Competitive Trade Analysis – Agri-food and seafood trends in the Middle East and North Africa

Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.

Executive summary

A competitive trade analysis (CTA) is intended to examine major competitors and determine where a company or country compares within an industry or sector.

This CTA highlights agri-food and seafood trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and identifies the opportunities and potential growth areas for Canadian exporters.

Included are the top fifteen agri-food and seafood imports into MENA. Throughout the report, a series of supply gap analysis demonstrate the areas for potential growth in Canadian exports to MENA.

Middle East and North Africa market summary

MENA is one of the world's largest importer of agri-food and seafood products. MENA recorded imports of Can$183.9 billion in 2023, and Canada's share was 0.5% or Can$3.5 billion.

MENA is a net importer of agri-food and seafood products with a trade deficit of Can$109.1 billion. MENA's agri-food and seafood imports increased by 2.9% annually over 2019-24.

Top supplying countries to MENA were Brazil, India, Turkey, the United States (U.S.), and the Netherlands. The top five imports to MENA from 2019 to 2023 were corn, wheat and meslin, milled rice, and soybeans.

In 2023, Canada had an agri-food and seafood trade surplus of Can$2.6 billion with MENA. MENA's agri-food and seafood imports from Canada have increased by 7.1% annually over 2019-23. Top imports from Canada were drum wheat, lentils, and soybeans.

 

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) trade overview

MENA is a net importer of agri-food and seafood products. In 2023, MENA's agri-food and seafood trade deficit was Can$109.1 billion with imports valued at Can$183.9 billion, and Can$74.8 billion in exports. MENA's agri-food and seafood imports increased at a CAGR of 2.9% over 2019to 2024. In 2023, Canada had an agri-food and seafood trade surplus of Can$2.6 billion with MENA.

MENA's top four agri-food and seafood imports in 2023 were corn, wheat and meslin, milled rice, and soybeans. Top supplying countries were Brazil, India, Turkey, and the United States (U.S.). Imports from Canada have increased by a CAGR of 7.1% to rank as MENA's 20th import source.

MENA's top ten suppliers of agri-food and seafood, Can$ million
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
World 164,359 164,662 178,069 204,121 183,952 2.9
Brazil 15,510 14,980 16,299 25,384 25,552 13.3
India 13,182 12,185 11,986 15,853 14,768 2.9
Turkey 9,698 9,267 10,776 14,651 14,513 10.6
United States 10,909 10,798 11,306 13,698 10,393 −1.2
Netherlands 5,719 5,840 5,482 6,720 6,874 4.7
China 4,406 4,132 3,878 4,937 6,205 8.9
France 6,690 6,213 5,213 8,727 5,708 −3.9
Australia 2,686 2,700 4,541 6,561 5,313 18.6
Ukraine 8,753 8,090 9,623 6,687 5,020 −13.0
Saudi Arabia 4,231 4,173 4,357 5,265 4,690 2.6
Canada (20th) 2,634 3,457 3,599 3,587 3,470 7.1

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

In 2023, Canada ranked 4th for soybeans, 8th for wheat and meslin, 17th for frozen beef, and 25th for corn, and 27th for food preparations as an import supplier to MENA among global trade partners. Frozen beef was the fastest growing imports from Canada, increasingly 33.5% annually over 2019 to 2023, followed by corn (15.2%), and soybeans (9.0%).

MENA's top ten suppliers of agri-food and seafood, % share
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Percent Point* change 2019-2023
Brazil 9.4 9.1 9.2 12.4 14.0 4.6
India 8.0 7.4 6.7 7.8 8.1 0.1
Turkey 5.9 5.6 6.1 7.2 7.1 1.2
United States 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.7 5.7 −0.9
Netherlands 3.5 3.6 3.1 3.3 3.8 0.3
China 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.4 3.4 0.7
France 4.1 3.8 2.9 4.3 3.1 −0.9
Australia 1.6 1.6 2.6 3.2 2.9 1.3
Ukraine 5.3 4.9 5.4 3.3 2.8 −2.6
Saudi Arabia 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 0.0
Canada (20th) 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 0.3

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*Percent Point change: difference between 2023 and 2019 values

Canada's agri-food and seafood supply gap, in Can$ million
Category 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Imports from the World 164,359 164,662 178,069 204,121 182,388 2.6
Imports from Canada 2,634 3,457 3,599 3,587 3,470 7.1
Supply Gap 161,725 161,205 174,470 200,534 178,918 2.6

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

MENA's top fifteen agri-food and seafood imports from the world, Can$ million
HS Code Description 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Total imports 164,359.0 164,661.6 178,068.7 204,121.0 182,176.1 2.6
100590 Corn 9,690.0 9,197.3 10,269.5 12,260.5 8,533.8 −3.1
100199 Wheat and meslin 12,752.8 14,728.7 16,074.1 14,184.6 7,982.9 −11.1
100630 Milled rice 8,292.1 7,251.4 5,900.5 8,137.9 7,934.4 −1.1
120190 Soybeans 5,138.0 5,902.5 7,215.4 9,532.4 6,826.7 7.4
170114 Raw cane sugar 3,264.4 3,770.6 3,880.7 5,894.2 6,260.4 17.7
151190 Palm oil 2,905.1 3,449.2 5,641.9 7,576.3 5,169.2 15.5
210690 Food preparations 3,210.8 3,461.4 3,787.2 4,407.6 4,374.3 8.0
020230 Frozen beef 3,612.2 3,068.7 3,782.4 3,884.8 3,794.5 1.2
230400 Oilcake 3,207.7 2,297.2 2,501.1 3,028.3 3,694.4 3.6
020712 Frozen poultry 2,560.7 2,338.6 2,704.4 3,365.3 3,049.6 4.5
020714 Frozen edible poultry offal 2,092.2 1,655.5 2,060.4 2,826.2 2,790.7 7.5
040221 Skim milk powder 2,261.0 2,451.5 2,348.3 2,953.9 2,550.4 3.1
240220 Tobacco cigarettes 2,400.5 2,490.5 1,928.4 2,405.0 2,459.9 0.6
010229 Live cattle 1,737.2 1,615.3 1,331.6 1,696.9 2,248.6 6.7
090111 Coffee 1,208.9 1,331.0 1,498.7 2,104.0 2,219.0 16.4

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Top agri-food and seafood imports

1. Corn (HS 100590)

MENA's top ten suppliers of corn, Can$ million
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
World 9,690 9,197 10,270 12,261 8,534 −3.1
Brazil 2,817 2,608 2,296 5,497 3,573 6.1
Argentina 2,546 2,909 2,899 3,357 2,282 −2.7
Ukraine 2,460 2,145 2,429 1,455 938 −21.4
Turkey 175 94 109 224 731 43.0
Romania 712 564 1,053 663 521 −7.5
United States 193 442 931 591 352 16.2
South Africa 9 10 17 25 30 36.0
Spain 12 16 11 19 27 23.4
Moldova 49 33 56 150 25 −15.9
India 9 6 28 13 19 21.6
Canada (25th) 23,057 40,564 15.2

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

MENA's top ten suppliers of corn, % share
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Percent Point* change 2019-2023
Brazil 29.1 28.4 22.4 44.8 41.9 12.8
Argentina 26.3 31.6 28.2 27.4 26.7 0.5
Ukraine 25.4 23.3 23.7 11.9 11.0 −14.4
Turkey 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.8 8.6 6.8
Romania 7.4 6.1 10.3 5.4 6.1 −1.3
United States 2.0 4.8 9.1 4.8 4.1 2.1
South Africa 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3
Spain 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Moldova 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.3 −0.2
India 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
Canada (25th) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*Percent Point change: difference between 2023 and 2019 values

Canada's corn gap to MENA, Can$ million
Category 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Imports from the World 9,690.0 9,197 10,270 12,261 8,534 −3.1
Canada 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 7.3
Supply Gap 9,666 9,197 10,270 12,261 8,493 −3.2

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

2. Wheat and meslin (HS100199)

MENA's top ten suppliers of Wheat and meslin, Can$ million
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
World 12,753 14,729 16,074 14,185 7,983 −11.1
Romania 779 705 1,315 1,851 1,621 20.1
Australia 511 550 890 1,121 1,456 29.9
Ukraine 2,281 2,311 3,350 1,640 1,129 −16.1
France 2,002 1,992 1,293 3,510 1,116 −13.6
Bulgaria 217 217 452 1,070 849 40.6
Germany 277 988 988 1,095 538 18.1
United States 834 305 362 524 334 −20.5
Canada 209 127 121 167 212 0.3
Lithuania 357 387 67 237 162 −18.0
Poland 265 716 738 227 132 −15.9

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

MENA's top ten suppliers of Wheat and meslin, % share
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Percent Point* change 2019-2023
Romania 6.1 4.8 8.2 13.1 20.3 14.2
Australia 4.0 3.7 5.5 7.9 18.2 14.2
Ukraine 17.9 15.7 20.8 11.6 14.1 −3.8
France 15.7 13.5 8.1 24.7 14.0 −1.7
Bulgaria 1.7 1.5 2.8 7.6 10.6 8.9
Germany 2.2 6.7 6.2 7.7 6.7 4.6
United States 6.5 2.1 2.3 3.7 4.2 −2.4
Canada 1.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 2.7 1.0
Lithuania 2.8 2.6 0.4 1.7 2.0 −0.8
Poland 2.1 4.9 4.6 1.6 1.7 −0.4

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*Percent Point change: difference between 2023 and 2019 values

Canada's Wheat and meslin supply gap to MENA, Can$ million
Category 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Imports from the World 12,753 14,729 16,074 14,185 7,983 −11.1
Imports from Canada 209 127 121 167 212 0.3
Supply gap 12,544 14,602 15,953 14,018 7,771 −11.3

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

3. Soybeans (HS120190)

MENA's top ten suppliers of soybeans, Can$ million
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
World 5,138 5,902 7,215 9,532 6,827 7.4
Brazil 1,639 1,859 2,851 4,745 4,522 28.9
United States 1,647 2,546 2,567 3,489 1,028 −11.1
Ukraine 1,000 405 249 431 680 −9.2
Canada 350 590 752 661 493 9.0
Uruguay 95 218 356 160 33 −22.9
Romania 40 12 3 17 23 −12.5
Ethiopia 5 11 6 4 15 33.0
Moldova 6 5 0 4 14 25.0
Nigeria 0 0 0 1 9 495.3
Ghana 2 2 8 5 5 21.8

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

MENA's top ten suppliers of soybeans, % share
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Percent Point* change 2019-2023
Brazil 31.9 31.5 39.5 49.8 66.2 34.3
United States 32.1 43.1 35.6 36.6 15.1 −17.0
Ukraine 19.5 6.9 3.5 4.5 9.9 −9.5
Canada 6.8 10.0 10.4 6.9 7.2 0.4
Uruguay 1.8 3.7 4.9 1.7 0.5 −1.4
Romania 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 −0.4
Ethiopia 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1
Moldova 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
Nigeria 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Ghana 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*Percent Point change: difference between 2023 and 2019 values

Canada's soybean supply gap to MENA, Can$ million
Category 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Imports from the World 5,138 5,902 7,215 9,532 6,827 7.4
Imports from Canada 32.8 4.4 29.6 109.5 71.9 21.6
Supply gap 4,788 5,312 6,463 8,871 6,334 7.2

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

4. Food preparations (HS210690)

MENA's top ten suppliers of food preparations, Can$ million
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
World 3,211 3,461 3,787 4,408 4,383 8.1
Netherlands 310 356 347 412 394 6.2
Germany 328 350 343 388 386 4.2
France 216 214 259 235 289 7.5
Italy 194 195 238 285 278 9.4
United States 256 220 261 295 264 0.7
Poland 98 122 170 236 244 25.8
Turkey 143 161 152 184 206 9.6
United Kingdom 197 183 192 206 200 0.3
Spain 131 162 192 226 187 9.3
Malaysia 95 99 110 184 186 18.1
Canada (27th) 22 23 28 33 25 3.3

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

MENA's top ten suppliers of food preparations, % share
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Percent Point* change 2019-2023
Netherlands 9.7 10.3 9.2 9.4 9.0 −0.7
Germany 10.2 10.1 9.1 8.8 8.8 −1.4
France 6.7 6.2 6.8 5.3 6.6 −0.1
Italy 6.0 5.6 6.3 6.5 6.4 0.3
United States 8.0 6.4 6.9 6.7 6.0 −2.0
Poland 3.0 3.5 4.5 5.4 5.6 2.6
Turkey 4.4 4.7 4.0 4.2 4.7 0.3
United Kingdom 6.2 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.6 −1.6
Spain 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.1 4.3 0.2
Malaysia 3.0 2.9 2.9 4.2 4.3 1.3
Canada (27th) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 −0.1

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*Percent Point change: difference between 2023 and 2019 values

Canada's food preparations supply gap, Can$ million
Category 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Imports from the World 3,211 3,461 3,787 4,408 4,383 8.1
Imports from Canada 22 23 28 33 25 3.3
Supply gap 3,189 3,438 3,759 4,375 4,358 8.1

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

5. Frozen beef (HS020230)

MENA's top ten suppliers of frozen beef,Can$ million
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
World 3,612 3,069 3,782 3,885 3,794 1.2
India 1,096 1,043 1,637 1,533 1,685 11.4
Brazil 1,730 1,168 1,130 1,293 1,314 −6.6
Argentina 150 176 199 215 171 3.3
Paraguay 172 201 205 199 135 −5.8
Australia 116 114 156 179 132 3.3
United States 106 82 105 142 79 −7.0
Uruguay 39 70 108 100 78 18.8
Poland 61 51 52 52 38 −11.2
New Zealand 24 14 18 21 29 4.8
Spain 19 13 17 29 27 8.8
Canada (17th) 3 3 6 8 10 33.5

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

MENA's top ten suppliers of frozen beef, % share
Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Percent Point* change 2019-2023
India 30.3 34.0 43.3 39.5 44.4 14.1
Brazil 47.9 38.1 29.9 33.3 34.6 −13.3
Argentina 4.2 5.7 5.3 5.5 4.5 0.4
Paraguay 4.8 6.5 5.4 5.1 3.6 −1.2
Australia 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.6 3.5 0.3
United States 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.7 2.1 −0.8
Uruguay 1.1 2.3 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.0
Poland 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 −0.7
New Zealand 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.1
Spain 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2
Canada (17th) 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*Percent Point change: difference between 2023 and 2019 values

Canada's frozen beef supply gap, Can$ million
Category 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR* % 2019-2023
Imports from the World 3,612 3,069 3,782 3,885 3,794 1.2
Imports from Canada 3 3 6 8 10 33.5
Supply gap 3,609 3,066 3,776 3,877 3,784 1.2

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024

*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

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Resources

  • Global Trade Tracker, 2024

Competitive Trade Analysis – Agri-food and seafood trends in the Middle East and North Africa
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Kris Clipsham, Market analyst

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