Sector Trend Analysis – Meat trends in the United States

The United States' meat production

For market year 2022, the US meat production (chicken, beef and pork) totaled 44.7 million tonnes, with chicken accounting for 19.6 million tonnes, beef for 12.9 million tonnes and pork for 12.3 million tonnes. Chicken, beef and pork production saw steady growth from 2018 to 2022.

The United States' trade summary

Of the top ten meat suppliers to the US by value, Canada was ranked as the largest (valued at US$4,859.8 million in 2023) and accounted for 34.7% of the global market share to the US in 2023. The 2nd largest supplier was Australia, with exports valued at US$2,685.8 million in 2023. Due to the strong demand for meat, all the top 10 countries exporting meat to the US had a steady CAGR from 2019 to 2023, ranging from 96.4% (Argentina) to as low as 0.3% (Nicaragua).

Of the top 10 meat suppliers to the US by volume, Canada also ranked as the largest in 2023, exporting 847.8 thousand tonnes and accounting for 38.8% of the total world exports (2.2 million tonnes). Canada increased at a CAGR of 6.0% from 2019 to 2023, while Argentina reached the highest CAGR of 94.6%, among the top 10 suppliers.

Among the top 10 meat the world exported to the US in 2023, fresh or chilled bovine meat, boneless was the largest, reaching US$4.3 billion, followed by frozen, boneless bovine, reaching US$3.2 billion and fresh or chilled bovine cuts, reaching US$982.1 million. Overall, the growth of the total meat from 2019 to 2023 was a CAGR 9.2%.

Among the top 10 meat that the world exported to the US in 2023, frozen, boneless bovine was the largest, reaching 562.2 thousand tonnes, followed by fresh or chilled bovine, boneless, reaching 503.0 thousand tonnes and fresh or chilled swine, reaching 185.7 thousand tonnes. Overall, the total meat export growth from 2019 to 2023 was a CAGR 4.8%.

In 2023, Canada's top meat exports to the US were fresh or chilled bovine at US$2.2 billion, followed by fresh or chilled swine at US$570.0 million and fresh or chilled bovine cuts at US$433.6 million. Frozen, boneless bovine had the highest CAGR of 28.1% from 2019 to 2023. Compared with 2022, the export of meat to the US in 2023 increased at 3.6% in value.

In terms of trade volume, Canada's top exports in 2023 were fresh or chilled bovine at 286.2 thousand tonnes, and fresh or chilled swine at 181.5 thousand tonnes and fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts thereof of swine at 67.2 thousand tonnes. Frozen, boneless bovine had the highest CAGR of 22.6% from 2019 to 2023. Compared with 2022, the export of meat to the US in 2023 dropped 3.3% in volume.

In terms of export value broken down by Canadian province, Alberta led with a value of US$2.4 billion in 2023, which accounted for 50.2% of Canada's total meat exports to the US. Ontario ranked second, exporting US$1.1 billion in 2023, followed by Quebec at US$949.1 million.

In terms of export volume by province, Alberta exported 328,221.9 tonnes of meat to the US in 2023, followed by Ontario at 253.475.0 tonne and Quebec at 173.008.4 tonnes. New Brunswick registered the highest CAGR of 27.0% from 2019 to 2023.

From 2022 to 2023, Canada's pork and products export dropped in value by −15.8%, from US$1,576.1 million in 2022 to US$1,327.3 million in 2023 even though the CAGR was increasing at 9.1% from 2019 to 2023.

Top three were fresh or chilled swine (US$570 million), fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts thereof of swine (US$202.2 million) and frozen swine (US$110.8 million) in 2023.

From 2022 to 2023, Canada's pork and products export dropped in volume by −10.5%, from 477.7 thousand tonnes in 2022 to 427.5 thousand tonnes in 2023 while the CAGR was increasing at 7.7% from 2019 to 2023.

Top three were fresh or chilled swine (181.5 thousand tonnes), fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts (67.2 thousand tonnes) and frozen swine (38.5 thousand tonnes) in 2023.

From 2022 to 2023, Canada's beef and products export increased in value by 12.9%, from US$2,649.6 million in 2022 to US$2,991.8 million in 2023 while the CAGR was increasing at 14.1% from 2019 to 2023.

Top three were fresh or chilled bovine (US$2,192.7 million), fresh or chilled bovine cuts (US$433.6 million) and frozen, boneless bovine (US$119.1 million) in 2023.

From 2022 to 2023, Canada's beef and products export increased in volume by 3.9%, from 361.0 thousand tonnes in 2022 to 375.2 thousand tonnes in 2023 while the CAGR was increasing at 4.3% from 2019 to 2023.

Top three were fresh or chilled bovine boneless (286.2 thousand tonnes), fresh or chilled bovine cuts (33.8 thousand tonnes) and frozen boneless bovine (21.7 thousand tonnes) in 2023.

Consumption and spending

1) Market size

The total volume of sales of meat in the US reached 23.0 million tonnes in 2023. Poultry accounted for the largest volume of meat sold in the US in 2023 at 11.9 million tonnes (51.6% of the total meat sales), followed by beef and veal at 6.9 million tonnes and pork at 3.9 million tonnes. Meat sales increased at 2.2% from 2019 to 2023. Poultry had the largest CAGR of 3.5%. It is forecast that by 2028 total meat sales in the US will reach 25.6 million tonnes. Poultry is projected to have a CAGR of 3.4%, followed by lamb, mutton and goat at 2.2% from 2023 to 2028.

Although 2023 has shown some positive deflationary activity for fresh poultry, aiding retail volume recovery, the year has displayed grim signs of recovery for beef. Evolving consumer trends, production costs, as well as legal tensions have all contributed to sluggish growth (Euromonitor 2023).

Per capita consumption of meat by the US consumers was 68.7 kilograms (kg) in 2023, up from 63.9 kg in 2019, and it is projected to reach 74.6 kg by 2028. The meat had positive growth at a CAGR of 1.8% from 2019 to 2023. Poultry had the biggest growth at 3.1% while lamb, mutton and goat remain unchanged at 0.0% from 2019 to 2023.

2) Retail sales value

The value of the US meat sector increased from US$80.8 billion in 2019 to US$108.9 billion in 2023, registering a CAGR of 7.7% from 2019 to 2023. The sector is expected to reach US$135.1 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 4.4% from 2023 to 2028.

3) Leading companies and brands in the US processed meat sector

Tyson Foods Inc (US$7,323.2 million in 2023), Kraft Heinz Co (US$4,591.9 million in 2023) and Hormel Foods Corp (US$3,531.9 million in 2023) are the leading companies in the US processed meat sector. The CAGR growth for Tyson Foods Inc was 11.4% from 2019 to 2023.

Tyson Foods Inc recorded 15.7% share in 2023, Kraft Heinz Co recorded 9.8% share while Hormel Foods Corp recorded 7.5% share in 2023. Perdue Farms Inc had the biggest growth at a CAGR of 2.2% from 2019 to 2023.

The top three brands in the US processed meat sector in 2023 were Oscar Mayer (US$4,591.9 million), Tyson (US$3,108.5 million) and Smithfield (US$1,516.0 million). Tyson registered the highest market share growth at a CAGR of 16.3% from 2019 to 2023.

The top three brands in the US processed meat sector in 2023 were Oscar Mayer (9.8%). Tyson (6.6%) and Smithfield (3.2%). Tyson registered the highest market share growth at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2019 to 2023.

Opportunities for Canada

The benefits of Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)

On November 30, 2018, Canada, the United States, and Mexico signed an agreement to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). This new agreement will reinforce the strong economic ties between the three countries and support well-paying middle-class jobs for Canadians. Subsequently, on December 10, 2019, Canada, the United States and Mexico agreed to update certain elements of CUSMA to improve the final outcome and clear the path toward ratification and implementation of the agreement in all three countries.

CUSMA will maintain the tariff-free market access from NAFTA, and includes updates and new chapters to address modern-day trade challenges and opportunities. Since negotiations began in August 2017, Canada engaged constructively and pragmatically with our NAFTA partners to achieve a good deal for Canadians.

The agreement provides key outcomes for Canadian businesses, workers and communities in areas such as labour, environment, automotive trade, dispute resolution, culture, energy, and agriculture and agri-food. Importantly, CUSMA also includes language on gender and Indigenous peoples' rights.

Facilitating trade in goods

NAFTA eliminated virtually all tariffs between Canada, the US and Mexico, with very few exceptions. CUSMA maintains these benefits and ensures that the vast majority of North American trade will continue to be duty-free. Additionally, a new chapter on customs administration and trade facilitation standardizes and modernizes customs procedures throughout North America to facilitate the free-flow of goods. There are also important improvements to disciplines on technical barriers to trade that will make it easier for Canadian businesses to export goods within the CUSMA region.

As a result of this agreement, Canada agreed to have de minimis thresholds for express courier import shipments of Can$150 for duties and Can$40 for taxes at the point or time of importation.

Agriculture

CUSMA will preserve existing agriculture commitments between Canada, the US and Mexico, and help bring together an already highly integrated North American industry. Canada secured a number of beneficial outcomes for agriculture including:

• New market access in the form of tariff rate quotas for refined sugar and sugar-containing products, as well as certain dairy products;
• A modernized Committee on Agriculture Trade, which will provide a forum for Parties to address issues and trade barriers; and,
• Obligations for agricultural biotechnology that will increase innovation, transparency and predictability.

The Government defended the supply management system from strong US attempts to see it dismantled. As part of the overall balance of the Agreement, Canada will:

• Provide new market access for the US in the form of tariff rate quotas for dairy, poultry and egg products;
• Eliminate current milk classes 6 and 7, and calculate component prices for skim milk powder, milk protein concentrates and infant formula based on a US reference price; and
• Establish a mechanism to monitor exports of skim milk powder, milk protein concentrates and infant formula. These products will be subject to surcharges if exports exceed an agreed threshold. (Government of Canada: Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), 2020)

For more information

The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service:

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

• Find a Trade Commissioner

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For more information on America Food and Beverage show 2024, please contact:

Cecile Landgrebe | Trade Commissioner
Phone: (404) 406-4912
Consulate General of Canada | Trade Commissioner Service
1175 Peachtree Street, NE, Suite 1700
Atlanta, GA 30361 | USA
www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca

Resources

• Euromonitor 2024
• Euromonitor, Country Report, Meat in the US, December 2023
• FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) 2023
• Global Trade Tracker, 2024
• Government of Canada: Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), 2020-01-28

Sector Trend Analysis – Meat trends in the United States
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Hongli Wang, Market Analyst

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