Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.
Market snapshot
The United Arab Emirates' (UAE) population is 9.8 million people (2021) with 86.8% of the population residing in urban areas and of mainly expatriates of south Asian origin. As tourism ground to a halt and companies laid off employees due to 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, an exodus of expats occurred, contracting the population by around 10%.
The UAE has an open, diversified economy that is worth US$354 billion in 2020, down from US$421.1 billion in 2019.
Dates are the primary domestic crop in the UAE with fresh vegetables representing the bulk of other domestic crop production. Chickens, goats, and sheep are the UAE's most common domestic livestock animals, representing 88.7% of domestic livestock production, with camels and cattle combined representing 11.3%.
Top agri-food and seafood exportsFootnote 1 to the UAE in 2020 were milled rice, canola seeds, food preparations, and tobacco cigarettes. Key exporting countries were India, the U.S., Brazil, and the EU.
Canada was the fifth largest exporter of agri-food and seafood products to the UAE, exporting Can$986.0 million with a 5.1% market share. Top Canadian exports were canola seeds, lentils, durum and non-durum wheat, and shelled peas.
The use of Ecommerce and digital payments skyrocketed during the pandemic, most notably, in food and drink Ecommerce. Retailers improved their online and mobile communications, with many using social media. It is expected that online grocery shopping will continue even when all social distancing measures are removed.
The pandemic had a drastically negative impact on all subsectors of consumer foodservice in the UAE in 2020, primarily due to the impact of national lockdown restrictions, where restaurants were forced to close to eat in patrons for long periods of time.
Consumer profile
The UAE's population is 9.8 million people (2021) with 86.8% of the population residing in urban areas. immigrants make up 87.9% of the total population, mainly of south Asian origin. The population is heavily concentrated in the three largest emirates - Abu Dhabi (1.452 million - capital), Dubai (2.833 million), and Sharjah (1.629 million). Individuals aged 25-54 make up 68.0% of the population.
The UAE has an open, diversified economy that was worth US$354 billion in 2020, down from US$421.1 billion in 2019. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the UAE's gross domestic product (GDP) will rebound to US$401 billion in 2021. Politically and economically, the UAE is seen as one of the most stable and diversified economies in the Middle East.
The pandemic brought great economic disruptions to the UAE, given its high proportion of GDP based on tourism, retail, transport and hospitality. The pandemic also exposed the vulnerability of the UAE's heavy reliance on guest workers. Dubai's private sector workforce is 98% composed of foreigners. Given that 90% of the UAE population is made up of expats with residency linked to employment, the fundamental drivers of retail growth are population and tourist arrivals.
As tourism ground to a halt and companies laid off employees, a subsequent exodus of expats reduced the population by around 10%. The shrinking population significantly depressed consumer spending, putting pressure on retailers and triggering bankruptcies. Wealthier expats are not expected to return to the UAE in droves, with younger, less-paid and inexperienced expats most likely to return to the UAE and fill the void. This is expected to impact shopping patterns and shift focus from premium to mass retailing, fuelled by growth in discounter and mid budget retailers. Pre-pandemic (2019) population levels are not expected to return until mid 2023 at the earliest.
to attract foreign workers, the UAE has introduced legislative changes to encourage expats to live in Dubai long term. This includes allowing expats to qualify for a path to citizenship, a first for the UAE. Also introduced is a five year renewable retirement visa for high net-worth individuals and the relaxation of strict laws, including allowing unmarried couples to live together and the loosening of alcohol rules, which may help to attract high-quality foreign talent. However, demand for expat workers will remain low as the global economic recovery slowly unfolds.
Production
Dates are the primary domestic crop in the UAE with fresh vegetables representing the rest of the UAE's domestic crop production. Fresh vegetable production grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.5% between 2015 and 2019, followed by cucumbers, tomatoes, and fresh fruit..
| Crops | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | CAGR* % 2015-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dates | 402,937 | 410,958 | 344,714 | 345,119 | 323,478 | −5.3 |
| Cucumbers and gherkins | 37,549 | 35,427 | 53,915 | 71,350 | 73,982 | 18.5 |
| Tomatoes | 46,550 | 43,791 | 80,236 | 78,607 | 72,357 | 11.7 |
| Carrots and turnips | 54,600 | 54,119 | 37,674 | 42,023 | 44,731 | −4.9 |
| Vegetables, fresh, nowhere else specified | 7,779 | 8,014 | 11,404 | 10,652 | 32,976 | 43.5 |
| Onions, shallots, green | 26,698 | 25,554 | 25,837 | 26,119 | 26,402 | −0.3 |
| Pumpkins, squash and gourds | 18,455 | 13,103 | 23,762 | 20,501 | 18,537 | 0.1 |
| Eggplants | 18,555 | 15,633 | 20,486 | 20,859 | 16,272 | −3.2 |
| Cabbages and other brassicas | 13,549 | 13,641 | 11,694 | 14,055 | 13,452 | −0.2 |
| Fruit, fresh, nowhere else specified | 9,004 | 8,920 | 9,297 | 10,289 | 11,001 | 5.1 |
|
Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, September 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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| Meat | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | CAGR* % 2015-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goat | 49,000 | 53,000 | 55,000 | 58,387 | 61,557 | 5.9 |
| Chicken | 47,635 | 47,646 | 47,556 | 48,257 | 48,942 | 0.7 |
| Camel | 31,014 | 32,336 | 33,928 | 34,151 | 34,882 | 3.0 |
| Beef | 18,501 | 18,098 | 18,012 | 18,019 | 18,534 | 0.0 |
|
Source: USDA, September 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Goat and chicken are the most common meat produced in the UAE, followed by camel and beef. Goats and sheep are the UAE's most common domestic livestock animals, representing 88.7% of domestic livestock production, with camels, cattle, and chicken combined representing 11.3%.
| Livestock | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | CAGR* % 2015-2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goats | 2,225,532 | 2,244,445 | 2,329,732 | 2,395,166 | 2,437,191 | 2.3 |
| Sheep | 2,134,299 | 2,128,400 | 2,128,755 | 2,147,665 | 2,205,458 | 0.8 |
| Camels | 430,372 | 443,568 | 459,971 | 457,526 | 461,788 | 1.8 |
| Cattle | 110,929 | 108,384 | 106,177 | 104,579 | 105,935 | −1.1 |
| Chickens | 23,183 | 23,441 | 23,587 | 24,130 | 24,673 | 1.6 |
|
Source: FAOSTAT Agricultural Production, September 2021 *CAGR:Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Trade
Top agri-food and seafood exportsFootnote 1 to the UAE in 2020 were milled rice, canola seeds, food preparations, and tobacco cigarettes. Key exporting countries were India, the U.S., Brazil, and the EU. Canada was the fifth largest exporter of agri-food and seafood products to the UAE, exporting Can$986.0 million with a 5.1% market share. Top Canadian exports were canola seeds, lentils, durum and non-durum wheat, and shelled peas.
| Commodity | Export value Can$ millions | Top suppliers and market share | Canada's share % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Milled rice | 749.2 | India: 68.7% | Pakistan: 26.0% | Thailand: 2.6% | 0.0 |
| Canola seeds | 607.4 | Canada: 87.8% | Australia: 4.6% | Germany: 0.1% | |
| Food preparations | 582.2 | India: 79.8% | United States: 13.5% | United Kingdom: 7.0% | 1.3 |
| Tobacco cigarettes | 561.2 | South Korea: 55.7% | Greece: 7.2% | Armenia: 6.2% | 0.0 |
| Powdered milk | 440.5 | New Zealand: 82.3% | Saudi Arabia: 4.7% | Netherlands: 3.7% | |
| Cane sugar | 423.5 | Brazil: 97.9% | India: 0.9% | Singapore: 0.9% | |
| Poultry offal | 390.1 | Brazil: 75.1% | United States: 11.6% | Ukraine: 7.3% | 0.0 |
| Malt extract | 382.6 | Chile: 16.2% | Netherlands: 15.8% | Ireland: 14.5% | |
| Wheat and meslin | 376.1 | Russia: 52.8% | Canada: 16.4% | Australia: 14.5% | 0.0 |
| Alfalfa | 368.3 | Spain: 35.9% | United States: 21.7% | Italy: 21.1% | 1.4 |
| Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2021 | |||||
Processed food and beverage exports to the UAE were valued at Can$11.7 billion in 2019. Brazil, India, the U.S., the EU, and New Zealand were the largest exporters of processed food to the UAE in 2018, providing over 80% of the market. Canada's share was 0.4%. Processed food exports to the UAE fell by a CAGR of −4.9% from 2015 to 2019. The fastest growing exports in the last five years were beef, malt extract, and poultry offal.
| Products | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 14,650.6 | 15,129.2 | 14,004.5 | 14,262.8 | 12,992.8 | −3.0% |
| Milled rice | 1,066.2 | 925.9 | 878.7 | 804.2 | 749.2 | −8.4% |
| food preparations | 578.0 | 531.3 | 524.0 | 604.5 | 582.2 | 0.2% |
| Powdered milk | 350.2 | 523.3 | 447.6 | 395.5 | 440.5 | 5.9% |
| Cane sugar | 367.0 | 634.3 | 457.9 | 264.7 | 423.5 | 3.7% |
| Poultry offal | 431.5 | 500.6 | 470.4 | 557.8 | 390.1 | −2.5% |
| Malt extract | 239.5 | 298.8 | 298.5 | 350.0 | 382.6 | 12.4% |
| Alfalfa | 416.8 | 334.7 | 369.0 | 460.0 | 368.3 | −3.1% |
| Poultry | 375.7 | 341.7 | 325.0 | 387.4 | 329.7 | −3.2% |
| Beef | 243.1 | 239.2 | 337.4 | 462.2 | 314.0 | 6.6% |
| Palm oil | 297.4 | 399.4 | 287.9 | 239.1 | 302.6 | 0.4% |
|
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Retail sales
Packaged food sales increased by a CAGR of 6.2% between 2016 and 2020 with a further increase of 6.1% forecasted to 2025. The best performing segment was rice, pasta and noodles, registering a CAGR of 8.4% from 2016 to 2020. The use of Ecommerce and digital payments skyrocketed during the pandemic, most notably, in food and drink Ecommerce. Retailers responded by improving their online and mobile communications, with many using social media, including WhatsApp and Facebook to drive sales. It is expected that online grocery shopping will continue even when all social distancing measures are removed.
| Products | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 2,216.8 | 2,818.7 | 6.2 | 2,937.8 | 3,727.7 | 6.1 |
| Rice, Pasta and Noodles | 527.7 | 728.8 | 8.4 | 748.0 | 942.0 | 5.9 |
| Baked Goods | 523.9 | 631.3 | 4.8 | 662.7 | 835.7 | 6.0 |
| Sauces, Dressings | 301.5 | 397.6 | 7.2 | 416.8 | 533.4 | 6.4 |
| Processed Meat and Seafood | 262.3 | 331.3 | 6.0 | 346.7 | 455.4 | 7.1 |
| Edible Oils | 213.9 | 244.5 | 3.4 | 254.5 | 307.6 | 4.9 |
| Processed Fruit and Vegetables | 166.6 | 205.8 | 5.4 | 216.1 | 278.1 | 6.5 |
| Sweet Spreads | 91.8 | 120.0 | 6.9 | 125.5 | 164.2 | 7.0 |
| Breakfast Cereals | 89.8 | 109.5 | 5.1 | 114.6 | 144.1 | 5.9 |
| Soup | 23.6 | 29.4 | 5.6 | 31.2 | 40.2 | 6.5 |
| Ready Meals | 15.7 | 20.5 | 6.9 | 21.7 | 27.0 | 5.6 |
|
Source: Euromonitor, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Foodservice market
The pandemic had a drastically negative impact on all subsectors of consumer foodservice in the UAE in 2020, primarily due to the impact of national lockdown restrictions, where restaurants were forced to close to eat in patrons for long periods of time.
Expats were an important consumer base for many subsectors in UAE consumer foodservice. Many expats suffered heavy salary reductions or else were let go during the pandemic. As many expats could no longer afford the high cost of living in Dubai, many left the country, which had a major impact on the industry as a whole, but especially on cafés/pubs as expats were a key consumer base for outlets that served alcohol, as the UAE is an Islamic country.
| Subsector | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 28,106.8 | 20,721.1 | 1.9% | 24,334.5 | 30,886.6 | 6.1% |
| Chained Foodservice | 3,652.2 | 2,917.9 | 1.5% | 3,307.1 | 4,291.8 | 6.7% |
| Independent Foodservice | 10,401.2 | 7,442.7 | 2.1% | 8,860.1 | 11,151.5 | 5.9% |
| Cafés/Bars | 3,116.3 | 2,226.8 | 2.4% | 2,629.2 | 3,662.9 | 8.6% |
| Full-Service Restaurants | 8,038.3 | 5,698.7 | 1.5% | 6,782.6 | 8,406.4 | 5.5% |
| Limited-Service Restaurants | 2,778.0 | 2,318.2 | 2.2% | 2,628.8 | 3,214.1 | 5.2% |
| Self-Service Cafeterias | 55.1 | 55.6 | 8.4% | 59.9 | 77.0 | 6.5% |
| Street Stalls/Kiosks | 65.7 | 61.2 | 6.9% | 66.8 | 82.9 | 5.5% |
|
Source: Euromonitor, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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For more information
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For additional information on Gulfood 2022, please contact:
Ben Berry, Deputy Director
Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
Agriculture and agri-food Canada
ben.berry@agr.gc.ca
Resources
- Global Trade Tracker, Import and export statistics – UAE, 2021
- FAOSTAT Agricultural Production – UAE, 2021
- Euromonitor International:
- Country Report. February 2021. Consumer foodservice in the UAE
- Country Report. March 2021. Retailing in the UAE
- Santandar Bank – United Arab Emirates: Economic and Political outline
- CIA World Factbook – United Arab Emirates
Market Overview – United Arab Emirates
Global Analysis Report
Prepared by: Kris Clipsham, International Market Research Analyst
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