National Agroclimate Risk Report

As of October 8, 2024

This report provides timely information on the regional agroclimate conditions, risks, and impacts across Canada. This will be the last report for the 2024 growing season. Reporting will resume spring 2025.

National Overview

The most significant climate-related agricultural risk continues to be drought in Western Canada.

Harvest is nearly complete across the Prairies, with negative yield impacts reported in Alberta and Saskatchewan due to drought.

Drought in British Columbia has resulted in large forage losses in some regions.

Yields are expected to be exceptionally high in Ontario.

Yields are expected to be near or above normal in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

The Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) forecast indicates a low chance of precipitation and above seasonal temperatures across the country, particularly in Western Canada, in the short term. While these drier conditions will benefit harvest, they also raise concern for soil moisture levels across the Prairie region going into winter.

30 Day Precipitation Percentiles (September 7  to October 7, 2024)

Precipitation Percentiles in past 30 days, as of October 7, 2024, high-resolution image (5 MB JPG)

Precipitation over the last 30 days across Western Canada’s agricultural extent was variable. Northern British Columbia, central and eastern Alberta, and western Saskatchewan received above normal precipitation. Southern British Columbia and northern Manitoba received below normal precipitation. In Eastern Canada, precipitation was mostly below normal, particularly in southern and eastern Ontario, southeastern Quebec, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland.

Mean Temperature Difference from Normal (September 1 to 30, 2024)

Mean Temperature Differences from Normal, September 1 to 30, 2024, high-resolution image (5 MB JPG)

September temperatures were above normal across the country with the highest temperatures (4 to 5°C above normal) experienced in central Interior British Columbia, eastern Saskatchewan and much of Manitoba. Temperatures in Eastern Canada trended between 0 and 3°C above normal.

Regional Conditions

• British Columbia
  • British Columbia experienced record-breaking temperatures in early September, with many locations setting new highs early in the month. Above-seasonal temperatures have increased fire activity, with moderate to high fire danger ratings across most of the province. About 180 wildfires are still active, with 19 burning out of control, mainly in the Prince George region.
  • A series of atmospheric rivers moved across British Columbia’s north and central coasts and spreading into the Interior near the end of September. The River Forecast Centre has issued high-stream flow advisories and several flood watches throughout the province, as well as one higher-level flood warning for the Telkwa River in the northwest.
  • Berry crops in the Fraser Valley, Lower Mainland, and Vancouver Island are variable, with average yields expected. Significant rain in late July and again in late August resulted in minor losses and quality degradation. Raspberry and strawberry yields are expected to be low due to spring frost damage.
  • Many forage-producing areas are reporting low yields, with 25 to 50% of normal production reported in the Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island. In the Peace Region, yields are expected to be 50% of normal due to the lack of spring moisture and several days of temperatures greater than 30°C in July. Other areas of the province have harvested second and third cuts of generally low yield hay due to drought.
• Alberta
  • Harvest has advanced across Alberta over the past week (85% complete at the end of September), despite periods of rainfall, coupled with cooler evening temperatures. While recent precipitation continues to improve soil moisture levels, potential impacts on the quality of the remaining standing cereal crop are a concern.
  • With recent rains through southern and east-central areas, soil moisture reserves are now above average for this time of year. Despite many areas having plentiful rains this fall, large parts of the northwest, Peace Region and west-central areas are still experiencing low soil moisture reserves.
  • The fall-seeded crop is rated as 57% good to excellent, in line with the 5-year average.
  • Provincial pasture conditions showed an overall improvement. Provincial pasture rated in good to excellent condition was 35%.
• Saskatchewan
  • Harvest operations are nearly complete in Saskatchewan, where 91% of the crops have been harvested, due to warm and dry conditions.
  • The continued hot and dry conditions at the end of the season promoted low soil moisture and decreased crop yield potentials. Three percent of the harvested winter wheat and 6% of fall rye were used as feed due to concerns over low yield potential and the shortage of feeding under drought.
  • Crop yields presented high variability across the province due to heat, high temperatures, lack of soil moisture, and the variable rainfall received during critical stages of crop development. Overall, estimated crop yields are greater than last year, and above the 5-year average.
  • Although the rainfalls in the past weeks helped with greening up pastures for fall grazing, producers are hopeful for additional moisture to assist with a topsoil moisture shortage.  Livestock producers are concerned over water shortages and reduced water quality in the southwest and west-central regions due to drought.
  • In terms of water supply, most major reservoirs are at or near normal levels, except for the Big Stick Basin, like Highfield and Braddock reservoirs, which are now below normal. Flows on the Saskatchewan River are below normal due to lower flows on the North Saskatchewan River and lower than normal releases from Lake Diefenbaker.
• Manitoba
  • Soil moisture is variable across Manitoba’s agricultural extent, with the majority of the region showing optimal surface soil moisture conditions.
  • Harvest continues in spring cereals and canola. Spring cereals are nearing completion, and canola harvest is estimated at 78% complete. Soybean harvest progressed rapidly throughout the week, with 29% estimated as complete across the province. Flax harvest has started, with 17% estimated as complete. A minimal amount of corn has been harvested in the eastern region.
  • Pastures remain in good condition and livestock producers are preparing to bring animals to winter feeding areas. Dugout supplies remain adequate.
• Ontario
  • High day and nighttime temperatures in the end of September dominated Ontario to the benefit of late planted crops.
  • The heavy rains of the summer resulted in compacted soils, particularly areas where clay soils are present. Winter wheat planting has begun, and the dry conditions of September allowed growers to start their soybean harvest. Soybean yields are reported to be a record high in many areas.
  • Horticulture benefited from the above normal September heat. The apple crop harvest is underway, and the fruit are of high quality. The red and yellow onion harvest has started and is approximately 30% complete.
  • Hay harvested during September is of excellent quality. Corn silage harvesting has begun in the eastern and central regions whereas the southwestern region has yet to begin.
  • Due to a lack of periodic rain during September, pastures are somewhat bare in the south.
• Quebec
  • Weather conditions were favorable to the ripening of crops and the progress of harvest over the reporting period.
  • The harvest of cereals is complete. Soybean was at about 50% completed at the end of last week. The preliminary assessment of the horticulture growing season suggests highly variable conditions.
  • A third hay harvest has been completed across the province, except for a few regions in the east due to the lack of rain. Yield and quality are above average in Estrie, but variable in other regions. The early harvest of forage corn has begun due to good weather with variable yields reported.
• Atlantic Region
  • The Atlantic region overall experienced dry conditions over the reporting period. All provinces here could use additional moisture.
  • After a good start to the growing season, followed by excessively dry conditions later in the summer, the PEI Potato Board is expecting below average yields, but good overall quality.
  • The wild blueberry crop harvest was completed ahead of schedule with yields reported to be below average.
  • Field crops and forages have done well this year despite dry conditions.

Forecast

• The October forecast from ECCC predicts continued above normal temperatures across the country, with a high probability of extreme heat across Western Canada. Below normal precipitation is forecast across Canada’s agricultural regions, with the highest probability of dry conditions expected across the southern Prairies.

This report was created with help from our network of Agroclimate Impact Reporter volunteers. Each month, they help us report on current conditions and weather-related risks to Canada's agriculture sector. Join the network if you are interested in becoming an Agroclimate Impact Reporter.