Baked goods in the European Union – Focus on top five markets

Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.

Executive summary

Baked goods in the European Union (EU) saw modest retail sales growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.8% between 2016 and 2021, recording total retail sales of US$98.6 billion in 2021. Over 2021-2026, sales are expected to grow by a CAGR of 2.9%, led by higher sales in Netherlands, Italy, and Poland. Baked goods' sales are led by Italy, Germany, and France which collectively accounted for 58.7% of total EU baked goods sales in 2021.

Accotding to Euromonitor, compared to other staple foods, sales of baked goods have been largely unaffected by pandemic lockdowns in the EU.

As the pandemic prioritised health and wellness, baked goods with a healthier positioning are expected to grow over 2021-26. As premium prices for these products can be a major barrier for consumers, major European retailers are launching private label health and wellness baked goods, in addition to stocking more branded organic offerings, to help make these baked goods more affordable.

 

Market overview

Baked goods in the EU saw modest retail sales growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.8% between 2016 and 2021, recording total retail sales of US$98.6 billion in 2021. Over 2021-2026, sales are expected to grow by a CAGR of 2.9%, led by higher sales in Netherlands, Italy, and Poland. Baked goods' sales are led by Italy, Germany, and France which collectively accounted for 58.7% of total EU baked goods sales in 2021.

Accotding to Euromonitor, compared to other staple foods, sales of baked goods have been largely unaffected by pandemic lockdowns in the EU. Packaged flat bread is growing in popularity, partly because packaged bread is seen as more hygienic with a longer storage life than unpackaged varieties. Flat bread popularity is also driven by interest in regional EU gastronomic traditions, such as piadina in Italy and tortillas in Spain, as well as foreign cuisine, such as burritos from Mexico. As flat breads can be used as a wrap, demand is expected to continue growing as employees return to the office.

As the pandemic prioritised health and wellness, baked goods with a healthier positioning are expected to grow over 2021 to 2026. Higher quality ingredients are expected to be in demand, such as organic, as well as enriched breads that offer extra health benefits and cakes and pastries that incorporate healthier ingredients. As premium prices for these products can be a major barrier for consumers, major European retailers like Carrefour, Aldi, Rewe, Alcampo, and Lidl are launching private label baked goods, in addition to stocking more branded offerings, to help make these baked goods more affordable.

Baked goods retail value sales by top 10 markets in Europe (based on 2021) - Historical and forecast retail value sales in US$ millions and growth
Country 2016 2021 CAGR % 2016-2021 2022 2026 CAGR % 2021-2026
European Union Total 90,089.5 98,579.7 1.8 100,747.9 113,545.7 2.9
Italy 19,493.4 21,149.7 1.6 22,041.3 26,268.0 4.4
Germany 17,219.1 18,587.9 1.5 18,488.5 19,740.7 1.2
France 16,858.2 18,102.1 1.4 18,522.7 20,471.1 2.5
Spain 5,704.1 5,437.5 −1.0 5,555.0 5,979.9 1.9
Poland 3,702.5 4,419.3 3.6 4,582.9 5,417.3 4.2
Netherlands 3,345.8 3,681.6 1.9 3,780.1 4,590.1 4.5
Austria 3,255.7 3,612.4 2.1 3,670.0 3,923.7 1.7
Romania 2,477.4 3,215.4 5.4 3,304.9 3,576.3 2.2
Belgium 3,067.7 3,172.4 0.7 3,233.0 3,567.1 2.4
Sweden 1,921.2 2,272.6 3.4 2,298.2 2,745.5 3.9

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Historic data: 2016 to 2021

Forecast data: 2022 to 2026

Italy

Market overview

Italy was the largest EU baked goods market in 2021 with sales growing at a CAGR of 1.6% over 2016-21, reaching total retail sales of US$21.1 billion. Sales are expected to do better over 2021 to 2026 at a CAGR of 4.4%, valued at US$26.3 billion by 2026.

Packaged flat bread has remained one of the strongest performers in baked goods in Italy in 2021. This category has become more appealing to many Italians since the beginning of the pandemic, partly because packaged bread in general is seen as more hygienic than unpackaged varieties.

Pandemic-related hygiene concerns and the increasing preference for longer-lasting bread have also continued to support growth in sales of packaged leavened bread in 2021, with sandwich and soft varieties remaining the most popular.

While the pandemic has driven healthier eating, Italian consumers have also shown a greater desire for indulgence while spending more time at home. In terms of baked goods, the influence of these seemingly divergent trends has been most evident in the growing demand for packaged cakes and packaged pastries combining rich, luxurious flavours with natural and highly nutritious ingredients that provide functional health benefits.

Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Historic retail sales in US$ millions
Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Baked goods total 19,493.3 19,781.7 20,181.3 20,589.1 20,666.1 21,149.8
Bread 12,402.0 12,544.2 12,771.3 13,012.6 13,009.6 13,262.1
Cakes 4,269.3 4,352.9 4,438.2 4,503.1 4,535.1 4,688.2
Pastries 2,729.3 2,791.2 2,876.2 2,976.1 3,017.8 3,093.0
Frozen Baked Goods 38.0 39.0 41.7 44.6 47.7 50.1
Dessert Mixes 54.7 54.4 53.9 52.7 55.9 56.4
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022
Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Historical retail value sales growth
Category Annual growth % 2020-2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021 Total growth % 2016-2021
Baked goods total 2.3 1.6 8.5
Bread 1.9 1.4 6.9
Cakes 3.3 1.9 9.8
Pastries 2.4 2.5 13.3
Frozen Baked Goods 4.8 5.7 31.8
Dessert Mixes 0.9 0.6 3.1

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Forecast retail sales in US$ millions
Category 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Baked goods total 22,041.3 23,049.1 24,104.9 25,201.9 26,267.9
Bread 13,747.2 14,309.4 14,886.3 15,477.6 16,027.1
Cakes 4,948.3 5,243.3 5,565.2 5,908.5 6,264.8
Pastries 3,235.8 3,382.4 3,535.9 3,694.4 3,851.3
Frozen Baked Goods 53.0 56.2 59.4 62.7 65.7
Dessert Mixes 57.0 57.8 58.1 58.7 59.0
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022
Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Forecast retail value sales growth
Category Annual growth % 2021-2022 CAGR* % 2021-2026 Annual growth % 2021-2026
Baked goods total 4.1 4.4 24.2
Bread 3.4 3.9 20.8
Cakes 5.7 6.0 33.6
Pastries 4.1 4.5 24.5
Frozen Baked Goods 4.6 5.6 31.1
Dessert Mixes 0.5 0.9 4.6

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Top 5 baked goods companies in Italy in 2021 - retail value sales in US$ millions and market share (%)
Company Retail sales (US$ millions) Market share (%)
Others 17,662.7 83.5
Barilla Holding SpA 909.0 4.3
Bauli SpA 813.4 3.8
Private Label 693.9 3.3
Ferrero & related parties 461.6 2.2
Dr Schär AG/SpA 123.6 0.6
Valeo Foods Ltd 94.4 0.4
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

New product launches

From 2017 to 2021, 5,648 baked goods products were introduced in Italy. The most popular product claim was "palm oil free". Other popular claims were "no additivies/preservatives" and "low/no/reduced allergen". The companies with the highest number of new product launches were Lidl, Barilla, and Eurospin.

New product launches of baked goods products in Italy, 2017 to 2021
Product attributes Number of new product by year Total
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Yearly product launches 1,251 1,180 1,143 1,131 943 5,648
Top 5 claims
Palm Oil Free 290 329 319 263 211 1,412
Not Specified 293 257 264 250 219 1,283
No Additives/Preservatives 199 210 226 225 131 991
Low/No/Reduced Allergen 210 209 171 179 162 931
Social Media 167 149 195 214 137 862
Top 5 companies
Lidl 59 62 69 28 26 244
Barilla/Barilla G. e R. Fratelli 58 60 53 38 33 242
Eurospin 18 31 15 20 16 100
Conad 23 14 19 22 16 94
Galbusera 5 27 19 21 16 88
Top 5 Flavours (including blend)
Unflavoured/Plain 482 478 475 489 388 2,312
Chocolate 81 81 97 80 66 405
Cocoa/Cacao 43 46 41 45 31 206
Chocolate (Dark/Black) 23 30 22 27 16 118
Hazelnut 32 19 14 22 16 103
Top 5 ingredients
Salt (Food) 909 891 898 855 693 4,246
Wheat Flour (Food) 784 723 721 650 494 3,372
White Sugar (Food) 733 707 705 636 489 3,270
Emulsifiers 561 565 547 499 383 2,555
Raising Agents 560 528 526 440 366 2,420
Top 5 package types
Flexible 1,121 1,045 1,037 1,003 813 5,019
Clam-pack 25 21 28 21 23 118
Carton 24 28 21 24 18 115
Tray 16 16 23 27 20 102
Flexible stand-up pouch 12 8 13 13 25 71
Launch types
New Variety/Range Extension 476 441 475 461 340 2,193
New Product 385 307 248 311 324 1,575
New Packaging 212 270 272 235 208 1,197
Relaunch 151 145 134 115 64 609
New Formulation 27 17 14 9 7 74
Source: Mintel GNPD, 2022

Examples of new products

Classic Buckwheat Biscuits with Chocolate
Company Dileo Pietro
Manufacturer Dileo Pietro
Brand Il Forno dei Desideri
Category Bakery
Sub-category Sweet biscuits / cookies
Market Italy
Store name Sapori Vietresi
Store type Traditional retail outlet
Price in US dollars 2.02
 

These crunchy and golden biscuits have been made according to traditional recipes with quality ingredients and a slow manufacturing process and long baking time at the right temperature. The product is free from palm oil and retails in a 430 gram pack.

Crackers with Spelt, Buckwheat and Quinoa
Company Misura
Manufacturer Misura
Brand Misura Multigrain Cereali Antichi
Category Bakery
Sub-category Savoury biscuits / crackers
Market Italy
Store name Iperspar
Store type Mass merchandise / hypermarket
Price in US dollars 2.58
 

This product is described as a crunchy and light cracker with 50% less saturated fats compared to similar products on the market, comprises a mix of puffed spelt wheat, Cappelli durum wheat, buckwheat, quinoa and type 2 wheat flour. It is free from artificial flavours and palm oil, is rich in fibres, and retails in a 350 gram recyclable pack containing 10 portions with six units each and featuring the FSC Forest for All Forever, FSC Mix, Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp logos. The manufacturer claims to use electrical energy from renewable sources to make this product, protect the nature, use correctly natural resources, and to participate in responsible disposal.

Organic Small Tarts with Blueberries
Company Il Mangiarsano
Manufacturer Il Mangiarsano
Brand Mangiar Sano
Category Bakery
Sub-category Cakes, pastries and sweet goods
Market Italy
Store name MD
Store type Supermarket
Price in US dollars 2.19
 

This organic product is made with whole spelt flour and cane sugar, and is free from palm oil. It retails in a 210 gram pack, containing six 35 gram units, and featuring the EU Organic logo.

Germany

Market overview

Changing German consumer behaviour as a result of the pandemic has led to highier sales of baked goods as many consumers working from home have been able to consume breakfast at home, increasing demand for bread in particular. An increasing number of Germans are purchasing bread from supermarkets. Bread sales increased by a CAGR of 1.0% over 2016-21, valued at US$12.1 billion in 2021 and forecast to grow 0.8% over 2021 to 2026 to US$12.7 billion in 2026.

The pandemic has also driven Increased popularity regional products, which is considered to have a lower carbon footprint and to be healthier. With many Germans also wanting to support local businesses, these products, often artisanal, tend to be more expensive than non-regional products.

Despite an easing of restrictions in Germany, many Germans have become accustomed to working from home, which has had an impact on most consumers' behaviour. The "snackification" trend, has been strengthened, is expected to drive sales of dessert mixes and packaged cakes. It is also likely that the number of family celebrations, social gatherings and other events will increase over time, from which cakes in particular could benefit. For these reasons, new, innovative products and new flavours for cakes and dessert mixes are expected to be introduced. Frozen baked goods saw fastest growth of all baked goods over 2016 to 2021 by a CAGR of 6.5% over 2016 to 2021, followed by dessert mixes (4.1%) pastries (2.5%) and cakes (1.9%). Growth in these products is epected to slow over 2021 to 2026.

Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Historic retail sales in US$ millions
Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Baked goods total 17,219.1 17,470.7 17,526.8 17,712.1 18,091.1 18,588.0
Bread 11,547.0 11,669.4 11,644.4 11,701.2 11,876.0 12,153.6
Cakes 3,739.7 3,811.7 3,845.4 3,919.1 3,994.6 4,117.3
Pastries 1,266.7 1,290.1 1,311.2 1,346.4 1,380.6 1,435.2
Frozen Baked Goods 456.7 485.9 507.3 522.2 596.8 626.2
Dessert Mixes 209.0 213.6 218.5 223.2 243.1 255.7
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022
Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Historical retail value sales growth
Category Annual growth % 2020-2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021 Total growth % 2016-2021
Baked goods total 2.7 1.5 7.9
Bread 2.3 1.0 5.3
Cakes 3.0 1.9 10.1
Dessert Mixes 4.9 4.1 22.3
Frozen Baked Goods 4.7 6.5 37.1
Pastries 3.8 2.5 13.3

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Forecast retail sales in US$ millions
Category 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Baked goods total 18,488.4 18,741.3 19,056.8 19,397.7 19,740.7
Bread 12,030.0 12,130.4 12,288.8 12,477.6 12,671.7
Cakes 4,144.5 4,238.0 4,328.0 4,416.1 4,500.5
Dessert Mixes 1,455.2 1,496.9 1,540.0 1,580.2 1,619.5
Frozen Baked Goods 611.3 627.3 647.3 666.8 687.3
Pastries 247.4 248.7 252.7 257.0 261.7
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022
Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Forecast retail value sales growth
Category Annual growth % 2021-2022 CAGR* % 2021-2026 Annual growth % 2021-2026
Baked goods total 1.7 1.2 6.2
Bread 1.5 0.8 4.3
Cakes 1.9 1.8 9.3
Dessert Mixes 2.4 2.4 12.8
Frozen Baked Goods 3.0 1.9 9.8
Pastries 1.8 0.5 2.3

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Top 5 baked goods companies in Germany in 2021 - retail value sales in US$ millions and market share (%)
Company Retail sales (US$ millions) Market share (%)
Artisanal 11,453.7 55.8
Private Label 3,993.8 21.5
Others 977.3 5.8
Harry-Brot GmbH 970.6 5.3
Agrofert as 335.4 5.2
Kuchenmeister GmbH 311.9 1.8
Oetker-Gruppe 161.1 1.7
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

New product launches

From 2017 to 2021, 7,307 baked goods products were introduced in Germany, with the highest number of new products launched in 2019. The most popular product claim was organic, followed by sustainable and environmentally friendly package. The companies with the highest number of new product launches were ligle, followed by Aldi Sud, and Penny Markt.

New product launches of baked goods products in Germany, 2017 to 2021
Product attributes Number of new product by year Total
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Yearly product launches 1,545 1,371 1,490 1,529 1,372 7,307
Top 5 claims
Organic 398 262 398 365 333 1,756
Not Specified 400 292 353 311 271 1,627
Ethical - Sustainable (Habitat/Resources) 323 303 287 295 298 1,506
Ethical - Environmentally Friendly Product 302 292 267 277 251 1,389
Ethical - Human 262 254 207 231 217 1,171
Top 5 companies
Lidl 134 73 68 100 86 461
Aldi Süd 75 59 86 125 92 437
Penny Markt 83 53 38 54 87 315
Aldi Nord 62 65 57 14 17 215
Bahlsen 23 27 29 24 39 142
Top 5 flavours (including blend)
Unflavoured/Plain 415 337 354 404 351 1,861
Chocolate 95 98 114 113 96 516
Cocoa/Cacao 45 33 45 47 28 198
Butter 37 27 34 32 41 171
Chocolate (Milk) 34 36 43 25 26 164
Top 5 ingredients
Wheat Flour (Food) 1,029 983 993 988 931 4,924
Salt (Food) 992 957 962 986 859 4,756
White Sugar (Food) 867 847 829 836 829 4,208
Emulsifiers 763 739 718 720 652 3,592
Raising Agents 690 660 677 729 632 3,388
Top 5 package types
Flexible 1,247 1,100 1,205 1,182 1,099 5,833
Carton 75 76 57 67 56 331
Flexible stand-up pouch 37 36 43 36 45 197
Not Specified 40 14 26 79 16 175
Tray 19 26 37 31 25 138
Launch types
New Variety/Range Extension 793 516 610 658 524 3,101
New Product 364 419 451 421 293 1,948
New Packaging 280 331 346 333 477 1,767
Relaunch 96 92 76 96 70 430
New Formulation 12 13 7 21 8 61
Source: Mintel GNPD, 2022

Examples of new products

Lentil Crispbread
Company Gutena Nahrungsmittel
Manufacturer Gutena Nahrungsmittel
Brand Filinchen
Category Bakery
Sub-category Savoury biscuits / crackers
Market Germany
Store name Kaufland
Store type Mass merchandise / hypermarket
Price in US dollars 1.80
 

This crispy product from sustainable and local farming is made from legumes, is free from grains, gluten, palm fat, soy, and lactose, is low in sugar and is suitable for vegans. It retails in a 100 gram pack containing 2 packets with nine units in each.

Spiced Spelt Biscuits
Company Bohlsener Mühle
Manufacturer Bohlsener Mühle
Brand Bohlsener Mühle
Category Bakery
Sub-category Sweet biscuits / cookies
Market Germany
Store name Alnatura
Store type Natural / health food store
Price in US dollars 3.94
 

The product is free from palm oil and retails in a 170 gram pack featuring Bioland and EU Organic logos.

Fantastic Pumpkin Crackers
Company Dr. Klaus Karg
Manufacturer Dr. Klaus Karg
Brand Dr. Karg's Genuss mit Biss Super Saaten
Category Bakery
Sub-category Savoury biscuits / crackers
Market Germany
Store name EDEKA neukauf
Store type Supermarket
Price in US dollars 2.36
 

The super crispy organic product is made with plant-based, natural ingredients, including 97% grainy oat flakes and seeds, such as an extra serving of pumpkin seeds, flax seeds and nutty sesame, as well as wholegrain oat flour, sea salt and sunflower oil. It is a source of omega 3 fatty acids, suitable for vegans, free from gluten and additives, and retails in a recyclable 85 gram pack bearing the EU Organic and BIO logos.

France

Market overview

Bread is still widely purchased on a daily basis across France, with the majority of bread purchased from local bakeries which are increasingly offering loaves made with grains, alternative flours and organic ingredients. Consumers perceive artisanal bread to be of good quality and naturally healthy due to the quality of flour used in its baking. Another driver for purchasing bread from artisanal bakeries is consumers' desire to preserve the French bakery tradition.

Mass produced bread is perceived as less healthy but despite consumers' preference for fresh artisanal bread, packaged bread has seen very strong growth during the pandemic, in particular, packaged flat bread, which has seen developments in the use of alternative grains. Bread sales increased by a CAGR of 2.0% over 2016-21, valued at US$9.6 billion in 2021 and forecaste to grow 2.7% over 2021 to 2026 to US$11.3 billion in 2026.

As pandemic restrictions have eased, opportunities for celebrations involving cakes and pastries have become easier as larger gatherings are permitted, leading to growth in sales of these products. Dessert mixes have been in decline and despite healthier ingredients and new recipes, consumers have been opting for either home-made or shop bought desserts. Much of the diminishing popularity of this category stems from its unhealthy image as more consumers are endeavouring to reduce their sugar intake. Cakes are expected to grow fastest of all baked goods by a CAGR of 3.3% over 2021 to 2026, followed by bread (2.7%) and pastries (1.0%).

Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Historic retail sales in US$ millions
Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Baked goods total 16,858.2 17,086.1 17,378.8 17,737.0 17,778.8 18,102.1
Bread 8,946.4 9,067.0 9,204.2 9,391.2 9,649.4 9,873.2
Cakes 4,328.3 4,384.0 4,481.1 4,599.9 4,461.1 4,561.8
Pastries 3,347.1 3,410.7 3,479.4 3,541.4 3,465.9 3,468.4
Frozen Baked Goods 110.0 107.7 105.1 102.2 102.4 101.3
Dessert Mixes 126.4 116.7 109.0 102.3 100.0 97.4
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022
Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Historical retail value sales growth
Category Annual growth % 2020-2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021 Total growth % 2016-2021
Baked goods total 1.8 1.4 7.4
Bread 2.3 2.0 10.4
Cakes 2.2 1.1 5.4
Pastries 0.1 0.7 3.6
Frozen Baked Goods −1.1 −1.6 −7.9
Dessert Mixes −2.7 −5.1 −22.9

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Forecast retail sales in US$ millions
Category 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Baked goods total 18,522.6 18,990.7 19,491.8 19,986.6 20,471.2
Bread 10,146.4 10,436.4 10,737.6 11,015.4 11,268.4
Cakes 4,668.8 4,813.8 4,982.0 5,166.7 5,365.5
Pastries 3,511.4 3,547.2 3,581.9 3,617.4 3,653.9
Frozen Baked Goods 100.4 99.5 98.3 97.1 95.6
Dessert Mixes 95.6 93.8 92.0 90.0 87.8
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022
Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Forecast retail value sales growth
Category Annual growth % 2021-2022 CAGR* % 2021-2026 Annual growth % 2021-2026
Baked goods total 2.4 2.5 13.1
Bread 2.2 2.7 14.1
Cakes 3.7 3.3 17.6
Pastries 1.0 1.0 5.3
Frozen Baked Goods −1.6 −1.2 −5.6
Dessert Mixes −2.5 −2.1 −9.9

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Top 5 baked goods companies in France in 2021 - retail value sales in US$ millions and market share (%)
Company Retail sales (US$ millions) Market share (%)
Others 15,005.0 82.9
Private Label 894.8 4.9
Barilla Holding SpA 526.7 2.9
Pasquier SA 452.1 2.5
Limagrain, Groupe 272.5 1.5
Groupe Norac SA 224.6 1.2
Mondelez International Inc 176.1 1.0
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

New product launches

From 2017 to 2021, 8,766 baked goods products were introduced in France, with the highest number of new products launched in 2019. The most popular product claim was environmentally friendly package followed by recycling, organic. The companies with the highest number of new product launches was Mondelez, followed by Scamark, and De Neuville.

New product launches of baked goods products in France, 2017 to 2021
Product attributes Number of new product by year Total
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Yearly product launches 1,750 1,819 1,854 1,529 1,814 8,766
Top 5 claims
Ethical - Environmentally Friendly Package 629 632 662 481 578 2,982
Ethical - Recycling 618 622 647 470 547 2,904
Organic 371 433 502 422 539 2,267
Not Specified 468 453 329 346 380 1,976
No Additives/Preservatives 258 276 288 217 313 1,352
Top 5 companies
Mondelez 99 93 77 31 47 347
Scamark 60 52 64 41 44 261
De Neuville 0 13 65 78 91 247
Interdis 6 23 20 59 83 191
Lidl 35 34 61 19 41 190
Top 5 flavours (including blend)
Unflavoured/Plain 405 446 403 388 475 2,117
Chocolate 215 203 221 147 172 958
Butter 59 68 66 66 45 304
Chocolate (Milk) 67 44 60 43 55 269
Chocolate (Dark/Black) 44 36 51 48 55 234
Top 5 ingredients
Wheat Flour (Food) 1,327 1,296 1,316 1,081 1,179 6,199
Salt (Food) 1,253 1,177 1,234 962 1,099 5,725
White Sugar (Food) 1,105 1,098 1,096 859 961 5,119
Raising Agents 807 828 892 640 735 3,902
Emulsifiers 822 775 803 573 678 3,651
Top 5 package types
Flexible 1,419 1,453 1,531 1,213 1,377 6,993
Carton 45 67 96 116 121 445
Flexible stand-up pouch 42 66 68 49 104 329
Tray 69 55 49 43 46 262
Clam-pack 35 49 36 33 35 188
Launch types
New Variety/Range Extension 721 819 779 629 729 3,677
New Packaging 500 490 488 385 477 2,340
New Product 410 388 427 333 351 1,909
Relaunch 107 112 152 175 251 797
New Formulation 12 10 8 7 6 43
Source: Mintel GNPD, 2022

Examples of new products

Protein Pancakes Mix
Company HNC Healthy Nutrition Company
Manufacturer HNC Healthy Nutrition Company
Brand Maxi Nutrition
Category Bakery
Sub-category Baking ingredients and mixes
Market France
Store name E.Leclerc
Store type Mass merchandise / hypermarket
Price in US dollars 11.88
 

The product is said to be easy to prepare, contains 58% protein and is low in sugar. It is free from palm oil, artificial colours and flavours, and has been Cologne List Tested as a product of Commitment to a Clean Sport. It retails in a 400 gram pack containing eight servings.

3 Seeds Buckwheat, Sesame and Poppy Biscuits
Company Nutrition et Santé
Manufacturer Nutrition et Santé
Brand Gerblé Bio
Category Bakery
Sub-category Sweet biscuits / cookies
Market France
Location of manufacture France
Import status Not imported
Store name Carrefour
Store type Supermarket
Price in US dollars 2.70
 

This organic product with French wheat, features 43% less sugar, 78% less saturated fatty acids and 35% less salt than other biscuits of the same range. It contains kasha grains, which are toasted buckwheat, sesame and crunchy poppy seeds, and is free from palm oil and rich in fibres. It scores a B on the Nutri-score, and retails in a 132 gram recycled and partially recyclable pack containing four sachets of three biscuits, and bearing the AB - Agriculture Biologique and EU Organic logos. The manufacturer is claimed to combine the best environmental practices, act for the biodiversity and natural resources, and guarantee incomes for millers and farmers.

Organic Corn Pizza Base
Company Schnitzer
Manufacturer Schnitzer
Brand Schnitzer Gluten-Free
Category Bakery
Sub-category Bread and bread products
Market France
Location of manufacture Germany
Import status Imported product
Store name Greenweez.com
Store type Internet / mail order
Price in US dollars 2.10
 

The product is a source of fibres, is free from gluten, lactose and palm oil, and can be oven-baked in 10 to 12 minutes. It retails in a 100 gram pack containing one unit and featuring a recipe suggestion, the EU Organic logo and preparation instructions.

Spain

Market overview

Consumer trends that emerged during pandemic restrictions have persisted following the easing of restrictions in spring 2021, with many employees continuing to work from home. As a result, the rate of growth in sales of baked goods is expected to increase over 2021 to 2026, with demand continuing to shift from unpackaged to packaged baked goods due to hygiene concerns.

Consumers continue to enjoy leisurely breakfasts working from home, supporting increased consumption of products like bread and pastries. People are also cooking more at home and thus consuming more bread, in particular flat breads like tortillas, as an accompaniment to meals. Bread sales are expected to increase by a CAGR of 1.8% over 2021 to 2026 to US$3.9 billion in 2026. Frozen baked goods are forecast to see the fastest growth of all baked goods by a CAGR of 3.0% over 2021 to 2026, followed by pastries (2.9%) and bread (1.8%).

Organic and other health and wellness offerings are expected to continue growing in importance in baked goods. Price remains a major barrier but retail chains are launching private label organic baked goods, in addition to stocking more branded organic offerings, such as Oroweat Bio by Bimbo.

Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Historic retail sales in US$ millions
Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Baked goods total 5,704.1 5,485.5 5,372.3 5,277.4 5,369.4 5,437.4
Bread 3,863.8 3,678.1 3,590.2 3,508.8 3,543.2 3,566.0
Pastries 809.7 804.8 803.0 802.5 832.6 857.9
Cakes 895.7 874.0 855.3 842.8 864.1 878.5
Frozen Baked Goods 96.7 91.3 87.3 87.5 92.0 96.2
Dessert Mixes 38.2 37.3 36.5 35.8 37.5 38.8
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022
Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Historical retail value sales growth
Category Annual growth % 2020-2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021 Total growth % 2016-2021
Baked goods total 1.3 −1.0 −4.7
Bread 0.6 −1.6 −7.7
Pastries 2.9 1.2 6.0
Cakes 1.6 −0.4 −1.9
Frozen Baked Goods 4.4 −0.1 −0.5
Dessert Mixes 3.4 0.3 1.6

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Forecast retail sales in US$ millions
Category 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Baked goods total 5,554.9 5,674.0 5,789.2 5,889.8 5,979.9
Bread 3,628.1 3,698.1 3,767.8 3,835.9 3,898.3
Pastries 886.8 913.7 941.5 966.3 988.7
Cakes

899.7

917.3 931.1 935.9 940.5
Frozen Baked Goods 100.3 104.1 107.8 110.7 111.6
Dessert Mixes 40.0 40.8 41.0 41.0 40.8
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022
Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Forecast retail value sales growth
Category Annual growth % 2021-2022 CAGR* % 2021-2026 Annual growth % 2021-2026
Baked goods total 1.5 1.9 10.0
Bread 1.6 1.8 9.3
Pastries 2.3 2.9 15.2
Cakes 0.5 1.4 7.1
Frozen Baked Goods 0.8 3.0 16.0
Dessert Mixes −0.5 1.0 5.2

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Baked Goods Companies in Spain in 2021 - retail value sales in US$ millions and market share (%)
Company Retail sales (US$ millions) Market share (%)
Others 3,821.1 70.3
Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV 681.7 12.5
Private Label 519.4 9.6
Vicky Foods Products SLU 224.3 4.1
Adam Foods SL 59.4 1.1
Dr Schär AG/SpA 33.4 0.6
DE Master Blenders 1753 NV 26.2 0.5
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

New product launches

From 2017 to 2021, 3,785 baked goods products were introduced in Spain, with the highest number of new products launched in 2021. The most popular product claim was Low/No/Reduced Allergen. Followed by environmentally friendly package and recycling. The companies with the highest number of new product launches was Aldi, followed by Mercadona, and Lidle.

New product launches of baked goods products in Spain, 2017 to 2021
Product attributes Number of new product by year Total
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Yearly product launches 807 826 735 658 759 3,785
Top 5 claims
Not Specified 245 201 138 120 153 857
Low/No/Reduced Allergen 154 187 194 159 132 826
Ethical - Environmentally Friendly Package 98 129 152 184 244 807
Ethical - Recycling 92 122 146 169 222 751
Organic 118 156 208 138 89 709
Top 5 companies
Aldi 41 38 71 50 36 236
Mercadona 11 30 82 35 33 191
Lidl 35 49 18 28 54 184
Carrefour 14 13 50 40 30 147
Bimbo Donuts 0 7 8 22 30 67
Top 5 flavours (including blend)
Unflavoured/Plain 253 311 261 257 262 1,344
Chocolate 92 81 59 62 94 388
Cocoa/Cacao 43 19 27 18 31 138
Chocolate (Milk) 19 8 16 17 29 89
Chocolate (Dark/Black) 11 14 20 15 28 88
Top 5 ingredients
Salt (Food) 555 566 467 442 535 2,565
Wheat Flour (Food) 565 538 421 398 514 2,436
White Sugar (Food) 466 425 331 355 502 2,079
Emulsifiers 418 372 333 329 457 1,909
Raising Agents 432 274 286 237 336 1,565
Top 5 package types
Flexible 689 684 623 513 617 3,126
Flexible stand-up pouch 9 32 26 41 39 147
Carton 27 29 25 26 17 124
Tray 22 18 9 21 16 86
Clam-pack 21 23 6 3 11 64
Launch types
New Variety/Range Extension 437 416 406 302 337 1,898
New Product 239 254 221 167 139 1,020
New Packaging 85 100 71 116 204 576
Relaunch 30 43 31 65 68 237
New Formulation 16 13 6 8 11 54
Source: Mintel GNPD, 2022

Examples of new products

Sun-Dried Tomato & Herb Organic Scottish Oatcakes
Company Clearspring
Manufacturer Clearspring
Brand Clearspring
Category Bakery
Sub-category Savoury biscuits / crackers
Market Spain
Location of manufacture United Kingdom
Import status Imported product
Store name El Corte Inglés
Store type Department store
Price in US dollars 4.41
 

This vegan wholegrain product is high in fibre and is said to be made using the finest organic and carefully selected ingredients, including pinhead oats, rolled oats, oat flour and olive oil, baked to perfection in small batches by fourth generation craft bakers in the Scottish Highlands, and which are the secret to the delicious flavour and creamy texture of the cakes. It is free from added sugars, dairy and palm oil, and retails in a 200 gram pack with featuring EU Organic, Soil Association Organic and Vegan Society Approved Vegan Trademark logos.

Gluten Free Puff Pastry Dough
Company Adpan Europa
Manufacturer Adpan Europa
Brand Adpan
Category Bakery
Sub-category Baking ingredients and mixes
Market Spain
Location of manufacture Spain
Import status Not imported
Store name Consum.es
Store type Internet / mail order
Price in US dollars 2.50
 

Adpan Masa de Hojaldre sin Gluten (Gluten Free Puff Pastry Dough) has been relaunched, now free from palm oil and in a newly designed packaging. The product is free from gluten, egg, soya, milk, seeds, nuts and peanuts and retails in a 250 gram pack featuring the Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram logos and the Vegan V-Label seal by the European Vegetarian Union.

White Chocolate and Cranberry Cookies
Company Arluy
Manufacturer Arluy
Brand B-Live Sin Gluten
Category Bakery
Sub-category Sweet biscuits / cookies
Market Spain
Location of manufacture United Kingdom
Import status Imported product
Store name El Corte Inglés
Store type Department store
Price in US dollars 3.81
 

This product has been made with 100% oat flour and is free from palm oil and gluten. It retails in a 150 gram recyclable pack.

Poland

Market overview

Sales of baked goods in Poland remain mostly artisanal from bakeries, as their popularity is driven by the perception of higher quality and use traditional Polish recipes, perceptions that have been prominent during the pandemic. Polish consumers are not expected to change this habit and are increasingly choosing packaged products, which has prompted some companies to invest in frozen artisanal products, which are then sold to retailers to be re-baked in-store. Despite this, packaged flat bread is growing in popularity in Poland, especially corn packaged flat bread, which is popular in Mexican cuisine. Flat breads are also used as a wrap for making sandwiches and as employees return to the office, demand is expected to grow. Bread sales are expected to increase by a CAGR of 3.8% over 2021 to 2026 to US$5.2 billion in 2026.

Pastries are forecast to see the fastest growth of all baked goods by a CAGR of 5.9% over 2021 to 2026, followed by dessert mizes (4.8%) and bread (3.8%).

Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Historic retail sales in US$ millions
Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Baked goods total 3,702.5 3,718.0 3,831.3 4,037.2 4,248.0 4,419.4
Bread 2,488.8 2,414.8 2,431.2 2,570.3 2,711.2 2,786.0
Pastries 462.2 520.3 580.5 620.2 683.7 733.7
Cakes 653.5 682.0 714.9 737.7 734.1 771.7
Dessert Mixes 88.1 90.6 93.7 97.7 107.0 115.4
Frozen Baked Goods 9.9 10.3 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.6
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022
Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Historical retail value sales growth
Category Annual growth % 2020-2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021 Total growth % 2016-2021
Baked goods total 3.9 3.6 19.4
Bread 2.7 2.3 11.9
Pastries 6.8 9.7 58.7
Cakes 4.9 3.4 18.1
Dessert Mixes 7.3 5.5 31.0
Frozen Baked Goods 4.8 4.9 27.3

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Forecast retail sales in US$ millions
Category 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Baked goods total 4,419.4 4,582.9 4,781.0 4,995.1 5,205.3
Bread 2,786.0 2,873.8 2,978.1 3,099.5 3,226.2
Pastries 733.7 780.0 828.7 879.4 929.5
Cakes 771.7 794.6 833.4 868.8 895.8
Dessert Mixes 115.4 121.5 127.5 133.8 140.0
Frozen Baked Goods 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022
Baked goods retail value sales by product category - Forecast retail value sales growth
Category Annual growth % 2021-2022 CAGR* % 2021-2026 Annual growth % 2021-2026
Baked goods total 3.9 4.2 22.6
Bread 4.1 3.8 20.7
Pastries 5.1 5.9 33.5
Cakes 2.1 3.5 18.6
Dessert Mixes 4.0 4.8 26.4
Frozen Baked Goods 0.7 2.0 10.3

Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Top 5 baked goods companies in Poland in 2021 - retail value sales in US$ millions and market share (%)
Company Retail sales (US$ millions) Market share (%)
Ecotone 45.9 52.4
East West Tea Co LLC 14.5 16.6
Unilever Group 12.2 13.9
Hain Celestial Group Inc, The 1.8 2.1
Simon Lévelt BV 1.3 1.5
Private Label 5.0 5.7
Others 6.9 7.9
Source: Euromonitor International, 2022

New product launches

From 2017 to 2021, 2,464 baked goods products were introduced in Poland, with the highest number of new products launched in 2017. The most popular product claim was low/no/reduced allergen, followed by organic, and gluten free. The companies with the highest number of new product launches were Lifle, followed by Jeronimo Martins, and Aldi.

New product launches of baked goods products in Poland, 2017 to 2021
Product attributes Number of new product by year Total
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Yearly product launches 546 434 539 485 460 2,464
Top 5 claims
Not Specified 187 128 182 111 107 715
Low/No/Reduced Allergen 87 57 81 95 87 407
Organic 31 56 77 125 89 378
Gluten Free 80 52 74 88 77 371
No Additives/Preservatives 67 65 53 64 60 309
Top 5 companies
Lidl 41 33 63 42 46 225
Jeronimo Martins 28 33 35 40 37 173
Aldi 9 17 33 9 20 88
Mondelez 9 13 21 9 9 61
Carrefour 0 5 17 16 12 50
Top 5 flavours (including blend)
Unflavoured/Plain 148 122 158 152 130 710
Chocolate 31 23 33 16 32 135
Cocoa/Cacao 21 7 26 14 18 86
Coconut 13 9 16 9 11 58
Butter 13 6 12 13 13 57
Top 5 ingredients
Wheat Flour (Food) 370 277 344 257 272 1,520
Salt (Food) 343 301 320 262 265 1,491
White Sugar (Food) 321 248 302 204 249 1,324
Raising Agents 271 214 251 193 211 1,140
Emulsifiers 256 213 258 179 208 1,114
Top 5 Packaged Types
Flexible 449 350 459 391 393 2,042
Flexible stand-up pouch 20 24 24 33 15 116
Flexible sachet 23 17 24 20 11 95
Carton 15 14 10 15 9 63
Tray 12 16 13 11 8 60
Launch types
New Variety/Range Extension 212 198 233 187 209 1,039
New Product 240 166 227 195 140 968
New Packaging 52 50 41 73 95 311
Relaunch 39 19 35 28 13 134
New Formulation 3 1 3 2 3 12
Source: Mintel GNPD, 2022

Examples of new products

Five Cereal Cupcake Preparation with Chocolate and Sunflower Seeds
Company Dr. Oetker
Brand Dr. Oetker My Natural Day
Category Bakery
Sub-category Baking ingredients and mixes
Market Poland
Store name Kaufland
Store type Mass merchandise / hypermarket
Price in US dollars 1.75
 

The vegetarian mix contains linseed and chocolate pieces and is a source of fibre. It is free from preservatives, colourants, glucose syrup, and palm oil, and retails in a 263 gram pack containing one 212 gram baking mixture, one 50 gram mixture of chocolate drops and sunflower seeds, and 10 paper muffin cups and featuring preparation instructions.

Cereal Biscuits with Cranberry
Company Sante A. Kowalski
Manufacturer Sante A. Kowalski
Brand Sante Fit
Category Bakery
Sub-category Sweet biscuits / cookies
Market Poland
Store name Kaufland
Store type Mass merchandise / hypermarket
Price in US dollars 0.45
 

The product is described as tasty and nutritious cereal cookies that are perfect for people who care about healthy and active lifestyle and want to reduce sugar in their diet. They are a source of fibre, contain manganese that contributes to normal carbohydrate metabolism, with no palm oil and no added sugars because their sweetness comes from naturally occurring sugars in fruits.

Organic Lentil Cookies with Chocolate
Company Pro-Bio
Manufacturer Pro-Bio
Brand Biolinie
Category Bakery
Sub-category Sweet biscuits / cookies
Market Poland
Store name Vis Vitalis
Store type Natural / health food store
Price in US dollars 2.47
 

This gluten- and palm oil-free product retails in a 100 gram pack, featuring EU Green Leaf and BIO logos.

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Resources

  • Euromonitor International:
    • Baked goods in Italy (December 2021)
    • Baked goods in Germany (December 2021)
    • Baked goods in France (December 2021)
    • Baked goods in Spain (December 2021)
    • Baked goods in Poland (December 2021)
  • Mintel, Global New Product Database (accessed Sept, 2022)

Baked goods in the European Union – Focus on top five markets
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Kris Clipsham, Market Analyst

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