Consumer Profile – United States

Key demographic indicators

The current population of the United States (the US) is 345,426,571 based on Worldometer. GDP in the US is expected to reach 27.78 USD trillion by the end of 2024, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. It makes the US the major global economy and richest country in the world.

The 80 to 84 age group is recording the fastest growth (compound annual growth rate - CAGR 18.5% from 2015 to 2040) among all age groups in the US and will represent 3.7% of the total population in 2040. The 5 to 9 age group records a lowest growth (−2.1% from 2015 to 2040). Population growth in 2020 to 2040 will be driven by 30 to 34 group at a CAGR of 1.9%, 35 to 39 group at same CAGR of 2.9%, 40 to 44 group at a CAGR of 2.5%, 45 to 49 group at a CAGR of 2.2%, 50 to 54 group at a CAGR of 0.1%, 65 to 69 group at a CAGR of 2.3%, 70 to 74 group at a CAGR of 8.8%, 75 to 79 group at a CAGR of 15.7%, 80 to 84 group at a CAGR of 18.5%, 85 to 89 group at a CAGR of 17.5% and and 90+ age group at a CAGR of 16.2% from 2015 to 2040.

From 2015 to 2040, population decline in younger age mostly: 0 to 4 at a CAGR of −1.6%, 5 to 9 at a CAGR of −2.1%, 10 to 14 at −1.8%, 15 to 19 at a CAGR of −1.9%, 20 to 24 at a CAGR of −1.6%, 25 to 29 at a CAGR of −0.1%, 55 to 59 at a CAGR of −0.6%.

The United States' vital statistics

In the US, the fertility rate was 1.6 children per female in 2020. It will continue to remain the same at 1.6 children per female up to 2040. Women giving birth to children later in life, from age 29.2 in 2020, and is forecast to increase at age 30.8 in 2040. Infant death declines from 23,455 in 2015 to 1,2,660 in 2040. Birth rate per '000 population also decreases from 12.4 per '000 population in 2015 to 10.2 per '000 population in 2040. Live birth decreases too from 3,978.5 thousand in 2015 to 3,588.7 thousand in 2040. However both death rates per '000 population and deaths (000) increase from 2015 to 2040.

Household structure in the United States

The average US household in 2023 was home to 2.5 people. The biggest household has the number of 2 persons, followed by 3, 4, 5, and 6 persons. The biggest households contain 1 child, followed by 2 children households, 3 children households, 4 children and more children households in 2023.

Number of households by type

The primary household type was single person, with a CAGR growth of 0.7% from 2019 to 2023, reaching 37.5 million in 2023. Couples without children, couple with children, and single-parent family are the three house types in descending numbers with 0.6%, 0.1% and 0.5% CAGR respectively from 2019 to 2023. "Other" increases at a CAGR of 0.8%, from 20.4 million in 2019 to 21.1 million in 2023.

Population in urban and rural area

There were 274.1 million Americans living in urban area while there were 57.5 million living in rural area in 2020. The population in urban will gradually increase from 2020 to 2040 while the population in rural will decrease. In 2040, the urban population will increase to 307.5 million while rural population will reduce to 45.4 million.

Population by foreign citizens, migration, refugee and natural change

In 2023, there were 22,607,900 foreign citizens, 858,600 net migration, 2.6% net migration rate per '000 population, 2,584,600 refugees and asylum seekers, 504,000 natural change and 1.5% rate of natural change per '000 population.

Business environment and dynamics

Age 50 to 54 was the age group that earned the most, US$135,624.0 in 2023 while age 15 to 19 was the group that earned the least, US$23,821.1. All age groups grew at the same CAGR of 5.8% from 2019 to 2023. Age 45 to 49 group earned the second most at US$134.049.1 followed by 40 to 44 age group at US$131.383. Age 60 to 64 still worked and earned more than age 20 to 24 group. All the age group earnings increased at a is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.2% between 2023 and 2028.

It is interesting to note that starting from the smallest disposable income at US$500 to the households with a disposable income over US$300,000, the CAGR growth gradually increased from CARG 0.5% to CAGR 13.6% in a ascending order between 2019 and 2023.

However, between 2024 and 2028, starting from the smallest disposable income at US$500 to the biggest disposable income US$300,000, the CAGR growth gradually increase from 0.7% to 8.9% in an ascending order.

In 2023, the US's disposable income per capita for male was US$67,119.9 and for female was US&53,638.9. Urban disposable income in 2023 was US$16,617.1 billion while rural was US$3,581.8 billion.

Food and beverage preferences and expenditures

In 2023, the US's total consumer expenditure on food and non-alcoholic was US$1,220.7 billion, of which US$1,082.4 billion was spent on food. Expenditure on meat was the largest category, with expenditure of US$233.8 billion in 2023, followed by bread and cereals at US$196.0 billion in 2023 and milk, cheese and eggs at US$117.8 billion in 2023.

Consumer expenditure on food and non-alcoholic beverages is expected to grow by a CAGR of 3.5% from 2023 to 2028. Bread and cereals, oils and fats, all two are forecast to grow the fastest at a CAGR of same 4.0%, between 2023 and 2028, reaching US$237.9 billion, and US$35.7 billion respectively in 2023. All subcategories are expected to grow steadily at a CAGR of above 2.5% to 4.0%.

Expenditure on wine reached the fastest CAGR of 4.5%, followed by spirits and beer both at the CAGR of 3.7% in the expenditure on alcoholic beverages and tobacco category between 2023 and 2028.

Per capita consumer expenditure on food and non-alcohol beverages increased at a CAGR of 6.9% from 2019-2023. All subcategories increased at CAGR from 6.6% to 8.3% in 2023 in food and non-beverages category.

In 2023, total consumer expenditure on food and beverages per capita was US$3,644.9, out of which US$3,231.9 was spent on food, US$400 on non-alcoholic beverages, US$1,019.3 was spent on alcoholic on alcoholic and tabaco.

From 2023-2028, growth in per capita expenditure on food and non-alcoholic beverages is expected to rise to a CAGR of 3.1%, with all subcategories seeing similar positive growth rates varying from 2.1% to 3.6%.

Consumer trends

Increased interest in health and wellness

The health and wellness industry continues to gain greater significance overall, particularly in the wake of the pandemic, as consumers have become more cognisant of the negative impact of processed food and a range of drinks on their health and wellbeing. The virus disproportionately affected those with underlying health conditions, such as obesity and diabetes, making people more conscious of the need to take care of their health and boost their overall immunity. As a result, people are increasingly seeking out healthier food and beverage options that make a range of claims, including natural, organic, good source of minerals/vitamins, no sugar/no added sugar (especially in beverages), low fat, and high protein/fibre (Euromonitor 2024).

Manufacturers are leveraging fortified/functional foods and beverages as a primary tool for premiumisation, particularly in view of the wider global cost of living crisis. Additionally, there is a growing trend for products marketed towards specific consumer needs, such as energy-boosting products, as manufacturers respond to consumer demands for products that benefit both the body and mind (Euromonitor 2024).

Opportunities for Canada

The benefits of Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)

On November 30, 2018, Canada, the United States, and Mexico signed an agreement to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). This new agreement will reinforce the strong economic ties between the three countries and support well-paying middle-class jobs for Canadians. Subsequently, on December 10, 2019, Canada, the United States and Mexico agreed to update certain elements of CUSMA to improve the final outcome and clear the path toward ratification and implementation of the agreement in all three countries.

CUSMA will maintain the tariff-free market access from NAFTA, and includes updates and new chapters to address modern-day trade challenges and opportunities. Since negotiations began in August 2017, Canada engaged constructively and pragmatically with our NAFTA partners to achieve a good deal for Canadians.

The agreement provides key outcomes for Canadian businesses, workers and communities in areas such as labour, environment, automotive trade, dispute resolution, culture, energy, and agriculture and agri-food. Importantly, CUSMA also includes language on gender and Indigenous peoples' rights.

Facilitating trade in goods

NAFTA eliminated virtually all tariffs between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, with very few exceptions. CUSMA maintains these benefits and ensures that the vast majority of North American trade will continue to be duty-free. Additionally, a new chapter on customs administration and trade facilitation standardizes and modernizes customs procedures throughout North America to facilitate the free-flow of goods. There are also important improvements to disciplines on technical barriers to trade that will make it easier for Canadian businesses to export goods within the CUSMA region.

As a result of this agreement, Canada agreed to have de minimis thresholds for express courier import shipments of Can$150 for duties and Can$40 for taxes at the point or time of importation.

Agriculture

CUSMA will preserve existing agriculture commitments between Canada, the US and Mexico, and help bring together an already highly integrated North American industry. Canada secured a number of beneficial outcomes for agriculture including:

• New market access in the form of tariff rate quotas for refined sugar and sugar-containing products, as well as certain dairy products;
• A modernized Committee on Agriculture Trade, which will provide a forum for Parties to address issues and trade barriers; and,
• Obligations for agricultural biotechnology that will increase innovation, transparency and predictability

The Government defended the supply management system from strong U.S. attempts to see it dismantled. As part of the overall balance of the Agreement, Canada will:

• Provide new market access for the US in the form of tariff rate quotas for dairy, poultry and egg products;
• Eliminate current milk classes 6 and 7, and calculate component prices for skim milk powder, milk protein concentrates and infant formula based on a US reference price; and
• Establish a mechanism to monitor exports of skim milk powder, milk protein concentrates and infant formula. These products will be subject to surcharges if exports exceed an agreed threshold. (Government of Canada: Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), 2020)

For more information

The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service:

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

Find a Trade Commissioner

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Resources

• Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)
• Euromonitor, 2024
• Euromonitor 2024, Health and Wellness in the US, Country Report | August 2024
• Trading Economics, 2024
• Worldometer 2024

Consumer Profile – United States
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Hongli Wang, Market Analyst

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