Customized Report Service – Frozen baked goods in China

Retail environment and trends

Frozen baked goods are sold in China. However, tracking sales data for frozen baked goods is difficult, and Euromonitor International does not separately measure frozen product sales in China. These appear to have a much smaller market share than other baked goods in China, and they may therefore be captured in the sales statistics for these products.

Normally, frozen bakery products would all be included in Frozen baked goods, except for frozen cakes, tarts and pies, which are included in dessert pies and tarts. Neither category is calculated for China in Euromonitor Passport.

Overall, baked goods grew at 5% CAGR in China from 2017 to 2022, with growth being evenly distributed between bread, cakes and pastries. Cakes and pastries are the two leading categories, each representing about 40% of the total baked goods market. Dessert mixes, which represent a small sliver of the baked goods market, fell slightly, from US$436.8 million to US$413.5 million. This market segment is expected to recover through 2027, which means that over the 10 year period from 2017 to 2027, dessert mixes will essentially have stagnated.

Baked goods are forecasted to grow at 6% CAGR through 2027. Growth is forecasted to be distributed between the three market categories, but cakes will be the biggest drivers of growth, with 7.1% forecasted CAGR. As such, the gap between cakes and pastries will grow from less than US$2 million to over US$4 million.

Volume sales of baked goods grew more slowly than value sales in China. This indicates that retail sales growth is driven by added value.

The Chinese baked goods market is characterized by low market concentration. In 2022, over 70% of packaged baked goods in China were produced by artisanal companies. A further 4.6% of products were manufactured for private labels. The largest baked goods company, the Fujian Dali Food Co, had a 3.9% market share. The next-largest company is the Shenyang Toly Bread Co, at 3.4%. No other company holds even a 2% market share.

The largest foreign company operating in the Chinese baked goods sector is the Korean Orion Group, which has a market share slightly above 1%. Market penetration by foreign companies remains low. Other notable foreign companies include Grupo Bimbo, Nestlé SA, and Lotte.

The leading baked goods brands in China are Daliyuan, a brand of packaged sweet pastry products, and Toly (or Taoli), which sells a variety of products.

Per capita expenditure on bakery products remains low. This is likely due to a large denominator, as much of China's population outside of major cities may not be purchasing packaged products with regularity. Sweet bakery products are the most popular category among consumers, followed by cookies and crackers. Packaged bread and bread product expenditures are very low.

The retail value of bakery product sales in China is increasing across all categories. Growth was fastest for biscuits, and this is forecasted to hold through 2025.

Structural barriers and opportunities

Frozen baked goods are primarily sold in China's largest and most important cities. Nationwide, supply chain issues, particularly due to a lack of cold chain infrastructure, have limited the growth of frozen baked good sales. Delivery costs are high, and prices are high as a result. Nonetheless, the market is growing. International companies such as Mondelez have launched products such as ice cream cakes that are gaining popularity^Footnote1. Local and international suppliers are investing in their cold chain infrastructure.

China manufactures frozen baked goods for export. Asian grocery stores in North America and Europe will typically feature goods such as frozen mantou buns and frozen scallion pancakes. While some of these originate in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong or locally, others are manufactured in China^Footnote2.

China instituted widespread lockdowns due to Omicron. This has had a significant negative impact on retail chains, including traditional Chinese pastry chains that primarily sell fresh products^Footnote1.

New product launch analysis

Between 2018 and 2022, Mintel's Global New Product Database tracked 394 new product launches^Footnote3. 67% of these new products were launched in the last two years. These represented slightly less than 5% of all tracked bakery product launches in China over this period (7,980 total).

Description of above image

	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	Total sample
Number of new products	30	35	66	126	137	394

Source: Mintel GNPD, 2023, all rights reserved

The two largest categories for frozen bakery products were cakes, pastries & sweet goods (223 new product launches) and bread & bread products (137 new product launches). Sweet biscuits & cookies and baking ingredients & mixes featured 16 new launches each, and 2 new savoury biscuits & crackers were launched, rounding out new product launches.

Examples of new product launches

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Resources

• Euromonitor International, 2023
• Euromonitor | November 2022. Baked Goods in China
• Mintel Global New Products Database, 2023
• Mintel Market Sizes, 2023

Customized Report Service – Frozen baked goods in China
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Alexandre Holm Perrault, Market Analyst

© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2023).

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