Sector Trend Analysis – Confectionery trends in the United States

Global trade overview of confectionery

The global import market for confectionery has experienced an increase in CAGR of 3.6% from US$39.5 billion in 2018 to US$44.2 billion in 2022. In 2022, Germany was the largest global importer of confectionery valued at US$6.6 billion, (1,339.4 kilotonnes), followed by Belgium with imports valued at US$4.1 billion (936.8 kiltonnes) and Italy with import values of US$2.9 billion (518.4 kiltonnes).

The Germany imported 14.9% of the total world market share for confectionery, representing an increased CAGR of 4.4% from a value of US$5.9 billion (1,172.3 kiltonnes) in 2018. Canada in comparison, was the 5th largest market for confectionery, accounting for 5.8% of the total world market share in 2022 at a value of US$2.6 billion, (569.2 kiltonnes); representing an increased CAGR of 3.9% (2018-2022) from imports valued at US$2.0 billion (522.6 kiltonnes) in 2018.

Confectionery market in the United States

The top three suppliers of confectionery to the United States were Canada (US$2.5 billion, 548.2 kiltonnes), Mexico (US$1.7 billion, 569.5 kiltonnes) and Germany (US$455.2 million and 103.0 kiltonnes) in 2022. Turkey registered the largest increase over the 5-year period (2018 to 2022) at a CAGR of 20.8%, followed by Spain (12.2%), and Poland (9.5%). Alternatively, China registered a negative CAGR of 8.4%, decreasing from a supply value of US$168.2 million in 2018 to US$166.2 million in 2022.

In 2022, top imported confectionery products to the United States were sugar confectionery not containing cocoa (HS code 170490) valued at US$2.9 billion (865.9 kiltonnes), followed by chocolate and other cocoa preparations in packings of ≤2 kilograms (HS Code 180690) valued at US$1.7 billion (262.5 kiltonnes) and chocolate and other cocoa preparations in blocks, slabs or bars weighing >2 kilograms (HS code 180620) valued at US$944.3 million (298.4 kiltonnes).

Canada, being the top supplier of confectionery products to the United States, accounted for 36.3% of the total market share, followed by Mexico (24.6%) and Germany (6.7%) in 2022. Canada was the United States' top supplier for all chocolate and other cocoa confectionery preparations (HS codes:180690, 180620, 180632, 180631), along with chewing gum products (HS code 170410) over the year. Meanwhile, Mexico was the top supplier of sugar confectionery products not containing cocoa (including white chocolate) and sweetened cocoa powder.

Canada's performance

In 2022, top United States' confectionery products imported from Canada were chocolate and other cocoa preparations in blocks, slabs or bars weighing >2 kilograms (HS code 180620) valued at US$673.5 million (239.6 kiltonnes). followed by chocolate and other cocoa preparations in packings of ≤2 kilograms (HS Code 180690) valued at US$639.0 million (103.2 kiltonnes) and sugar confectionery not containing cocoa (HS code 170490) valued at US$489.7 million (118.3 kiltonnes). Chocolate and other preparations containing cocoa, in blocks, slabs or bars of <= 2 kilograms (excluding filled) grew the most in value terms since 2018 at a CAGR of 12.1%; while sweetened cocoa powder decreased by a CAGR of 25.7% between 2018 and 2022.

As reported by the United States, Canada had a supply gap for confectionery products of (US$4.4 billion) with total American imports of US$6.8 billion from the world compared to imports from Canada of US$2.5 billion in 2022.

Canada's confectionery global export market

In 2022, Canada exported US$2.6 billion of confectionery to global markets, representing an increased CAGR of 6.7% from exports valued at US$2.0 billion in 2018. The United States was the largest export market for Canadian confectionery with a market share of (97.1%) valued at US$2.5 billion, followed by Mexico (1.2%) valued at US$30.1 million, and Australia (1.0%) valued at US$7.5 million in 2022.

Several of the top ten suppliers to Canada have registered significantly positive CAGRs between 2018 and 2022, namely being Chile (21.2%), United Kingdom (12.4%), and Mexico (7.2%). Alternatively, markets reporting negative supply growths to Canada were Japan, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong and South Korea.

Global retail sales of confectionery

Global retail sales of confectionery increased by a CAGR of 1.6% from US$187.1 billion in 2018 to US$199.6 billion in 2022 and is expected to continue to increase at a 5-year period growth of 5.2% to reach US$269.9 billion in 2028. The United States was the largest retail sale market for confectionery products at a value of US$44.8 billion, followed by Russia at US$11.3 billion, and United Kingdom valued at US$11.0 billion in 2022.

In 2022, Canada was the 10th largest global confectionery market at a retail sales value of US$4.2 billion and a CAGR of 4.4% (2018 to 2022), which is expected to reach US$6.1 billion increasing by a CAGR of 6.6% (2022 to 2028).

Retail sales of confectionery in the United States

Overall, retail sales of confectionery in United States increased by a CAGR of 6.7% from US$34.5 billion, (2,812.7 thousand tonnes) in 2018 to US$44.8 billion (2,982.4 thousand tonnes) in 2022. Between 2022 and 2028, gum products registered negative value growth by a CAGR of 1.3% and a volume decline of 5.4%.

During the forecast period of 2022 (actual base year) to 2028, confectionery retail sales are expected to continue to increase in value by a CAGR of 1.5% from US$48.8 billion (3,092.2 thousand tonnes) in 2023 to US$61.1 billion (3,387.9 thousand tonnes) in 2028. Sugar confectionery is expected to register the highest growth, followed by chocolate confectionery, and behind by gum products in value (2022-2028).

Competitive landscape

In 2022, the top three confectionery companies in the United States, controlling 57.3% of the total retail market share were Mars Inc at 24.4%, Hershey Co at 24.0%, and Ferrero & related parties at 8.9%. Private label companies represented a 2.5% market share at a value of US$1.1 billion in 2022.

Market segmentation

Chocolate confectionery

In the United States, chocolate confectionery was the largest category of confectionery with retail sales valued at US$24.5 billion, representing an increase of 6.4% in CAGR from retail sales of US$19.1 billion in 2018. The chocolate confectionery category is expected to continue to grow by a CAGR of 5.5% to reach sales of US$33.8 billion by 2028.

Top chocolate confectionery products were chocolate countlines, chocolate pouches and bags, and seasonal chocolate types in 2022. Chocolate products sold with toys registered the highest growth by a CAGR of 14.4%, while all other chocolate confectionery sub-categories had moderate growth over the historic period (2018 to 2022). All chocolate sales did well over last year (2022/2021), and are forecast to experience total growth between 19.8% and 53.6% (2022-2028).

United States' top five chocolate confectionery companies, representing a total market share of 83.8% (US$20.6 billion) were The Hershey Company, Mars Inc., Ferrero & related parties, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, and Nestlé SA in 2022. Private label companies represented a 2.0% market share at a value of US$478.9 million over the last year.

Sugar confectionery

In 2022, sugar confectionery was the 2nd largest confectionery category in the United States with retail sales valued at US$16.9 billion, representing an increased CAGR of 9.3% from retail sales of US$11.9 billion in 2018. The sugar confectionery category is expected to continue to grow by a CAGR of 5.0% to reach sales of US$22.8 billion by 2028.

Top sugar confectionery products were pastilles, gummies, jellies and chews in 2022 and registered the highest growth by a CAGR of 9.6%, while power mints sugar confectionery sub-categories had negative growth over the historic period by 3.6% (2018-2022). All sugar confectionery did well over last year (2022/2021), and are forecast to experience total growth between 12.8% and 48.7% (2022-2028).

United State's top five sugar confectionery companies, representing a total market share of 43.1% (US$7.3 billion) were Ferrero & related parties, Mars Inc., The Hershey Company, Mondelez International Inc., and The Perfetti Van Melle Group in 2022. Private label companies represented a 3.7% market share at a value of US$631.0 million over the last year.

Gum

In 2022, gum was the 3rd largest confectionery category in the United States with retail sales valued at US$3.3 billion, representing a declined CAGR of 1.3% from retail sales of US$3.5 billion in 2018. The gum category is expected to recover and grow by a CAGR of 5.4% to reach sales of US$4.6 billion by 2028.

Chewing gum accounted for 92.0% of sales at a value of US$3.1 billion, with bubble gum having the remainder 8.0% of sales (US$266.1 million) in 2022. Bubble gum registered a positive growth by CAGR of 1.3% while chewing gum registered negative growth by CAGR of 1.6% over the historic period (2018 to 2022 Both confectionery gum types did fine over last year (2022/2021), and are forecast to recover with total growth between 11.8% and 39.0% (2022 to 2028).

The top five gum confectionery companies in the United States, representing a total market share of 92.1% (US$3.1 billion) were Mars Inc., Mondelez International Inc., The Hershey Company, The Perfetti Van Melle Group, and Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. in 2022. Private label companies represented a 0.1% market share at a value of US$2.9 million over the last year.

Retail distribution channels; confectionery product sector (off-trade)

The majority of United States' confectionery market is distributed through store-based retailing (US$44.8 billion) versus non-store retailing (US$3.4 billion) during the historic period, specifically 97.2% (store-based) and 2.8% (non-store e-commerce retailing) in 2022. American grocery retailers distribute most of the confectionery products (US$33.2 billion) representing a market share of 74.1%, mainly within supermarkets and hypermarkets (40.7%), forecourt convenience retailers (12.5%), and grocery warehouse clubs (9.4%) in 2022. The remainder of confectionery products are distributed through non-grocery specialists (17.4%) such as health & beauty specialists (8.4%), general merchandise stores (5.4%), and vending outlets (1.0%) in 2022.

In 2022, online e-commerce sales increased by a CAGR of 36.7% from a value of US$976.6 million in 2018 to $3,410.4 million in 2022.

Product launch and trend analysis

New product launch analysis

Mintel's Global New Products Database (GNPD) indicated that there were 7,027 new confectionery products launched (including new variety/range extension, new product, packaging, formulation or relaunched) in the United States between January 2018 and December 2022. Among which there are 7,023 foods, 3 drinks and 1 pet food.

 

Description of above image

	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	Total Sample
Number of Variants	1,281	1,910	1,150	1,189	1,497	7,027

Source: Mintel, 2023

In 2022, top confectionery sub-categories were seasonal chocolate (331), pastilles, gums, jellies & chews (374), Non-Individually Wrapped Chocolate Pieces (172), Chocolate Tablets (137), and Individually Wrapped Chocolate Pieces (77).

Meanwhile, top claims associated with these new confectionery products released during the prescribed period were Kosher, seasonal, low/no/reduced allergen, gluten free, and social media in 2022. In 2022, preferred flavours (including blends) were unflavoured/plain, strawberry, Cherry, peanut butter and caramel/caramelised.

Top companies launching confectionery food products in the United States between 2018 and 2022 (Jan. - December) were Hershey (457), Mars Wrigley Confectionery (430), Ferrara Candy (189), Sugarfina (187) and Ferrero (175). Top confectionery brands over this period included Sugarfina (158), M&M's (133), Russell Stover (71), Trader Joe's (68), and Hershey's (68).

Opportunities for Canada

The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) that came into force on July 1, 2020, provides Canadian exporters preferential tariff treatment in the form of reduced tariffs, and access to one of the world's largest economies. The tariff treatment of a good exported to the United States depends on its specific tariff classification as determined by the American Customs Service. To benefit from tariff preferences in the United States, Canadian exporters must ensure goods meet applicable rules of origin. The importer must have a valid certificate of origin in their possession at the time of importation.

Canadian exporters may consult the Canada Tariff Finder to explore tariff information for the US market under the CUSMA, and other foreign markets with which Canada has a free trade agreement.

Please visit "Annex 2-B of Chapter 2 of CUSMA" or Global Affairs Canada G-2-2: Sugar-containing products - CUSMA [including sugars and sugar confectionery (HS code chapter 1704) and chocolate confectionery (HS code chapter 1806)] for a list of Canada-specific tariff-free rate quotas for confectionery exports to the United States.

Product examples

For more information

The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service:

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

• Find a Trade Commissioner

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For additional information on the Natural Products Expo East (NPEE) or Americas Food and Beverage Show (AFB), please contact:

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Resources

• Canada Tariff Finder, 2022
• Global Affairs Canada, June 22, 2020: G-2-2: Sugar-containing products – CUSMA
• Global Trade Tracker, 2023
• Government of Canada, May 6, 2022: About CUSMA
• Mintel Global New Products Database, 2023

Sector Trend Analysis – Confectionery trends in the United States
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Hongli, Wang, Senior Market Analyst

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