Sector Trend Analysis – Cooking oil trends in the United States

Production (cooking oils)

High in polyunsaturates and relatively low in cost, soybean oil has emerged as the leading vegetable oil in the U.S. food economy. In recent years, soybean oil production has responded quickly to increased demand, becoming the U.S's number one choice of vegetable oil.

Soybean oil was the largest processed crop in the U.S with a production of 11.3 million tonnes in 2020, representing an increase in CAGR of 3.0% from 10.0 million tonnes processed in 2017. Maize (corn) oil is the second largest processed crop with 1.0 million tonnes in 2020, decreasing by the CAGR of 16.1% from 1.7 million tonnes in 2017, while rapeseed oil increased in CAGR (2.2%) as volume increased from 757,000 tonnes in 2017 to 809,000 tonnes in 2020.

Maize (corn) was the largest crop produced in the U.S with 383.9 million tonnes recorded in 2021, representing an increase in CAGR of 0.9% from 371.1 million tonnes produced in 2017. Soybeans were the second largest crop with production of 120.7 million tonnes in 2021, increasing in CAGR by 0.1% from 120.1 million tonnes in 2017. Cotton seed, green maize and rapeseed experienced a decrease in CAGR of 1.6%, 6.5% and 2.8% from 2017 to 2021.

Global trade overview of cooking oils

The global market for cooking oils has experienced positive growth with a CAGR of 15.3% as imports have increased from US$74.3 billion in 2018 to US$139.1 billion in 2022. India was the largest global market for cooking oils in 2022 with imports valued at US$21.5 billion, (15.5% market share) representing a CAGR of 19.7% from US$10.1 billion in 2018, followed by United States with imports valued at US$12.0 billion (8.6% market share) and the increase in CAGR of 12.2% from US$6.3 billion in 2018 and China, with import values of US$811.5 billion (8.3% market share) in 2022.

The U.S was the 2nd largest global market for cooking oils and experienced a CAGR of 12.2% as imports increased from US$6.3 billion in 2018. Canada in comparison, was the 27th largest global market for cooking oils with values of US$1.1 billion (0.8% market share) in 2022, representing an increase in CAGR of 10.1% from imports valued at US$0.6 billion in 2018.

United States trade overview of cooking oils

The U.S imported US12.0 billion of cooking oils from global markets in 2022 and grew at a CAGR of 12.1%.

Top imported cooking oils to the U.S in 2022 were rape, colza or mustard oil and its fractions (HS code: 1514) valued at US$4.1 billion, followed by palm oil and its fractions (HS code: 1511) valued at US$2.4 billion, and coconut "copra", palm kernel or babassu oil and fractions (HS code: 1513) with values of US$1.9 billion.

The top three suppliers of cooking oils to the U.S was Canada with a 34.8% market share equivalent to US$4.2 billion, followed by Indonesia with a 25.3% market share, equal to US$3.0 billion, and Spain, representing a 7.6% market share with US$0.9 billion in 2022.

Canada's performance

United States imports from Canada

The U.S was the 2nd largest global market for cooking oils with imports valued at US$12.0 billion in 2022. Of these imports, Canada was the largest supplier (representing a 34.8% market share) with imports valued at US$4.2 billion in 2022. Top cooking oil imports from Canada were rape, colza or mustard oil and its fractions, (HS code: 1514) valued at US$3.9 billion, 2.0 billion kilograms, (93.5% market share), followed by soybean oil and its fractions (HS code: 1507) with values of US$180.7 million, 120.8 million kilograms (4.3% market share) and fixed vegetable fats and oils, incl.jojoba oil (HS code: 1515) valued at US$87.3 million, 83.3 million kilograms (2.09% market share) in 2022.

Canada's export market

In 2022, Canada exported US$5.2 billion, 2.9 billion kilograms of cooking oils to global markets. The U.S was the largest export market for Canadian cooking oils (81.5% market share) valued at US$4.2 billion, 2.3 billion kilograms, followed by Mexico (6.5% market share) with values of US$336.0 million, 187.6 million kilograms and China (5.6% market share) valued at US$288.6 million, 186.4 million kilograms in 2022.

The U.S was the largest export market for Canadian cooking oils in 2022. The top supplying Canadian provinces to the U.S market were Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta occupying market shares of 51.2%, 17.7% and 16.4% respectively in 2022. Top cooking oil exports from Canada to the U.S were rape, colza or mustard oil and its fractions (HS code: 1514) with values of US$2.2 billion, 2.1 billion kilograms, followed by soybean oil and its fractions (HS:1507) valued at US$124.7 million, 120.9 million kilograms, and fixed vegetable fats and oils, incl.jojoba oil (HS code: 1515) with values of US$99.7 million, 83.8 million kilograms in 2022.

Retail markets

Global retail sales of cooking oils

Global retail sales of cooking oils have increased moderately in CAGR by 7.5% from US$84.4 billion in 2017 to US$121.0 billion in 2022 and are expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.4% as retail sales attain US$164.7 billion by 2027. India was the largest global market for cooking oils with retail sales of US$24.6 billion (20.4% market share), followed by China with values of US$17.8 billion (14.7% market share) and Brazil, with retail sales of US$6.5 billion (5.4% market share) in 2022.

The United States (U.S) was the 4th largest global retail sales market for cooking oils with values of US$5.4 billion, representing a 4.4% market share in 2022. The U.S experienced an increase in CAGR of 8.1% as retail sales grew from US$3.6 billion in 2017 and are expected to further improve with an increase in CAGR of 5.7% in the forecast period as retail sales are anticipated to achieve US$7.1 billion by 2027. In comparison, Canada was the forty-seventh largest retail sales market for cooking oils, accounting for a 0.4% retail sale market share with values of US$513.9 million in 2022. Similarly, Canada is also expected to achieve positive growth with an increase in CAGR of 5.7% in the forecast period as retail sales attain US$676.8 million by 2027.

United States retail sales of cooking oil

The top three cooking oil categories in the U.S, in terms of retail value sales in 2022, were olive oil with values of US$2.0 billion (37.9% market share) increasing at a CAGR of 8.7% from US$1.3 billion in 2017, followed by soy oil valued at US$1.5 billion (27.7% market share), representing an increase in CAGR of 6.9% from US$1.1 billion in 2017 and rapeseed oil with values of US$713.5 million (13.3% market share) and increasing in CAGR by 6.7% from US$514.8 million in 2017.

Growth in the cooking oil category is expected to be strongly positive with a larger CAGR of 5.7% as retail sales reach US$7.1 billion by 2027. Relatedly, all cooking oil categories are expected to attain larger CAGR's in the forecast period. Olive oil in particular, is expected to increase in CAGR by 6.7% achieving US$2.8 billion by 2027, while corn oil is also expected to perform well attaining an increase in CAGR of 5.3% with values of US$860.4 million by 2027.

Competitive landscape

The U.S cooking oil market remained a fragmented industry throughout 2017 to 2022. ConAgra Brands Inc (Brand name; Pam and Wesson) was the largest cooking oil company in the U.S with retail sales of US$546.8 million (10.2% market share), while Deoleo SA (Brand name; Bertolli), the second largest cooking oil company, attained US$381.1 million (7.1% market share) in 2022. Private label cooking oil companies continue to show a strong presence in the cooking oils market with retail sales of US$2.0 billion (36.8% market share) in 2022, increasing their total market share slightly since 2017.

Retail distribution channels; cooking oil product sector (off-trade)

The majority of the U.S's cooking oil market is distributed through store-based retailing versus non-store retailing. Store-based retailing for cooking oils accounted for a 90.0% market share in 2022, declining from 96.8% held in 2017, while non-store retailing, e-commerce in particular, increased its market share representation to 10.0% in 2022, growing from 3.2% held in 2017. Further, within store-based retailing, hypermarkets and supermarkets were the predominant distribution channels for cooking oils representing market shares of 38.7% and 37.2% respectively, in 2022.

New product launch analysis

The pandemic changed how consumers approach their health, shifting emphasis from reactive 'quick-fixes' to a more holistic and long-term approach to building one's health and wellness. For many, making dietary changes has helped them to feel more in control and protected against potential ill health. In fact, 41% of U.S consumers agree that changes in their diets and eating habits have helped them feel more in control of their health, (Mintel, July 2022).

According to Mintel's Global New Products Database (GNPD), there were 1,108 new cooking oil products launched in the U.S between January 2018 and December 2022. The number of yearly product launches has increased by a CAGR of 7.6% from the launch of 202 cooking oil products in 2018 to its most recent launch of 271 cooking oil products in 2022.

Spectrum Culinary, Signature Select and Giant Eagle were top brands of newly released cooking oil product launches while kosher (782 products), GMO free (408 products) and Organic (305 products) were top claims. Top price groupings for cooking oils in $USD were $0.99 - 8.98, followed by $0.99 - 4.98 and $8.99 - 12.98.

Bottle (816 products), Aerosol (190), and jar (54 products) were the predominant package types released, while new variety/range extension (396 products), new packaging (390 products) and new product (256 products) launch types were the leading product attributes of new products released between January 2018 and December 2022.

Unflavoured/plain, Garlic and Roasted/Toasted were top flavours (including blends), while Extra Virgin Olive Oil, Low Erucic Acid Rapeseed Oil and Coconut Oil were top ingredients identified during this period.

Examples of new products

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Resources

• Euromonitor International 2023
• Euromonitor International:
  • Country Report. Edible Oils in the U.S, December 2022.
• Global Trade Tracker, 2023
• Mintel Global New Products Database, 2023
• Mintel, A year of innovation in butter, spreads and oils, July 4, 2022.

Sector Trend Analysis – Cooking oil trends in the United States
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Hongli Wang, Market Analyst

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