Market Overview – Morocco

Country profile

Morocco is mid sized, developing market with a population of 37.1 million and a GDP of US$142.9 billion. GDP experienced a sharp decline in 2020, however fully recovered in 2021. GDP per capita was US$3.9 thousand. Overall, from 2016-2021, the GDP of Morocco grew at a CAGR of 3.3%.

Production

In 2020, sugar beat was Morocco's most produced crop, with 3.6 million tonnes produced that year, down from 4.2 million in 2016. Wheat was the second most produced crop, with 2.6 million tonnes produced in 2020, down significantly from a 2018 peak of 7.3 million tonnes, but down only slightly from the 2016 figure of 2.7 million tonnes. Potatoes and olives were the next most produced crops of 2020, with 1.7 and 1.4 million tonnes produced respectively. Both these crops registered very modest declines in production since 2016. The fifth most produced crop was tomatoes, with 1.4 million produced in 2020. Tomatoes were also the only one of the top five crops to register positive growth from 2016-2020, with production growth by a CAGR of 2.6% over the period.

In 2020, chicken was Morocco's most produced meat, with 821.5 thousand tonnes produced for the year, a figure which grew by a CAGR of 6.1% from 2016-2020. This category experienced the fastest growth in production of any of the top five most produced meats over the historic period. Cattle was the second most produced meat in 2020, with 282.0k tonnes produced for year. This category experienced more modest growth at a CAGR of 1.8% from 2016-2020.

In 2020, stocks of Moroccan livestock were dominated by chickens, with 207.7 million heads, slightly down from 212.2 million in 2019 but up from 197.0 million in 2016. Growth from 2016-2020 occurred at a CAGR f 1.1% from 2016-2020. Sheep stocks were the second highest with stocks of 22.1 million. Sheep saw the fastest growth in stocks, with the category growing at a CAGR of 2.1% from 2016-2020.

Trade

In 2021, Morocco was a net importer of agri-food and seafood products, with exports of Can$9.4 billion and imports of Can$10.0 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of Can$0.7 billion. Morocco's top import was wheat and meslin (excluding durum wheat), which accounted for 14.4% of their agri-food and seafood imports. The too suppliers of this crop were France with a 29.9% market share, Ukraine with a 25.5% market share, and Argentina with a share of 14.9%. Canada's market whare was 0.4%. Canada's next largest imports were maize, raw cane sugar, and crude soya bean oil, markets for which Canada's market share was non-existent. The fifth largest category was durum wheat, which accounted for Can$537.9 million of Morocco's agri-food and seafood market, a 5.4% market share. Canada dominated this market with a 99.3% share, with the remaining 0.7% share belonging to Spain.

Morocco imported a total of Can$10.0 billion in 2021, a figure which grew at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2017-2021. The largest players in the market were Spain (11.3% market share), Argentina (10.2% market share), Brazil (9.7% market share), France (9.2% market share) and the United States (8.5% market share).

Canada was Morocco's sixth largest supplier, with total exports of US$0.6 billion in 2021, accounting for 6.0% of the market. Canada's exports grew at a CAGR of 12.1% from 2017-2021, faster than the growth rate of Moroccan imports. In 2021, Canada had a trade surplus of Can$476.3 million for the year.

Canada's exports of agri-food and seafood products to Morocco were dominated by durum wheat, which accounted for 89.1% of total Canadian exports, up from 75.3% in 2017. The 12.1% CAGR of Canadian agri-food and seafood exports to Morocco was entirely the result of growth in exports of durum wheat. Canadian exports of durum wheat grew from Can$285.6 million in 2017, while exports of all other categories of agri-food and seafood fell from Can$93.6 million in 2017 to Can$65.3 million in 2021. Canada's next largest export in 2021 was dried shelled lentils, which saw total exports of Can$31.6 million in 2021, down from Can$68.3 million in 2017.

Processed food

Morocco's total imports of processed food beverages were Can$5.5 billion in 2021 and grew at a CAGR of 9.2% from 2017-2021. The largest category was raw can sugar, which saw Moroccan imports of Can$823.8 million in 2021. The category in the top 10 largest imports which saw the fastest growth was shelled fresh or dried almonds, which grew at a CAGR of 120.1% from 2017-2021.

In 2021, Morocco's largest foreign suppliers of processed food and beverages were Spain (16.8% market share), Brazil (14.2% market share), the United States (10.8% market share), France (7.2% market share) and Argentina (6.2%).

Canada was Morocco's fortieth largest supplier, with total exports of Can$15.3 million. This was up from Can$12.9 million in 2017, but down from a 2019 peak of Can$30.5 million. In 2021, Canada had a 0.3% market share and total exports grew at a CAGR of 4.4% from 2017-2021.

Packaged food retail sales

In 2021, Morocco saw a total of US$10.6 billion in retail sales of packaged foods, a figure which rose at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2016-2021. Growth is expected to accelerate to a CAGR of 6.2% from 2021-2026, and total sales are forecast to reach US$14.3 billion in 2026.

The largest category of packaged food retail sales was staple foods, which saw sales of US$5.2 billion, accounted for 49.4% of the market in 2021. The largest subcategory was baked goods, which accounted for 76.1% of staple food sales and 37.6% of total packaged food sales. From 2016-2021, snacks were the category which enjoyed the fastest growth rate (CAGR 5.7%), followed closely by staple foods. (CAGR 5.5%). From 2021-2026 both these categories are forecast to lead the market in growth, with growth occurring at a CAGR of 7.3% for both.

Health and wellness retail sales

Total health and wellness retail sales had a value of US$1.8 billion in 2021, up from US$1.4 billion in 2016. The sector saw growth which occurred at a CAGR of 4.5% from 2016-2021. Growth is expected to accelerate to a CAGR of 7.1% from 2021-2026. The health and wellness sector was dominated by naturally healthy products, which accounted for 63.8% of total sales in 2021.

Foodservice

Total sales of consumer foodservice reached a peak of US$3.9 billion in 2019, however fell dramatically in 2020, contracting 33.8% to US$2.6 billion. The decline in foodservice sales affected all types and locations of consumer foodservice. The sector returned to positive growth in 2021, however only grew a very modest 3.0%, and is nowhere near reversing its pandemic era decline. The sector has been hit by reduced foot traffic among office workers, restrictions on movement, and reduced inbound tourism. Independent foodservice operators have been hit particularly hard. The market as a whole has away from dine in and towards takeout and delivery.

The consumer foodservice sector has been benefiting from the easing of pandemic era restrictions, including the removal of a national curfew in November of 2021. This has especially benefitted foodservice outlets that primarily operate at night, such as full service restaurants and bars. However, the pandemic continues to drive up prices of raw materials, further challenging a struggling sector and leading to inflation. The sector as a whole is not expected to recover until 2026.

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Resources

• Euromonitor international, 2022
• Euromonitor international. Consumer Foodservice in Morocco, April 2022
• Global Trade Tracker, 2022
• FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, 2022

Market Overview – Morocco
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Brendan Dwyer, Student (co-op)

© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food (2023).

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