Market Overview – United States

Country profile

Economy

In 2023, the U.S. economy grew by 2.5%, outperforming other developed economies, driven by strong public consumption, job growth, and rising wages, but it is expected to slow to 1.5% in 2024 due to tighter fiscal and monetary policies and risks like geopolitical tensions and election uncertainty. Inflation eased from 8.0% in 2022 to 4.1% in 2023, with predictions of further decline to 2.7% in 2024. Despite a large budget deficit and rising public debt, slight fiscal improvements are anticipated in 2024, though rising interest payments and social security costs will remain challenges. Global stagflation risks could also weigh on future economic growth ( Euromonitor International, 2024).

Demographics

By 2040, the U.S. population is projected to reach 361 million, driven by positive net migration and natural growth, making it the third-largest globally, behind India and China. Real per capita income is expected to rise by 24%, surpassing US$ 100,000, which will enhance purchasing power and drive growth in the luxury market. Despite rising inequality, the U.S. will remain a key global consumer market. Positive net migration, along with significant diversity, will create business opportunities for culturally specific food and drink products (Euromonitor International, 2024).

Consumers

Shifting dietary habits reflect consumer health concerns. In 2023, 19% of U.S. consumers were actively dieting, and 49% sought healthy ingredients in food and beverages. Additionally, 40% of consumers reported closely reading nutrition labels. Efforts to reduce meat consumption are also growing, with 19% attempting to cut back and 10% now eating meat only occasionally, driven by health, economic, and sustainability concerns. Inflation has led 29% of respondents to opt for private-label and low-cost products. Additionally, 77% of Americans cook or bake at home weekly, with many relying on reheated or ready meals for convenience. However, convenience remains appealing, as 35% regularly order food for home delivery and 44% choose takeaway options. Snacking habits have evolved, with 17% occasionally replacing meals with snacks and 24% snacking at work, particularly among younger, health-conscious generations. Interest in plant-based foods continues to rise, with 19% opting for environmentally friendly options and 25% willing to pay more for products with added health benefits, signaling a shift toward healthier, more sustainable diets (Euromonitor International, 2024).

By 2040, the U.S. consumer landscape is expected to shift significantly towards households without children, influenced by declining fertility rates and an aging population, with the average consumer age rising to approximately 42.7 years (Euromonitor International, 2024). Generation Z will emerge as the dominant demographic, comprising nearly a quarter of the population. According to Euromonitor's Voice of the Consumer: Lifestyles Survey 2023, nearly half of American consumers are actively seeking bargains, showing a lower inclination towards prominent or niche brands compared to the global average. Despite challenges for the middle class amid rising costs, the U.S. remains a prime market for luxury spending. However, growing income inequality means the lower-income class constitutes the majority of consumers, highlighting their importance in the market. Sun Belt states like Texas and South Carolina are attracting populations due to strong economies, favorable tax policies, and affordable living, while high living costs and property taxes, along with the rise of remote work, are causing residents to leave cities like Chicago (Euromonitor International, 2023).

Production

The U.S. crop production data from 2018 to 2022 shows mixed trends across the top 20 primary crops. Maize (corn) remained the highest-produced crop in 2022, averaging around 360 million tonnes annually, despite a slight decline with a CAGR of −1.1%. Soya beans also held strong but experienced a minor drop in CAGR (−0.9%). Wheat production consistently decreased (−3.3%), while sorghum had the sharpest decline with a −15.3% CAGR. Other notable decreases include rice (−8.0%), tomatoes (−5.2%), and seed cotton (−6.5%). Conversely, crops like barley (3.2%), almonds (1.9%), and rape seed (1.5%) saw positive growth. Meanwhile, potatoes (−3.4%) and grapes (−6.0%) faced moderate declines. Overall, while maize and soya beans continue to dominate U.S. agriculture, several crops, particularly grains and vegetables, are showing declining production, hinting at potential market shifts or environmental challenges.

In 2022, U.S. livestock production was led by raw milk from cattle, which reached 102.7 million tonnes, showing steady growth with a 1.0% CAGR from 2018 to 2022. Chicken meat followed as the second largest category, maintaining a stable production level at 19.6 million tonnes, reflecting no significant change over the period. Cattle meat production increased slightly (1.3% CAGR) to 12.9 million tonnes, while pig meat also grew modestly (0.6% CAGR) to 12.3 million tonnes. Other products like pig fat and cattle fat experienced marginal growth, with a 0.6% and 1.3% CAGR, respectively. In contrast, turkey meat saw a decline with a −2.9% CAGR, falling to 2.4 million tonnes. Raw hides and skins of cattle, along with edible offal from both pigs and cattle, remained consistent, with minimal growth in production during this period.

Trade

In 2023, the U.S. agri-food and seafood export market saw a total value of $177.3 billion, with a 5.1% CAGR from 2019 to 2023. Canada, Mexico, and China were the top three markets, accounting for $29.8 billion, $28.2 billion, and $28.8 billion respectively. While China recorded the highest CAGR at 19.3%, Japan and South Korea experienced slight declines in export value, with CAGRs of −0.4% and −1.0% respectively. Colombia and Mexico also saw strong growth, with Mexico achieving a notable 10.0% CAGR over the period. Despite fluctuations in other markets, the overall U.S. export performance remained robust.

In 2023, the U.S. agri-food and seafood imports reached $227.3 billion, marking a 7.8% CAGR from 2019 to 2023. Mexico and Canada were the largest suppliers, with imports totaling $47.2 billion and $44.2 billion respectively, and strong CAGRs of 10.3% and 11.9%. Italy, Chile, and France were key European and South American suppliers, while Brazil demonstrated robust growth with an 11.2% CAGR. Although France and India had modest growth, with CAGRs of 0.5% and 1.4%, Indonesia saw a rise in imports at a 9.4% CAGR. Overall, U.S. imports of agri-food and seafood continued to grow strongly across various regions.

In 2023, the total value of agri-food and seafood imports to the U.S. reached $227.28 billion, with Mexico and Canada being the dominant suppliers, holding market shares of 20.8% and 19.4%, respectively. Among the top imports, bakery products ranked highly, with an import value of $7.09 billion, primarily sourced from Canada (53.3% market share), followed closely by beer made from malt at $7.14 billion, predominantly supplied by Mexico (81.3%). Other significant imports included food preparations ($6.82 billion, led by Singapore), coffee ($5.67 billion, primarily from Brazil), and frozen shrimp and prawns ($4.90 billion, mainly from India). Canada excelled in specific categories, providing 50.7% of fresh or chilled bovine meat and a dominant 97.6% of low erucic acid rape or colza oil. Despite facing competition in other categories, Canada's significant market shares in bakery products and meat reflect its strategic role in the U.S. agri-food import landscape.

Canada's performance

In 2023, Canada's agri-food and seafood exports to the U.S. totaled US$59.5 billion, with Ontario as the leading supplier, providing 36.2% of the total. Bakery products emerged as a significant category, valued at US$5.1 billion, predominantly sourced from Ontario (78.9%), while Saskatchewan excelled in canola oil exports, contributing 55.6% of the US$4.6 billion total. Fresh or chilled bovine meat exports reached US$3.0 billion, with Alberta supplying 80.4% of this category. Frozen prepared potatoes totaled US$2.2 billion, mainly supplied by Alberta (29.1%), Manitoba (28.1%), and Prince Edward Island (27.3%). Canola oilcake exports stood at US$2.0 billion, led by Saskatchewan (36.9%), with Alberta and Manitoba also significant contributors. Crude canola oil exports were dominated by Alberta (66.3%), while live cattle exports reached US$1.7 billion, with Alberta again leading at 58.5%. Other notable categories included food preparations at US$1.4 billion, with Ontario holding a 46.0% share, and frozen crabs, valued at US$1.1 billion, primarily sourced from Newfoundland and Labrador (53.9%). Chocolate and cocoa preparations amounted to US$0.9 billion, with Ontario supplying 72.2%.

Retail sales

From 2019 to 2023, U.S. packaged food retail sales grew from US$417.1 billion to US$579.2 billion, with a strong 8.6% CAGR, and are forecasted to reach US$722.8 billion by 2028, growing at 4.5% CAGR. Among key categories, staple foods saw a significant rise from US$138.5 billion to US$202.2 billion at 9.9% CAGR, with a slower projected growth of 4.9% CAGR to US$256.5 billion by 2028. Snacks, a major category, grew from US$124.4 billion to US$170.5 billion at 8.2% CAGR, expected to reach US$217.9 billion by 2028 at 5.0% CAGR. Within snacks, savoury snacks led the growth with 8.9% CAGR, while confectionery saw 9.0% CAGR growth. Cooking ingredients and meals increased from US$79.8 billion to US$109.2 billion at 8.1% CAGR, with a projected 4.0% CAGR to US$132.9 billion.

Between 2019 and 2023, U.S. packaged drinks retail sales grew with a CAGR of 8.2%, rising from US$253.8 billion to US$347.5 billion. Alcoholic drinks saw a robust CAGR of 8.0%, driven by categories like ready-to-drink (RTDs), which experienced significant growth at 30.1%. Hot drinks expanded at 7.3%, while soft drinks led the overall market with an 8.5% CAGR, boosted by bottled water (8.1%) and carbonates (9.5%). Looking ahead to 2028, the growth rate moderates, with total packaged drinks forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 4.0%, reaching US$423.3 billion. RTDs will remain strong, though at a slower pace of 10.6%, while beer, cider, tea, and juice will see more modest gains.

Health and wellness

The U.S. health and wellness retail market experienced strong growth from 2019 to 2023, with a CAGR of 8.9%, expanding from US$214.9 billion to US$302.6 billion. Staple foods led this growth with an impressive 11.7% CAGR, followed by snacks (9.0%) and dairy products and alternatives (8.3%). Soft drinks grew at a steady 8.0%, while hot drinks saw a slower expansion at 6.9%. However, between 2023 and 2028, the market is expected to decelerate, with a projected CAGR of 2.2%, reaching US$337.5 billion. Dairy products and alternatives will maintain higher growth (3.4%), while staple foods, snacks, and cooking ingredients will see more modest increases of under 2.5%.

From 2019 to 2023, U.S. health and wellness retail sales by claim saw strong growth across almost all categories, particularly in "dietary and free from" and "better for you" products. Cooking ingredients and meals with a "dietary and free from" claim grew at a robust 11.8% CAGR, reaching US$22.9 billion in 2023, while staple foods in the same claim increased by 13.4% CAGR to US$30.9 billion. Dairy products also saw significant growth, with "dietary and free From" and "fortified/functional" claims expanding at 14.8% and 7.6% CAGRs, respectively. However, between 2023 and 2028, growth is expected to moderate, with most categories growing at a slower pace. The highest growth will continue in "dietary and free from" and "fortified/functional" claims, with dairy products and soft drinks maintaining steady gains. Organic products will show modest growth in most segments, while some categories like soft drinks are expected to see slight declines in organic claims.

Foodservice

From 2019 to 2023, the U.S. consumer foodservice sector grew at a steady CAGR of 3.9%, reaching US$739.2 billion. Chained consumer foodservice led this growth with a 6.0% CAGR, while independent foodservice saw modest gains of 1.2%. Limited-service restaurants were a key driver, expanding by 5.9%, while cafés/bars also performed well with a 4.3% CAGR. In contrast, self-service cafeterias declined by 7.9%. Looking ahead to 2028, the market is forecast to grow faster at a 4.9% CAGR, reaching US$939.5 billion. Growth will be strongest in chained foodservice (5.4%). By location, foodservice in lodging and travel settings is expected to grow the fastest, with CAGRs of 6.2% and 7.4%, respectively, as consumer mobility increases. Standalone locations will continue to dominate, maintaining steady growth at 4.7%.

For more information

The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service:

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

Find a Trade Commissioner

More agri-food market intelligence:

International agri-food market intelligence
Discover global agriculture and food opportunities, the complete library of Global Analysis reports, market trends and forecasts, and information on Canada's free trade agreements.

Agri-food market intelligence service
Canadian agri-food and seafood businesses can take advantage of a customized service of reports and analysis, and join our email subscription service to have the latest reports delivered directly to their inbox.

More on Canada's agriculture and agri-food sectors:

Canada's agriculture sectors
Information on the agriculture industry by sector. Data on international markets. Initiatives to support awareness of the industry in Canada. How the department engages with the industry.

For additional information on PLMA Chicago please contact:

Ben Berry, Deputy Director
Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
Agriculture and agri-food Canada
ben.berry@agr.gc.ca

Resources

• Euromonitor International, June 2024: Consumer Lifestyles in the USA
• Euromonitor International, May 2024: Economy, Finance and Trade: The US
• Euromonitor International, April 2024: USA in 2040: The Future Demographic
• Euromonitor International, June 2023: The US: Consumer Profile
• Global Trade Tracker, 2024

Market Overview – United States
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Zhi Duo Wang, Market Analyst

© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2025).

Photo credits
All photographs reproduced in this publication are used by permission of the rights holders.
All images, unless otherwise noted, are copyright His Majesty the King in Right of Canada.

To join our distribution list or to suggest additional report topics or markets, please contact:

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Global Analysis
1341 Baseline Rd, Tower 5, 3rd floor
Ottawa ON  K1A 0C5
Canada
Email: aafc.mas-sam.aac@agr.gc.ca

The Government of Canada has prepared this report based on primary and secondary sources of information. Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) assumes no liability for any actions taken based on the information contained herein.

Reproduction or redistribution of this document, in whole or in part, must include acknowledgement of agriculture and agri-food Canada as the owner of the copyright in the document, through a reference citing AAFC, the title of the document and the year. Where the reproduction or redistribution includes data from this document, it must also include an acknowledgement of the specific data source(s), as noted in this document.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada provides this document and other report services to agriculture and food industry clients free of charge.