Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.
Executive summary
In 2023, global agri-food and seafood imports reached Can$2.8 billion, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% since 2019. Greater China, comprising Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, led this market with a 13.2% share, growing at a robust 9.8% CAGR. The United States (US) followed with a 10.9% share and an 8.3% CAGR, while Germany, the Netherlands, France, and the United Kingdom (UK) also maintained solid positions. Italy and Spain posted notable expansion, and emerging markets like Mexico, Poland, and India demonstrated strong growth exceeding 11%.
Greater China's agri-food and seafood imports totaled Can$373.5 billion in 2023, driven by Brazil's dominance as the top supplier, holding a 22.1% market share and a robust 17.6% CAGR. The US, despite trade tensions, remained a key player with a 13.7% share and 15.8% CAGR. Regional suppliers like Australia, New Zealand, and Thailand captured substantial market shares, reflecting growing demand for premium products. Canada, with a 3.9% share, showed strong performance in specific categories such as canola seed, where it commanded 100.0% of the market, and barley (23.0%), though its presence in major categories like soybeans, food preparations, and frozen beef remained minimal.
China's import landscape is shaped by rising domestic demand for premium, traceable food products, geopolitical partnerships with Brazil and Russia, and a strategy to diversify food sources to ensure food security amid global volatility. Key products like soybeans, frozen beef, and maize continue to drive imports, alongside niche items like durians and frozen poultry cuts and offal.
Canada's agri-food and seafood exports to Greater China in 2023 totaled Can$14.7 billion, with canola seed dominating the portfolio. Other significant exports included barley, durum wheat, and lobsters. Canada's opportunities lie in expanding market share in sectors like peas, frozen beef, and seafood, while mitigating declines in processed products like canola oil.
Provincially, Saskatchewan led Canada's exports to China, followed by Alberta and Manitoba, with Manitoba achieving an impressive 35.6% CAGR. Despite some declines from provinces like Nova Scotia and Quebec, Canada remains well-positioned to expand its market share, especially in high-potential sectors such as pulses, seafood, and premium products like maple and ginseng.
Global trade overview of agri-food and seafood
In 2023, global agri-food and seafood imports reached Can$2.8 billion, growing at a CAGR of 6.8% since 2019. Greater China (including Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) led with a market share of 13.2% and a CAGR of 9.8%, followed by the US with 10.9% and a CAGR of 8.3%. Germany, the Netherlands, France, and the UK maintained solid positions with growth rates of around 6-7%. Italy (9.1%) and Spain (9.9%) also saw significant expansion. Emerging markets like Mexico (11.9%), Poland (11.3%), and India (11.6%) demonstrated strong growth.
| Country | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | CAGR* % 2019-2023 | Marker share % in 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 2,169.3 | 2,219.4 | 2,438.7 | 2,815.5 | 2,825.8 | 6.8 | 100.0 |
| Greater China | 256.6 | 282.7 | 331.6 | 364.2 | 373.5 | 9.8 | 13.2 |
| United States | 223.4 | 231.2 | 257.3 | 308.8 | 306.7 | 8.3 | 10.9 |
| Germany | 141.7 | 147.8 | 153.2 | 168.6 | 185.0 | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| Netherlands | 98.0 | 102.9 | 109.5 | 123.9 | 129.2 | 7.2 | 4.6 |
| France | 85.2 | 86.9 | 93.2 | 103.2 | 112.9 | 7.3 | 4.0 |
| United Kingdom | 89.1 | 90.5 | 85.6 | 102.8 | 112.8 | 6.1 | 4.0 |
| Japan | 99.5 | 95.7 | 97.1 | 110.1 | 105.1 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| Italy | 67.9 | 66.9 | 72.6 | 85.3 | 96.3 | 9.1 | 3.4 |
| Spain | 56.0 | 54.8 | 61.7 | 74.8 | 81.6 | 9.9 | 2.9 |
| Belgium | 53.0 | 55.6 | 59.9 | 65.9 | 70.3 | 7.3 | 2.5 |
| Canada (11th) | 52.2 | 53.7 | 57.1 | 67.3 | 68.9 | 7.2 | 2.4 |
| Mexico | 37.9 | 36.1 | 45.6 | 57.2 | 59.4 | 11.9 | 2.1 |
| South Korea | 44.0 | 44.9 | 50.2 | 60.9 | 57.9 | 7.1 | 2.0 |
| Poland | 32.2 | 35.2 | 37.3 | 44.9 | 49.4 | 11.3 | 1.7 |
| Vietnam | 35.4 | 30.1 | 35.1 | 49.9 | 46.8 | 7.2 | 1.7 |
| India | 29.4 | 29.0 | 38.2 | 48.5 | 45.6 | 11.6 | 1.6 |
| Indonesia | 26.9 | 26.3 | 31.1 | 37.4 | 38.0 | 9.0 | 1.3 |
| Saudi Arabia | 29.1 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 36.9 | 36.9 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| Turkey | 22.0 | 23.0 | 25.8 | 35.0 | 35.4 | 12.6 | 1.3 |
| Russia | 40.4 | 40.5 | 43.3 | 35.4 | 35.2 | −3.4 | 1.2 |
|
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Greater China's agri-food and seafood import market
In 2023, Greater China's agri-food and seafood imports reached Can$373.5 billion, with a 9.8% CAGR from 2019. Brazil was the top supplier, holding a 22.1% market share, driven by a robust 17.6% CAGR. The US followed with a 13.7% share, despite a recent decline, achieving a 15.8% CAGR. Australia and Thailand both captured 5.4% of the market, while New Zealand and Canada accounted for 4.2% and 3.9%, respectively. Russia and Viet-Nam showed strong growth with CAGRs of 25.1% and 17.6%. Other notable suppliers included Indonesia, France, and Chile, while Argentina and Germany experienced slight contractions.
| Country | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | CAGR* % 2019-2023 | Market share % in 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 256.6 | 282.7 | 331.6 | 364.2 | 373.5 | 9.8 | 100.0 |
| Brazil | 43.3 | 51.6 | 60.2 | 71.3 | 82.7 | 17.6 | 22.1 |
| United States | 28.5 | 39.2 | 56.2 | 61.6 | 51.2 | 15.8 | 13.7 |
| Australia | 18.0 | 15.9 | 15.4 | 18.3 | 20.3 | 3.1 | 5.4 |
| Thailand | 11.9 | 13.5 | 17.8 | 19.1 | 20.3 | 14.2 | 5.4 |
| New Zealand | 13.8 | 13.9 | 16.1 | 17.4 | 15.6 | 3.1 | 4.2 |
| Canada (6th) | 10.7 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 10.7 | 14.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 |
| Indonesia | 8.9 | 8.9 | 12.8 | 14.8 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 3.9 |
| Russia | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 25.1 | 3.2 |
| France | 8.4 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.0 |
| Viet-Nam | 5.5 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 17.6 | 2.8 |
| Chile | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 |
| Argentina | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 7.8 | −3.9 | 2.1 |
| Netherlands | 5.7 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Japan | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| India | 4.1 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 1.4 |
| Malaysia | 4.3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 1.4 |
| Ecuador | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 14.4 | 1.4 |
| Ukraine | 3.3 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 10.7 | 1.3 |
| Germany | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 | −4.6 | 1.0 |
| Spain | 3.4 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
|
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Greater China's agri-food and seafood import landscape is shaped by a combination of geopolitical alignment, rising domestic consumer demand, and economic strategies aimed at diversifying food sources to safeguard food security amid global volatility.
Politically, China's strategic partnerships with countries like Brazil and Russia have strengthened, with Brazil becoming the largest supplier in 2023, reflecting robust economic ties and agricultural cooperation. Brazil's 22.1% market share, with a 17.6% CAGR, underscores its crucial role in China's food security strategy (Carla Aranha, 2023), especially amid global uncertainties and trade tensions (DeWaal, Michel and Rao, 2023). Russia's rapid growth (25.1% CAGR) highlights the impact of enhanced bilateral relations, possibly influenced by geopolitical shifts and China's desire to diversify away from traditional Western suppliers like the US (Genevieve &Zhang, 2024). The US remains a significant player with a 13.7% market share, but its growth has slowed in recent years. This could be attributed to the US-China trade tensions and tariffs imposed during the trade war, which have cooled economic cooperation (Tortajada & Zhang, 2022).
Social factors, particularly rising domestic demand for diverse and higher-quality food (Huld & Interesse, 2023), are driving imports from countries like Australia and New Zealand, which supply premium products such as dairy and seafood (David Adamsm 2024, NZTE 2023). China's middle class, coupled with concerns about food safety, has fueled demand for premium, traceable imports from reliable partners. Thailand and Indonesia's strong growth reflects regional trade integration efforts and China's increasing reliance on ASEAN suppliers (ASEAN, 2023).
Economically, China's focus on securing stable food sources in light of global supply chain disruptions is evident. The diversification of suppliers (David Steinberg & Yeling Tan, 2024 ), including Vietnam and Ecuador (with significant CAGRs of 17.6% and 14.4%, respectively), reflects efforts to mitigate risks related to over-reliance on a few key suppliers. At the same time, the global economic downturn and inflationary pressures have affected countries like Argentina (Sonia Avalos, 2024 &LVVN Attaché Network, 2024) which saw declines in market share.
In 2023, Greater China's agri-food and seafood imports totaled Can$373.5 billion, led by soya beans, which accounted for Can$81.9 billion (21.9% of the market) with a robust 14.1% CAGR from 2019 to 2023. Frozen beef followed, contributing Can$18.2 billion (4.9% share) and growing at 10.4%. Maize imports surged with a 50.5% CAGR, reaching Can$13.9 billion (3.7% share). High-demand items like food preparations (Can$10.4 billion, 2.8% share) and fresh durians (Can$9.6 billion, 2.6% share) saw significant growth, with durians posting a 36.1% CAGR. Other notable imports include frozen poultry cuts (Can$6.5 billion), palm oil (Can$7.2 billion), and frozen shrimps (Can$8.1 billion), each contributing around 2% to 1.9% of the market share. Meanwhile, infant food preparations (Can$6.1 billion) and frozen swine meat (Can$4.9 billion) saw declines in market share.
| HS Code | Description | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | CAGR* % 2019-2023 | Market share % in 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agri-Food and Seafood | 256.6 | 282.7 | 331.6 | 364.2 | 373.5 | 9.8 | 100.0 | |
| 120190 | soya beans | 48.3 | 54.3 | 68.4 | 80.6 | 81.9 | 14.1 | 21.9 |
| 020230 | frozen beef | 12.2 | 14.9 | 15.8 | 22.3 | 18.2 | 10.4 | 4.9 |
| 100590 | maize | 2.7 | 4.5 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 13.9 | 50.5 | 3.7 |
| 210690 | food preparations | 6.5 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 2.8 |
| 081060 | fresh durians | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 36.1 | 2.6 |
| 030617 | frozen shrimps and prawns | 6.1 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 2.2 |
| 151190 | palm oil | 5.6 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 1.9 |
| 020714 | frozen poultry cuts and offal | 4.1 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 12.0 | 1.7 |
| 190110 | infant food preparations | 7.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.1 | −5.2 | 1.6 |
| 520100 | cotton | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 100390 | barley | 2.1 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 25.1 | 1.4 |
| 020329 | frozen meat of swine | 5.7 | 13.6 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 4.9 | −4.1 | 1.3 |
| 120510 | low erucic acid rape or colza seeds | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 32.8 | 1.3 |
| 080929 | fresh cherries | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 1.2 |
| 230120 | fish meal | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 9.9 | 1.1 |
| 100199 | wheat and meslin | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 67.7 | 1.1 |
| 020649 | edible offal of swine, frozen | 3.2 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 1.0 |
| 151411 | low erucic acid rape or colza oil | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 19.9 | 1.0 |
| 040221 | milk and cream | 5.0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.2 | −10.5 | 0.9 |
| 220421 | wine of fresh grapes | 4.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | −9.8 | 0.8 |
|
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Greater China's agri-food and seafood import dynamics in 2023 are shaped by various factors. The large middle class and urbanization are driving demand for diverse, premium food products such as soya beans (21.9% market share), frozen beef (4.9%), and fresh durians (2.6%), reflecting preferences for protein-rich diets and exotic fruits. Rising health consciousness and preference for safe, traceable foods have boosted imports of food preparations (12.6% CAGR) and convenient, protein-rich items like frozen poultry cuts (12% CAGR) and frozen shrimps (7.4% CAGR). However, agricultural development in China has lagged behind consumption needs, particularly for soya beans and maize, leading to a 50.5% CAGR for maize imports. Meanwhile, growing demand for plant-based oils has driven imports of rapeseed (32.8% CAGR) and colza oil (19.9% CAGR). Economic challenges have led to fluctuating imports in sectors like frozen swine meat (−4.1% CAGR) and milk (−10.5% CAGR), while wheat imports surged (67.7% CAGR) as China diversifies its food sources amid global food supply chain disruptions.
In 2023, Greater China's agri-food and seafood imports totaled Can$373.5 billion, led by key suppliers such as Brazil (22.1%), the U.S. (13.7%), and Australia (5.5%), with Canada holding a 3.9% share. Canada showed strong performance in specific sectors, commanding 100.0% of the canola seed market (Can$4.7 billion) and 23.0% of the barley market (Can$5.1 billion). It also had a notable presence in frozen pork (7.6%) and low erucic acid rape oil (6.1%). However, Canada's share was minimal in large categories like soya beans (1.6%), food preparations (2.4%), and frozen shrimps (0.06%), and absent in key areas like frozen beef, maize, and infant food preparations.
| HS Code | Description | Import value | Top suppliers and market share % | Canada's share | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Agri-Food and Seafood | 373.5 | Brazil: 22.1 | United States: 13.7 | Australia: 5.5 | 3.9 | |
| 120190 | soya beans | 81.9 | Brazil: 68.6 | United States: 26.1 | Argentina: 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 020230 | frozen beef | 18.2 | Brazil: 45.6 | Argentina: 14.2 | United States: 11.6 | |
| 100590 | maize | 13.9 | Brazil: 46.5 | United States: 27.9 | Ukraine: 17.6 | |
| 210690 | food preparations | 10.4 | United States: 21.0 | Australia: 12.7 | Germany: 9.9 | 2.4 |
| 081060 | fresh durians | 9.6 | Thailand: 69.1 | Vietnam: 30.5 | Malaysia: 0.2 | |
| 030617 | frozen shrimps and prawns | 8.1 | Ecuador: 59.3 | India: 13.8 | Thailand: 5.4 | 0.06 |
| 151190 | palm oil | 7.2 | Indonesia: 72.6 | Malaysia: 27.2 | Myanmar: 0.1 | |
| 020714 | frozen poultry cuts and offal | 6.5 | Brazil: 42.5 | United States: 24.6 | Thailand: 11.4 | 0.01 |
| 190110 | infant food preparations | 6.1 | Netherlands: 41.2 | New Zealand: 29.9 | Ireland: 8.1 | |
| 520100 | cotton | 5.8 | United States: 40.6 | Brazil: 27.8 | Australia: 14.0 | |
| 100390 | barley | 5.1 | France: 32.6 | Canada: 23.0 | Argentina: 20.4 | 23.0 |
| 020329 | frozen meat of swine | 4.9 | Brazil: 34.3 | Spain: 22.4 | Canada: 7.6 | 7.6 |
| 120510 | canola seed | 4.7 | Canada: 100 | 100.0 | ||
| 080929 | fresh cherries | 4.4 | Chile: 92.3 | United States: 4.0 | New Zealand: 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 230120 | fish meal | 4.2 | Peru: 25.5 | Vietnam: 13.9 | India: 8.8 | |
| 100199 | wheat and meslin | 4.0 | Australia: 72.0 | United States: 11.6 | France: 10.4 | 0.2 |
| 020649 | edible offal of swine, frozen | 3.8 | United States: 28.1 | Spain: 22.1 | Netherland: 10.5 | 8.1 |
| 151411 | low erucic acid rape or colza oil | 3.6 | Russia: 55.5 | United Arab Emirates 11.9 | Belarus: 10.2 | 6.1 |
| 040221 | milk and cream | 3.2 | New Zealand: 70.3 | Australia: 12.9 | Netherland: 8.2 | |
| 220421 | wine of fresh grapes | 3.1 | France: 52.2 | Australia: 13.8 | Chile: 8.6 | 0.4 |
| Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024 | ||||||
Canada's performance
In 2023, Greater China's agri-food and seafood imports from Canada reached Can$14.7 billion, reflecting a CAGR of 8.2% from 2019 to 2023. Canola seed dominated the import portfolio, making up nearly a third of the total share. Soya beans, durum wheat, and barley were also significant contributors.
Canola seed (HS 120510) remained the top agri-food import, with a value of Can$4.7 billion in 2023 and a strong CAGR of 34.7%. This growth can be attributed to increasing demand for oilseeds used in edible oil and meal production. Similarly, soya beans (HS 120190) saw a recovery after a significant dip in 2020, reaching Can$1.3 billion in 2023, though the negative CAGR of −1.2% reflects volatility over the period. Meanwhile, durum wheat (HS 100119) and barley (HS 100390) demonstrated robust growth, with 2023 import values of Can$1.3 billion and Can$1.2 billion, respectively. The consistent rise in these commodities highlights the growing demand for high-quality wheat and barley for food production and animal feed.
Processed products also performed well, with canola oilcake (HS 230641) reaching Can$995.5 million in 2023 and a CAGR of 14.1%. In contrast, canola oil (HS 151411) experienced a steep decline, with a negative CAGR of −32.0%.
The seafood sector showed steady growth, particularly for live, fresh, or chilled lobsters (HS 030632), which reached Can$851.6 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.6%. Frozen cold-water shrimps and prawns (HS 030616) also grew, reaching Can$288.8 million with a CAGR of 11.7%. Despite some declines in other categories, such as frozen halibut (HS 030331), which fell by 4.0% CAGR, seafood remains an essential component of Canada's export portfolio to Greater China.
However, certain products experienced more volatility. Dog or cat food (HS 230910), once a growing category, dropped to Can$101.8 million in 2023 with a negative CAGR of −18.1%. Raw bovine/equine hides and skins (HS 410150) also declined slightly, while products like frozen pork cuts (HS 020322) saw mixed performance over the period.
| HS Code | Description | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | CAGR* % 2019-2023 | Share % in 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agri-Food and Seafood | 10,687.3 | 10,525.0 | 11,721.2 | 10,693.5 | 14,654.5 | 8.2 | 100.0 | |
| 120510 | canola seed | 1,419.1 | 1,336.6 | 1,805.0 | 1,987.7 | 4,675.7 | 34.7 | 31.9 |
| 120190 | soya beans | 1,405.0 | 216.1 | 481.2 | 708.9 | 1,340.6 | −1.2 | 9.1 |
| 100119 | durum wheat | 666.5 | 883.9 | 1,012.9 | 1,054.3 | 1,328.2 | 18.8 | 9.1 |
| 100390 | barley | 540.3 | 649.1 | 1,257.6 | 840.1 | 1,173.0 | 21.4 | 8.0 |
| 230641 | canola oilcake | 587.7 | 620.5 | 744.5 | 1,071.8 | 995.5 | 14.1 | 6.8 |
| 071310 | dried peas | 758.7 | 1,022.5 | 900.6 | 969.8 | 910.5 | 4.7 | 6.2 |
| 030632 | lobsters, live, fresh or chilled | 636.0 | 481.1 | 698.6 | 692.8 | 851.6 | 7.6 | 5.8 |
| 020329 | frozen meat of swine | 358.9 | 810.2 | 460.0 | 203.6 | 368.7 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| 020649 | edible offal of swine, frozen | 240.8 | 291.2 | 155.9 | 137.2 | 309.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 |
| 030616 | frozen cold-water shrimps and prawns | 185.7 | 136.9 | 127.5 | 270.3 | 288.8 | 11.7 | 2.0 |
| 210690 | food preparations | 169.4 | 212.7 | 209.1 | 227.1 | 247.1 | 9.9 | 1.7 |
| 030633 | crabs, live, fresh or chilled | 146.9 | 117.0 | 129.0 | 153.7 | 236.1 | 12.6 | 1.6 |
| 151411 | canola oil | 1,035.5 | 1,132.2 | 1,257.1 | 521.9 | 221.2 | −32.0 | 1.5 |
| 020322 | frozen pork cuts | 172.5 | 543.4 | 349.3 | 165.8 | 154.7 | −2.7 | 1.1 |
| 121120 | ginseng roots | 218.9 | 145.6 | 147.7 | 89.4 | 124.2 | −13.2 | 0.8 |
| 410150 | raw bovine/equine hides and skins | 136.7 | 93.6 | 120.9 | 128.7 | 117.6 | −3.7 | 0.8 |
| 230910 | dog or cat food | 226.6 | 474.0 | 383.6 | 219.8 | 101.8 | −18.1 | 0.7 |
| 030331 | frozen halibut | 110.5 | 55.2 | 78.1 | 80.8 | 93.7 | −4.0 | 0.6 |
| 030772 | frozen shellfish variety | 82.1 | 61.5 | 76.4 | 81.7 | 78.6 | −1.1 | 0.5 |
| 030791 | live/fresh molluscs | 49.1 | 40.2 | 55.0 | 66.5 | 72.5 | 10.2 | 0.5 |
|
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Greater China's agri-food and seafood import market – Sector prioritization forecast
Utilizing a modeling tool (a quantitative and qualitative quadrant-based analysis to determine and identify Canada's market share in a given international market), Global Analysis (AAFC, Market Access Secretariat) has identified the following sectors (product categories) as those with the most potential (growth patterns) within the Greater China agri-food and seafood import market, while meeting Canada's production capacity to fulfill.
- canola products
- barley
- peas
- food preparations
- soybeans
- frozen beef
- durum wheat
- lobsters
- cold-water shrimps
- canary seeds
- ginseng roots
- sea cucumbers
- corn (maize)
- shrimps and prawns
- crabs
- maple products
- offal of swine
In 2023, Canada's total agri-food and seafood exports to Greater China reached Can$12,337.4 million, with significant contributions from Saskatchewan (Can$4,399.3 million, 35.7% share), Alberta (Can$3,173.2 million, 25.7% share), and Manitoba (Can$1,635.1 million, 13.3% share). Manitoba led with a remarkable 35.6% CAGR, followed by Saskatchewan's 20.7% CAGR. Nova Scotia and Quebec saw declines, with Nova Scotia's exports slightly dropping and Quebec experiencing flat growth. Other provinces like Ontario, British Columbia, and New Brunswick showed moderate growth, while Prince Edward Island's exports remained stable.
| Province | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | CAGR* % 2019-2023 | Share % in 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 7,606.3 | 10,236.0 | 10,221.4 | 10,260.1 | 12,337.4 | 12.9 | 100.0 |
| Saskatchewan | 2,070.8 | 3,009.7 | 3,592.2 | 3,360.7 | 4,399.3 | 20.7 | 35.7 |
| Alberta | 2,049.5 | 2,788.1 | 2,714.0 | 2,662.9 | 3,173.2 | 11.6 | 25.7 |
| Manitoba | 483.7 | 935.4 | 827.6 | 1,289.6 | 1,635.1 | 35.6 | 13.3 |
| Nova Scotia | 820.9 | 640.0 | 726.8 | 738.0 | 790.5 | −0.9 | 6.4 |
| Ontario | 673.0 | 789.4 | 756.5 | 728.7 | 715.6 | 1.6 | 5.8 |
| British Columbia | 596.9 | 560.5 | 485.3 | 527.1 | 658.5 | 2.5 | 5.3 |
| Quebec | 592.3 | 1,262.0 | 787.9 | 533.8 | 582.3 | −0.4 | 4.7 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 208.5 | 175.8 | 217.1 | 224.8 | 227.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| New Brunswick | 74.1 | 47.3 | 84.9 | 157.9 | 118.6 | 12.5 | 1.0 |
| Prince Edward Island | 36.6 | 27.7 | 29.2 | 36.6 | 36.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
|
Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2024 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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For more information
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Resources
- Arendse Huld and Giulia Interesse, 2023: China's Middle Class – Growth, Policy, and Consumption
- ASEAN, 2023: ASEAN-China Joint Statement on Deepening Agricultural Cooperation
- Carla Aranha, 2023: China Invests in Infrastructure in Brazil with an Eye on Food Security
- Caroline Smith DeWaal, David Michel and Xudong Rao, 2023: China's Food Security Challenges
- Cecilia Tortajada and Hongzhou Zhang, 2022: Policies and Politics: Effects on US-China Soybean Trade
- David Adams, 2024: "Premium" branding helping small Australian producers stand out in China
- David Steinberg and Yeling Tan, 2024: How will China respond to Biden's tariffs? Look at Trump's trade war
- Genevieve Donnellon-May and Zhang Hongzhou, 2024: The Sino-Russian Land Grain Corridor and China's Quest for Food Security
- Global Trade Tracker, 2024
- LVVN Attaché Network, 2024: ARGENTINA: Agro-industry highlights in 2023
- NZTE, 2023: Research shows New Zealand's growing reputation for premium F&B
- Sonia Avalos, 2024: Argentina has surplus harvest, but farmers want more from Milei
Sector Trend Analysis – Trade Overview – Greater China
Global Analysis Report
Prepared by: Zhi Duo Wang, Market Analyst
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