The interim Canadian Drought Outlook is currently provided as a seasonal forecast. Our previous forecast maps that projected whether drought conditions across Canada would develop, persist, or improve, have been temporarily removed. Efforts are underway to update the Canadian Drought Outlook maps. In the meantime an interim seasonal Canadian Drought Outlook narrative will be posted on this page.
Spring Drought Outlook (April to June, 2026)
National Summary
By the end of March, drought conditions had improved significantly across most of Canada. However Moderate and Severe Drought persisted in most regions of the country (Figure 1). Despite widespread improvement, localized drought degradation occurred in southern British Columbia and the southern Prairies over winter.
Spring conditions will be highly influenced by the fading La Niña and the developing El Niño. A slow start to spring is anticipated, with colder than normal temperature in April, followed by a rapid shift to above normal temperatures in May. The Environment and Climate Change Seasonal Forecast for April through June shows high confidence in receiving above normal temperatures across much of the country with the highest temperature anomalies expected through southern British Columbia and southern regions of Ontario and Quebec. There is less confidence in the seasonal precipitation forecast however, the forecast from Environment and Climate Change Canada indicates equal chances of above, near, and below normal precipitation for much of the country. However, the forecast does indicate below normal precipitation in coastal regions of British Columbia and above normal precipitation in southeastern British Columbia and southwestern Alberta. Forecasts from other sources show a bit more optimistic view with above normal precipitation in southern British Columbia, the southern Prairies, and southern portions of Eastern Canada, due to active spring systems.
Given the overall forecast of warmer than normal temperatures and generally equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation there is considerable uncertainty on how drought conditions will be impacted this spring. It is likely drought improvement will continue through the early spring, particularly in Eastern Canada, and worsen through the late spring and early summer where precipitation is very low. Early spring snowmelt will improve soil moisture and recharge surface water through most of the country, however as temperatures increase and drier conditions develop, the timing of precipitation will be particularly important to reduce drought conditions western regions.
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The table shows that in the Pacific and Prairie regions drought is expected to worsen, in Atlantic Canada, drought is expected to improve and in Central Canada drought is expected to be removed.
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The map above shows the extent and severity of drought conditions across Canada. The scale used runs from D0 Abnormally dry to D4 Exceptional drought.
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The map above shows forecast probability of temperature above, below and near normal (calibrated) for the period of April-May-June 2026, based on 3 equiprobable categories from 1991-2020 climatology
Pacific Region (BC)
British Columbia's seasonal forecast for April through June indicates a high probability of above normal temperatures throughout most of the province with greater anomalies in the south. However temperatures will fluctuate significantly from early to late spring with near- to below-seasonal temperatures through April, and a quick transition to much warmer conditions for May and June. Overall, Environment and Climate Change Canada are forecasting below normal precipitation for April through June in coastal regions and equal chances of above normal, normal or below normal precipitation through most of the province. The forecast does show above normal precipitation in a few localized regions through the southeast and central Interior. Despite above-normal precipitation being anticipated for the south coast and interior through April, May and June are expected to turn drier, especially in coastal regions resulting in a seasonal precipitation deficit. As the year proceeds high temperatures are expected and Environment and Climate Change Canada expect 2026 to be one of the hottest years on record.
Drought conditions are expected to improve across the region in early spring. Provincially, above-normal snow accumulations, especially at high elevations, will improve streamflow and soil moisture during spring melt. In addition, above normal April precipitation will provide conditions for continued recovery. However, as the spring progresses warmer than normal temperatures and near normal precipitation will likely lead to increasing drought conditions.
Prairie Region (AB, SK, MB)
Spring is off to a late start through the Prairie region, with recent winter-like disruptions. Cooler-than-average conditions are expected to persist through April and into May in many areas, particularly through the eastern Prairies. Western regions of the Prairies may see a quicker transition to warmer temperatures in May as we begin to see the switch between La Niña to El Niño conditions. By June most of the region will see above-to-well above normal temperatures. Active weather patterns influenced by a transitioning La Niña is expected to bring significant early spring snowfall, which will improve soil moisture. The Environment and Climate Change forecast shows low confidence, with many areas in the Prairies having equal chances of below near and above normal precipitation. Other forecast providers are a bit more optimistic that atmospheric conditions will provide southern Prairies normal to above normal precipitation later in the spring season.
Drought conditions have improved in much of the Prairie region through the winter. However southwestern regions have seen frequent swings in temperatures resulting in reduced snowpack and increased evaporation and sublimation. Low snowpack and limited spring runoff in the current drought regions, will likely lead to continued drought conditions despite cool and normal precipitation in early spring. As the spring progresses, normal precipitation may provide beneficial moisture for many areas however higher than normal temperature will increase evaporation and may result in increased drought depending upon the timing of the precipitation.
Central Region (ON, QC)
Drought conditions improved significant through the late winter with above normal precipitation alleviating most soil moisture deficits from last Fall and replenishing surface water in many regions. Spring conditions will be slow to develop, with cooler than normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in Ontario and Quebec. Near normal or above normal precipitation is expected most of the regions through April and likely into May, however the confidence in the longer-range forecasts is low. As we move into May, the forecast is highly uncertain with conflicting signals on when the transition to warmer temperatures will begin.
With lower temperatures and above normal precipitation persisting through much of the spring, drought conditions are anticipated to continue to improve. Improved conditions will provide the opportunity to alleviate the drought from most regions in Ontario and Quebec.
Atlantic Region (NS, NB, PE, NL)
Drought conditions showed significant improvement through the later part of the winter with normal to above normal precipitation. The season outlook from Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts the Atlantic region to receive above normal temperatures and equal chances of above or below normal precipitation through the spring (Figure 2). The region is expected to experience typical spring like conditions through April, characterized by variable temperatures and an active storm track. As the spring progresses temperature are forecast to be above normal with below normal precipitation. The western Maritimes will likely be drier toward late spring.
As a result of last summer's significant drought, lingering impacts are expected to continue this spring. In addition, the region is more vulnerable to dry conditions following the extreme drought of 2025. Spring soil moisture should be adequate to get the growing season off to a good start; however, drought conditions are anticipated to return to parts of the region especially in western New Brunswick.
About the Canadian Drought Outlook
The interim Canadian Drought Outlook discusses if drought across Canada will develop, stay the same or improve by for the end of the season based on ECCC's forecast information, Canadian Drought Monitor, and expert opinion.
The Canadian Drought Outlook was developed by the National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS) at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. For more information contact us at aafc.droughtwatch-guetterlasecheresse.aac@agr.gc.ca.