Canadian Drought Outlook

 

The Canadian Drought Outlook is a monthly drought forecast. The map predicts if drought conditions across Canada will develop, stay the same or improve for the end of the following month.

Note: This application works on the latest versions of Google Chrome, Mozilla Firefox, or Apple Safari.

Drought conditions as of September 30, 2021 Legend for current drought conditions:
D0 - Abnormally dry
D1 - Moderate drought
D2 - Severe drought
D3 - Extreme drought
D4 - Exceptional drought
Drought not analyzed
Drought Outlook for end of the following month Legend for drought outlook:
Drought Removal
Drought Improves
Drought Develops
No change in drought
Drought Worsens

Canadian Drought Outlook on Open Data

Download the current Canadian Drought Outlook products on Open Data.

About the Canadian Drought Outlook

The Canadian Drought Outlook predicts if drought across Canada will develop, stay the same or improve for the end of the target month. The Canadian Drought Outlook maps are generated using Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) forecast data. Agroclimate indices, such as the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are calculated using the GEPS forecast data. These indices are then combined with the Canadian Drought Monitor to predict future changes in drought over the course of a month.

The Canadian Drought Outlook model runs on an ensemble forecast, a group of multiple forecasts which provide a range of possible outcomes. The drought outlook map displays a result predicting how the current drought assessment will change over the course of a month, where there is at least a 50% chance of occurrence.

The Canadian Drought Outlook was developed by the National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS) at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. For more information contact us at aafc.droughtwatch-guetterlasecheresse.aac@agr.gc.ca.