Consumer Profile – The United Arab Emirates

Key demographic indicators

The UAE's population in 2020 was 9.0 million people, 7.9 million (87.5%) of whom were expatriates (non-UAE nationals), most of them from South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, as shown in the table below. In 2040, the UAE's population is expected to reach 10.1 million, an increase of 11.9% from 2020. The population is approaximately two-thirds male and predominantly urban.

The age groups that exceeded 1 million in 2020 were between the ages of 25 and 39, most of them expatriates. The growth rate for all age groups from 2010 to 2040 ranges from a −0.9% CAGR (ages 25-29) to a 12.6% CAGR (ages 70-74). The 70-74 age group is recording the fastest growth among all age groups in the UAE, but will only represent 1.3% of the total population in 2040. Population growth in 2020-2040 will be driven by the 60+ age group, which will grow by 570%, albeit from a low base (Euromonitor, 2021).

The increase in the UAE population can be attributed mostly to the high demand for labour in the two main cities of Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Ongoing construction and demand for labour has attracted workers from the region and around the world. As the population of the UAE continues to grow, demand for services such as health care and education will increase. The UAE authorities have generated strong expectations from their residents by putting forward the Emirates' "Vision 2021," a long-term plan that aims to make the UAE one of the best countries in the world by 2021, when the UAE will celebrate the Golden Jubilee of its formation as a federation.

The United Arab Emirates' vital statistics

In the UAE, the fertility rate was 1.4 children per female in 2020, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. It will, however, fall to 1.3 children per female by 2040, which is much lower than it was in 1980, when the rate was 5.4. The UAE's population growth in 2020-2040 will be slower than it was in the 2000s due to falling birth and fertility rates and increasing death rates. In addition, net migration will no longer be the main driver of population growth as annual average net migration levels will be much lower in 2020-2040 than they were in the 2000s. On top of this, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, a great number of foreigners were forced to leave causing a net migration loss of over half a million people in 2020 alone.

As for age at birth, Emirati women, who make up only approximately 1/3 of the population, are marrying and having children at a later age as a result of career and educational opportunities improving.

Household structure in the United Arab Emirates

The increase in the UAE's population does not affect its structure in terms of household types. Couples with children make up the largest group, followed by other (couples with children and extended families), single-parent families and couples without children.

Mixed marriages between UAE nationals and non-nationals are uncommon. According to the UAE's National Bureau of Statistics, 88.6% of non-national husbands married non-national wives in 2014 (most recent data), while 77.4% of national husbands married national wives. Couples with children and extended families (classified as "Other") are the key consumer groups in the UAE, driving demand for food, education, transportation and housing.

The United Arab Emirates' urban population versus rural population

The UAE was predominantly urban, with 87.7% of the population residing in urban areas in 2020. The urban population is expected to increase rapidly to 90.8% by 2040, reaching around 9.2 million people. The rural population fell from 15.4% in 2000 to 12.3% in 2020 and is forecast to decrease to 9.2% by 2040.

In terms of geographic differences, the income gap between urban and rural households remains relatively modest. Nevertheless, the gap is anticipated to widen due to the country's urbanization and immigration of affluent individuals, who typically reside in urban areas.

Most of the urban population lives in the top three cities (2020): Dubai (2.9 million), Abu Dhabi (1.65 million) and Ash-Shariqa (1.1 million). These three cities are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 0.2%, 0.8% and 0.8% respectively, from 2020 to 2040.

Population by language

In 2020, 68.5% of the population is using Arabic and that figure is forecast to decrease slightly to 68.2% by 2040. Hindi is the second most common language, used by 15.3% of the population in 2020, and that figure is forecast to increase to 18.5% by 2040. English is mostly used in business.

Population by religion

UAE nationals are 100% Muslim; the majority are Sunnis, with a minority being Shi'a.

Non-nationals have different religious backgrounds, with the largest groups being Hindu and Christian.

Business environment and dynamics

Despite being a small nation, the UAE has emerged as one of the wealthiest and most dynamic countries globally. The total proportion of consumer spending on essential items (food products, clothing and housing) remains above regional and global levels. The country's demographic dividend adds to its long-term competitiveness, but its low female workforce participation rate and heavy dependence on expatriates concern businesses. Although in the short term soft oil prices might limit infrastructure spending, in the medium term World Expo 2020 (to be hosted in Dubai, from October 2021 to March 2022 due to COVID-19), the first World Expo in the region, is expected to drive infrastructure investment in the country, thereby boosting the country's overall competitiveness. The UAE has made starting a business easier by improving online registration. The UAE has also made getting electricity easier by eliminating all costs for commercial and industrial connections of up to 150 Kilo Volt Amperes (kVA). And it has made registering property easier by increasing the transparency of the land administration system.

According to a 2021 World Bank ranking on ease of doing business, the UAE dropped 5 spots to 16th place in 2020 and is expected to drop to 17th by the end of 2021. Despite the recent dropoff, the Unite Arab Emirates remains strong primarily result of a package of reforms in the past year that boosted the country's economic competitiveness. The Emirates has the highest-ranking economy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and is among the World Bank's top 20 ranking out of 190 economies.

According to Euromonitor, individuals aged 45-49 are predominantly the highest-income earners and are forecast to dominate among the highest-income earners up until 2040. The latter age cohort will drive demand for luxury goods and family-oriented services. Average gross income for all working ages has started to increase, from US$207,184 in 2020 to an estimated value of US$252,722 in 2023. Primarily due to the COVID-19 virus the unemployment rate in the UAE was at 5% in 2020 up from 2.3% the previous year.

Food and beverage preferences and expenditures

Per capita consumer expenditure on all products has increased at a CAGR of 2.3% from 2016 to 2020. In 2020, per capita consumer expenditure was US$14,639.8, 12.5% of which was spent on food.

Per capita expenditure on food and non-alcoholic beverages had CAGR of 2.6% from 2016 to 2020. This expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2021 to 2025. Per capita expenditure on alcohol and Tabaco grew from 2016 to 2020 at a CAGR of 3.3% and will continue to grow at a CAGR of 3.2% from 2021 to 2025. Per capita expenditure on meat accounts for the largest share (25.1% share in 2020) of what UAE consumers spend on food, this amount increased to US$459.8 in 2020 from US$415.2 in 2016, a CAGR of 2.6% during that period. Expenditure on meat is forecast to continue to grow to US$515.0 by 2025, a CAGR of 2.9% from 2021 to 2025

Consumer trends

Food and beverages

Dishes forming part of the Emirati cuisine include Al Jabab bread, camel meat, dates, fish, Kabsa (mixed rice dishes), Maqluba (meat, rice and fried vegetables placed in a pot), Shuwaa (slow cooked lamb, roasted nuts, raisins served over rice), Khabees (sweet dish made from flour and oil), Harees (boiled, cracked or coarsely ground wheat, mixed with meat), Asida (a dish made from a cooked wheat flour lump of dough, sometimes with added butter or honey), Khamir bread and Machboos.

Seafood has been the mainstay of the Emirati diet for centuries. The UAE cuisine is a reflection of a great Arabian heritage and vast exposure to civilizations over time. Muslims are prohibited from eating pork, so it is not included in Arab menus. Meat, fish and rice are the staple foods of Emirati cuisine. Lamb and mutton are more favoured meats than goat and beef. Hotels frequently have pork substitutes such as beef sausages and veal rashers (veal bacon) on their breakfast menus. If pork is available, it is clearly labelled on the packaging. Specific supermarkets may sell pork, but it is sold in separate sections.

Popular beverages are coffee and tea, which can be supplemented with cardamom, saffron or mint to give them a distinct flavour. Other beverages are camel milk, soft drinks, water, juice and Laban (fermented milk). Alcohol is generally only served in hotel restaurants and bars (but not in Sharjah). All nightclubs and golf clubs are permitted to sell alcohol.

Halal certification in UAE: Halal means lawful or permitted and "non halal" (haram) means prohibited as per Islamic law (Sharia). Having traces of pork, slaughtering animals in a non-Islamic way and the presence of alcohol in food products, among other things, are not allowed according to Islamic law.

UAE authorities have increased efforts to raise the country's self-sufficiency levels. The country's desert region with arid land has made this task challenging. However, as Euromonitor reports, the results of these efforts are positive. The UAE produces 95% of all the dates consumed in the country, 79% of its fish, 25% of its vegetables, 18% of its red meat and poultry products, and 95% of its fresh milk. While improvement in domestic production has been significant, there is still much room for development, as 80% of food bought in the UAE still comes from abroad. The food manufacturing industry relies heavily on imported ingredients. About 80% of the UAE's supply of fresh fruit and vegetables is imported.

An international country with an international palate

The UAE is an international country, as 87.5% of its residents are foreign citizens. The large number of foreign nationals is reflected in the demand and the variety of foods available in the country. A large percentage of foreign residents are affluent with a demand for international products as well as for luxury or over-the-top food items. For example, Dubai offers the world's most expensive truffle, known as "La Madeline au Truffe" from the chocolaterie Chocopologie. The truffle retails at US$250 and is a favourite among Emiratis. Chocopologie also offers other varieties of chocolate, and customers have private lounges where they can enjoy their purchases in absolute privacy. The overall retail market size of chocolate confectionery in the UAE was US$414.8 million in 2020 (Euromonitor International).

While opportunities are available for affluent foreign residents, a large number of UAE foreign residents work in the construction industry, which pays workers lower wages. Many might be employed temporarily in the country. This new consumer group will have their own needs and consumer food service preferences, such as easy-to-prepare and economical meals.

Demand for health and wellness products is on the rise

There is an increasing demand for healthy food and organic products. Supermarkets and grocery stores have started to accommodate these requests by creating separate sections within their stores for healthy and organic products. Consumers are also seeking products for specific food intolerances such as diabetes and celiac disease. Supermarkets have also created space for diabetic and gluten-free products on their shelves.

The composition of the UAE's population will continue to play a role in demand for products in supermarkets. It is expected that over the next few years, ethnic food will continue to grow and gain market share in supermarkets as workers seek food from home and residents seek to try new products.

Driven by the UAE's increasing income and affluence and by the global trend toward eating healthy, including natural ingredients and quality food, UAE customers have increased their consumption of health and wellness products at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2016 to 2020, in particular in the free form products at a CAGR of 12.8%, followed by organic at a CAGR of 11.5%, better for you (BFY) at a CAGR of 6.7%, fortified/functional at a CAGR of 5.5% and Naturally Healthy at a CAGR of 5.2% from 2016 to 2020. All five categories in the HW sector will grow from 2021 to 2025, with organic food growing the fastest at a CAGR of 18.2%.

Conclusion

Consumer income and expenditure growth are forecast to sustain momentum until 2040 in the UAE due to recovering commodity prices, new construction projects, tourism growth and an increasing population from a diversity of cultures, which create and demand different market and food service needs. However, the migration of workers is forecast to result in growing numbers of low-income consumers in the country and, consequently, wider income inequality. Slower income growth of low-income consumers and increasing housing costs are forecast to limit discretionary spending.

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Resources

• Business Reforms in the United Arab Emirates. The World Bank Group. Retrieved January 11, 2019
• Top 100 City Destinations: 2019 Edition, Euromonitor. Retrieved October 12, 2021
• Emirati cuisine. Wikipedia. Retrieved January 11, 2019
• Income and expenditure: United Arab Emirates. Euromonitor International. October 2021.
• Ease of Doing Business in United Arab Emirates, Trading Economics Retrieved October 10, 2021
• UAE seeks to slash fresh product imports by boosting home-grown produce. Food Naviagor-Asia.com. Retrieved January 11, 2019
• United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2040: The Future Demographic. Euromonitor International. October 2021.
• Vision 2021. Government of the United Arab Emirates. Retrieved January 11, 2019

Consumer Profile – The United Arab Emirates
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Jason Moors, Market Analyst

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