The interim Canadian Drought Outlook is currently provided as a seasonal forecast. Our previous forecast maps that projected whether drought conditions across Canada would develop, persist, or improve, have been temporarily removed. Efforts are underway to update the Canadian Drought Outlook maps. In the meantime an interim seasonal Canadian Drought Outlook narrative will be posted on this page.
Summer Drought Outlook (July to September 2026)
National Summary
A cool, wet spring led to significant improvements in drought conditions across much of Canada, including two- to three-category improvements across the southern Prairies, northern Manitoba, southern Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. At the end of June, drought conditions began to intensify again throughout British Columbia, parts of the Northwest Territories, northeastern Quebec and Labrador (Figure 1). The cool, wet spring delayed the wildfire season and reduced the overall drought conditions. However, drought severity and wildfire risk are expected to increase as summer progresses. As temperatures rise and conditions become drier, the timing and distribution of precipitation will be critical in limiting drought development, particularly in western Canada.
The summer forecast indicates notable shifts in both temperature and precipitation patterns across the Prairies and central and eastern Canada. Warmer-than-average summer is predicted across most of Canada, with the strongest heat signals in British Columbia, the western Prairies, western portions of the Northwest Territories, and portions of Atlantic Canada. The precipitation forecast remains highly variable, with wetter conditions predicted in the northeastern part of BC, portions of Ontario, and Labrador. There is a high probability of below normal precipitation across much of British Columbia, the southern Prairies and northwestern Ontario. There is high potential for severe thunderstorms and localized flooding through central and eastern portions of the Prairies.
A transition to El Niño is expected to develop and strengthen this summer, driven by rising sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This transition increases confidence in the seasonal outlook.
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The table shows that in the Pacific, Prairies, and Central region drought is worsening and in Atlantic Canada, drought is expected to remain stable.
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The map above shows the extent and severity of drought conditions across Canada. The scale used runs from D0 Abnormally dry to D4 Exceptional drought.
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The map above shows forecast probability of temperature above, below and near normal (calibrated) for the period of July-August-September 2026, based on 3 equiprobable categories from 1991-2020 climatology
Pacific Region (BC)
British Columbia's summer forecast indicates a high probability of above normal temperatures throughout most of the province with greater anomalies in the south. Overall, Environment and Climate Change Canada are forecasting below normal precipitation in coastal regions and equal chances of above normal, normal or below normal precipitation through most of the province. The forecast shows indication of above normal precipitation in the Peace region in the northeast. Other forecasts are showing more confidence in hot and dry conditions through the southern interior. As summer progresses, an El Niño-driven pattern of warmer and drier conditions is expected to intensify drought across much of the province. Below normal snow pack through southern portions of the province have led to decreased stream flow and water supplies; without significant precipitation through the summer. Reduced streamflows and limited water supplies could allow drought conditions to intensify rapidly if substantial precipitation does not occur. Wildfire activity is expected to peak during July and August, particularly across the central and southern interior.
Prairie Region (AB, SK, MB)
Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected to develop early in the summer and persist throughout the season. Western regions of the Prairies are anticipated to see a quick transition to warmer temperatures through early summer driven by the change to El Nino conditions. Although seasonal forecasts shows equal chances of above, below, or near normal precipitation in the southern Prairies, warmer than normal conditions are likely to support the development of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall events due to abundant atmospheric moisture. These storm events will provide opportunities for localized soil moisture recharge. In the northern Prairies, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s seasonal forecast, shows good confidence in above normal precipitation. As the summer progresses high temperatures and below-normal precipitation will likely lead to increasingly dry conditions across much of the region by late summer. Precipitation will remain largely scattered, driven largely by thunderstorms and localized downpours.
Central Region (ON, QC)
Drought conditions began to develop in northern portions of Ontario, and portions of Quebec in June. Northwestern Ontario experienced a brief reprieve from drought during late winter and early spring; however, conditions deteriorated again in late spring, raising concerns about drought impacts and wildfire risk. Drought conditions in northern Quebec persisted through winter and spring and intensified further during the season. Southern regions of both provinces received good moisture this spring providing a good start to the cropping season.
The seasonal forecast from Environment and Climate Change Canada predicts warmer-than-normal average temperatures for the central region with increased probability of above normal temperatures. The precipitation forecast shows less confidence, with more areas throughout the central region having equal chances of below normal, normal or above normal precipitation. However there are a few regions that are showing some confidence in below normal including north western Ontario and western central Quebec.
In northwestern Ontario below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures are likely to result in an expansion of Drought extent and severity. These hot , dry conditions along with the increase in thunderstorm activity could contribute to an active wildfire season. Southern Ontario has seen significant moisture this spring leading to drought recovery. Warmer than normal temperatures are not anticipated to result in drought develop, unless accompanied by dry conditions that last over several months. The drier and warmer forecast suggests drought condition will continue to expand and increase in severity through the summer in northern regions of Quebec. Increasing drought severity will exacerbate already low streamflows and place additional pressure on hydroelectric generation. Warmer than normal conditions are forecast for southern Quebec as well however the precipitation forecast shows equal chances of below normal, normal or above normal conditions. As a result, confidence in drought development across southern Quebec remains low.
Atlantic Region (NS, NB, PE, NL)
Spring conditions varied considerably from month to month across the Atlantic region, with wetter and drier conditions through the Maritime provinces while eastern Newfoundland has seen warmer and drier than normal conditions. Overall the wetter months this spring provided significant moisture and improved drought conditions from last summer throughout the maritime region. Cooler temperatures in June helped reduce the drought development despite below normal precipitation throughout much of the region. In Newfoundland however, eastern and southern regions have experienced drought development.
Near normal seasonal temperatures are expected overall, however fluctuations in temperatures are anticipated, with August to be warmer than other months. Inland regions are expected to experience higher temperatures than coastal regions. Precipitation is predicted to be near normal with a possibility of slightly below normal in some regions. Although hurricane activity is expected to be below average overall, impactful storms remain possible. In Newfoundland warmer and drier conditions are predicting in eastern regions.
Higher than normal August temperatures and below normal precipitation are forecast through the end of the summer. Drought conditions may redevelop across parts of the Maritimes; however, any drought that develops is not expected to become severe. Adequate spring moisture has reduced regional vulnerability and replenished soil moisture reserves. In Newfoundland, existing drought conditions are expected to persist but are not anticipated to worsen significantly through the season.
About the Canadian Drought Outlook
The interim Canadian Drought Outlook discusses if drought across Canada will develop, stay the same or improve by for the end of the season based on ECCC's forecast information, Canadian Drought Monitor, and expert opinion.
The Canadian Drought Outlook was developed by the National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS) at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. For more information contact us at aafc.droughtwatch-guetterlasecheresse.aac@agr.gc.ca.