As of July 9, 2024
This report provides timely information on the regional agroclimate conditions, risks, and impacts across Canada. Reports are produced every four weeks.
National Overview
The most significant climate-related agricultural risks this reporting period are Moderate to Extreme Drought conditions in British Columbia and northwestern Alberta.
In Western Canada, while drought conditions generally improved throughout June, they continue to be severe and extensive in northern regions of British Columbia and the Peace Region of Alberta.
Exceptionally warm temperatures are forecast throughout Western Canada due to a strong high pressure system. Hot conditions will be welcomed by many of the producers who experienced a cool spring. However, for many, and especially in British Columbia, the heat will result in increased drought and associated crop damage.
Western Canada has a low probability of receiving significant precipitation through the next few weeks, while Eastern Canada has a higher probability of significant rainfall.
30 Day Precipitation Percentiles (June 7 to July 7, 2024)
Precipitation Percentiles in past 30 days, as of July 7, 2024, high-resolution image (5 MB JPG)
Precipitation over the last 30 days has been near normal to slightly below normal for much of British Columbia, near normal to below normal for Alberta, and above normal for much of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Most regions of Ontario and Quebec have experienced well above normal precipitation. Precipitation has been near normal in Atlantic Canada.
Canadian Drought Monitor (Conditions as of June 30, 2024)
Canadian Drought Monitor, conditions as of June 30, 2024, high-resolution image (5 MB JPG)
Cooler-than-normal temperatures across Western Canada, along with above-normal precipitation in many regions, especially the eastern prairies, resulted in the continued improvement of drought conditions on top of the significant improvements made last month.
Although drought conditions remain in central Alberta and much of British Columbia, conditions have improved since spring.
At the end of the June, 21% of the country’s agricultural landscape was classified as Abnormally Dry (D0) compared to 38% in May. Moderate to Exceptional Drought (D1 to D4) covered 14% of the agricultural landscape compared to 21% in May.
Regional Conditions
- British Columbia
- Precipitation has been below normal across much of the province, despite some significant localized events. Temperatures remained slightly above normal with the first prolonged heat event of the season just beginning.
- Drought conditions have improved slightly in some regions in June, with Severe to Extreme Drought covering agricultural areas in the northern portion of the province.
- Forage production is below normal due to early season frost and/or drought persistence. Many regions of the province are reporting below 50% production at this time.
- Tree fruit producers continue to deal with heavy losses from the effects of a hard winter freeze Precipitation has been below normal across much of the province, despite some significant localized events. Temperatures remained slightly above normal with the first prolonged heat event of the season just beginning.and the more recent abundance of moisture and extreme temperatures. The most recent yield estimates are well below industry normal (<20% of normal yield) for crops such as cherries, grapes, peaches, apricots and nectarines.
- In addition to the high temperatures, an extended dry period is forecast, which could result in rapidly increasing drought concerns, particularly in the Peace and north-central regions.
- Alberta
- The province has experienced below normal temperatures and highly variable precipitation this month. May and June precipitation significantly improved soil moisture reserves across the province. Currently, surface soil moisture is rated at 75% good to excellent. While drought conditions have reduced significantly, pockets remain in both the northwest and Peace regions.
- Provincially, crop conditions are rated at 75% good to excellent, above both the 5- and 10-year averages. Spring cereal development is near the 10-year averages despite concerns of growth delays due to the cool and wet weather.
- Pastures are generally in good condition as a result of adequate precipitation and recent warm weather. The first cut of hay has begun in all regions of the province.
- Despite the cooler spring temperatures, all regions predict that higher temperatures, forecast for this week, will improve crop development. High temperatures may also increase drought impacts in drier regions.
- Saskatchewan
- Below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation have dominated much of Saskatchewan. Drought conditions have all but been eliminated across the province.
- Crop development remains slower than normal due to cool spring conditions. However, most areas are reporting good crop conditions.
- Crop damage has been reported in some areas due to the excess moisture with low lying areas having drowned out crops. Hail, wind, and gopher crop damage was also reported.
- Producers are reporting overall good pasture conditions throughout the province. Many producers slowed or delayed their haying operations because of frequent rains.
- Manitoba
- Agricultural regions of Manitoba received variable amounts of precipitation since the last reporting period. Precipitation accumulation in most areas has exceeded 140% of normal precipitation since May 1.
- Temperatures have continued to be cooler than normal, resulting in delayed crop development. Corn, dry beans and soybeans are developing slower while wheat and peas are copping better with the cool conditions.
- Grass and forages are growing well and would benefit from warmer weather. Most dairy farmers have taken their first cut of alfalfa silage.
- Dugouts and irrigation ponds are mostly recharged and some ditches have standing water. There has been some localized yellowing of crops caused by excess moisture.
- Ontario
- Well above normal precipitation has been received across most of Ontario. Excess moisture has caused delays, particularly in the southwest.
- The winter wheat harvest has begun in southern Ontario. Frequent rains have slowed the pace of the harvest and the wheat crop in some areas has lodged because of intense storms and high wind events in late June.
- The combination of higher temperatures and plentiful rains has positively impacted the yield for tree fruit and small fruit producers.
- Frequent and excessive rainfall continued to impact hay quality because harvest has been delayed. While hay yields are expected to be excellent, producers are monitoring their hay for molds and excessive heating.
- Quebec
- The reporting period saw both near record cool and near record warm temperatures. Several low pressure systems brought significant precipitation. Overall, precipitation is above normal for the majority of region and slightly lower in the northeastern regions.
- Localized damage following thunderstorms, heavy rain, wind gusts and hail episodes have been reported. The system of June 22-23 brought 50 to 100 mm of rain depending on the region, causing minor flooding.
- Heavy rainfall, hail and episodes of high heat have resulted in reports of localized damage for several horticultural crops including small fruits and vegetables.
- Corn and soybeans crops are in good conditions. Fall cereals are in excellent condition and seem to have mostly withstood the stormy conditions.
- The first hay cut was completed in relatively favorable conditions in most regions except in the northwest. The second cut has started in some regions.
- Atlantic Region
- Overall the region experienced some dry and hot conditions in early June, followed by cooler and wetter periods, including significant precipitation events on June 24-25. In some areas, rainfall was intense and record breaking. Prior to this event, much of the region had received less than half their normal spring precipitation. Heat warnings were issued for many parts of the region in mid-June.
- Overall crop growth is about 1-2 weeks ahead of normal. Good heat followed by rainfall has helped considerably over the reporting period.
- First and second cut forage are both well underway and completed in some areas. In some areas, producers are harvesting their second cut forage and are reporting lower than expected yields.
Forecast
- The July forecast is for continued above normal temperatures across the country. Well below normal precipitation is expected in agricultural areas of Western Canada particularly in British Columbia and western Alberta and also across the Atlantic region. Above normal precipitation is expected in southeastern Manitoba and northern Ontario.
- Persistence of warmer than normal temperatures could result in accelerated field work and crop development. Despite improved moisture conditions across much of Western Canada, much of the region remains vulnerable to degrading drought conditions if sustained moisture is not received.
This report was created with help from our network of Agroclimate Impact Reporter volunteers. Each month, they help us report on current conditions and weather-related risks to Canada's agriculture sector. Join the network if you are interested in becoming an Agroclimate Impact Reporter.