Sector Trend Analysis – Meat trends in Japan

Japan's meat production

For market year 2021, Japan meat production (pork, chicken and beef) totaled 4.2 million tonnes, with pork accounting for 1.3 million tonnes, chicken for 2.4 million tonnes and beef for 478 thousand tonnes. Pork, chicken and beef production saw steady growth from 2017 to 2021.

Japan's trade summary

Of the top ten meat suppliers to Japan by value, Canada was ranked as the 4th largest (valued at US$1,231.6 million in 2022) and accounted for 8.6% of the global market share to Japan in 2022. The largest supplier was the United States, with exports valued at US$3.9 billion in 2022. Due to the strong demand for meat, six of the top 10 countries exporting meat to Japan had a steady CAGR from 2018 to 2022, ranging from 13.7% (Mexico) to as low as 2.3% (United States). In contrast, the CAGR of Thailand, Australia, China and Denmark were −1.4%, −2.9%, −5.1 and −5.0% respectively during the same period.

Of the top 10 meat suppliers to Japan by volume, Canada also ranked as the 4th largest in 2022, exporting 290 thousand tonnes and accounting for 9.4% of the total world exports (3.1 million tonnes). Canada slightly declined at a CAGR of −0.8% from 2018 to 2022, while Spain reached the highest CAGR of 13.6%, among the top 10 suppliers.

Among the top 10 meat the world exported to Japan in 2022, frozen meat of swine was the largest, reaching US$2.8 billion, followed by meat or offal of fowls of the species, prepared or preserved, reaching US$2,3 billion and fresh or chilled bovine meat, boneless, reaching US$1.97 billion. Overall, the growth from 2018 to 2022 was a CAGR 1.5%.

Among the top 10 meat that the world exported to Japan in 2022, frozen meat of swine was the largest, reaching 664.2 thousand tonnes, followed by frozen cuts and edible offal of fowls of the species gallus domesticus, reaching 547.1 thousand tonnes and meat or offal of fowls of the species, prepared or preserved, reaching 518.9 thousand tonnes. Overall, the total meat export growth from 2018 to 2022 was a CAGR −0.6%.

In 2022, the top three U.S. meat products exported to Japan were fresh/chilled boneless bovine meat at US$1.1 billion, fresh or chilled meat of swine at US$865.9 million and frozen, boneless meat of bovine animals at US$667.2 million. Prepared or preserved shoulders and cuts thereof, of swine recorded the highest CAGR of 185.4% from 2018 to 2022.

In 2022, the top three U.S. meat products exported to Japan were fresh or chilled meat of swine at 188.9 thousand tonnes, frozen, boneless meat of bovine at 128.4 thousand tonnes and fresh or chilled bovine meat, boneless at 123.0 thousand tonnes. Prepared or preserved shoulders and cuts thereof, of swine recorded the highest CAGR of 136.3% from 2018 to 2022.

In 2022, Canada's top meat exports to Japan were fresh or chilled swine at US$603.1 million, followed by frozen, boneless meat of bovine at US$172.5 million and frozen meat of swine at US$105.5 million. Fresh or chilled edible offal of bovine animals had the highest CAGR of 52.9% from 2018 to 2022. Compared with 2021, the export of meat to Japan in 2022 dropped 10.2% in value.

In terms of trade volume, Canada's top exports in 2022 were fresh or chilled meat of swine at 145.3 thousand tonnes, and frozen, boneless meat of bovine at 34.6 thousand tonnes and. Frozen edible bovine offal had the highest CAGR of 5.3% from 2018 to 2022. Compared with 2021, the export of meat to Japan in 2022 dropped 3.2% in volume.

In terms of export value broken down by Canadian province, Alberta led with a value of US$500.4 million in 2022, which accounted for 41% of Canada's total meat exports to Japan. Manitoba ranked second, exporting US$367.1 million in 2022, followed by Quebec at US$181.0 million.

In terms of export volume by province, Manitoba exported 102,887.5 tonnes of meat to Japan in 2022, followed by Alberta at 96,389.2 tonne and Quebec at 44,377.7 tonnes. Ontario registered the highest CAGR of 9.4% from 2018 to 2022.

From 2021 to 2022, Canada's pork and products export dropped in value by −18.7%, from US$1,007.1 million in 2021 to US$818.3 million in 2022 even though the CAGR was increasing at 0.8% from 2018 to 2022.

From 2021 to 2022, Canada's pork and products export dropped in volume by −7.9%, from 240,043.6 tonnes in 2021 to 220,979.6 tonnes in 2022 while the CAGR was decreasing at −4.4% from 2018 to 2022.

From 2021 to 2022, Canada's beef and products export increased in value by 14.3%, from US$349.7 million in 2021 to US$399.7 million in 2022 while the CAGR was increasing at 28.5% from 2018 to 2022.

From 2021 to 2022, Canada's beef and products export increased in volume by 16.6%, from 58,159.7 tonnes in 2021 to 67,798.9 tonnes in 2022 while the CAGR was increasing at 20.5% from 2018 to 2022.

Consumption and spending

1) Market size

The total volume of sales of meat in Japan reached 3.9 million tonnes in 2022. Pork accounted for the largest volume of meat sold in Japan in 2022 at 1.8 million tonnes (46.1% of the total meat sales), followed by poultry at 1.3 million tonnes and beef at 0.8 million tonnes. Meat sales in all categories decreased from 2018 to 2022. Beef and veal had the lowest CAGR of −3.6%. It is forecast that by 2027, total meat sales in Japan will reach 4.2 million tonnes. Pork and beef are projected to have a CAGR of 1.9% for both, followed by poultry at 1.2% from 2023 to 2027.

Meat may face a potential competitor in plant-based alternatives. "With the prices of meat expected to continue increase, the competitive price of meat and seafood substitutes could possibly benefit these products. Furthermore, rising concerns over sustainability in the food chain could also lead to more consumers looking to cut back on their meat consumption." (Euromonitor, Country Report 2022)

Per capita consumption of meat by Japan consumers was 31.4 kilograms (kg) in 2022, down from 32.5 kg in 2018, and it is projected to reach 34.7 kg by 2027. Only pork has the positive growth at a CAGR of 0.2% from 2018 to 2022.

Compared with Canadian consumers, Japan consumers consume half of what Canadian do but will increase their meat consumption in the next five years from 2023 to 2027.

2) Retail sales value

The value of the Japan meat sector increased from US$34.6 billion in 2018 to US$37.1 billion in 2022, registering a CAGR of 2.1%. The sector is expected to reach US$41.6 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 2.3% from 2023 to 2027.

3) Leading companies and brands in the Japanese processed meat sector

NH Foods Ltd (US$1,066.1 million), Itoham Yonekyu Holdings Inc (US$986.7 million) and Prima Meat Packers Ltd (US$746.0 million) are the leading companies in the Japanese processed meat sector.

NH Foods Ltd recorded 10.9% share, Itoham Yonekyu Holdings Inc recorded 10.1% share while Prima Meat Packers Ltd recorded 7.6% share. Nippon Suisan Kaisha Ltd had the biggest growth at a CAGR of 18.9% from 2018 to 2022.

The top three brands in the Japan processed meat sector in 2022 were Prima Ham (US$746.0 million), Marudai (US$452.6 million) and Schan Essen (US$256.4 million). Mori no Kaori registered the highest market share growth at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2018 to 2022.

The top three brands in the Japan processed meat sector in 2022 were Prima Ham (7.6%). Marudai (4.6%) and Schan Essen (2.6%). Ajinomoto registered the highest market share growth at a CAGR of 7.5% from 2018 to 2022.

Opportunities for Canada

The benefits of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

The CPTPP gives Canadian agriculture and agri-food products preferential market access to key export markets, including Japan. Under the agreement, tariffs will be eliminated or reduced on a wide range of Canadian exports for the agricultural sector, including meat, grains, pulses, maple syrup, wines and spirits, seafood, and other agri-food products.

Japan eliminated tariffs on close to 32% of tariff lines on agriculture and agri-food products after the CPTPP entered into force on December 30, 2018. A further 9% of tariff lines will provide preferential tariff treatment through permanent quotas and country-specific quotas for Canada. The remaining tariff lines will provide tariff elimination or reductions over a period of up to 20 years, or reductions of the in-quota or out-of-quota tariffs. Read the Global Affairs Canada overview of the CPTPP and Canada's agriculture and agri-food sector for more information.

In March, 2023, Canada gained processed beef access to Japan.

In May 2019, Canada also obtained expanded market access to Japan for beef from cattle older than 30 months. Based on industry estimates, the expanded access announced has the potential to further increase exports of beef by up to 20% (Canada expands beef access to Japan, providing a boost for middle class farming families).

One of the first steps before entering the market is to determine whether a product is authorized for sale in Japan. Restrictions due to phytosanitary or food safety concerns can prevent a product from being imported. Products must meet Japanese regulations for food ingredients, especially with regard to food additives.

Exporters are strongly recommended to work with the local import agent, the distributor and the end user to make sure the products are in compliance with Japanese regulations and all proper documentation has been completed. For more information, please consult the following resources: Exporting food out of Canada (Canadian Food Inspection Agency), Step-by-Step Guide to Exporting (Trade Commissioner Service of Canada).

Exporters should also determine the import classification and tariff rate for products. The Tariff Finder tool can assist exporters in determining tariff information for specific products and countries where Canada has a free trade agreement. Additionally, Japan Customs has a website for requesting an advance ruling on tariff classifications, which is available to importers and related parties.

For more information

The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service:

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

• Find a Trade Commissioner

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Resources

• Euromonitor 2023
• Euromonitor, Country Report, Meat in Japan, December 2022
• FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) 2023
• Global Trade Tracker, 2023

Sector Trend Analysis – Meat trends in Japan
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Hongli Wang, Market Analyst

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