As of May 7, 2024
This report provides timely information on the regional agroclimate conditions, risks, and impacts across Canada. Reports are produced every four weeks.
National Overview
The most significant climate-related agricultural risks this reporting period are drought conditions across Western Canada.
Low snowpack and warm winter temperatures did not provide the moisture required to replenish soil moisture and surface water supplies in many regions. In British Columbia, drought conditions are the most severe and extensive in northern regions around Prince George and Dawson Creek. In the Prairie region, east central and northwest Alberta continue to be the biggest concerns.
Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast throughout the country (compared to 1991-2020 averages), and could result in accelerated field work and seeding activities. However, more moisture is needed in most western regions to support seed germination.
30 Day Precipitation Percentiles (April 6 to May 6, 2024)
Precipitation Percentiles in past 30 days, as of May 6, 2024, high-resolution image (5 MB JPG)
Precipitation over the last 30 days has been near normal to above normal across most of the Prairie region, while below normal precipitation was seen throughout much of the Pacific region. In Eastern Canada, precipitation was extremely high in southern Ontario, near normal through most of Quebec and below normal in Atlantic Canada.
Canadian Drought Monitor (Conditions as of April 30, 2024)
Canadian Drought Monitor, conditions as of April 30, 2024, high-resolution image (5 MB JPG)
Warm temperatures, low snowpack, and ineffective precipitation has resulted in drought conditions continuing throughout much of Western Canada. Despite precipitation in April, parts of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan continued to report large long-term precipitation deficits and drought impacts. Areas of Extreme (D3) to Exceptional Drought (D4) have decreased across the southern Prairies while central and northwestern Alberta saw expansion. British Columbia saw a slight degradation in drought conditions across Vancouver Island, the southern Interior and North.
At the end of the April, 75% of the country’s agricultural landscape was classified as Abnormally Dry (D0) or Moderate to Exceptional Drought (D1 to D4).
Regional Conditions
- British Columbia
- British Columbia has had very low snowpacks through the winter, raising the concern for drought this season. As of May 1st, the provincial snowpack was 67% of normal. Provincial mid/high elevation snowpacks persist with recent cooler temperatures. Significant precipitation deficits exist across much of the province, resulting in ongoing drought conditions.
- Winter plant damage, as a result of a sudden temperature drop in January, is extensive and wide-reaching in the southern Interior region. There are very low yield expectations for sweet cherries, peaches, nectarines, apricots and grapes. Less than 10% of average yield is forecast for grapes and less than 25% yield is forecast for sweet cherries. Losses in other soft tree fruit may be total, but the extent of damage is still being determined. Apples and pears may not be impacted by the freeze, but may be impacted by drought.
- There are currently 108 fires, of which 85 are holdover fires from last year. At this time there are no fires of significant agricultural concern. In addition, there are no anticipated agricultural flood risks this spring.
- Planting of field crops is underway despite the cooler recent weather. It is too early to assess the weather impact on the crops for the season.
- Alberta
- Seeding operations have begun across the province.
- Moisture deficits accumulated from several consecutive years of drought have resulted in exceptionally poor soil moisture, low water supplies, and poor pasture quality. These conditions pose significant challenges entering the 2024 growing season.
- Over 90% of Alberta farmland continue to be affected by drought, with over 40% of farmland in Severe to Exceptional Drought.
- Current soil moisture reserves are well below normal throughout most agricultural areas, with the exception of southern regions, where recent rain has significantly improved conditions.
- Fifty-one river basins, covering over half of the agricultural land in the province, are currently reporting critical water shortages due to low precipitation and previous years of drought.
- The Oldman and St Mary’s reservoirs, which provide significant irrigation water for southern Alberta are exceptionally low, at 28% and 15% capacity, respectively.
- Saskatchewan
- Seeding operations have begun across the province. Seeding progress is most advanced in the southwest and west central regions. Recent rainfall has slowed seeding progress throughout much of the province.
- Persistent drier than normal conditions in western regions and above normal winter season temperatures have led to limited drought improvement and an increased risk of continued drought for the 2024 growing season.
- Some livestock producers had to reduce herds during the winter due to poor feed production and high costs resulting from the 2023 drought.
- Overall, producers’ concerns remain high due to possible moisture shortages and feed availability for the 2024 season, especially in the in southwest and west central parts of the province where some producers have already experienced many years of continuous drought.
- Manitoba
- Recent rains have improved soil moisture conditions across the Manitoba region, particularly in the central and southwest areas.
- Seeding has begun with the central region, with 10% of the spring cereals completed. The recent rains have stalled seeding until fields can dry up.
- Pastures and hayfields are starting to green up. The cooler weather has delayed regrowth. The recent precipitation and forecast warmer weather should improve forage and pasture conditions over the next few weeks. Livestock remain in winter feeding sites with feed supplies remaining adequate.
- Ontario
- All regions have received adequate rain to support the start of the 2024 growing season. In areas with heavy clay soils, excessive April rain may result in difficult planting conditions.
- Some field work, such as fertilizer and manure applications, has been delayed due to excess moisture.
- There are no reported impacts to the livestock sector.
- Quebec
- Favorable warm and dry conditions at the beginning of April allowed an early beginning of field preparation.
- Frost damage on some horticultural crops has been reported as a result of a cold front that recently swept through Quebec bringing snow and dropping temperatures to -7 to -10°C.
- The 2024 maple syrup production is exceptionally good.
- Atlantic Region
- April 2024 was the first month since November 2023 where temperatures were not above normal across the Atlantic region. Below normal precipitation gave many areas a chance to dry after March’s above average precipitation.
- Spring grain crops and early potato varieties are being planted in Prince Edward Island. Grain crops in some areas are being seeded more than two weeks early as a result of early spring conditions.
- Nova Scotia has a total fire ban in place due to dry weather and its history of forest fires in 2023. Some horticulture growers in the Annapolis Valley have started planting.
Forecast
- The May forecast is for above normal temperatures across the country. Above average precipitation is expected in parts of British Columbia and Alberta.
- Persistence of warmer than normal temperatures could result in accelerated field work and seeding activities, but more moisture is needed in Western Canadian regions to support seed germination.
This report was created with help from our network of Agroclimate Impact Reporter volunteers. Each month, they help us report on current conditions and weather-related risks to Canada's agriculture sector. Join the network if you are interested in becoming an Agroclimate Impact Reporter.