National Agroclimate Risk Report

As of October 15, 2025

This report is to provide timely information on regional agroclimate conditions, risks, and impacts across Canada.

National Overview

The most significant climate-related agricultural risk continues to be the prevalence of drought conditions across most of the country. Drought expanded across Eastern Canada over the reporting period, particularly in the Atlantic Region. As of September 30th, 85% of Canada's agricultural landscape was classified as Abnormally Dry (D0) or in Drought, including 67% in Moderate (D1) to Extreme (D3) Drought.

Drought in the Atlantic Region has resulted in a significant impact to crops and water supplies, as well as an increased wildfire risk across the region.

Temperatures are expected to remain above average (compared to 1991-2020 averages) across the country in October. Higher than normal precipitation is forecast for southern Vancouver Island in British Columbia and northeastern Quebec. Below normal precipitation is expected across the eastern Prairies, parts of Ontario, and southern Quebec.

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected to persist across the western Prairies, Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic Region, contributing to ongoing drought and poor soil moisture.

30 Day Precipitation Percentiles (September 12 to October 13, 2025)

30 Day Precipitation Percentiles (September 12 to October 13, 2025), high-resolution image (5 MB JPG)

Very low precipitation was received over the reporting period in parts of southern British Columbia, Alberta, southwestern Saskatchewan and most of Eastern Canada. Near or slightly above-normal precipitation was received in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Canadian Drought Monitor (Conditions as of September 30, 2025)

Canadian Drought Monitor, conditions as of September 30, 2025, high-resolution image (5 MB JPG)

Drought continued to worsen in September with the expansion of drought extent and severity. Extreme drought was noted in all ten provinces and the two territories assessed.

Moderate (D1) and Severe (D2) drought expanded in southern and central British Columbia, with a new Extreme Drought (D3) pocket in the south and a small Exceptional Drought (D4) region in the northeast. Across the Prairie Region Extreme Drought (D3) expanded along the Alberta/Saskatchewan border.

Severe Drought (D2) expanded in eastern Ontario, and 3 new pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerged north of Orillia, north of Peterborough, and from Kingston towards Ottawa. In Quebec, Abnormally Dry (D0) to Severe Drought (D2) expanded in the south and Extreme Drought (D3) emerged in the east.

In New Brunswick, much of the province is in Severe Drought (D2) to Exceptional Drought (D4), mostly in the east. On Prince Edward Island, Extreme Drought (D3) still covers the entire province. Nova Scotia has experienced the driest late-summer periods on record, resulting in the expansion of Extreme Drought (D3) across much of the province and the emergence of a pocket of Exceptional Drought (D4) in the southwest.

Regional Conditions

• British Columbia
  • September continued to be generally dry and unseasonably hot across the province, with the exception of coastal areas that received significant precipitation.
  • Drought conditions in the Central Interior worsened with Severe Drought (D2) conditions expanding and Extreme Drought (D3) emerging in the south and central regions.
  • Harvest is nearly complete for most tree fruits and cherries, with yields expected to be higher than last year. However, quality varies for some tree fruit, in part due to lingering frost damage from 2024.
  • Generally, yields are near average for vegetables and other specialty crops in the Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island, southern Interior, with some yield and quality issues occurring from intermittent rainfall during harvest. Potato harvest is underway with above average yields expected.
  • Forage, hay, and pasture conditions varied from region to region. In the Peace Region, drought conditions reduced yields to below average and stressed pastures.
  • Harvest of cereal and oilseed crops (for example, wheat, barley, and canola) has advanced. In the Peace Region, the main production area for cereals and oilseeds, yields were below average due to drought and are expected to be 80 to 85% of normal.
  • Harvest is complete for blueberries, with below average yields due to berry sizing. However, there was average to above average yields for raspberries and strawberries. Harvest is in progress for cranberries.
  • Some municipalities in the southern Okanagan have elevated their water restrictions and there are concerns for irrigation water availability next season.
• Alberta
  • The majority of Alberta received less than 40% of normal precipitation in September, intensifying drought conditions across the province.
  • Harvest is 96% complete as of October 7 and yields are expected to exceed the 5-year average, with the exception of the Peace Region where yields are expected to be only near average.
  • Fall-seeding progress remains closely tied to local soil moisture conditions. Approximately 43% of the province was rated as having poor surface moisture and 40% as fair. Provincially, sub-surface soil moisture is rated at 19% good to excellent, well below the 5-year average of 37%. Conditions are better in the Southern and Central regions, but worse in the Northeast (around Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, and Provost) where fall-seeded crop conditions are rated as 39% poor and 58% as fair.
  • Cooler, dry weather continues to slow pasture growth, with only 15% now rated good to excellent. However, southern and central regions that received more rain are seeing better conditions. Many producers have begun moving cattle off pasture and have started supplemental feeding.
• Saskatchewan
  • Warm and dry weather over the reporting period supported harvest progress with 93% of harvest completed as of October 6th. Crop yields and quality were variable across the province, but most crop yields are near or above average.
  • Late-season rains have improved pasture growth, but overall hay yields remain lower than normal.
  • Topsoil moisture has declined across much of the province, with conditions rated adequate to short for cropland (83%) and hay land (73%). Most pastures, however, fall into the short to very short category (71%).
  • Most irrigation has ceased, except for some late season crops like potatoes, vegetables and forages, and most irrigated crops had not started harvest as of September 29.
  • Water quality has declined in dry regions where reservoirs and water source levels have fallen. However, most livestock producers (77%) had no concerns as of September 29.
  • Pasture quality remains uneven across the province, with improvement in East central and Southeastern regions following recent rainfall, while other areas continued to decline. Some producers plan to remove cattle early and begin supplementing feed to support pasture recovery ahead of fall moisture.
• Manitoba
  • Due to late September and early October rains in southern Manitoba, conditions have improved.
  • Harvest continues to advance and, as of October 6, was approximately 86% complete. Cereals and pulses are mostly complete, while soybeans and corn silage harvest are 69% complete, and grain corn harvest has just begun.
  • Overall crop yields are average to above average for cereals, oilseeds, and corn silage, while soybean and pea yields are near normal. Generally, crop quality is good, although delayed harvest and rain downgraded some wheat, barley and soybeans in some localized areas.
  • Recent precipitation led to wet conditions in the southwest, central, and eastern regions as of October 5, resulting in adequate to excessive topsoil moisture. In contrast, the Interlake and parts of the Eastern region remain dry due to minimal September rainfall. This variability is making winter cereal establishment and fall fieldwork challenging.
  • Pasture conditions are mostly rated as good, but in drier regions, such as the Interlake region, producers are facing feed shortages and are hauling water for cattle. While most producers have secured enough winter feed, producers in drier areas are sourcing feed from other regions.
  • Most cattle continue to graze on pastures, or harvested crop fields, and are in excellent condition coming into the fall and calf marketing season.
• Ontario
  • September was warmer and drier than normal, resulting in an increased drought extent across the province, most notably in eastern and central Ontario.
  • Harvest advanced quickly and as of October 8, all cereal crops (for example, spring wheat, barley, oats) were harvested. Soybean harvest is approximately 77% completed and grain corn harvest is just beginning.
  • There is large regional variability in crop yields due to the prolonged dry and hot conditions. Areas that received timely rainfall have yielded close to normal, but many areas with lighter soil (less clay content) and less precipitation fall well below 10-year averages, especially in southwest Ontario. Corn and soybeans yields are the most impacted, although cereal crop yields were still variable and lower than in recent years.
  • Areas of northern Ontario have reported corn damaged by frost, which will impact quality and moisture content. Quality downgrades in cereal crops were reported where drought or late rains stressed crops, and many producers are balancing drying costs versus field work.
  • As of October 8, 78% of winter wheat planting was complete, following near-normal progress where soil had adequate moisture, though very dry areas experienced delays or reduced crop establishment.
  • Dry and hot conditions limited regrowth in some hay fields and pastures, reducing fall forage availability and increasing reliance on stored feed.
• Quebec
  • September was warmer and drier than normal, resulting in increased drought areas in southern and eastern portions of the province.
  • As harvest advanced, progress and yields varied by region and crop type. At the end of September, harvest was completed for most cereals (for example, spring wheat, barley and oats). Soybean harvest is highly variable but remains near to slightly below 5-year averages, especially in the southern region. Grain and silage corn maturity and harvest are uneven, mostly due to the delayed start of the growing season and localized moisture deficits. Soil conditions were favorable for winter cereals planting and emergence.
  • Silage corn yields are also highly variable and below average. Generally, yields were below average in the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region, where cooler late season weather resulted in later maturity and delayed ripening. Early frost experienced in late September may affect grain corn maturity and quality.
  • Hay harvest in mid to late September faced challenges, including delayed cuts and quality issues.
  • Warm and drier than normal conditions, along with patchy rainfall patterns, are responsible for most regional and localized differences in crop and hay yields. Some diseases and pest pressures were reported in soybeans prior to harvest.
  • September pasture conditions decreased in many areas due to dry conditions and reduced late-season growth, though some regions held up better with residual moisture.
  • Harvest has begun or is nearly complete in key regions for all major horticulture and specialty crops (for example, cranberries, fruits and vegetables), with crop yields expected to be close to the 5-year average.
  • Rivers in several regions are at record low levels. Some shallow wells, on which some agricultural producers depend, are dry.
• Atlantic Region
  • Harvest is nearly complete across the region, with only corn, beans, and potatoes remaining.
  • Recent rainfall helped reduce wildfire risk but came too late to benefit most crops. Overall yields are down. Some on-farm water sources have dried-up forcing producers to haul water, especially in Nova Scotia.
  • Fruit and vegetable crops are generally smaller due to the lack of moisture. Apples are much smaller, and some have reported reduced yields (approximately 50%) where irrigation was unavailable. New tree plantings were also impacted by drought conditions. Wild blueberries are estimated to have a 50-70% yield reduction. Some regions were hit harder than others depending on rainfall.
  • Next year's crop may also be impacted by the dry conditions as wild blueberries are managed in a two-year cycle. Conditions in the sprout year (2025) determine the viability of fruit buds in the crop year (2026).
  • Impacts on the wild blueberry sector are likely to spill over to the province's beekeepers who provide pollination services for the sector. Lack of viable plants to forage for nectar and lack of water are also affecting native bees and honeybees.
  • Forages are reduced overall and there was very little last cut due to the hot and very dry conditions. Many producers around the region need to purchase feed. Some producers are already feeding their winter stores. Hay prices are expected to be high.

Forecast

• The October forecast is for above-normal temperatures across the country with the highest probability of high temperatures in Eastern Canada. Above-normal precipitation is expected in southern Vancouver Island in British Columbia, northeastern Quebec and Labrador. Below normal precipitation is forecast for the Prairie Regions especially eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba and also across much of Ontario and southern Quebec.
• The seasonal forecast for October through December is for above-normal temperatures across the country and is most likely over northwestern Ontario and Quebec and much of the Atlantic Region. The seasonal precipitation forecast is for drier than normal conditions in the northern Gaspé Region of Quebec, southern Nova Scotia and southeastern Manitoba. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for central and northern British Columbia and northern Alberta and Saskatchewan.
• The forecasted high temperatures will help conclude harvest operations and support the seeding of fall crops. However, such conditions may also further deplete soil moisture across agricultural areas.

This report was created with help from our network of Agroclimate Impact Reporter volunteers. Each month, they help us report on current conditions and weather-related risks to Canada's agriculture sector. Join the network if you are interested in becoming an Agroclimate Impact Reporter.