Sector Trend Analysis – Fish and seafood trends in Sweden

Trade overview

In 2021, Sweden was the ninth largest market (3.3% market value share) for fish and seafood in the world with imports valued at US$5.5 billion (845.7 million kilograms). Sweden experienced a CAGR of 2.9% as imports increased from US$5.0 billion (733.2 million kilograms) in 2017 (9.4% from US$5.1 billion in 2020).

Canada was the fourteenth largest market in fish and seafood, accounting for 2.2% of the total world market share (representing US$3.7 billion and 582.0 million kilograms) in 2021.

Sweden's supply network of fish and seafood products is mainly reliant on its European neighbors, with Norway being its most significant trading partner. In 2021, the top three suppliers of fish and seafood to Sweden were Norway, representing a 88.3% market share (US$4.9 billion, 748.8 million kilograms), Denmark, representing a 3.7% market share (US$206.8 million, 37.3 million kilograms) and Poland, representing a 1.4% market share (US$79.0 million and 8.2 million kilograms). Canada was Sweden's twelfth largest supplier of fish and seafood products, representing a 0.2% market value share, providing US$13.4 million and 0.8 million kilograms in 2021.

Top imported fish and seafood products to Germany were Atlantic or Danube salmon, fresh or chilled, valued at US$3.4 billion, (503.6 million kilograms) in 2021, followed by fresh or chilled fillets of Pacific, Atlantic, and Danube salmon, valued at US$460.7 million (47.1 million kilograms), and frozen fillets of Pacific, Atlantic and Danube salmon, valued at US$258.2 million (22.8 million kilograms).

Top five global fish and seafood suppliers by top three products to Sweden, in US$ millions, historical

Canada's performance

Canada was Sweden's twelfth largest supplier of fish and seafood products, representing a 0.2% market value share, providing US$13.4 million and 0.8 million kilograms in 2021. This represented a −4.8% decrease in growth rate for fish and seafood imports from US$16.3 million registered in 2017. Top imports from Canada in 2021 include frozen lobsters, whether in shell or not, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water (HS: 030612), valued at US$4.4 million (0.2 million kilograms), followed by prepared or preserved shrimps or prawns not in airtight containers (excluding smoked) (HS: 160521), valued at US$2.0 million (0.2 million kilograms) and Lobsters, live, fresh or chilled, whether in shell or not (HS: 030632), valued at US$1.8 million (0.1 million kilograms).

Retail sales by category and distribution

Fish and seafood experienced steady increased sales in 2021, following the struggles and impact that the covid-19 pandemic had on the Swedish economy and foodservice sector in 2020. As the pandemic continued throughout 2021, the Swedish government continued to enact restrictions in order to curb the spread, especially in regards to new variants. Throughout the lockdown period where people remained in home seclusion, retail sales for fish and seafood increased with constant 2021 prices growing by 5.7%. This increase can be attributed to several factors. Despite foodservice sales returning to the path of recovery in 2021, covid-19 remains a major threat for consumers, although more people have started to eat outside again. As well, many consumer trends from 2020, including increased home seclusion, with many employees still working from home leading to more homecooked meals that has continued to boost retail sales in supermarkets and e-commerce, with both of these distribution channels recording relatively strong growth in 2021. .

Historic retail sales of fish and seafood in Sweden has increased by 5.7% in CAGR from US$2.3 billion in 2017 to US$2.8 billion in 2021 and is expected to further increase in CAGR by 5.3% attaining US$3.6 billion by 2026. Both crustaceans and molluscs and cephalopods experienced positive growth in the historic period while all categories are expected to obtain positive growth in the forecasted period. Retail sales of fish experienced the greatest historical growth between 2017 to 2021, from US$2.1 billion in 2017 to US$2.6 billion in 2021 (24.9% increase), represented by a CAGR of 5.7%, and is expected to grow to US$3.3 billion (28.0% increase from 2021) by 2026, with an expected CAGR of 5.2% from 2022 to 2026. This was followed closely by retail sales of crustaceans, experiences a positive growth of 5.6% during the historic period from 2017 to 2021 from US$180.3 million to US$224.1 million, and is expected to experienced the greatest growth in the forecasted period from 2022 to 2026 with a CAGR of 6.6% with forecasted sales reaching US$303.9 million by 2026.

Healthy images of fish and seafood allow it to remain popular among consumers, especially in comparison to meat. Although fish consumption has been fluctuating in recent years due to different annual catches, demand is expected to increase slightly in the coming years. Perceived as a healthier alternative to meat, as well as due to the the minimal amounts of fish substitute products has allowed fish and seafood to trend towards greater consumption and retail growth in the future. However, the issues of sustainability and the impacts of commercial fishing is a topic that is often brought to the forefront by the media and viewed critically by Swedish society.^{Footnote 1}

Retail sales of processed seafoods is set to perform better than many meat categories over the forecasted period, from US$588.2 million in 2017 to US$681.1 million in 2021 with a CAGR of 3.7%, and forecasted to grow to US$836.3 million by 2026, with a forecasted CAGR of 4.9% from 2022 to 2026. Chilled processed seafood experiencing the greatest historical growth from US$161.9 million in 2017 to US 207.3 million in 2021, representing a 6.4% CAGR, further being forecasted to grow to US$282.1 million by 2026, with a CAGR of 6.9% from 2022 to 2026.

Chilled processed seafood is expected to outperform shelf stable and frozen processed seafood over the forcecasted period as consumers opt for fresher and perceived healthier or tastier options. Chilled processed seafood is considered healthier and less processed as well as more convenient than the other options. In contrast, shelf stable processed seafood is expected to see further decline, despite being the largest processed seafood category, with recorded retail sales of US$383.3 million in 2021. However, shelf stable seafoods will experienced the slowest growth among processed seafood with a historic CAGR of 2.3% from 2017 to 2021 and a forecasted CAGR of 3.5% from 2022 to 2026, in contrast to chilled and frozen processed seafoods which are forecasted to grow at a respective 6.9% and 5.7% during the same period. Shelf stable processed seafoods have developed an unhealthy reputation and with consumers becoming increasingly health conscious there seems to be a declining opportunity in boosting future growth in this sector.^{Footnote 2}

In 2021, retail sales of processed meat and seafood across various distribution channels in Sweden were valued at US$2.6 billion, representing an increase in growth rate of 4.0% from US$2.2 billion in 2017. Store-based retailing was the primary retail channel valued at US$2.4 billion (CAGR of 2.7% from US$2.2 billion in 2017) through which processed meat and seafood was distributed (92.8% market share) with modern grocery retailers, specifically supermarkets and hypermarkets as the largest channels, with retail sales of US$1.4 billion and US$618.1 million respectively, accumulating a combined market share representation of 79.6% of processed meat and seafood in 2021.

Non-store retailing experienced an increase in growth rate of 37.0%, attaining retail sales of US$184.3 million in 2021 from US$52.4 million in 2017 under its sole category of e-commerce as covid-19 and more at-home living and working influencing its presence as a distribution channel (7.2% market share in 2021).

Competitive landscape

The processed seafood retail market in Sweden was slightly dominated by brand labels (60.3%) in comparison to private labels, which represented 31.4% of the market share in 2021. Orkla Group was the largest processed seafood company with retail sales of US$227.9 million representing a 33.5% market share in 2021. Royal Greenland A/S experienced the largest growth rate of 7.2% as retail sales increased from US$24.3 million in 2017 to US$32.2 million in 2021.

Shelf stable seafood was the largest category (56.3% market share) within processed seafood with retail sales of US$383.3 million in 2021. Orkla Group was the largest shelf stable seafood company, dominating its competition, with retail sales valued at US$227.9 million, representing a 59.4% market share in shelf stable seafood in 2021.

Brands Abba (Orkla Group) and Kalles Kaviar (Orkla Group) were the two largest brands in processed seafood with a respective 19.4% and 9.9% market share in 2021. The brand Royal Greenland from Royal Greenland A/S experienced the largest growth rate of 3.5% as its market share percentage increased from 4.1% in 2017 to 4.7% in 2021.

New product launch analysis

According to Mintel's Global New Products Database (GNPD), there were 438 fish and fish products launched in Sweden between January 2017 and December 2021. Of those fish products released, 216 were processed fish products, 108 were pet products and 51 were released as meal and meal center products.

In terms of new products launches containing fish and fish products as an ingredient, 2017 and 2018 had the highest product launches, 112 and 108 respectively. The top sub-categories of products offered were fish products, wet cat food and prepared meals in the prescribed period of January 2016 to December 2020. Top claims (may contain more than one claim per package) were ethical-environmentally friendly, ethical-sustainable (habitat/resources) packages and pet - adult. Top package types were trays, flexible and flexible stand-up pouch products. These were launched primarily as new variety/range extensions and new products. Top flavours (including blends) identified were unflavoured/plain, smoke and salmon, while top ingredients identified were fish and fish products, Atlantic salmon and salmon.

Examples of new product launches

Opportunities for Canada

In 2021, Sweden was the ninth largest market (3.3% market value share) for fish and seafood in the world with imports valued at US$5.5 billion (845.7 million kilograms). Sweden experienced a CAGR of 2.9% as imports increased from US$5.0 billion (733.2 million kilograms) in 2017 (9.4% from US$5.1 billion in 2020).

Canada was the fourteenth largest market in fish and seafood, accounting for 2.2% of the total world market share (representing US$3.7 billion and 582.0 million kilograms) in 2021.

Canada was Sweden's twelfth largest supplier of fish and seafood products, representing a 0.2% market value share, providing US$13.4 million and 0.8 million kilograms in 2021. This represented a −4.8% decrease in growth rate for fish and seafood imports from US$16.3 million registered in 2017. Top imports from Canada in 2021 include frozen lobsters, whether in shell or not, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water (HS: 030612), valued at US$4.4 million (0.2 million kilograms), followed by prepared or preserved shrimps or prawns not in airtight containers (excluding smoked) (HS: 160521), valued at US$2.0 million (0.2 million kilograms) and Lobsters, live, fresh or chilled, whether in shell or not (HS: 030632), valued at US$1.8 million (0.1 million kilograms).

About CETA, The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)

With CETA, 98% of EU tariff lines are now duty-free for Canadian goods, and an additional 1% will be eliminated over seven years. Tariff elimination provides enhanced export opportunities into the EU market for Canadian producers, processors, and manufacturers, as well as for agricultural and agri-food products, fish and seafood, forestry goods, and the full range of industrial goods.

How does CETA benefit Canadian fish and seafood exporters? (Global Affairs Canada, 2021)

• Under CETA, almost 96% of EU tariff lines for fish and seafood products have become duty-free. 100% of these tariff lines will be duty-free after seven years.
• Before the CETA, EU tariffs for fish and seafood averaged 11% and could be as high as 25%.

For more information, please visitOpportunities and Benefits of CETA for Canada's Fish and Seafood Exporters.

In addition, please consult the Canada Tariff Finder to explore tariff information for the CPTPP market, and other countries with which Canada has a free trade agreement.

For more information

The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service:

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

• Find a Trade Commissioner

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For additional information on Seafood Expo Global, please contact:

Ben Berry, Deputy Director
Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
Agriculture and agri-food Canada
ben.berry@agr.gc.ca

Resources

• Euromonitor International 2022. Processed meat, seafood, and alternatives to meat in Sweden. Country Report, December 2021
• Global Affairs Canada, Opportunities and Benefits of CETA for Canada's Fish and Seafood Exporters.
• Global Affairs Canada, About CETA
• Global Trade Tracker, 2022
• Mintel 2022. A year of innovation in fish & fish substitutes, 2021. Report, January 2022
• Mintel Global New Products Database, 2022

Sector Trend Analysis – Fish and seafood trends in Sweden
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Richard Lin, International Market Research Analyst

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