Market Overview – Indonesia

Country profile

As the fourth most populous country in the world and the largest in the ASEAN region, with a population of 270 million, Indonesia is made up of a diverse network of islands where 60% of the population is on Java, one of the most densely populated areas in the world. The island of Sumatra contains some of the most significant population clusters as well, particularly in the south near Selat Sunda and along the northeastern coast near Medan. The cities of Makassar (Sulawesi), Banjarmasin (Kalimantan) are also heavily populated.

Indonesia is the largest economy in Southeast Asia with a GDP of IDR20,892.4 trillion (US$ 1.3 trillion) in 2023, growing by 5%^{Footnote 1}. The country is young with a median age of 31.5. Over 65s currently make up 8.0% of the population.

Production

In 2022, oil palm fruit was Indonesia's largest crop at a total of 256.8 million tonnes. Pineapple production grew fastest from 2018 to 2022, rising at a CAGR of 12.7%, far above the growth rates of any of Indonesia's other top ten crops. Rice, sugar cane, and corn were the next most produced crops, with 54.7, 32.4, and 23.6 million tonnes produced in 2022 respectively. Corn saw the largest decrease in production over 2018 to 2022 falling by 13.5% annually.^{Footnote 2}

In 2022, chicken was Indonesia's most produced meat at 4.0 million tonnes, growing at a CAGR of 1.3% from 2018-2022. The next most produced meat was cattle, at 0.5 million tonnes in 2022, while the next fastest growing meat was pork, which grew at a CAGR of 5.0% from 2018 to 2022.

Chicken production dominated Indonesian livestock production in 2020, with live chickens totalling 3.6 billion heads for the year, up from 2.1 billion in 2016. Total production of chickens grew at a CAGR of 14.3% from 2016-2020. The next most produced livestock was ducks at 58.2 million heads in 2020.

Trade

In 2023, Indonesia was a net exporter of agri-food and seafood goods, exporting Can$65.0 billion and importing Can$37.9 billion, with a trade surplus of Can$27.1 billion. Indonesia's top import was wheat and meslin, for which Canada was Indonesia's second largest supplier. Indonesia's next largest agri-food and seafood imports were oilcakes, raw can sugar, milled rice, and soybeans. Canada is Indonesia's second largest source of aoybeans, with imports from Canada making up 12.1% of total imports.

The top five supplies of agri-food and seafood products to Indonesia in 2023 were Brazil (13.7%), Australia (13.0%), China (11.6%), and the U.S. (11.4%). Indonesia imported a total of Can$37.9 billion worth agri-food and seafood products in 2023, increasing by a CAGR of 9.0% between 2019 to 2023.

Canada was Indonesia's eighth largest supplier of agri-food and seafood products in 2023, importing Can$1.6 billion in 2023, accounting for 4.3% of the market. Indonesia exported Can$0.5 billion worth of agriculture and agri-food products to Canada in 2023, meaning Canada had a trade surplus of Can$1.5 billion for the year.

Agri-food and seafood imports from Canada were dominated by wheat and meslin, worth Can$1.3 billion in 2023, accounting for 78.2% of total Canadian agri-food and seafood imports. Wheat and meslin omports from Canada have grown by a CAGR of 8.2% from 2019 to 2023.

Indonesia's next largest import from Canada was soybeans, with a value of Can$241.5 million in 2023. Largest imports from Canada in 2023 with high growth are soybeans (36.4%), animal feed (63.0%), and potatoes (87.4%).

Processed food

Indonesian imports of processed food totalled Can$21.6 billion in 2023, up from Can$13.2 billion in 2018. Indonesian imports of processed foods grew at a CAGR of 13.0% from 2019 to 2023, with the top imports being oilcakes, raw cane sugar, milled rice, frozen bovine meat, and food preparations.

In 2023, Indonesia's largest suppliers of processed food and beverages were Brazil (Can$3.9 billion), Thailand (Can$3.4 billion), U.S. (Can$1.9 billion), and Australia (Can$1.7 billion). Collectively, these four countries held 51.2% of the market. Canada was the twenty second largest supplier of processed food and beverages to Indonesia in 2023 at Can$88.2 million in 2023, which grew by a CAGR of 0.4% over 2019 to 2023.

Packaged food retail sales

In 2023, Indonesia saw a total of US$41.6 billion of packaged food retail sales, rising by a CAGR of 8.4% over 2019 to 2023. Sales are expected to grow 9.7% over 2024 to 2028, reaching US$66.1 billion in 2028.

The largest category of packaged foods was rice, pasta, and noodles with US$14.8 billion in sales, followed by dairy, baked goods, and processed meat. Processed meat is the largest category forecast to see the fastest growth over 2024 to 2028 at a CAGR of 15.3%, followed by sweet biscuits (12.7%), and dairy (12.5%).

Foodservice

Consumer foodservice sales reached US$30.2 billion in 2023, falling 5.9% annually over 2019 to 2023, indicating the sector has still not recovered to pre-pandemic (2019) sales. Foodservice sales are expected to surpass pre-pandemic sales over 2024 to 2028 to increase by a CAGR of 7.9% to US$45.5 billion. Cafes/bars are expected to lead in terms of forecast growth by a CAGR of 9.0%, followed by street stalls/kiosks (8.1%), and full service restaurants (7.9%) with all three exceeding pre-pandemic sales.

For more information

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Resources

• Euromonitor International, Passport statistics, 2024
• Global Trade Tracker, 2024

Market Overview – Indonesia
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Kris Clipsham, Market Analyst

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