Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.
Executive summary
China is the most populous country in the world. In 2020, its population was estimated at 1.4 billion people. The country is also the world's second-largest economy. In 2020, its gross domestic product (GDP) was valued at US$14.7 trillion according to the World Bank. China was the third-largest importer of agri-food and seafood products in the world after the United States and the European Union (EU).
China is a net importer of agri-food and seafood products. In 2020, its imports were valued at Can$228.8 billion, rising at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% from 2016 to 2020. The top five imports to China in 2020 were soybeans, frozen pork, frozen beef, baby food and palm oil.
In 2020, Canada had an agri-food and seafood trade surplus of Can$4.9 billion with China. Canada's agri-food and seafood exports to China were valued at Can$9.4 billion in 2020, an increase of 43.3% from 2019.
In 2020, China's processed food and beverage imports were valued at Can$126.1 billion and increased at a CAGR of 16.5% from 2016 to 2020.
In 2020, the health and wellness sector was valued at US$121.6 billion and grew by a CAGR of 5.9% from 2016 to 2020.
Country profile
China is one of Canada's largest export markets for agri-food and seafood products. Exports to China have been driven by its massive population, rapid urbanization, and rising disposable income of the growing middle class. This has led consumers to become more sophisticated and increase demand for imported food.
China is the most populous country in the world at 1.4 billion people in 2020. The ten largest cities are located in the eastern half of the country, situated on or near the coast.
China has the world's second-largest economy. Economic growth in China has been subdued due to the effects of the trade war with the United States and the Covid-19 pandemic. According to Euromonitor International, economic growth in China decreased from 5.9% in 2019 to 2.3% in 2020. Economic growth is forecast to rebound in 2021 with the reopening after months of lockdowns and soaring global demand from consumers. The Chinese real GDP is forecast to grow by 8.6% in 2021.
Production
Corn is China's most produced and the country is the largest importer of the crop in the world. It is estimated that 75% of China's corn is used for animal feed (USDA, 2021). In 2019, corn production increased by 1.4% in comparison to 2018. From 2015 to 2019, production of corn decreased by a CAGR of −0.4%. Cucumbers were the fastest growing crop among the top 10 produced crop during the 2015-2019 period with a CAGR of 3.9%, followed by tomatoes (CAGR of 3.1%).
Meat production is dominated by pork, which has fallen by a CAGR of −6.7% from 2015 to 2019. Chicken production, the second-largest meat category, increased by 4.6% while beef production also increased by 1.6% over the same period. Chickens are the most bred livestock in China. Production of chickens recorded the largest increase among the top 5 livestock with a CAGR of 2.3% from 2015 to 2019. Production of pigs recorded the largest decline from 2015 to 2019 with a CAGR of −9.8%.
| Crops | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | CAGR* % 2015-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 265,157,307 | 263,777,750 | 259,256,299 | 257,348,659 | 260,957,662 | −0.4 |
| Rice | 213,723,732 | 212,681,776 | 214,429,949 | 214,078,796 | 211,405,211 | −0.3 |
| Vegetables | 170,484,084 | 173,057,689 | 176,034,792 | 178,967,617 | 181,836,818 | 1.6 |
| Wheat | 132,646,335 | 133,274,638 | 134,246,679 | 131,446,596 | 133,601,131 | 0.2 |
| Sugar cane | 107,728,911 | 103,788,445 | 104,906,005 | 108,718,971 | 109,963,447 | 0.5 |
| Potatoes | 82,893,207 | 84,986,523 | 88,536,429 | 90,321,442 | 91,881,397 | 2.6 |
| Cucumbers | 60,456,875 | 62,119,844 | 64,862,541 | 67,601,863 | 70,338,971 | 3.9 |
| Tomatoes | 55,590,329 | 57,023,280 | 58,968,909 | 60,919,328 | 62,869,502 | 3.1 |
| Watermelons | 62,888,866 | 62,407,633 | 63,357,881 | 61,757,746 | 60,861,241 | −0.8 |
| Sweet potatoes | 54,431,540 | 51,629,591 | 51,691,254 | 53,245,669 | 51,992,156 | −1.1 |
Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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| Livestock | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | CAGR* % 2015-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chickens | 4,792,084,000 | 5,163,507,000 | 5,137,283,000 | 5,191,439,000 | 5,246,980,000 | 2.3 |
| Pigs | 477,319,709 | 463,691,997 | 447,191,581 | 433,756,945 | 316,068,540 | −9.8 |
| Sheep | 162,237,927 | 166,668,004 | 164,079,105 | 161,388,403 | 163,489,800 | 0.2 |
| Goats | 141,833,662 | 145,231,841 | 138,384,396 | 135,892,333 | 137,367,192 | −0.8 |
| Cattle | 63,195,894 | 63,539,179 | 61,987,006 | 63,417,926 | 63,542,332 | 0.1 |
Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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| Meat | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | *CAGR % 2015-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pork | 57,415,740 | 55,208,043 | 55,451,272 | 54,983,660 | 43,481,227 | −6.7 |
| Chicken | 12,636,845 | 13,423,450 | 13,552,347 | 14,790,451 | 15,147,189 | 4.6 |
| Beef | 5,566,157 | 5,565,963 | 5,725,613 | 5,810,117 | 5,942,392 | 1.6 |
Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2021 *CAGR:Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Trade
China is a net importer of agri-food and seafood products. In 2020, China's agri-food and seafood trade deficit was Can$126.9 billion with imports valued at Can$228.8 billion, and Can$101.8 billion in exports. China's agri-food and seafood imports increased at a CAGR of 11.8% from 2016 to 2020. In 2020, China's top agri-food and seafood imports were soybeans, frozen pork, frozen beef, baby food and palm oil. Brazil, the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and Thailand were China's five most important suppliers of agri-food and seafood in 2019.
In 2020, Canada was China's sixth-largest suppliers of agri-food and seafood products. Canada's agri-food and seafood exports to China were valued at Can$9.4 billion in 2020. Canada had an agri-food and seafood trade surplus of Can$4.9 billion with China. Top imports from Canada were canola, dried peas, durum wheat, frozen pork and barley.
| HS Codes | Commodity | Import value Can$ millions | Top suppliers and market share | Canada's share % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||
| 120190 | Soybeans | 52,927.9 | Brazil: 63.5% | United States: 26.5% | Argentina: 7.3% | 0.3 |
| 020329 | Frozen pork | 12,613.4 | Spain: 22.7% | Brazil: 16.2% | United States: 12.5% | 5.9 |
| 020230 | Frozen beef | 12,085.5 | Brazil: 46.3% | Argentina: 21.3% | Australia: 12.1% | 0.8 |
| 190110 | Baby food | 6,991.8 | Netherlands: 34.2% | New Zealand: 25.2% | Ireland: 12.1% | 0.0 |
| 151190 | Palm oil | 5,482.6 | Indonesia: 58.2% | Malaysia: 41.7% | Thailand: 0.1% | |
| 210690 | Food preparations | 5,142.0 | Australia: 22.9% | United States: 22.1% | Thailand: 6.8% | 3.1 |
| 520100 | Cotton | 4,746.2 | United States: 45.2% | Brazil: 29.2% | India: 10.8% | |
| 020714 | Frozen chicken cuts | 4,602.7 | Brazil: 48.3% | United States: 20.9% | Thailand: 10.7% | |
| 030617 | Frozen shrimps | 4,185.1 | Ecuador: 54.5% | India: 19.5% | Argentina: 5.9% | 0.1 |
| 020649 | Edible offal of swine, frozen (excludes livers) | 3,528.1 | Spain: 20.5% | United States: 19.3% | Germany: 12.7% | 7.7 |
| Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2020 | ||||||
In 2020, China's processed food and beverage imports were valued at Can$126.1 billion and Canada's share was 3.8% (Can$4.8 billion). Brazil, New Zealand, the United States, Australia and Indonesia were the largest suppliers of processed food to China, providing 37.7% of the market.
Processed food and beverage imports increased at a CAGR of 16.5% over the period from 2016 to 2020. The fastest growing imports in the last five years were frozen shrimp, frozen pork, frozen beef, frozen chicken cuts and food preparations.
| HS Codes | Products | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Processed food and beverage imports | 68,401.0 | 74,715.7 | 85,325.1 | 107,326.4 | 126,085.5 | 16.5 | |
| 020329 | Frozen pork | 2,922.0 | 1,980.0 | 1,957.1 | 4,798.9 | 12,613.4 | 44.1 |
| 020230 | Frozen beef | 2,913.7 | 3,506.5 | 5,509.0 | 9,537.7 | 12,085.5 | 42.7 |
| 190110 | Baby food | 4,071.6 | 5,265.0 | 6,351.7 | 7,072.7 | 6,991.8 | 14.5 |
| 151190 | Palm oil | 3,791.8 | 4,516.4 | 4,400.3 | 5,414.8 | 5,482.6 | 9.7 |
| 210690 | Food preparations | 1,969.1 | 2,356.6 | 3,530.6 | 4,148.7 | 5,142.0 | 27.1 |
| 020714 | Frozen chicken cuts | 1,621.0 | 1,328.9 | 1,471.6 | 2,609.7 | 4,602.7 | 29.8 |
| 030617 | Frozen shrimp | 591.5 | 611.3 | 1,769.2 | 5,267.6 | 4,185.1 | 63.1 |
| 020649 | Edible offal of swine, frozen (excludes livers) | 3,228.4 | 2,737.8 | 1,962.4 | 2,473.2 | 3,528.1 | 2.2 |
| 020322 | Frozen hams | 1,276.4 | 910.4 | 726.9 | 1,172.4 | 3,303.4 | 26.8 |
| 040221 | Milk and cream in solid forms | 1,420.1 | 1,971.6 | 2,245.2 | 2,887.8 | 2,977.7 | 20.3 |
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2020 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Packaged food retail sales
In 2020, sales of packaged food in China were valued at US$283.9 billion. From 2016 to 2020, sales of packaged food increased by 5.6%. Sales are expected to reach US$366.7 billion in 2025 and increased by 5.3% during the 2021-2025 period.
From 2016 to 2020, staple foods were the category that saw the highest growth with a CAGR of 7.4%. The category was also the one that recorded the largest sales with US$100.3 billion. Within the staple food category, rice, pasta and noodles was the largest subcategory with sales valued $US36.5 billion in 2020, followed by baked goods (US$34.1 billion) and processed meat and seafood (US$26.6 billion).
Dairy products and alternatives were the second most important category with sales valued at US$88.1 billion. From 2016 to 2020, sales within this category grew by 4.2%. Dairy was the most important subcategory within this subcategory with sales valued at US$59.8 billion, followed by baby food (US$28.3 billion).
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total - Packaged food | 228,397.9 | 283,984.8 | 5.6 | 298,005.3 | 366,745.1 | 5.3 |
| Cooking ingredients and meals | 35,172.4 | 45,016.5 | 6.4 | 44,973.5 | 54,112.7 | 4.7 |
| Edible oils | 13,875.9 | 15,908.5 | 3.5 | 15,482.7 | 18,049.6 | 3.9 |
| Ready meals | 5,349.7 | 6,687.8 | 5.7 | 6,455.0 | 7,570.2 | 4.1 |
| Sauces, dressings and condiments | 14,737.8 | 20,959.7 | 9.2 | 21,518.3 | 26,716.3 | 5.6 |
| Soup | 72.5 | 71.8 | −0.2 | 68.7 | 66.6 | −0.8 |
| Sweet spreads | 1,136.5 | 1,388.8 | 5.1 | 1,448.8 | 1,710.0 | 4.2 |
| Dairy products and alternatives | 74,653.0 | 88,114.9 | 4.2 | 93,560.0 | 111,786.6 | 4.6 |
| Baby food | 21,895.6 | 28,319.8 | 6.6 | 28,739.9 | 33,080.7 | 3.6 |
| Dairy | 52,757.4 | 59,795.0 | 3.2 | 64,820.1 | 78,706.0 | 5.0 |
| Snacks | 55,209.4 | 65,173.6 | 4.2 | 70,067.5 | 86,680.4 | 5.5 |
| Confectionery | 13,843.1 | 13,118.8 | −1.3 | 14,169.5 | 15,803.5 | 2.8 |
| Ice cream and frozen desserts | 7,222.1 | 8,950.4 | 5.5 | 9,440.2 | 10,761.6 | 3.3 |
| Savoury snacks | 26,611.5 | 34,987.8 | 7.1 | 38,064.6 | 50,609.8 | 7.4 |
| Sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks | 7,532.6 | 8,116.6 | 1.9 | 8,393.2 | 9,505.4 | 3.2 |
| Staple foods | 75,518.6 | 100,333.7 | 7.4 | 103,946.8 | 132,344.3 | 6.2 |
| Baked goods | 24,580.6 | 34,090.5 | 8.5 | 38,334.3 | 51,902.3 | 7.9 |
| Breakfast cereals | 899.5 | 1,380.1 | 11.3 | 1,562.6 | 2,260.4 | 9.7 |
| Processed fruit and vegetables | 1,314.1 | 1,748.2 | 7.4 | 1,846.8 | 2,327.2 | 6.0 |
| Processed meat and seafood | 20,333.3 | 26,574.7 | 6.9 | 26,388.1 | 32,941.7 | 5.7 |
| Rice, pasta and noodles | 28,391.1 | 36,540.2 | 6.5 | 35,815.1 | 42,912.7 | 4.6 |
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Health and wellness retail sales
The health and wellness sector grew by a CAGR of 5.9% from 2016 to 2020 and is forecast to grow by a CAGR of 5.8% over the 2021-2025 period. Free from allergens and organic beverage products showed the largest growth during the 2016-2020 period. Fortified/functional packaged food is forecast to lead the way into the 2021-2025 period with sales forecast at US$50.4 billion and a CAGR of 4.6%.
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 96,699.4 | 121,623.1 | 5.9 | 129,774.0 | 162,725.0 | 5.8 |
| Better for you (BFY) | 1,671.1 | 2,253.7 | 7.8 | 2,436.4 | 3,115.7 | 6.3 |
| Better for you beverages | 1,120.3 | 1,405.1 | 5.8 | 1,496.8 | 1,927.2 | 6.5 |
| Better for you packaged food | 550.8 | 848.6 | 11.4 | 939.6 | 1,188.4 | 6.0 |
| Fortified/functional (FF) | 47,593.6 | 57,547.2 | 4.9 | 61,156.5 | 72,582.5 | 4.4 |
| Fortified/functional beverages | 15,690.3 | 17,990.6 | 3.5 | 19,101.5 | 22,192.7 | 3.8 |
| Fortified/functional packaged food | 31,903.3 | 39,556.6 | 5.5 | 42,055.0 | 50,389.8 | 4.6 |
| Free from | 15,200.1 | 18,618.8 | 5.2 | 19,003.5 | 22,504.9 | 4.3 |
| Free from allergens | 361.2 | 743.5 | 19.8 | 831.0 | 1,141.4 | 8.3 |
| Free from dairy | 6,136.8 | 5,696.7 | −1.8 | 5,775.4 | 5,667.8 | −0.5 |
| Free from gluten | ||||||
| Free from lactose | 966.1 | 1,460.9 | 10.9 | 1,525.5 | 1,945.6 | 6.3 |
| Free from meat | 7,735.9 | 10,717.6 | 8.5 | 10,871.6 | 13,750.1 | 6.0 |
| Naturally healthy (NH) | 29,841.8 | 39,407.9 | 7.2 | 42,772.7 | 56,426.0 | 7.2 |
| Naturally healthy beverages | 21,583.2 | 28,796.1 | 7.5 | 31,097.3 | 41,438.1 | 7.4 |
| Naturally healthy packaged food | 8,258.6 | 10,611.8 | 6.5 | 11,675.4 | 14,987.9 | 6.4 |
| Organic | 2,392.8 | 3,795.5 | 12.2 | 4,404.9 | 8,095.9 | 16.4 |
| Organic beverages | 34.8 | 57.9 | 13.5 | 64.6 | 90.4 | 8.8 |
| Organic packaged food | 2,358.0 | 3,737.6 | 12.2 | 4,340.4 | 8,005.5 | 16.5 |
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Resources
- Euromonitor international, 2021
- Global Trade Tracker, 2021
- World Bank, 2021. Data: China
Market overview – China
Global Analysis Report
Prepared by: Saidouba Camara, Market Analyst
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