Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2024-08-20

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (PDF version, 418 KB)

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) July outlook report for the 2023-24 and 2024-25 crop years, based on information available up to August 13, 2024. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. Uncertainty in the world’s grain markets remains elevated because of Russian aggression against Ukraine and other ongoing geopolitical risks.

The 2023-24 crop year closed on July 31 for most crops with the exception of corn and soybeans. Total principal field crop production and supply decreased significantly due to drought experienced over large areas of Western Canada, more than offsetting the decline in exports, which resulted in a decline of carry-out stocks (ending-year inventories) year-over-year. Prices for most principal field crops are projected to be significantly lower than in 2022-23, although pulse prices are expected to increase.

For 2024-25, growing conditions deteriorated in Western Canada throughout July due to prolonged hot and dry weather; as a result, overall yield expectations have been lowered from last month’s AAFC Principal Field Crops Outlook. In particular, yields are revised down for wheat and coarse grains (excluding corn which was revised up), while oilseeds and pulse & special crops yields remain unchanged. Considerable uncertainty remains when estimating crop yield and production at this time of the season. Harvest in Western Canada has started and it is expected to advance quickly as crop development, in general, has advanced rapidly due to the hot and dry weather experienced over the month of July. Prices for most principal field crops are forecast to decline year-over-year, in line with lower world values.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on September 25, 2024. The next major Statistics Canada release will be the model-based estimates of principal field crops, on August 28, 2024.

**Total Grains And Oilseeds^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note f}	2024-2025^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	27,668	28,255	27,826
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	26,814	27,253	26,865
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.38	3.11	3.24
Production (thousand tonnes)	90,521	84,654	86,947
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note b}	2,986	4,037	3,787
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	102,571	98,010	98,989
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note c}	47,655	44,327	45,033
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note e}	45,597	45,427	45,337
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	9,319	8,256	8,620
Table 1 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Table 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Table 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops e referrer Table 1 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Pulses and Special Crops^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note f}	2024-2025^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	3,707	3,376	3,724
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	3,649	3,309	3,650
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.80	1.55	1.90
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,570	5,137	6,916
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note b}	284	400	269
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,900	6,559	7,781
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note b}	5,617	4,930	5,223
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note c}	1,261	1,033	1,163
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,022	596	1,395
Table 2 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 2 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 2 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 2 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Principal Field Crops^{All Principal Field Crops note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{All Principal Field Crops note f}	2024-2025^{All Principal Field Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	31,376	31,631	31,549
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	30,462	30,563	30,514
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.19	2.94	3.08
Production (thousand tonnes)	97,091	89,791	93,863
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note b}	3,270	4,437	4,056
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	110,471	104,568	106,770
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note b}	53,272	49,257	50,256
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note c}	46,858	46,460	46,500
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	10,341	8,852	10,015
Table 3 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 3 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 3 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 3 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to All Principal Field Crops table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2023-24, according to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), producer deliveries of durum through the licensed elevator system totaled 3.7 million tonnes (Mt) by July 28; this represents 91% of total production as reported by Statistics Canada (STC). CGC’s reported exports, which make up close to 99% of total exports but exclude cross border movement outside the CGC licensed elevator system, were reported at 3.45 Mt. The total export forecast was raised to 3.47 Mt and stocks were reduced to 325 thousand tonnes (Kt). Domestic use declines to 684 Kt with a reduction in the feed, waste, and dockage estimate. STC will release the July 31 stocks report, including estimates for supply and demand, on September 9, 2024.

The global durum supply is estimated at 39 Mt according to the International Grains Council (IGC), down 7% year-on-year (y/y) and the lowest on record. Global demand was estimated at 34.2 Mt, with trade reported at 9.4 Mt and stocks to close the year at 4.8 Mt.

The spot price for Canadian Western Amber Durum, no. 1, 13% protein (CWAD, 1, 13%) in Saskatchewan for 2023-24 averaged $425/tonne.

For 2024-25, area seeded to durum is estimated at 2.6 million hectares (Mha) and harvested area is forecast at 2.5 Mha. Over the last month, the Prairies experienced above-average heat and little moisture, which have dampened yield prospects. It is downgraded to 2.4 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) for a total production of 6.0 Mt, still up 49% compared to the previous year, 23% above average, and the fifth largest on record if realized. In Alberta, durum rated in “good” to “excellent” condition dropped from 76% to 66%, and in Saskatchewan, it dropped from over 90% to 58%. Domestic use is stable at average levels and closing stocks remain pegged at 0.8 Mt.

This year, exports are forecast to grow 38% to 4.8 Mt under strong demand from North Africa and parts of Europe. Some additional competition may come from the US, who is also forecasting a larger harvest; Turkey is also expected to play a role in the export market.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), US production is forecast to reach 2.1 Mt, up from 1.6 Mt last year, imports to drop marginally to 1.1 Mt, and exports to expand to 0.8 Mt. In Europe, however, the durum harvest has been facing challenges due to poor weather; in France, wet weather is causing a reduction in both quantity and quality, whereas in Italy, the extreme heat is having a negative impact on yields, especially in the south.

Overall, for 2024-25, the IGC projects durum production to rise 13% to 35.1 Mt, surpassing total use of 34.4 Mt thanks to the increased production in North America. World trade is forecast at a five-year high of 9.5 Mt. Stocks were expanded to 5.5 Mt with the bulk of the increase due to a recovery in major durum exporters’ inventories, which at 2.3 Mt, are up 22% y/y.

The 2024-25 average spot price for CWAD, 1, 13% in Saskatchewan is reduced to $325/tonne under pressure from the larger harvest prospects in North America. Items to monitor include: the US harvest, North African demand, and potential shipments from Turkey.

**Durum ^{Durum note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Durum note f}	2024-2025^{Durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,431	2,442	2,576
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,399	2,375	2,516
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.41	1.70	2.40
Production (thousand tonnes)	5,790	4,045	6,039
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note b}	1	25	25
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	6,360	4,479	6,389
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note c}	5,054	3,470	4,800
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Durum note d}	194	195	200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	470	276	375
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note e}	898	684	789
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	409	325	800
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Durum note g}	445	425	325
Tableau 4 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Durum table note a referrer Tableau 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Durum table note b referrer Tableau 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Durum table note c referrer Tableau 4 Note d Food and Industrial use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Durum table note d referrer Tableau 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Durum table note e referrer Tableau 4 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Durum note f referrer Tableau 4 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Durum note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2023-24, producer deliveries totaled over 26.3 Mt, 85% of total production, according to the CGC. The Canadian export forecast was raised to 21.4 Mt, with just under 21.2 Mt already shipped through the licensed elevator system. Cross border shipments outside the system, generally by road to the US, are not captured by the CGC. Domestic use drops to 7.8 Mt, with a reduction in feed, waste, and dockage. Closing stocks are now pegged at 2 Mt. STC will release its final report on stocks, including supply and disposition estimates for Julye 31, on September 9, 2024.

In 2023-24, the global wheat supply, including durum, totaled 1,061.1 Mt according to the USDA, while total use was 798.8 Mt. World trade was down about 1 Mt to 220.8 Mt with Russia accounting for 25% of all shipments. Stocks closed the year out at 262.4 Mt, down 3% from opening levels.

For 2023-24, the spot price for Canadian Western Red Spring Wheat, no. 1, 13.5% protein (CWRS, 1 13.5%) in Saskatchewan averaged $316/tonne.

For 2024-25, there was 8.3 Mha of land seeded to wheat according to STC, and, assuming normal abandonment, harvested area is forecast at 8.1 Mha, down 3% y/y. As mentioned above, hot and dry weather has returned to the Prairies, threatening yield losses. In general, production expectations have come down since last month and spring wheat conditions remain variable throughout the provinces. As a result, the yield for wheat, excluding durum, was reduced to 3.5 t/ha in this month’s report. Total production is estimated at 28.3 Mt and supply at 30.5 Mt, down 2% compared to 2023-24. Domestic use is forecast at about 8.0 Mt, down from last month, due to the reduced supply. Total exports are pegged at 20.5 Mt and stocks on par with opening levels.

In their most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA is forecasting higher supplies, consumption, and trade in 2024-25, and lower stocks. Due to larger production prospects in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Australia, the world wheat supply is projected to grow 3.5 Mt to 1,060.6 Mt. the US wheat supply itself is also forecast to grow 11% to 75.9 Mt; US exports are projected at 22.5 Mt.

Global consumption is raised to a record 804 Mt on higher feed and residual use, particularly in Europe. World exports are forecast at 214.9 Mt, with increased demand from Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Closing stocks are expected to tighten to 256.6 Mt, the lowest since 2015-16.

The average spot price for CWRS, 1, 13.5% in Saskatchewan remains pegged at $330/tonne in 2024-25 with harvest expectations continuing to pressure prices. Watch items moving forward include: the weather and its final impact on spring wheat yields in North America, quality of the French soft wheat harvest, and Black Sea supplies and early trade movement.

**Wheat Except Durum ^{Wheat except Durum note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Wheat except durum note f}	2024-2025^{Wheat except durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	7,844	8,496	8,256
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	7,683	8,307	8,091
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.72	3.36	3.50
Production (thousand tonnes)	28,545	27,909	28,319
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note b}	64	200	150
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	31,702	31,212	30,469
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note c}	20,612	21,400	20,500
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note d}	3,258	3,200	3,200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	3,858	3,900	4,042
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note e}	7,987	7,812	7,969
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,103	2,000	2,000
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Wheat except Durum note g}	401	316	330
Table 5 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 5 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 5 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 5 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 5 Note e Total Domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 5 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 5 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Wheat^{All wheat note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{All wheat note f}	2024-2025^{All wheat note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	10,274	10,938	10,832
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	10,082	10,682	10,607
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.41	2.99	3.24
Production (thousand tonnes)	34,335	31,954	34,357
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note b}	65	225	175
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	38,063	35,691	36,857
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note c}	25,666	24,870	25,300
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note d}	3,453	3,395	3,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	4,328	4,176	4,417
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note e}	8,885	8,496	8,757
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,512	2,325	2,800
Table 6 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 6 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 6 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 6 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 6 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 6 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2023-24, total domestic use is forecast at 5.9 million tonnes (Mt), relatively on par with the year prior. Total exports, including grain exports and product exports (grain equivalent), are projected at 3.1 Mt, down sharply year-over-year (y/y) due to lower supplies as a result of drought impacting production on the Prairies. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.65 Mt, down 8% and 14% from the previous year and the five-year average, respectively, but still higher than the record low of 0.54 Mt in 2021-22.

The Lethbridge feed barley average price for 2023-24 is finalized at $314/tonne (/t).

For 2024-25, Canadian farmers seeded 2.58 million hectares (Mha) of barley according to Statistics Canada’s (STC) June 2024 Field Crop Survey. Seeded area is down 13% y/y and 15% lower than the five-year average. By province, approximately 55% of the barley area was seeded in Alberta, 36% in Saskatchewan, 5% in Manitoba, and the remainder in other provinces.

The average yield for 2024-25 is forecast down from last month to 3.35 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), marginally below average, due to extended periods of hot and dry conditions throughout July in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Consequently, production has been lowered to 7.9 Mt, lower than the previous year by 11% and 16% below average.

With lower carry-in stocks and the anticipated lower production, total supply is forecast down y/y at 8.6 Mt, 17% below average. Exports have been lowered from last month to 2.75 Mt, down 12% y/y and 19% lower than average. Carry-out stocks are forecast at a record-low of 0.5 Mt, down 30% from average.

The 2023-24 Lethbridge average price is projected at $290/t, continuing its downward trend from the historical highs seen in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised their domestic 2024-25 barley yield estimate in their latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Despite yield increasing, production was forecast slightly lower on reduced planted area and harvested area; it is projected at 3.24 Mt, down 19% from the estimate for 2023-24. The farm price projection is unchanged from last month at US$289/t, notably lower than last year.

Globally, the International Grains Council (IGC) has made a downward revision to its monthly barley forecast for 2024-25, reflecting lower output from Canada, the EU, and the US. At 148.4 Mt, this is an increase y/y, owing to a return to average yields. Replenished stocks in major exporting countries put global ending stocks up 7% y/y while trade is anticipated to contract 5% on lower demand from China.

**Barley^{Barley note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Barley note f}	2024-2025^{Barley note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,851	2,963	2,584
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,636	2,699	2,352
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.79	3.30	3.35
Production (thousand tonnes)	9,987	8,896	7,878
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note b}	26	80	30
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	10,556	9,685	8,558
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note c}	3,889	3,130	2,750
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Barley note d}	106	319	319
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	5,598	5,364	4,749
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note e}	5,958	5,905	5,308
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	709	650	500
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Barley note g}	417	314	290
Table 7 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 7 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 7 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 7 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table7 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 7 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 7 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2023-24, total domestic use is forecast at 16 Mt, up 6% from the previous year and 5% ahead of the five-year average. Exports are projected at 1.8 Mt, down sharply y/y as the ample corn supplies were used domestically. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.9 Mt, a recovery from last year’s nine-year low but still below the five-year average by 14%.

The Chatham corn price remains projected at $210/t, down $90/t from last year.

For 2024-25, Canadian farmers planted 1.47 Mha of corn according to STC’s June survey, down 5% y/y and slightly lower than the five-year average. By province, approximately 59% of the Canadian corn crop was seeded in Ontario, 24% in Quebec, 14% in Manitoba, and the remainder in other provinces.

The average corn yield for 2024-25 is forecast up from last month to a record-high of 10.41 t/ha as reports indicate solid corn growing conditions in Eastern Canada. Production is raised to 15 Mt, 5% higher than average and only slightly below last year’s record high.

Higher carry-in stocks, solid production prospects, and anticipated steady imports brings total corn supply for 2024-25 to 19.9 Mt. Total domestic use is expected to remain relatively stable y/y at 16.1 Mt with continued strong feed and industrial use. Exports are unchanged from last month at 1.75 Mt, 3% lower y/y with anticipated ample global corn supplies this year. Carry-out stocks are projected at 2.1 Mt, 11% higher y/y but 5% below average.

The 2024-25 Chatham average price forecast is lowered to $200/t following lower US corn prices.

the USDA raised its domestic 2024-25 corn yield projection in the latest WASDE, rising 3% higher than the 2023-24 estimate. Production was raised slightly to 385 Mt, down slightly from last year’s estimate. Ending stocks, though revised down from last month, are up 11% y/y to 53 Mt. The average farm price is projected at US$165/t, slightly lower than the July projection and down from the US$183/t estimate for 2023-24 but sharply lower than the US$257/t for 2022-23.

Global corn production for 2024-25 was revised up by the IGC and is forecast at a record 1,225 Mt on positive prospects in Brazil, China, and the EU offsetting declines in North America and the CIS. Similarly, global consumption is forecast at a record 1,230 Mt, outpacing output by 5 Mt. Of total use, 60% is intended for feed and 26% for industrial processing. Global ending stocks are forecast to contract to the lowest volume in 11 seasons while trade is down 6% from last year’s record on lower demand from China, Mexico, and the EU.

**Corn^{Corn note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Corn note f}	2024-2025^{Corn note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,466	1,548	1,474
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,444	1,519	1,441
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	10.00	9.93	10.41
Production (thousand tonnes)	14,539	15,076	15,000
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Corn note b}	2,227	3,000	3,000
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	19,512	19,703	19,900
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note c}	2,848	1,800	1,750
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note d}	5,327	5,450	5,450
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	9,693	10,538	10,585
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note e}	15,036	16,003	16,050
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,628	1,900	2,100
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Corn note g}	300	210	200
Table 8 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 8 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 8 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 8 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 8 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 8 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 8 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2023-24, total domestic use is forecast at 1.24 Mt, down 24% from the previous year due to lower available supplies as a result of the drought on the Prairies. Total exports are forecast 12% lower y/y to 2.3 Mt as the sharp reduction in production has lowered export availability. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.35 Mt, significantly lower y/y and well below the five-year average.

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) average oat price for 2023-24 is finalized at $354/t.

For 2024-25, Canadian farmers seeded 1.18 Mha of oats according to STC’s June survey, up 15% y/y although down 18% from the five-year average. By province, 44% of Canada’s oat crop was planted in Saskatchewan, 27% in Alberta, and 18% in Manitoba with the remainder in other provinces.

The average oat yield is forecast at 3.30 t/ha due to hot and dry conditions, particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Although this is a downward revision from last month, the average yield is still 3% higher than last year and on-par with the five-year average. As a result of lower yield prospects, production is now forecast at 3.2 Mt, up 21% from last year but 18% lower than the average.

Total oat supplies for 2024-25 are projected at 3.6 Mt, owing to significantly lower carry-in stocks and reduced production. Although carry-in stocks are higher than 2022-23’s record-low, they are projected to be the second lowest on record. As a result of lower supplies, exports have been reduced to 2.3 Mt, relatively on par with last year but 10% lower than average on lower exports of oats for grain. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.33 Mt, sharply below average and the lowest on record, if realized.

The CBOT oat price for 2024-25 is projected at $310/t, lower when compared both to last year and the five-year average.

The US oat yield for 2024-25 was raised by the USDA from last month. For now, the US oat yield is projected to be 9% higher than the estimate for 2023-24. With unchanged month-over-month seeded and harvested area projections and solid yield prospects, production has been raised to 1.1 Mt, up 19% from 2023-24. The average farm price, projected at US$233/t, is unchanged, down from the US$254/t for 2023-24 and sharply lower than the US$296/t for 2022-23.

IGC’s 2024-25 global oat production forecast was revised down to 21.6 Mt, a 12% rise y/y. Total consumption is forecast slightly below output on stronger feed demand from China, Brazil, and Russia. Ending stocks are anticipated to rise 15% y/y while trade is relatively on par with last year’s estimate with increased exports by Canada, Australia, and the EU.

**Oats^{Oats note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Oats note f}	2024-2025^{Oats note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,593	1,023	1,175
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,402	823	967
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.73	3.20	3.30
Production (thousand tonnes)	5,227	2,636	3,191
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note b}	25	20	20
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	5,584	3,931	3,561
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note c}	2,670	2,340	2,300
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note d}	90	135	90
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,462	1,008	745
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note e}	1,639	1,241	936
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,275	350	325
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Oats note g}	346	354	310
Table 9 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 9 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 9 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 9 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 9 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 9 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 9 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US N^o.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2023-24, total domestic use, primarily for animal feed, is forecast at 196 thousand tonnes (Kt), down 35% from the previous year and 16% lower than the five-year average. Despite lower supplies, exports are forecast up slightly at 203 Kt, well above the five-year average by 25% as a result of strong demand from the US. Carry-out stocks are projected at 65 Kt, the lowest level since 2019-20, as a result of lower production due to drought on the Prairies.

The average price of rye on the Canadian Prairies for the crop year is finalized at $219/t.

For 2024-25, STC reports 173 thousand hectares of rye were seeded in Canada, down 3% y/y and 15% below the five-year average. By province, 28% of the Canadian rye crop was planted in Alberta, 22% in Ontario, 19% in Saskatchewan, and the remainder in other provinces.

The average rye yield projection is unchanged from last month at 3.18 t/ha, higher y/y but slightly below the five-year average. Production is forecast at 345 Kt, down y/y and 17% below the average. Total supplies are forecast at 412 Kt, due to lower carry-in stocks and below-average output. Carry-out stocks are projected at 60 Kt, down 8% and 22% compared to last year and the five-year average, respectively.

The projected 2024-25 rye average price on the Canadian Prairies is unchanged at C$215/t.

The 2024-25 world rye crop is forecast by the IGC at 12.2 Mt, marginally higher y/y on better yield prospects. Global consumption is forecast to outpace output by 0.3 Mt, ending stocks are forecast to contract to a six-year low, and global trade is forecast down 25% y/y on reduced demand from the US and EU.

**Rye^{Rye note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Rye note f}	2024-2025^{Rye note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	237	178	173
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	152	116	109
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.42	3.09	3.18
Production (thousand tonnes)	520	358	345
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note b}	2	2	2
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	606	464	412
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note c}	199	203	183
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note d}	42	34	34
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	244	147	118
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note e}	303	196	169
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	105	65	60
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Rye note g}	287	219	215
Table 10 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 10 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 10 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 10 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 10 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 10 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 10 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

**Mixed Grains^{Mixed grains note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Mixed grains note f}	2024-2025^{Mixed grains note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	138	145	149
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	72	60	69
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.82	2.53	2.60
Production (thousand tonnes)	203	153	180
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	203	153	180
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note c}	0	0	0
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note d}	0	0	0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	203	153	180
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note e}	203	153	180
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	0	0	0
Table 11 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 11 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 11 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 11 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 11 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 11 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Coarse Grains^{Total coarse grains note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Total coarse grains note f}	2024-2025^{Total coarse grains note f}
Area Seeded	6,286	5,855	5,554
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	5,705	5,217	4,937
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	5.34	5.20	5.39
Production (thousand tonnes)	30,475	27,118	26,594
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note b}	2,280	3,102	3,052
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	36,460	33,935	32,611
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note c}	9,606	7,473	6,983
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note d}	5,565	5,938	5,893
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	17,199	17,209	16,376
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note e}	23,138	23,498	22,643
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,716	2,965	2,985
Table 12 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 12 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 12 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 12 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 12 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 12 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2023-24, crop year supplies are estimated at 20.1 million tonnes (Mt) versus 20.2 Mt for 2022-23 and the five-year average of 21.5 Mt as slightly higher carry-in and imports moderate the decline in output. Imports are estimated at a 20-year high of 0.25 Mt while production was 18.3 Mt, versus the 18.7 Mt grown in 2022-23.

A projected record canola crush of 10.7 Mt in support of the expanding Canadian and US renewable energy industry underlied an estimated 7.4% rise in food and industrial use. Canola oil content averaged 42.6% for August-June 2023-24, based on Stastistics Canada’s processing data. Handling loss and seed use remained at minor levels while feed, waste, and dockage declined.

Canola exports are estimated at 6.86 Mt, versus 7.95 Mt last year, in response to the growing crush and competition from other countries. China is expected to purchase about 70% of Canada’s canola shipments followed distantly by Japan and Mexico at 13% and 9%, respectively.

Carry-out is estimated at 2.40 Mt, up from 2022-23 on higher commerical stocks, supporting an expected strong early season crush pace for 2024-25. The simple average price, No.1 track Vancouver finished the crop year at $705/tonne (/t), down from $857/t in 2022-23 and the five-year average of $729/t, under pressure from declining world soybean oil prices.

For 2024-25, canola area dropped slightly to 8.9 million hectares (Mha) on declining prices, steady input costs, low early-spring soil moisture, and competitive wheat prices. Normal yields are assumed as a dry winter with low soil moisture gave way to a wet spring across much of the Prairies. This was followed by hotter and drier-than-normal weather during July, which accelerated and shortened flowering in some regions.

Weather patterns cooled significantly for early August, improving prospects for the later-seeded canola and for a normal size crop. Canola production is forecast at 18.6 Mt. Supplies are forecast to rise slightly from last year to 21.1 Mt on higher carry-in and output.

Demand is forecast to remain stable with domestic crush predicted at 11.0 Mt. This forecast is subject to revision depending on the speed crush plants under construction become operational. Exports are projected steady at 7.5 Mt depending on the size of the domestic canola crop, domestic crush volumes, and competition from world oilseed and vegetable oil supplies. Carry-out is forecast to fall to 2.23 Mt, marginally below 2023-24 and 8% under the five-year average of 2.50 Mt. The simple average price, No.1 track Vancouver, is forecast notably lower at $630/t for the upcoming crop year.

Factors to watch are: (i) Western Canada’s late summer and early fall weather forecasts, (ii) harvest pace, (iii) early harvest crop yields, (iv) Canada’s crush and export pace and (v) the strength of Chinese, Japanese, and Mexican import buying.

**Canola^{Canola note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Canola note f}	2024-2025^{Canola note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	8,659	8,936	8,906
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	8,596	8,855	8,793
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.17	2.07	2.12
Production (thousand tonnes)	18,695	18,328	18,628
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note b}	151	250	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	20,174	20,084	21,128
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note c}	7,950	6,859	7,500
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note d}	9,961	10,700	11,000
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	692	74	347
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note e}	10,718	10,825	11,398
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,506	2,400	2,230
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Canola note g}	857	705	630
Table 13 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to canola note a referrer Table 13 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to canola table note b referrer Table 13 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to canola table note c referrer Table 13 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to canola table note d referrer Table 13 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to canola table note e referrer Table 13 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to canola table note f referrer Table 13 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Vancouver) Return to canola table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2023-24, total supplies were about 502 thousand tonnes (Kt) (versus 561 Kt for 2022-23 and the five-year average of 567 Kt), as lower output moderated sharply higher carry-in stocks. Production was 273 Kt, down 42% from 473 Kt in 2022-23 and the lowest since 1967-68, on lower seeded area and reduced yields.

Total domestic use is predicted marginally lower on a decline in feed, waste, and dockage, and stable other USage. Exports are estimated up to 0.23 Mt on stronger world demand and lower prices. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 150 Kt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 43%. The simple average price for flaxseed No.1, in-store, Saskatoon cash, is forecast at $581/t versus $635/t for 2022-23 and the five-year average of $710/t.

For 2024-25, flaxseed seeded area fell by 15% from last year to 0.21 Mha and an estimated harvested area of 0.20 Mha. Production is forecast at 266 Kt, down slightly from last year, as the drop in seeded area is partly offset by higher yields. Supplies are projected to fall sharply to 426 Kt on lower carry-in and production.

Total domestic use is forecast to fall to 91 Kt while exports are estimated at 250 Kt. Carry-out stocks fall to 85 Kt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 25%. The simple average price forecast for flaxseed No.1 in-store Saskatoon cash is $590/t, up from 2023-24 but below the five-year average of $710/t.

**Flaxseed (excluding solin) ^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note f}	2024-2025^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	315	247	210
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	312	239	205
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.52	1.14	1.30
Production (thousand tonnes)	473	273	266
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note b}	6	10	10
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	561	502	426
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note c}	214	225	250
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note d}	N/A	N/A	N/A
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	117	112	72
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed note e}	128	127	91
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	220	150	85
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note g}	635	581	590
Table 14 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note a referrer Table 14 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note b referrer Table 14 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note c referrer Table 14 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note d referrer Table 14 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note e referrer Table 14 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note f referrer Table 14 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to canola table note g referrer N/A: not available Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Soybeans

For 2023-24, For 2023-24, total supplies are up 7% from last year to 7.8 Mt, and 2% above the five-year average of 7.62 Mt, as larger carry-in and stable imports support the rise in output. Production was estimated at 7.0 Mt, up 0.4 Mt from last year and the five-year average output of 6.5 Mt.

Total domestic use is forecast to fall slightly on a decrease in crush to 1.75 Mt and a drop in feed, waste, and dockage to about 0.53 Mt. Exports are up 16% from 2022-23 to 4.9 Mt, 10% above the five-year average. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.42 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 6%. The Canadian simple average price for soybeans, track Chatham, is forecast to fall by $113/t from last year to $588/t, versus the five-year average of $562/t.

For August 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintained its bearish outlook for the American soybean market, with 2023-24 ending stocks rising 31% from the previous crop year to 9.4 Mt while farm-gate prices fall by US$62/t from last year to US$459/t. For the current crop year, domestic crush remains strong at 62.3 Mt, a rise of 2.1 Mt from 2022-23 while exports fall 7.6 Mt year-on-year (y/y) to 46.3 Mt.

The US situation mirrors the world oilseed market as global production rose by 0.3 Mt from last month to 657.5 Mt versus 637.9 Mt for 2022-23. World oilseed USage is estimated at 544.2 Mt in contrast to the 525.7 Mt consumed in 2022-23, while world ending stocks are estimated at 129.2 Mt compared to the 119.2 Mt ending inventory for 2022-23.

For 2024-25, soybean area in Canada increased slightly to 2.32 Mha as support from steady crusher and export buying, lower corn prices, and good soil moisture offset lower prices. Production rises slightly to 7.10 Mt, assuming average yields, while supplies rise to marginally under 8 Mt, the third highest on record on a slightly higher carry-in.

Total domestic use falls marginally on a projected drop in feed, waste, and dockage to 0.35 Mt. Domestic crush is optimistically projected at 1.9 Mt on steady soyoil demand for food and fuel. Exports are forecast at 5.0 Mt, the second highest on record versus the 2018-19 out-of-country shipments of 5.64 Mt. Carry-out is forecast up, to 0.52 Mt, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 5%. The Canadian simple average price for soybeans, track Chatham, is forecast down $58/t from last year to $530/t, versus the five-year average of $562/t.

The USDA updated its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates outlook for 2024-25 in August, by predicting a 10% increase in US soybean production to 124.9 Mt on higher planted area and yields. Total supplies are up 11.5 Mt y/y to 134.7 Mt. This allows a 6% rise in domestic crush to 66 Mt in response to growing demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock. Meanwhile, exports are projected up 9% to 50.3 Mt. Ending stocks are up 5.9 Mt from 2023-24 to 15.2 Mt, pressuring a US$62/t drop in prices to US$397/t for the upcoming crop year. US soyoil prices are predicted to fall to US$926/t from US$1,058/t for 2023-24. Soymeal prices are likewise projected down US$77/t to US$352/t for 2024-25.

The USDA’s bearishness extended to the world oilseed market with global oilseed production rising by 33.1 Mt y/y while world oilseed supplies increase to 819.8 Mt versus 776.7 Mt for 2023-24, and total USage increases by 14.7 Mt to 558.9 Mt for 2024-25. World trade is likewise predicted to rise to 207.6 Mt versus 204.1 Mt expected for 2023-24. Ending stocks rise by 21.4 Mt to 150.6 Mt, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 27%, maintaining pressure on world prices.

**Soybeans^{Soybeans note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Soybeans note f}	2024-2025^{Soybeans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,135	2,279	2,324
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,118	2,261	2,323
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.09	3.09	3.06
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,543	6,981	7,102
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note b}	483	450	450
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,313	7,797	7,967
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note c}	4,219	4,900	5,000
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note d}	1,768	1,750	1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	724	532	348
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note e}	2,728	2,482	2,448
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	367	415	520
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Soybeans note g}	701	588	530
Table 15 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 15 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 15 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 15 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 15 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 15 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Table 15 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham) Return to soybeans table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Oilseeds^{Total Oilseeds note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Total Oilseeds note f}	2024-2025^{Total Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	11,108	11,461	11,440
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	11,026	11,354	11,320
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.33	2.25	2.30
Production (thousand tonnes)	25,711	25,581	25,996
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note b}	641	710	560
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	28,048	28,383	29,521
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note c}	12,383	11,984	12,750
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note d}	11,729	12,450	12,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,533	718	767
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note e}	13,574	13,433	13,937
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	2,092	2,966	2,835
Table 16 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 16 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 16 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 16 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 16 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 16 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2023‑24, For 2023-24, exports are estimated at 2.5 million tonnes (Mt), marginally lower than the 2022-23 level, with higher exports to India offset by lower exports to China, Bangladesh, and the US. Despite the reduced exports and lower domestic use, the sharply lower output in 2023-24 is expected to result in a carry-out stocks estimate of 0.23 Mt, down from the previous year and lower than the five-year average. For all dry pea types, the crop year average price was sharply higher than 2022-23. With lower carry-out stocks, the average dry pea price was 5% higher than the average price in 2022-23.

For 2024‑25, Canadian dry pea production in Canada is forecast to rise sharply from 2023-24, to 3.3 Mt. This is largely due to good pea crop conditions across Western Canada, despite the July heat, that may lower abandonment and raise yields. Saskatchewan is estimated to account for 52% of the dry pea production with 39% in Alberta and the remainder across Canada. Supply is forecast to rise 10% to 3.6 Mt, due to the increase in production. Exports are forecast to remain steady at 2.5 Mt, with China, Bangladesh, and the US expected to be Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rebound sharply. The average price is expected to be lower than 2023-24.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2024-25 is forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to rise by 7% from 2023-24, to 1.0 million acres (Mac) (0.40 million hectares (Mha)). This is largely due to an expected rise in area in North Dakota and Montana. Despite lower yields and increased abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to rise to 0.84 Mt. the US has been successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to markets in China, Canada, and Yemen. It is expected the US will continue to try to increase its market share in these countries in 2024-25.

**Dry Peas^{Dry peas note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Dry peas note f}	2024-2025^{Dry peas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,363	1,233	1,300
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,348	1,200	1,270
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.54	2.17	2.60
Production (thousand tonnes)	3,423	2,609	3,300
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note b}	35	135	30
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	3,797	3,241	3,555
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Dry peas note b}	2,564	2,500	2,500
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note c}	736	516	615
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	498	225	440
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	15%	7%	14%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry peas note d}	440	460	430
Table 17 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry peas table note a referrer Table 17 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry peas table note b referrer Table 17 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry peas table note c referrer Table 17 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry peas table note d referrer Table 17 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry peas table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2023‑24, lentil exports fell sharply to 1.6 Mt, 28% lower than the previous year. Exports of red lentils were 1.0 Mt while 0.6 Mt were green lentils.

The main markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey. Total domestic use was higher than 2022-23 at 0.26 Mt. Carry-out stocks fell below 0.1 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was 22% higher than in 2022-23 at a record $1,000/tonne (/t). No.1 large green lentil prices maintained an average crop year premium of $787/t over No.1 red lentil prices.

For 2024‑25, lentil production is forecast to rise by 50% to 2.5 Mt. Lower abandonment and higher yields are expected due to good lentil crop conditions in Western Canada. Total green and red lentil area rose. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 88% of the lentil production, with the remainder in Alberta and Manitoba. Supply is also forecast to increase sharply due to the higher yields and production offsetting smaller carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise to 1.9 Mt, with the increase in exportable supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise compared to the previous year. The average price is forecast to fall sharply from 2023-24 with the expectations of larger world supply.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2024-25 is forecast by the USDA to rise by 53% to 0.84 Mac (0.34 Mha), due to higher area seeded in Montana. Assuming similar yields and higher abandonment, 2024-25 US lentil production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 0.4 Mt, up 52% from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

**Lentils^{Lentils note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Lentils note f}	2024-2025^{Lentils note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,749	1,485	1,704
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,715	1,460	1,675
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.34	1.14	1.49
Production (thousand tonnes)	2,301	1,671	2,500
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	87	95	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	2,610	1,913	2,625
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	2,209	1,600	1,900
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note c}	255	263	275
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	147	50	450
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	6%	3%	21%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Lentils note d}	820	1,000	830
Table 18 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to lentils table note a referrer Table 18 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to lentils table note b referrer Table 18 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to lentils table note c referrer Table 18 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to lentils table note d referrer Table 18 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to lentils table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry Beans

For 2023‑24, dry bean exports were higher than 2022-23 despite lower Canadian supply. the US and the EU remained the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan but record exports to Mexico. A smaller North American supply positively impacted Canadian dry bean prices in 2023-24, which rose to a record $1215/t, up marginally from the previous year.

For 2024‑25, Canadian production is forecast to increase to 0.38 Mt as higher seeded area is partly offset with lower yields. By province, Ontario is expected to account for 36% of total dry bean production, Manitoba 37%, Alberta 21%, with the remainder in Saskatchewan, Quebec, and the Maritimes. Supply is expected to fall despite the higher production with lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower than the previous year. Canada is expected to maintain its market share in the US, Europe, and Japan. As a result of the notable decrease in exports, even with the smaller supply, carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be lower with larger expected supply in North America.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise by 30% to 1.53 Mac (0.62 Mha), largely due to increased area seeded in North Dakota. Total US dry bean production for 2024-25 (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA to rise to 1.39 Mt, up 28% from 2023-24.

**Dry Beans^{Dry beans note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Dry beans note f}	2024-2025^{Dry beans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	120	129	150
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	117	129	146
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.67	2.63	2.58
Production (thousand tonnes)	313	339	375
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	70	75	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	523	494	470
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	368	400	355
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note c}	75	74	75
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	80	20	40
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	18%	4%	9%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry beans note d}	1,165	1,215	1,140
Table 19 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 19 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 19 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 19 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 19 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2023‑24, Canadian chickpea exports were lower than the previous year at 190 thousand tonnes (Kt). This was largely due to lower exports to Pakistan and the US. With the lower supply despite slightly lower exports, carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply. The average price was marginally higher at a record $1,005/t than the previous year due to lower world supply.

For 2024‑25, production is forecast to more than double to 305 Kt due to higher area and yields. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for the majority of the chickpea production with the remainder in Alberta. Supply is forecast to sharply increase from last year. Exports are forecast to be unchanged from 2023-24 and carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply from the previous year. The average price is forecast to be notably lower than 2023-24.

The US chickpea area for 2024-2025 is forecast by the USDA at 0.50 Mac (0.20 Mha), up 35% from the previous year. Assuming average yields and abandonment, 2024-25 US chickpea production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 0.29 Mt, up 36% from last year.

**Chickpeas ^{Chickpeas note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Chickpeas note f}	2024-2025^{Chickpeas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	95	128	184
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	95	127	181
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.35	1.12	1.69
Production (thousand tonnes)	128	142	305
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	42	50	45
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	325	243	351
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	198	190	190
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note c}	76	52	76
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	51	1	85
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	18%	0%	32%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Chickpeas note d}	1,000	1,005	900
Table 20 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 20 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 20 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 20 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 20 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard Seed

For 2023‑24, Canadian mustard seed exports were lower than the previous year at 100 Kt due to decreased demand from the US and the EU. Carry-out stocks rose sharply due to the increased supply. Prices were pressured from the higher Canadian and US yellow and brown mustard seed stocks. Prices for all mustard types were sharply lower than the previous year. As a result, the Canadian average price across all types was 40% lower than the prices set in 2022-23.

For 2024‑25, production is forecast at 225 Kt, 32% higher than last year, despite a 5% fall in seeded area. Expectations for higher yields and similar abandonment due to improved weather are the reason for the increase in production. Supply is expected to increase by 39%, to 314 Kt, as higher carry-in stocks combine with the rise in output. Exports are expected to be higher at 110 Kt, with the US and the EU being the main markets for Canadian mustard seed. With the increased supply, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply. The average price is forecast to be 27% lower than 2023-24 at $930/t.

**Mustard Seed ^{Mustard Seed note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Mustard Seed note f}	2024-2025^{Mustard Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	225	258	245
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	219	251	239
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	0.74	0.68	0.94
Production (thousand tonnes)	162	171	225
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	11	15	9
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	189	225	314
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	110	100	110
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note c}	40	45	44
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	40	80	160
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	26%	55%	104%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Mustard Seed note d}	2,140	1,280	930
Table 21 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 21 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 21 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 21 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 21 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary Seed

For 2023‑24, exports were 110 Kt, much lower than the previous year due to smaller Canadian supply. There was a decrease in exports to Mexico and the EU, particularly, Belgium. The average producer price was marginally higher than a year earlier.

For 2024‑25, production is forecast at 160 Kt, up 43% from last year, due to an increase in area and higher expected yields. Supplies are forecast to increase due to the rise in production, despite lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise from 2023-24 with the increase in supply, with the EU and Mexico continuing to be the main markets, followed by the US and Columbia. The average price is forecast to be sharply lower than in 2023-24.

**Canary Seed ^{Canary Seed note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Canary Seed note f}	2024-2025^{Canary Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	118	104	118
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	117	103	116
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.36	1.09	1.38
Production (thousand tonnes)	159	112	160
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	213	169	205
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	147	110	135
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note c}	9	14	10
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	57	45	60
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	36%	36%	41%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Canary Seed note d}	900	930	770
Table 22 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 22 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 22 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 22 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower Seed

For 2023‑24, sunflower seed exports increased to 30 Kt due to a rise in demand from the US. Despite this, carry-out stocks were sharply higher than the previous year on increased supply and lower domestic use. The total average Canadian price for sunflower seed decreased notably from the previous year due to lower oil and confectionery type sunflower seed prices.

For 2024‑25, production is estimated at 51 Kt, down sharply from last year, as seeded area fell from the previous year, to 24 thousand hectares, and yields are expected to be lower than last year. Exports are forecast to be higher at 33 Kt due to expectations for increased US demand. the US remains Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed, with small amounts moving to Bulgaria and Japan. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 160 Kt. Sunflower seed prices are forecast to rise by 16% to $630/t, due to higher prices for oil and confectionery types.

For the US sunflower crop, the USDA forecasts that the area seeded to oil-type varieties is expected to fall to 0.77 Mac (0.31 Mha), while the area seeded to confectionery-type varieties is forecast to decrease to 0.13 Mac (0.1 Mha). Assuming normal yields and lower abandonment, 2024-25 US sunflower seed production is forecast by AAFC to fall sharply to 0.7 Mt, the lowest in modern times.

For 2024-25, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at 60 Mt, 2 Mt lower than last year. This is due to lower carry-in stocks from the previous year in Ukraine. World exports are expected to fall sharply to 2.6 Mt, while total domestic use is expected to fall marginally to 55 Mt. As a result of the smaller supply, world carry-out stocks are expected to fall 11% to 2.6 Mt. This is expected to be supportive for Canadian oil-type sunflower seed prices in 2024-25.

**Sunflower Seed ^{Sunflower Seed note a}: August 20, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Sunflower Seed note f}	2024-2025^{Sunflower Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	38	40	24
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	38	40	23
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.24	2.32	2.22
Production (thousand tonnes)	84	92	51
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	40	30	35
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	242	273	261
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	22	30	33
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note c}	70	68	68
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	151	175	160
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	165%	178%	158%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Sunflower Seed note d}	800	545	630
Table 23 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 23 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 23 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 23 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.