203	178
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	0	0	0
Table 11 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 11 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 11 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 11 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 11 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 11 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Total Coarse Grains^{Total coarse grains note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Total coarse grains note f	2023-2024Total coarse grains note f
Area Seeded	6,754	6,286	5,869
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	5,917	5,705	5,244
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	4.24	5.34	5.30
Production (thousand tonnes)	25,083	30,475	27,795
Imports (thousand tonnes)Total coarse grains note b	6,395	2,657	2,817
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	35,105	36,836	34,432
Exports (thousand tonnes)Total coarse grains note c	6,876	9,405	7,895
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)Total coarse grains note d	6,205	6,157	5,957
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	17,903	17,082	16,765
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Total coarse grains note e	24,524	23,611	23,107
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,705	3,820	3,430
Table 12 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 12 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 12 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 12 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 12 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 12 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2022-23, total carry-out is estimated at 1.75 million tonnes (Mt) based on Canadian Grain Commission commercial stocks data and estimated farm stocks of 0.80 Mt based on a weekly pre-harvest delivery pace of about 0.3 Mt per week. Total disappearance is estimated at 17.4 Mt on a crush of 9.8 Mt and exports of 8.2 Mt. Total supplies are estimated at 19.1 Mt on production of 18.2 Mt, carry-in of 0.9 Mt, and imports of 0.1 Mt.

The imbalance between canola supplies and disappearance is reflected in a negative feed, waste, dockage (FWD) and error estimate of 0.66 Mt. The negative FWD reflects an underestimation of carry-in and/or production for the crop year, these estimates are expected to be revised in an upcoming release of Statistics Canada’s (STC) Supply and Disposition report.

The simple average price, No.1 track Vancouver, for canola was $857/tonne (t) versus $1075/t for 2021-22 and the five-year average of $727/t.

For 2023-24, canola seeded area is estimated up 3% from last year to 8.9 million hectares (Mha) implying a harvested area of 8.8 Mha. Trend yields of 2.13 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) are assumed based on variable growing conditions across Western Canada, resulting in a production of 18.8 Mt.

Canola blooming is largely complete and plants are in the pod-filling stage. In Manitoba, crop conditions range from fair to mostly good while in Saskatchewan soil moisture conditions remain dry across the southern part of the province, improving slightly from short to somewhat adequate across the northern cropping regions. Harvesting is in the early stages. Alberta canola conditions were rated 42% good to excellent for the end of July with anticipated yields rated 85% of the five and ten year average.

Total supplies of canola are forecast to increase by 8% year-on-year on higher carry-in and a slight increase in production. Demand is forecast to remain stable with domestic crush and exports forecast at 9.7 Mt and 9.0 Mt, respectively, on strong world demand for vegetable oils and protein meals. The Canadian canola crush sector is expanding rapidly with the possibility of new plants becoming operational during the winter or spring of 2024, resulting in a 0.5 Mt to 1.0 Mt rise in domestic processing at the expense of exports.

Normal feed, waste and dockage is assumed for the upcoming crop year while carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 1.70 Mt. The simple average price for canola, No. 1, track Vancouver, is forecast at $790/t versus the five-year average of $725/t.

Factors to watch are: (i) North American harvest conditions, (ii) Canadian canola yields, (iii) size of the US soybean crop, (iv) US soy oil and soymeal prices and (v) strength of world demand, including China.

Canola^{Canola note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Canola note f	2023-2024Canola note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	9,016	8,659	8,936
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	8,949	8,596	8,844
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.54	2.11	2.13
Production (thousand tonnes)	13,752	18,174	18,800
Imports (thousand tonnes)Canola note b	105	100	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	15,633	19,138	20,650
Exports (thousand tonnes)Canola note c	5,250	8,200	9,000
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)Canola note d	8,555	9,800	9,700
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	900	-663	199
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Canola note e	9,518	9,188	9,950
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	865	1,750	1,700
Average Price ($/tonne)Canola note g	1,075	857	790
Table 13 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to canola note a referrer Table 13 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to canola table note b referrer Table 13 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to canola table note c referrer Table 13 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to canola table note d referrer Table 13 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to canola table note e referrer Table 13 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to canola table note f referrer Table 13 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Vancouver) Return to canola table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2022-23, carry-out stocks are estimated at 0.28 Mt, versus 82,000 t last year and the five-year average of 78,000 t. Canadian supplies of flaxseed are estimated at 0.57 Mt, up 38% from last year. Exports are estimated at 0.15 Mt, a drop of 32% from last year, on reduced Asian buying. Exports through licensed handling facilities are sharply lower than last year with most shipments headed to the US. Total domestic use is forecast at 0.14 Mt, versus 0.11 Mt for 2021-22, on higher feed, waste and dockage. Flaxseed prices are estimated at $635/t versus $1,206/t for 2021-22.

For 2023-24, farmers seeded a modern-day record low 0.25 Mha, implying a harvested area of 0.24 Mha. Trend yields of 1.35 t/ha are assumed, supporting a production of 0.33 Mt versus 0.47 Mt for 2022-23 and the five-year average of 0.47 Mt. Total supplies of flaxseed are forecast at 0.61 Mt, as lower output is offset by sharply higher carry-in stocks.

Total domestic use is forecast to decline by 32% on a sharp drop in feed, waste and dockage, and stable other usage. Exports are forecast to increase to 0.35 Mt on strengthening world demand and lower prices. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 0.17 Mt. The simple average price for flaxseed No.1, in-store, Saskatoon cash is forecast at $565/t versus the five-year average of $710/t.

Flaxseed (excluding solin) ^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Flaxseed (excluding solin) note f	2023-2024Flaxseed (excluding solin) note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	416	315	247
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	404	312	242
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	0.83	1.52	1.35
Production (thousand tonnes)	337	473	325
Imports (thousand tonnes)Flaxseed (excluding solin) note b	12	10	10
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	408	565	610
Exports (thousand tonnes)Flaxseed (excluding solin) note c	219	150	350
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)Flaxseed (excluding solin) note d	N/A	N/A	N/A
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	93	125	76
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Flaxseed note e	107	140	95
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	82	275	165
Average Price ($/tonne)Flaxseed (excluding solin) note g	1,206	635	565
Table 14 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note a referrer Table 14 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note b referrer Table 14 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note c referrer Table 14 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note d referrer Table 14 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note e referrer Table 14 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note f referrer Table 14 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to canola table note g referrer N/A: not available Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Soybeans

For 2022-23, Canadian supplies of soybeans increased to 7.3 Mt on higher production and carry-in combined with stable imports. Production was 6.5 Mt, versus 6.2 Mt in 2021-22.

Exports are estimated up by 6%, to 4.5 Mt, with shipments headed to a diverse group of countries. Year-on-year shipments out of the country through licensed handling facilities are up 9%. Domestic processing is forecast steady to slightly higher at 1.9 Mt from the 1.86 Mt processed last year. Carry-out stocks are forecast up from last year at 0.35 Mt versus the five-year average of 0.45 Mt.

Canadian soybean prices are forecast to rise to $701/t as a weaker Canadian dollar offsets the large US and Brazilian crops.

For 2023-24, nearly 2.28 Mha were planted to soybeans, inferring a harvested area of slightly under 2.28 Mha. Trend yields of 3.0 t/ha are predicted, assuming normal growing conditions. Soybean production is forecast at 6.9 Mt, up 0.31 Mt from last year and the five-year average. Total supplies of soybeans rise 4% to 7.70 Mt.

Total domestic use is forecast to fall slightly on a steady crush of 1.9 Mt and on lower feed, waste and dockage. Exports are up 0.3 Mt from 2022-23, to 4.8 Mt, and are 0.17 Mt above the five-year average.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.40 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 6%.The Canadian simple average price for soybeans, track Chatham, is forecast to fall by $31/t from last year to $670/t remaining above the five-year average of $562/t.

For 2023-24, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) tightened its outlook for world production by reducing total oilseed output by 3.6 Mt while adjusting soybean production down by 2.5 Mt. The US soybean production forecast declined from last month to 4.20 billion bushels (Bbu) (114.4 Mt) versus 4.28 Bbu (116.5 Mt) for 2022-23, on a decline in yields to 50.9 bu/ac (3.37 t/ha) from 52.0 bu/ac. (3.50 t/ha). Supplies are down 79 million bushels (Mbu) (2.2 Mt) from last month as the drop in output is moderated by slightly higher beginning stocks.

US soybean crush and exports are forecast at 2.30 Bbu (62.6 Mt) and 1.83 Bbu (49.8 Mt), respectively. Ending stocks fall to 0.25 Bbu (6.8 Mt) versus 0.26 Bbu (7.1 Mt) last year. The USDA projects the farm-gate price for soybeans at US$12.70/bu (US$466.65/t), versus US$14.20/bu (US$521.76/t) in 2022-23 and the five-year average of US$11.07/bu (US$406.75/t).

Soybeans^{Soybeans note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Soybeans note f	2023-2024Soybeans note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,154	2,135	2,279
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,134	2,118	2,278
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.92	3.09	3.01
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,224	6,543	6,850
Imports (thousand tonnes) Soybeans note b	552	500	450
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,072	7,330	7,650
Exports (thousand tonnes)Soybeans note c	4,256	4,500	4,800
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)Soybeans note d	1,858	1,900	1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	450	380	350
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) Soybeans note e	2,529	2,480	2,450
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	287	350	400
Average Price ($/tonne) Soybeans note g	678	701	670
Table 15 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 15 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 15 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 15 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 15 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 15 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Table 15 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham) Return to soybeans table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Total Oilseeds^{Total Oilseeds note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Total Oilseeds note f	2023-2024Total Oilseeds note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	11,585	11,108	11,461
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	11,486	11,026	11,363
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.77	2.28	2.29
Production (thousand tonnes)	20,313	25,190	25,975
Imports (thousand tonnes)Total Oilseeds note b	669	610	560
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	23,113	27,034	28,910
Exports (thousand tonnes)Total Oilseeds note c	9,726	12,850	14,150
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)Total Oilseeds note d	10,413	11,700	11,600
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,442	-157	625
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Total Oilseeds note e	12,153	11,809	12,495
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,234	2,375	2,265
Table 16 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 16 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 16 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 16 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 16 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 16 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-23 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2022-23, exports are estimated at 2.65 million tonnes (Mt), sharply higher than the 2021-22 level, with higher exports to China and the return of Bangladesh as a Canadian dry pea destination. This, combined with higher domestic use, is expected to result in a carry-out stocks estimate of 0.45 Mt, up from the previous year, but similar to the five-year average. For all dry pea types, the crop year average price was sharply lower than 2021-22. With higher carry-out stocks, the average dry pea price was 25% lower than the record prices set in 2021-22.

For 2023-24, Canadian dry pea production in Canada is forecast to fall sharply from 2022-23, to 2.7 Mt. This is largely due to dry crop conditions across Western Canada that may raise abandonment and lower yields. Saskatchewan is estimated to account for 49% of the dry pea production, with 43% in Alberta, and the remainder across Canada. Supply is forecast to fall 16% to 3.2 Mt, due to the decrease in production. Exports are forecast to fall to 2.2 Mt, with China, Bangladesh and the US expected to be Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease sharply. The average price is expected to be lower than 2022-23.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2023-24 is forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to rise by 9% from 2022-23, to 1.0 million acres. This is largely due to an expected rise in area in North Dakota and Montana. Despite lower yields and higher abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to rise to 0.75 Mt. The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to markets in China, Canada, and Yemen. It is expected the US will continue to try to increase its market share in these markets in 2023-24.

Dry Peas^{Dry peas note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Dry peas note f	2023-2024Dry peas note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,560	1,363	1,230
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,505	1,348	1,200
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.49	2.54	2.25
Production (thousand tonnes)	2,244	3,423	2,700
Imports (thousand tonnes)Dry peas note b	29	35	30
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	2,831	3,797	3,180
Exports (thousand tonnes) Dry peas note b	1,911	2,650	2,200
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Dry peas note c	580	697	705
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	339	450	275
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	14%	13%	9%
Average Price ($/tonne)Dry peas note d	590	440	400
Table 17 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry peas table note a referrer Table 17 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry peas table note b referrer Table 17 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry peas table note c referrer Table 17 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry peas table note d referrer Table 17 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-23 which are STC Return to dry peas table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2022-23, lentil exports rose sharply to 2.3 Mt, 41% higher than the previous year. Exports of red lentils were 1.6 Mt while 0.7 Mt were green lentils. The main markets were India, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Total domestic use was lower than 2021-22 at 0.25 Mt. Carry-out stocks fell to 0.1 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was 15% lower than the record set in 2021-22. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained an average crop year premium of $400/tonne (t) over No.1 red lentil prices.

For 2023-24, lentil production is forecast to fall by 22% to 1.8 Mt. Higher abandonment and lower yields are expected due to dry crop conditions in Western Canada. Total green and red lentil area fell. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 87% of the lentil production, with the remainder in Alberta and Manitoba. Supply is also forecast to decrease sharply due to the lower yields and smaller carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall to 1.6 Mt, with the decrease in exportable supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise compared to the previous year. The average price is forecast to rise marginally from 2022-23 with the expectations of similar world supply.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2023-24 is forecast by the USDA to fall by 19% to 0.53 million acres, due to lower area seeded in Montana. Assuming higher yields and lower abandonment, 2023-24 US lentil production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 0.25 Mt, up 2% from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

Lentils^{Lentils note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Lentils note f	2023-2024Lentils note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,700	1,749	1,485
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,675	1,715	1,460
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	0.95	1.34	1.23
Production (thousand tonnes)	1,594	2,301	1,800
Imports (thousand tonnes)Lentils note b	51	80	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	2,083	2,604	1,975
Exports (thousand tonnes)Lentils note b	1,601	2,250	1,600
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Lentils note c	259	254	250
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	223	100	125
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	12%	4%	7%
Average Price ($/tonne)Lentils note d	970	820	850
Table 18 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to lentils table note a referrer Table 18 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to lentils table note b referrer Table 18 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to lentils table note c referrer Table 18 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to lentils table note d referrer Table 18 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to lentils table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry Beans

For 2022-23, dry bean exports were higher than 2021-22 despite lower Canadian supply. The US and the EU remained the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Mexico. A larger North American supply impacted Canadian dry bean prices in 2022-23, which fell marginally from the previous year.

For 2023-24, Canadian production is forecast to decrease to 0.3 Mt, as higher seeded area is partly offset with lower yields. By province, Ontario is expected to account for 32% of total dry bean production, Manitoba 45%, Alberta 18%, with the remainder in Saskatchewan, Quebec and the Maritimes. Supply is expected to fall due to the lower production and carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower than the previous year. Canada is expected to maintain its market share in the US, Europe and Japan. As a result of the smaller supply, carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be marginally lower despite smaller expected supply in North America.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to fall by 3% to 1.21 million acres, largely due to decreased area seeded in Nebraska. Total US dry bean production for 2023-24 (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA to fall to 1.0 Mt, down 12% from 2022-23.

Dry Beans^{Dry beans note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Dry beans note f	2023-2024Dry beans note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	172	120	129
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	162	117	127
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.25	2.67	2.36
Production (thousand tonnes)	364	313	300
Imports (thousand tonnes)Dry beans note b	71	75	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	540	528	455
Exports (thousand tonnes)Dry beans note b	323	370	330
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)Dry beans note c	77	78	75
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	140	80	50
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	35%	18%	12%
Average Price ($/tonne)Dry beans note d	1,210	1,165	1,140
Table 19 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 19 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 19 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 19 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 19 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2022-23, Canadian chickpea exports were higher than the previous year at a record 235 thousand tonnes (Kt). This was largely due to higher exports to Turkey, the US and the EU. With the lower supply and higher exports, carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply. The average price was marginally higher than the previous year due to lower world supply.

For 2023-24, production is forecast to rise to 170 Kt due to higher area. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for the majority of the chickpea production, with the remainder in Alberta. Supply is forecast to be lower than last year. Exports are forecast to decrease from 2022-23 and carry-out stocks are expected to be similar to the previous year. The average price is forecast to be notably lower than 2022-23.

US chickpea area for 2023-2024 is forecast by the USDA at 0.39 million acres, up 10% from the previous year. Assuming average yields and abandonment, 2023-24 US chickpea production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 0.23 Mt, up 40% from last year.

Chickpeas ^{Chickpeas note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Chickpeas note f	2023-2024Chickpeas note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	90	95	128
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	88	95	127
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.04	1.35	1.34
Production (thousand tonnes)	91	128	170
Imports (thousand tonnes) Chickpeas note b	30	45	45
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	395	328	240
Exports (thousand tonnes) Chickpeas note b	176	235	145
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) Chickpeas note c	64	68	70
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	155	25	25
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	65%	8%	12%
Average Price ($/tonne) Chickpeas note d	975	1,000	900
Table 20 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 20 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 20 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 20 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 20 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard seed

For 2022-23, Canadian mustard seed exports were higher than the previous year at 120 Kt due to increased demand from the US and the EU. Carry-out stocks rose sharply due to the increased supply. Prices were pressured from the higher Canadian and US yellow and brown mustard seed stocks. Prices for all mustard types were sharply lower than the previous year. As a result, the Canadian average price across all types was 26% lower than the record prices set in 2021-22.

For 2023-24, production is estimated at 170 Kt, only 5% higher than last year, despite a 15% rise in seeded area. Expectations for lower yields and higher abandonment due to dry, hot weather are the reasons for the marginal increase in production. Supply is expected to increase by 18%, to 212 Kt, as higher carry-in stocks combine with the rise in output. Exports are expected to be higher at 125 Kt, with the US and the EU being the main markets for Canadian mustard seed. With the increased supply, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise. The average price is forecast to be 23% lower than 2022-23 with a price of $1,650/t.

Mustard Seed ^{Mustard Seed note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Mustard Seed note f	2023-2024Mustard Seed note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	117	225	258
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	110	219	250
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	0.55	0.74	0.68
Production (thousand tonnes)	61	162	170
Imports (thousand tonnes) Mustard Seed note b	9	11	7
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	130	179	212
Exports (thousand tonnes) Mustard Seed note b	106	120	125
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) Mustard Seed note c	18	24	22
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	6	35	65
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	5%	24%	44%
Average Price ($/tonne) Mustard Seed note d	2,885	2,140	1,650
Table 21 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 21 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 21 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 21 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 21 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary seed

For 2022-23, exports were 145 Kt, higher than the previous year due to larger Canadian supply. There were increased exports to Mexico and the EU, particularly, Belgium. The average producer price was 20% lower than a year earlier.

For 2023-24, production is estimated at 135 Kt, down 15% from last year, due to a decrease in area and lower expected yields. Supplies are forecast to decrease due to the fall in production, despite higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to remain unchanged from 2022-23 despite the fall in supply, with the EU and Mexico continuing to be the main markets, followed by the US and Brazil. The average price is forecast to be 7% lower than in 2022-23.

Canary Seed ^{Canary Seed note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Canary Seed note f	2023-2024Canary Seed note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	122	118	104
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	121	117	103
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.05	1.36	1.31
Production (thousand tonnes)	127	159	135
Imports (thousand tonnes) Canary Seed note b	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	201	213	193
Exports (thousand tonnes) Canary Seed note b	139	145	145
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) Canary Seed note c	8	10	8
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	54	58	40
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	37%	37%	26%
Average Price ($/tonne) Canary Seed note d	1,125	900	835
Table 22 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 22 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 22 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 22 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower seed

For 2022-23, sunflower seed exports decreased to 30 Kt due to a fall in demand from the US. As a result, carry-out stocks were higher than the previous year. The total average Canadian price for sunflower seed decreased notably from the previous year as lower oil type sunflower seed prices more than offset the record confectionery type prices.

For 2023-24, production is estimated at 80 Kt, down from last year, as seeded area was unchanged from the previous year, at 38 thousand hectares, however, yields are expected to be lower than last year. Exports are forecast to be higher at 40 Kt due to expectations for increased US demand. The US remains Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed, with small amounts moving to the Middle East and South America. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to 145 Kt. Sunflower seed prices are forecast to fall by 13% to $700/t, due to lower prices for oil and confectionery types.

For the US sunflower crop, the USDA forecasts that the area seeded to oil-type varieties is expected to fall to 1.18 million acres, while the area seeded to confectionery-type varieties is forecast to increase to 0.16 million acres. Assuming normal yields and lower abandonment, 2023-24 US sunflower seed production is forecast by AAFC to fall sharply to 0.9 Mt.

For 2023-24, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at 64 Mt, marginally lower than last year. This is due to lower carry-in stocks from the previous year in Ukraine. World exports are expected to fall sharply to 3.7 Mt, while total domestic use is expected to rise marginally to a record 55 Mt. As a result, world carry-out stocks are expected to fall 17% to 4.6 Mt. This is expected to be supportive for Canadian oil-type sunflower seed prices in 2023-24.

Sunflower Seed ^{Sunflower Seed note a}: August 18, 2023

	2021-2022	2022-2023Sunflower Seed note f	2023-2024Sunflower Seed note f
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	37	38	38
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	37	38	37
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.04	2.24	2.16
Production (thousand tonnes)	75	84	80
Imports (thousand tonnes) Sunflower Seed note b	37	40	35
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	228	242	255
Exports (thousand tonnes) Sunflower Seed note b	41	30	40
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) Sunflower Seed note c	68	72	70
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	118	140	145
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	108%	137%	132%
Average Price ($/tonne) Sunflower Seed note d	900	800	700
Table 23 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 23 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 23 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 23 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2022-2023 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.