Sector Trend Analysis – Wine, beer and spirits Japan

Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.

Executive summary

In 2021, the Japan's alcohol market was valued at US$62.4 billion, down from US$85.8 billion in 2019, the pre-pandemic time. Alcohol retail sales declined at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of −5.9% from 2016 to 2021.

In 2021, the Japan's wine market was valued at US$13.2 billion, down from US$17.8 billion in 2019, the pre-pandemic time. Wine retail sales declined at a CAGR of −6.2% from 2016 to 2021.

In 2022, Japan imported a total of Can$2,423.2 million wine from the world. France, Italy and Chile are the top three exporters to Japan's wine market and exported Can$1,404.0 million, Can$289.3 million and Can$208.3 million respectively in 2022.

The Japan beer market was valued at US$25.1 billion in 2021. The growth seems to decline at a CAGR of −7.7% from 2016 to 2021. The Japan beer market was dominated by lager, which saw sales of US$23.3 billion in 2021 (92.8% of the beer market).

In the years leading up to 2022, Japan imports of beer had been enjoying growth, rising by a CAGR of 4.0% from 2017 to 2022. However, in 2022, imports of beer peaked at the value of Can$95.3 million and surpassed the 2019 level: Can$87.7 million.

The Japan spirits market dramatically declined to US$18.8 billion in 2021 from US$28.1 billion in 2019. Its growth was a negative CAGR of −5.7% from 2016 to 2021. The Japan spirits market is dominated by whiskies, which saw US$8.9 billion in sales in 2021, accounting for 47% of all sales in 2021 of any products in the spirits category.

Japan's imports of foreign spirits totalled Can$962.7 million in 2022, but not returned to 2019 level: Can$1,083.7 million and grew at a CAGR of 1.2% from 2017 to 2022.

 

Japan alcoholic market

In 2021, the Japan's alcohol market was valued at US$62.4 billion, down from US$85.8 billion in 2019, the pre-pandemic time. Alcohol retail sales declined at a CAGR of −5.9% from 2016 to 2021.

Historical and forecast Japan market, retail value sales of alcohol (total of on-trade and off-trade[1]), US$ million, 2016 to 2021
Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Alcoholic Drinks 84,466.4 85,398.1 85,052.2 85,844.6 68,817.8 62,383.6 −5.9
Beer 37,345.0 36,779.9 35,556.3 35,183.3 27,290.6 25,077.5 −7.7
Cider / Perry 24.6 25.5 26.1 32.6 33.6 30.9 4.7
Ready-to-drinks 3,588.1 4,017.4 4,298.6 4,702.9 4,962.8 5,226.2 7.8
Spirits 25,255.2 26,051.6 27,172.8 28,145.7 22,403.1 18,828.1 −5.7
Wine 18,253.5 18,523.7 17,998.4 17,780.0 14,127.7 13,221.0 −6.2

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

1: On-trade refers to on-premise consumption (bars, restaurants, hotels, nightclubs), while Off-trade refers to places that retail spirits for off-premise consumption (supermarkets, off-licences, shops, online-stores).

The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% from 2021-2026. Japan's consumption is expected to reach US$75.0 billion by 2026, but still not return to 2019 level: US$85.8 billion.

Historical and forecast Japan market, retail value sales of alcohol (total of on-trade and off-trade[1]), US$ million, 2021 to 2026

Category

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 CAGR* % 2021-2026
Alcoholic Drinks 62,383.6 67,334.6 71,974.8 74,148.1 75,048.9 75,221.9 3.8
Beer 25,077.5 25,954.1 27,525.6 27,937.6 27,958.8 27,522.6 1.9
Cider / Perry 30.9 34.1 35.7 36.9 38.1 38.8 4.7
Ready-to-drinks 5,226.2 5,590.1 5,940.0 6,167.9 6,350.7 6,601.7 4.8
Spirits 18,828.1 21,355.7 23,317.3 24,490.4 25,027.2 25,352.0 6.1
Wine 13,221.0 14,400.6 15,156.2 15,515.2 15,674.0 15,706.9 3.5

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

1: On-trade refers to on-premise consumption (bars, restaurants, hotels, nightclubs), while Off-trade refers to places that retail spirits for off-premise consumption (supermarkets, off-licences, shops, online-stores).

Japan wine market

In 2021, the Japan's wine market was valued at US$13.2 billion, down from US$17.8 billion in 2019, the pre-pandemic time. Wine retail sales declined at a CAGR of −6.2% from 2016 to 2021.

In 2021, the non-grape wine was the largest wine category in Japan, with US$6.4 billion in sales (47.7% of the market). Sake, also spelled saké, is an alcoholic beverage of Japanese origin made by fermenting rice that has been polished to remove bran and is the most popular in the non-grape wine, representing $6.3 billion (98.5% of the total non-grape wine). But its growth declined at a CAGR of −8.2% from 2016 to 2021.

All the categories and subcategories grew at a negative CAGR except champagne with a positive growth of 0.4% over 2016 to 2021.

Unlike bottled wine, canned wine is easy to carry around, takes up little storage space, and is easy to open, making it a good choice for those new to wine. Suntory Wine International began selling canned wine called One Wine on some e-commerce sites in October 2021, and Motox began selling canned wine Kanvas in November 2021 (Euromonitor, 2022).

Historical and forecast Japan market, retail value sales of wine (total of on-trade and off-trade[1]), US$ million - 2016 to 2021
Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Wine 18,253.5 18,523.7 17,998.4 17,780.0 14,127.7 13,221.0 −6.2
Fortified Wine and Vermouth 53.5 36.5 36.0 35.8 21.0 19.2 −18.5
Port 10.1 1.5 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.7 −41.4
Sherry 5.3 4.0 3.9 4.1 2.1 2.0 −17.7
Vermouth 31.8 24.2 23.8 22.8 12.8 11.7 −18.1
Other Fortified Wine 6.4 6.9 7.0 7.2 5.3 4.8 −5.6
Non-Grape Wine 9,861.3 9,728.2 9,217.0 8,652.0 6,896.1 6,421.7 −8.2
Chinese Wine 105.5 90.6 94.5 93.4 65.2 57.4 −11.5
Fruit Wine 58.5 59.3 60.1 60.7 45.9 43.6 −5.7
Sake[2] 9,632.6 9,518.1 9,006.4 8,446.3 6,747.3 6,285.9 −8.2
Other Non-Grape Wine 64.7 60.0 56.1 51.6 37.7 34.9 −11.6
Sparkling Wine 3,044.5 3,487.9 3,674.5 4,114.7 2,932.2 2,920.3 −0.8
Champagne 1,813.6 2,221.2 2,361.1 2,507.4 1,734.5 1,853.4 0.4
Other Sparkling Wine 1,230.9 1,266.7 1,313.5 1,607.3 1,197.7 1,067.0 −2.8
Still Light Grape Wine 5,294.3 5,271.1 5,070.8 4,977.5 4,278.4 3,859.7 −6.1
Still Red Wine 3,126.6 3,104.7 2,994.4 2,930.9 2,509.0 2,265.6 −6.2
Still Rosé Wine 229.6 228.5 220.1 219.8 193.2 173.8 −5.4
Still White Wine 1,938.0 1,937.9 1,856.3 1,826.8 1,576.2 1,420.4 −6.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

1: On-trade refers to on-premise consumption (bars, restaurants, hotels, nightclubs), while Off-trade refers to places that retail spirits for off-premise consumption (supermarkets, off-licences, shops, online-stores).

2: Sake, also spelled saké is an alcoholic beverage of Japanese origin made by fermenting rice that has been polished to remove bran

The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.5% from 2021-2026. Japan's consumption is expected to reach US$15.7 billion by 2026, but still not return to 2019 level: US$17.8 billion.

Historical and forecast Japan market, retail value sales of wine (total of on-trade and off-trade[1]), US$ million, 2021 to 2026
Category 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 CAGR* % 2021-2026
Wine 13,221.0 14,400.6 15,156.2 15,515.2 15,674.0 15,706.9 3.5
Fortified Wine and Vermouth 19.2 23.7 25.4 26.2 26.6 26.6 6.7
Port 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 11.4
Sherry 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 7.7
Vermouth 11.7 14.7 15.5 16.0 16.2 16.2 6.7
Other Fortified Wine 4.8 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.3
Non-Grape Wine 6,421.7 6,908.1 7,176.3 7,333.7 7,380.1 7,374.2 2.8
Chinese Wine 57.4 70.7 74.1 76.6 78.3 78.8 6.5
Fruit Wine 43.6 46.2 47.6 48.3 49.0 49.1 2.4
Sake 6,285.9 6,751.2 7,012.4 7,165.2 7,208.3 7,201.7 2.8

Other Non-Grape Wine

34.9 40.1 42.2 43.6 44.4 44.6 5.0
Sparkling Wine 2,920.3 3,384.3 3,683.4 3,836.7 3,944.4 4,006.5 6.5
Champagne 1,853.4 2,124.3 2,261.0 2,355.3 2,430.0 2,481.6 6.0
Other Sparkling Wine 1,067.0 1,260.0 1,422.4 1,481.3 1,514.4 1,525.0 7.4
Still Light Grape Wine 3,859.7 4,084.4 4,271.1 4,318.6 4,322.9 4,299.6 2.2
Still Red Wine 2,265.6 2,383.4 2,522.7 2,569.3 2,586.3 2,590.1 2.7
Still Rosé Wine 173.8 184.5 192.8 195.1 196.3 196.3 2.5
Still White Wine 1,420.4 1,516.6 1,555.6 1,554.2 1,540.3 1,513.2 1.3

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

1: On-trade refers to on-premise consumption (bars, restaurants, hotels, nightclubs), while Off-trade refers to places that retail spirits for off-premise consumption (supermarkets, off-licences, shops, online-stores).

Off-trade and on-trade review

During the pandemic period, the Japan wine market saw a favour of the off-trade in 2021, with sales rising to US$5.9 billion compared with 2019 level: US$5.7 billion. while on-trade sales failing to US$7.2 billion compared with 2019 level: US$11.9 billion, The off-trade made up 45.2% of Japan wine sales in 2021, compared with 44.2% in 2019. The off-trade "other fortified wine" enjoyed the biggest growth at a CAGR of 32.0% from 2016 to 2021 followed by the off-trade "other sparkling wine" at a CAGR of 13.7%.

Historical and forecast Japan retail value sales on-trade / off-trade by category, US$ million, 2016 to 2021
Category Trade type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Wine Off 6,376.7 6,313.8 5,868.4 5,784.0 5,968.5 5,985.0 −1.3
On 11,876.8 12,209.8 12,129.9 11,996.0 8,159.1 7,236.0 −9.4
Fortified Wine and Vermouth Off 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.7 2.5 5.6
On 51.6 35.0 34.5 34.3 18.3 16.7 −20.2
Port Off 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 −100.0
On 9.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.7 −40.6
Sherry Off 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
On 5.1 3.8 3.7 3.9 1.9 1.8 −18.8
Vermouth Off 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 2.7
On 31.1 23.4 23.1 22.1 12.0 10.9 −18.9
Other Fortified Wine Off 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.6 1.6 32.0
On 5.9 6.3 6.4 6.6 3.6 3.3 −11.0
Non-Grape Wine Off 3,554.3 3,496.6 3,171.5 3,042.5 3,075.6 3,097.8 −2.7
On 6,307.0 6,231.6 6,045.5 5,609.4 3,820.4 3,323.9 −12.0
Chinese Wine Off 6.9 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.1 −2.4
On 98.6 84.5 88.2 87.4 59.1 51.3 −12.2
Fruit Wine Off 38.2 38.8 39.2 39.6 32.6 31.3 −3.9
On 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.1 13.2 12.3 −9.5
Sake Off 3,488.5 3,432.1 3,107.5 2,980.5 3,022.0 3,045.2 −2.7
On 6,144.1 6,086.0 5,898.9 5,465.8 3,725.3 3,240.7 −12.0
Other Non-Grape Wine Off 20.7 19.5 18.5 16.5 14.9 15.1 −6.1
On 44.0 40.5 37.6 35.1 22.8 19.7 −14.8
Sparkling Wine Off 172.6 170.1 172.2 185.8 263.5 280.2 10.2
On 2,871.9 3,317.8 3,502.4 3,928.9 2,668.7 2,640.2 −1.7
Champagne Off 102.0 95.7 101.3 104.8 139.7 146.1 7.5
On 1,711.6 2,125.5 2,259.8 2,402.6 1,594.8 1,707.3 −0.1
Other Sparkling Wine Off 70.6 74.4 70.9 81.1 123.8 134.1 13.7
On 1,160.3 1,192.3 1,242.6 1,526.3 1,073.9 932.9 −4.3
Still Light Grape Wine Off 2,647.9 2,645.6 2,523.2 2,554.1 2,626.7 2,604.5 −0.3
On 2,646.4 2,625.5 2,547.6 2,423.4 1,651.7 1,255.2 −13.9
Still Red Wine Off 1,703.3 1,697.5 1,609.7 1,637.1 1,678.1 1,661.8 −0.5
On 1,423.3 1,407.2 1,384.7 1,293.8 830.9 603.8 −15.8
Still Rosé Wine Off 94.8 94.9 92.2 92.7 97.7 99.7 1.0
On 134.8 133.6 127.9 127.1 95.6 74.1 −11.3
Still White Wine Off 849.7 853.2 821.3 824.3 850.9 843.0 −0.2
On 1,088.3 1,084.7 1,035.0 1,002.5 725.3 577.4 −11.9

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual Growth Rate

The wine on-trade is expected to see growth at a CAGR of 7.0% from 2021-2026, as the sector recovers from the pandemic. The off-trade is not expected to see growth at a CAGR of −1.5%. Almost all categories and subcategories do not return to 2019 level except the off-trade "fortified wine and vermouth", off-trade "other fortified wine", off-trade "sparking wine", off-trade "champagne", off-trade "Other Sparkling Wine" and off-trade "Still Rosé Wine".

Historical and forecast Japan retail value sales on-trade / off-trade by category, US$ million, 2021 to 2026

Category

Trade type 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 CAGR* % 2021-2026
Wine Off 5,985.0 5,835.5 5,728.1 5,647.1 5,585.2 5,537.0 −1.5
On 7,236.0 8,565.1 9,428.1 9,868.1 10,088.8 10,169.9 7.0
Fortified Wine and Vermouth Off 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 −0.8
On 16.7 21.2 23.0 23.8 24.2 24.2 7.7
Port Off 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
On 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 11.4
Sherry Off 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
On 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 8.4
Vermouth Off 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 −2.6
On 10.9 14.0 14.8 15.3 15.5 15.5 7.3
Other Fortified Wine Off 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 −1.3
On 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 7.3
Non-Grape Wine Off 3,097.8 3,008.0 2,955.1 2,920.5 2,893.3 2,869.0 −1.5
On 3,323.9 3,900.2 4,221.2 4,413.2 4,486.8 4,505.2 6.3
Chinese Wine Off 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 −1.7
On 51.3 64.7 68.3 70.9 72.7 73.2 7.4
Fruit Wine Off 31.3 30.7 30.5 30.5 30.7 30.9 −0.3
On 12.3 15.5 17.1 17.8 18.4 18.2 8.2
Sake Off 3,045.2 2,956.2 2,903.7 2,869.2 2,841.8 2,817.2 −1.5
On 3,240.7 3,794.9 4,108.7 4,296.0 4,366.5 4,384.5 6.2
Other Non-Grape Wine Off 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.3 0.3
On 19.7 25.0 27.1 28.5 29.2 29.3 8.3
Sparkling Wine Off 280.2 255.0 240.6 234.3 234.9 238.5 −3.2
On 2,640.2 3,129.3 3,442.8 3,602.3 3,709.5 3,768.1 7.4
Champagne Off 146.1 133.7 126.7 123.2 122.1 122.5 −3.5
On 1,707.3 1,990.6 2,134.3 2,232.1 2,307.9 2,359.1 6.7
Other Sparkling Wine Off 134.1 121.3 113.9 111.1 112.7 116.0 −2.9
On 932.9 1,138.8 1,308.5 1,370.2 1,401.7 1,409.0 8.6
Still Light Grape Wine Off 2,604.5 2,570.1 2,530.0 2,489.9 2,454.7 2,427.1 −1.4
On 1,255.2 1,514.4 1,741.0 1,828.7 1,868.3 1,872.5 8.3
Still Red Wine Off 1,661.8 1,650.6 1,640.1 1,631.1 1,624.2 1,621.8 −0.5
On 603.8 732.8 882.6 938.2 962.1 968.3 9.9
Still Rosé Wine Off 99.7 97.8 96.1 94.8 94.3 94.1 −1.1
On 74.1 86.7 96.7 100.3 102.1 102.2 6.6
Still White Wine Off 843.0 821.6 793.8 764.0 736.2 711.1 −3.3
On 577.4 694.9 761.8 790.2 804.1 802.1 6.8

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual Growth Rate

Company shares

Suntory Holdings Ltd is the leading company, retail sale reaching US$999.0 million in 2021, less than pre-pandemic level in 2019: US$1,116.0 million. It is followed by LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (US$971.9 million) and Takara Holdings Inc. (US$780.7 million). All the top 10 companies have negative growths varying from −0.5% (Suntory Holdings Ltd) to −10.2% (Ozeki Co Ltd) from 2016 to 2021.

Top 10 wine companies in Japan, retail sales in US$ million, 2016 to 2021
Companies 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Suntory Holdings Ltd 1,025.7 1,116.3 1,112.8 1,116.0 997.1 999.0 −0.5
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA 1,043.1 1,153.4 1,224.0 1,295.8 911.3 971.9 −1.4
Takara Holdings Inc 1,003.2 1,056.7 1,034.8 1,028.3 853.0 780.7 −4.9
Hakutsuru Sake Brewing Co Ltd 1,077.7 1,070.6 1,004.8 928.8 801.1 755.4 −6.9
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd 766.6 759.7 739.1 718.1 655.5 595.8 −4.9
Gekkeikan Sake Co Ltd 851.6 828.1 820.5 752.7 619.5 578.2 −7.5
Koyama Honke Syuzou Co Ltd 469.6 482.0 496.5 495.0 443.0 413.5 −2.5
Ozeki Co Ltd 426.9 414.6 384.3 348.2 272.5 249.1 −10.2
Kizakura Sake Brewing Co Ltd 316.0 301.8 295.3 282.1 254.7 247.5 −4.8
Santa Helena SA 250.4 263.3 246.5 229.0 230.1 231.1 −1.6

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual Growth Rate

Distribution channels

The Japan's wine off-trade is dominated by store-based retailing, which enjoyed 94.1% of sales by volume in 2021, while convenience stores have been gaining prominence, growing at a CAGR of 0.7% from 2016 to 2021.

E-Commerce is quite popular, enjoying the biggest growth at a CAGR of 11.3% among all channels from 2016 to 2021, reaching 5.8% in 2021 from 4.2% in 2019.

Distribution channel for wine, % breakdown by off-trade volume from 2016 to 2021
Distribution channel 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* 2016-2021
Store-Based Retailing 96.4 96.2 95.8 95.6 94.5 94.1 −0.5
Grocery Retailers 90.3 90.1 89.7 89.4 88.6 88.2 −0.5
Modern Grocery Retailers 59.2 58.5 58.9 59.1 60.1 59.9 0.2
Convenience Stores 8.8 9.2 9.7 9.9 9.1 9.1 0.7
Supermarkets 50.3 49.3 49.2 49.2 51.0 50.8 0.2
Traditional Grocery Retailers 31.2 31.6 30.8 30.3 28.5 28.3 −1.9
Food / drink / tobacco specialists 29.8 30.3 29.7 29.3 27.6 27.4 −1.7
Independent Small Grocers 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 −8.5
Non-Grocery Specialists 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.1
Drugstores/parapharmacies 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.1
Mixed Retailers 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.2 −1.1
Department Stores 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 −5.6
Mass Merchandisers 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.2
Variety Stores 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 −1.9
Warehouse Clubs 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Non-Store Retailing 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.4 5.5 5.9 10.4
E-Commerce 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 5.4 5.8 11.3
Vending 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 −12.9
Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

Foreign wine in Japan – Imports

In 2022, Japan imported a total of Can$2,423.2 million wine from the world. France, Italy and Chile are the top three exporters to Japan's wine market and exported Can$1,404.0 million, Can$289.3 million and Can$208.3 million respectively in 2022. Canada is a relatively minor player in the Japan wine import market, with Can$1.1 million in wine exports to Japan in 2022. The growth is decreasing at a CAGR of −9.4% from 2017 to 2022.

Japan imports of wine by top 10 exporters in Can$ million (HS: 2204), 2017 to 2022
Category 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CAGR* % 2017-2022
World 2,090.8 2,188.1 2,402.7 2,099.1 2,133.1 2,423.2 3.0
France 1,110.0 1,206.5 1,348.5 1,146.7 1,253.5 1,404.0 4.8
Italy 250.6 253.4 284.7 244.5 251.9 289.3 2.9
Chile 278.2 261.8 259.4 246.5 184.4 208.3 −5.6
United States 159.3 167.8 183.9 167.3 143.2 200.5 4.7
Spain 128.0 128.4 155.1 146.2 153.6 157.1 4.2
Australia 58.0 64.3 62.3 53.4 51.3 59.8 0.6
Germany 20.5 21.1 24.8 22.5 24.9 25.4 4.4
New Zealand 16.0 15.6 15.9 15.7 14.8 17.0 1.2
South Africa 17.9 18.2 16.4 13.1 12.6 13.4 −5.6
Argentina 22.7 18.8 19.5 14.3 11.8 12.7 −11.0
Canada (21) 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.1 −9.4

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Japan beer market

The Japan beer market was valued at US$25.1 billion in 2021. The growth seems to decline at a CAGR of −7.7% from 2016 to 2021. The Japan beer market was dominated by lager, which saw sales of US$23.3 billion in 2021 (92.8% of the beer market). Mid-priced lager was the largest subcategory, with US$ 11.4 billion in sales in 2021. The growth of all categories and subcategories were negative varying from −1.0% (domestic economic larger) to −16.4% (imported economy lager) except the non/low alcohol beer at a CAGR of 0.4% from 2016 to 2021.

Historical and forecast Japan retail value sales of beer by category, US$ million, 2016 to 2021
Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Beer 37,345.0 36,779.9 35,556.3 35,183.3 27,290.6 25,077.5 −7.7
Dark Beer 640.4 726.5 778.1 877.4 690.0 475.8 −5.8
Ale 520.1 579.4 638.2 747.0 604.3 410.0 −4.6
Weissbier / Weizen / Wheat Beer 120.3 147.2 139.9 130.4 85.7 65.8 −11.4
Lager 35,440.2 34,761.5 33,482.9 33,012.7 25,463.9 23,340.3 −8.0
Flavoured / Mixed Lager 4.5 4.4 5.3 4.3 3.1 2.6 −10.4
Standard Lager 35,435.6 34,757.1 33,477.6 33,008.4 25,460.8 23,337.7 −8.0
Premium Lager 3,627.0 3,560.6 3,485.4 3,520.3 2,501.6 2,297.3 −8.7
Domestic Premium Lager 3,087.3 2,935.2 2,904.2 2,764.6 1,924.9 1,829.9 −9.9
Imported Premium Lager 539.7 625.5 581.2 755.8 576.7 467.4 −2.8
Mid-Priced Lager 21,493.3 20,878.7 19,677.8 19,073.4 12,548.7 11,445.3 −11.8
Domestic Mid-Priced Lager 21,493.3 20,878.7 19,677.8 19,073.4 12,548.7 11,445.3 −11.8
Economy Lager 10,315.4 10,317.8 10,314.4 10,414.6 10,410.5 9,595.1 −1.4
Domestic Economy Lager 9,947.9 9,951.5 10,027.9 10,232.4 10,236.7 9,445.4 −1.0
Imported Economy Lager 367.5 366.3 286.5 182.3 173.8 149.7 −16.4
Standard Lager by Origin 35,435.6 34,757.1 33,477.6 33,008.4 25,460.8 23,337.7 −8.0
Domestic Lager 34,528.5 33,765.3 32,609.9 32,070.4 24,710.3 22,720.6 −8.0
Domestic Premium Lager 3,087.3 2,935.2 2,904.2 2,764.6 1,924.9 1,829.9 −9.9
Domestic Mid-Priced Lager 21,493.3 20,878.7 19,677.8 19,073.4 12,548.7 11,445.3 −11.8
Domestic Economy Lager 9,947.9 9,951.5 10,027.9 10,232.4 10,236.7 9,445.4 −1.0
Imported Lager 907.1 991.8 867.7 938.0 750.5 617.1 −7.4
Imported Premium Lager 539.7 625.5 581.2 755.8 576.7 467.4 −2.8
Imported Economy Lager 367.5 366.3 286.5 182.3 173.8 149.7 −16.4
Non / Low Alcohol Beer 1,205.1 1,235.9 1,241.8 1,238.6 1,098.9 1,232.2 0.4
Non Alcoholic Beer 1,205.1 1,235.9 1,241.8 1,238.6 1,098.9 1,232.2 0.4
Stout 59.4 55.9 53.5 54.7 37.8 29.2 −13.2

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Flavoured/Mixed Lager and stout are expected to see the fastest growth, growing at a CAGR of 10.1% from 2021-2026, followed by ale at a CAGR of 9.9%, and imported premium larger at a CAGR of 8.2%.

Historical and forecast Japan retail value sales of beer by category, US$ million, 2021 to 2022
Category 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 CAGR* % 2021-2026
Beer 25,077.5 25,954.1 27,525.6 27,937.6 27,958.8 27,522.6 1.9
Dark Beer 475.8 574.6 679.4 720.7 740.6 743.4 9.3
Ale 410.0 502.1 599.2 635.6 654.3 656.8 9.9
Weissbier / Weizen / Wheat Beer 65.8 72.5 80.3 85.0 86.3 86.6 5.6
Lager 23,340.3 24,089.6 25,535.7 25,875.7 25,840.7 25,369.8 1.7
Flavoured / Mixed Lager 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 10.1
Standard Lager 23,337.7 24,086.3 25,531.9 25,871.6 25,836.5 25,365.5 1.7
Premium Lager 2,297.3 2,436.5 2,607.9 2,687.3 2,690.1 2,642.9 2.8
Domestic Premium Lager 1,829.9 1,873.8 1,972.1 2,012.0 2,001.5 1,951.3 1.3
Imported Premium Lager 467.4 562.7 635.7 675.3 688.6 691.6 8.2
Mid-Priced Lager 11,445.3 12,343.1 13,644.7 14,261.8 14,450.1 14,121.6 4.3
Domestic Mid-Priced Lager 11,445.3 12,343.1 13,644.7 14,261.8 14,450.1 14,121.6 4.3
Economy Lager 9,595.1 9,306.8 9,279.3 8,922.5 8,696.2 8,601.0 −2.2
Domestic Economy Lager 9,445.4 9,161.1 9,134.4 8,778.5 8,552.6 8,457.8 −2.2
Imported Economy Lager 149.7 145.7 144.9 144.0 143.6 143.2 −0.9
Standard Lager by Origin 23,337.7 24,086.3 25,531.9 25,871.6 25,836.5 25,365.5 1.7
Domestic Lager 22,720.6 23,377.9 24,751.3 25,052.2 25,004.2 24,530.7 1.5
Domestic Premium Lager 1,829.9 1,873.8 1,972.1 2,012.0 2,001.5 1,951.3 1.3
Domestic Mid-Priced Lager 11,445.3 12,343.1 13,644.7 14,261.8 14,450.1 14,121.6 4.3
Domestic Economy Lager 9,445.4 9,161.1 9,134.4 8,778.5 8,552.6 8,457.8 −2.2
Imported Lager 617.1 708.4 780.6 819.4 832.2 834.8 6.2
Imported Premium Lager 467.4 562.7 635.7 675.3 688.6 691.6 8.2
Imported Economy Lager 149.7 145.7 144.9 144.0 143.6 143.2 −0.9
Non / Low Alcohol Beer 1,232.2 1,252.5 1,267.2 1,295.3 1,330.3 1,362.1 2.0
Non Alcoholic Beer 1,232.2 1,252.5 1,267.2 1,295.3 1,330.3 1,362.1 2.0
Stout 29.2 37.4 43.2 45.9 47.3 47.3 10.1

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Off-trade and on-trade review

In 2021, the off-trade beer market accounted for US$18.6 billion in sales (74% of the beer market), while the on-trade market accounted for just US$6.5 billion (26% of the beer market). From 2016-2021, off-trade sales dropped by a CAGR of −1.2%, while on-trade sales dropped by a CAGR of −18.1%, driven by a rising trend in Japanese of drinking at home, rather than social drinking. The impact of the coronavirus pandemic was to greatly accelerate this trend, with on-trade sales falling by 40% compared with 2019 level: US$16.1 billion, and off trade sales almost remained the same, compared with 2019 level: US$19.1 billion.

The biggest growth was off-trade flavoured/mixed lager at a CAGR of 32.0% from 2016 to 2021, reaching US$0.8 million in 2021, followed by off-trade Imported Premium Lager at a CAGR of 29.8%. reaching US$68.9 million in 2021.

Historical and forecast Japan retail value sales on-trade / off-trade by category, US$ million, 2016 to 2021
Category Trade type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Beer Off 19,713.2 19,534.9 19,182.7 19,058.0 18,853.1 18,569.5 −1.2
On 17,631.9 17,245.0 16,373.6 16,125.4 8,437.5 6,508.0 −18.1
Dark Beer Off 188.2 223.0 224.3 282.3 345.2 270.8 7.5
On 452.2 503.6 553.8 595.1 344.7 205.0 −14.6
Ale Off 133.1 141.5 150.5 218.5 291.4 224.0 11.0
On 387.0 437.9 487.7 528.6 312.9 185.9 −13.6
Weissbier / Weizen Wheat Beer Off 55.1 81.5 73.7 63.8 53.9 46.8 −3.2
On 65.2 65.7 66.2 66.5 31.8 19.0 −21.9
Lager Off 18,914.9 18,648.6 18,265.1 18,058.6 17,732.7 17,465.6 −1.6
On 16,525.3 16,112.9 15,217.8 14,954.0 7,731.2 5,874.7 −18.7
Flavoured / Mixed Lager Off 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 32.0
On 4.3 4.2 5.1 4.0 2.5 1.8 −16.0
Standard Lager Off 18,914.7 18,648.4 18,264.9 18,058.4 17,732.1 17,464.8 −1.6
On 16,521.0 16,108.7 15,212.8 14,950.0 7,728.7 5,872.8 −18.7
Premium Lager Off 2,198.2 2,075.0 2,070.2 1,957.5 1,564.3 1,580.0 −6.4
On 1,428.7 1,485.7 1,415.1 1,562.8 937.3 717.3 −12.9
Domestic Premium Lager Off 2,179.5 2,056.1 2,052.5 1,936.0 1,503.3 1,511.1 −7.1
On 907.8 879.1 851.7 828.5 421.5 318.8 −18.9
Imported Premium Lager Off 18.7 18.9 17.8 21.5 61.0 68.9 29.8
On 520.9 606.5 563.5 734.3 515.7 398.5 −5.2
Mid-Priced Lager Off 7,051.5 6,906.2 6,528.7 6,332.2 6,069.6 6,502.5 −1.6
On 14,441.8 13,972.5 13,149.1 12,741.2 6,479.1 4,942.8 −19.3
Domestic Mid-Priced Lager Off 7,051.5 6,906.2 6,528.7 6,332.2 6,069.6 6,502.5 −1.6
On 14,441.8 13,972.5 13,149.1 12,741.2 6,479.1 4,942.8 −19.3
Economy Lager Off 9,665.0 9,667.2 9,665.9 9,768.7 10,098.2 9,382.3 −0.6
On 650.4 650.6 648.6 646.0 312.4 212.8 −20.0
Domestic Economy Lager Off 9,310.0 9,313.2 9,391.6 9,598.4 9,930.2 9,236.3 −0.2
On 637.9 638.2 636.3 634.0 306.5 209.1 −20.0
Imported Economy Lager Off 355.0 354.0 274.2 170.3 167.9 146.1 −16.3
On 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.0 5.9 3.7 −21.6
Non / Low Alcohol Beer Off 605.7 659.1 689.4 713.2 767.6 825.1 6.4
On 599.4 576.8 552.4 525.4 331.3 407.1 −7.4
Non Alcoholic Beer Off 605.7 659.1 689.4 713.2 767.6 825.1 6.4
On 599.4 576.8 552.4 525.4 331.3 407.1 −7.4
Stout Off 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 7.5 8.0 12.7
On 55.0 51.7 49.5 50.9 30.3 21.2 −17.4

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

From 2021 to 2026, on-trade sales of beer are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.7%, while off-trade sales decline at a CAGR of −1.7%. In 2026, on-trade sales are expected to partially recover to US$10.9 billion, still below their 2019 levels of US$16.1 billion and much below their 2016 levels of US$17.6 billion.

Historical and forecast Japan retail value sales on-trade / off-trade by category, US$ million, 2021 to 2026
Category Trade type 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 CAGR* % 2021-2026
Beer Off 18,569.5 18,031.9 17,747.0 17,130.4 16,835.6 16,558.0 −1.7
On 6,508.0 7,922.2 9,778.5 10,807.2 11,123.2 10,964.6 6.7
Dark Beer Off 270.8 293.8 299.5 301.6 305.1 306.6 0.9
On 205.0 280.8 380.0 419.1 435.4 436.9 9.2
Ale Off 224.0 247.4 253.3 254.2 258.0 259.2 0.9
On 185.9 254.8 345.8 381.5 396.3 397.6 9.3
Weissbier / Weizen Wheat Beer Off 46.8 46.4 46.1 47.4 47.2 47.4 0.4
On 19.0 26.1 34.1 37.6 39.1 39.2 8.5
Lager Off 17,465.6 16,875.0 16,556.2 15,915.0 15,595.2 15,296.4 −1.9
On 5,874.7 7,214.5 8,979.5 9,960.6 10,245.5 10,073.4 6.9
Flavoured / Mixed Lager Off 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 2.7
On 1.8 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 7.0
Standard Lager Off 17,464.8 16,874.3 16,555.5 15,914.3 15,594.4 15,295.6 −1.9
On 5,872.8 7,212.0 8,976.4 9,957.3 10,242.1 10,069.9 6.9
Premium Lager Off 1,580.0 1,543.2 1,513.3 1,485.7 1,463.9 1,428.7 −1.5
On 717.3 893.3 1,094.6 1,201.5 1,226.2 1,214.2 6.3
Domestic Premium Lager Off 1,511.1 1,487.3 1,467.7 1,441.5 1,419.0 1,382.8 −1.4
On 318.8 386.4 504.5 570.5 582.6 568.5 8.0
Imported Premium Lager Off 68.9 55.8 45.6 44.2 45.0 45.8 −3.9
On 398.5 506.9 590.1 631.1 643.6 645.7 5.0
Mid-Priced Lager Off 6,502.5 6,282.9 6,078.6 5,844.8 5,775.7 5,597.3 −2.3
On 4,942.8 6,060.2 7,566.1 8,416.9 8,674.4 8,524.3 7.1
Domestic Mid-Priced Lager Off 6,502.5 6,282.9 6,078.6 5,844.8 5,775.7 5,597.3 −2.3
On 4,942.8 6,060.2 7,566.1 8,416.9 8,674.4 8,524.3 7.1
Economy Lager Off 9,382.3 9,048.3 8,963.6 8,583.7 8,354.8 8,269.6 −1.8
On 212.8 258.5 315.7 338.8 341.5 331.4 5.1
Domestic Economy Lager Off 9,236.3 8,907.0 8,825.2 8,446.9 8,218.8 8,134.0 −1.8
On 209.1 254.0 309.2 331.6 333.8 323.8 5.0
Imported Economy Lager Off 146.1 141.3 138.4 136.8 136.0 135.6 −0.8
On 3.7 4.5 6.5 7.2 7.6 7.6 11.1
Non / Low Alcohol Beer Off 825.1 855.8 884.4 907.1 928.8 948.5 2.1
On 407.1 396.8 382.8 388.2 401.6 413.5 0.8
Non Alcoholic Beer Off 825.1 855.8 884.4 907.1 928.8 948.5 2.1
On 407.1 396.8 382.8 388.2 401.6 413.5 0.8
Stout Off 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.5 −2.6
On 21.2 30.0 36.3 39.2 40.7 40.8 6.3

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth

Company shares

Asahi Group Holdings Ltd is the leading company, retail sales reaching US$8.9 billion in 2021, less than pre-pandemic level in 2019: US$13.7 billion and much less than 2016 level: US$15.2 billion. Its growth dropped at a CAGR of −10.1% from 2016 to 2021. It is followed by Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (US$7.4 billion) and Suntory Holdings Ltd (US$3.6 billion). All the top 10 companies have negative growths varying from −0.8% (Anheuser-Busch InBev NV) to −19.0% (Carlsberg A/S) from 2016 to 2021 except private label with a positive growth at a CAGR of 12.4%.

Top 10 beer companies in Japan, retail sales in US$ million, 2016 to 2021
Companies 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd 15,281.4 14,601.2 13,885.3 13,683.8 10,074.7 8,979.1 −10.1
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd 10,471.3 9,923.1 9,848.6 9,856.0 8,060.4 7,373.5 −6.8
Suntory Holdings Ltd 4,790.5 4,577.7 4,694.4 4,859.0 4,100.8 3,613.9 −5.5
Sapporo Holdings Ltd 4,234.5 4,075.1 3,892.5 3,920.1 3,083.5 2,703.7 −8.6
Anheuser-Busch InBev NV 361.9 444.5 409.3 498.6 428.2 347.1 −0.8
Orion Breweries Ltd 295.4 287.7 276.6 269.9 202.5 178.4 −9.6
Heineken NV 77.3 77.9 86.4 124.3 73.9 61.8 −4.4
Carlsberg A/S 61.5 57.8 54.4 52.2 27.9 21.5 −19.0
Private Label 285.1 268.6 493.7 481.1 536.2 511.9 12.4
Others 1,816.2 1,673.8 1,699.7 1,678.8 1,464.2 1,286.6 −6.7

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual Growth Rate

Distribution channels

The Japan's beer off-trade is dominated by store-based retailing, which enjoyed 96.1% of sales by volume in 2021, while non-grocery specialists such as drugstores/parapharmacies have been gaining prominence, growing at the biggest CAGR of 8.4% from 2016 to 2021 among all distribution channels.

E-Commerce is quite popular, enjoying the second biggest growth at a CAGR of 3.5% among all channels from 2016 to 2021, reaching 3.2% in 2021 from 2.4% in 2019.

Distribution channel for beer, % breakdown by off-trade volume from 2016 to 2021
Distribution channel 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-201
Store-Based Retailing 96.3 96.7 96.7 96.7 96.2 96.1 0.0
Grocery Retailers 85.9 86.2 86.0 86.0 85.8 85.6 −0.1
Modern Grocery Retailers 68.5 68.8 68.8 69.0 69.9 70.2 0.5
Convenience Stores 22.2 22.5 22.7 22.8 21.8 21.9 −0.3
Supermarkets 46.4 46.3 46.1 46.2 48.1 48.3 0.8
Traditional Grocery Retailers 17.4 17.4 17.1 17.0 15.8 15.4 −2.4
Food / drink / tobacco specialists 15.4 15.5 15.2 15.1 14.0 13.6 −2.5
Independent Small Grocers 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 −2.1
Non-Grocery Specialists 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 8.4
Drugstores/parapharmacies 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 8.4
Mixed Retailers 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 8.9 8.9 −1.1
Department Stores 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.4 −6.9
Mass Merchandisers 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 1.7
Variety Stores 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 −1.5
Warehouse Clubs 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/C
Non-Store Retailing 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 3.9 1.1
E-Commerce 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.5
Vending 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 −6.9

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual Growth Rate

N/C: Not calculable

Foreign beer in Japan – Imports

In the years leading up to 2022, Japan imports of beer had been enjoying growth, rising by a CAGR of 4.0% from 2017-2022. However, in 2022, imports of beer peaked at the value of Can$95.3 million, and surpassed the 2019 level: Can$87.7 million. Top three exporters are South Korea growing at the biggest CAGR of 38.7%, followed by Mexico at a CAGR of −1.2% and United States at a CAGR of 6.8% from 2017 to 2022.

Canada was not a major player in the Japan beer market, with just Can$456.800 in exports in 2022. Even so, Canada has seen its beer exports grow at a CAGR of 4.2%

European beers continue to be popular among Japan consumers, who generally perceive European beer positively.

Top beer exporters to Japan - in Can$ thousand (HS code: 2206)
Country 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CAGR* % 2017-2022
World 78,231.2 71,653.8 87,668.6 78,852.3 78,843.1 95,261.4 4.0
South Korea 2,918.9 2,497.6 2,808.2 3,011.2 7,810.8 14,963.0 38.7
Mexico 15,731.2 12,394.1 16,484.2 16,532.7 14,179.1 14819.7 −1.2
United States 8,808.4 10,983.9 20,703.9 20,565.9 15,484.9 12,217.1 6.8
Ireland 10,631.7 10,430.2 12,696.7 9,188.2 9,345.7 9,578.7 −2.1
Belgium 11,074.1 9,783.2 9,315.8 8,271.3 7,911.7 9,226.5 −3.6
Germany 7,923.1 6,952.3 6,951.0 5,269.3 5,548.2 8,812.8 2.2
United Kingdom 5,311.5 4,751.2 3,232.1 2,900.9 3,603.1 4,456.8 −3.4
Italy 2,121.6 1,789.9 2,107.4 1,774.8 2,154.5 3,170.9 8.4
China 1,748.2 1,756.4 1,761.4 1,260.4 989.8 2,367.2 6.2
Spain 1,262.1 1,209.2 1,266.5 1,188.2 1,808.6 2,255.8 12.3
Canada (17th) 371.8 256.2 342.2 380.8 322.7 456.8 4.2

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Japan spirits market

The Japan spirits market dramatically declined to US$18.8 billion in 2021 from US$28.1 billion in 2019. Its growth was a negative CAGR of −5.7% from 2016 to 2021. The Japan spirits market is dominated by whiskies, which saw US$8.9 billion in sales in 2021, accounting for 47% of all sales in 2021 of any products in the spirits category. But compared with the sales at US$13.4 billion in 2019, it significantly declined.

Historical and forecast retail value sales of spirits by category, US$ million, 2016 to 2021
Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Spirits 25,255.2 26,051.6 27,172.8 28,145.7 22,403.1 18,828.1 −5.7
Brandy and Cognac 445.9 429.8 401.9 392.3 276.0 247.3 −11.1
Brandy 278.4 270.4 254.6 249.5 181.6 165.5 −9.9
Cognac 167.5 159.4 147.3 142.7 94.4 81.8 −13.4
Liqueurs 2,025.6 1,846.1 1,851.7 1,936.0 1,331.6 1,058.9 −12.2
Bitters 79.2 47.5 73.6 72.1 51.3 44.6 −10.8
Cream-based Liqueurs 60.7 58.3 56.7 55.8 40.9 33.2 −11.4
Other Liqueurs 1,885.7 1,740.4 1,721.5 1,808.2 1,239.5 981.2 −12.2
Rum 209.2 206.8 210.6 204.8 168.8 145.5 −7.0
Dark Rum 117.4 115.6 117.2 119.5 98.7 83.6 −6.6
White Rum 91.8 91.3 93.3 85.2 70.1 61.8 −7.6
Tequila (and Mezcal) 312.5 340.5 368.3 435.4 345.6 319.4 0.4
Whiskies 9,259.8 10,683.1 12,204.7 13,439.5 10,948.6 8,921.5 −0.7
Bourbon / Other American Whiskey 517.8 540.4 634.0 726.0 568.3 508.8 −0.4
Canadian Whisky 55.1 65.3 71.9 85.4 75.5 64.1 3.1
Irish Whiskey 39.8 41.7 50.1 52.9 44.5 35.9 −2.0
Japanese Whisky 6,921.6 7,958.7 9,067.5 9,880.0 8,010.6 6,453.6 −1.4
Blended Scotch Whisky 1,182.2 1,497.1 1,726.6 1,995.9 1,693.4 1,416.6 3.7
Single Malt Scotch Whisky 543.3 579.8 654.6 699.3 556.3 442.4 −4.0
White Spirits 816.9 854.0 884.2 907.3 624.4 512.6 −8.9
Gin 257.9 263.1 281.5 275.1 208.7 196.9 −5.3
Vodka 559.0 590.9 602.8 632.2 415.7 315.7 −10.8
Other Spirits 12,185.2 11,691.2 11,251.5 10,830.4 8,708.1 7,623.0 −9.0

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Spirits is expected to reach US$25.4 billion growing at a CAGR of 6.1% from 2021 to 2026, but not able to return to US$28.1 billion in 2019.

Whisky is expected to recover in 2026 at the value of US$13.6 billion, returning to and surpassing 2019 level: US$13.4 billion, growing at a CAGR of 8.7% from 2021 to 2026. All the categories and subcategories demonstrate a positive growth ranging from 2.1% (white rum) to 10.7% (gin) from 2021 to 2026. Some sales in 2026 can return to pre-pandemic levels while most sales in 2026 cannot return to pre-pandemic levels.

Historical and forecast retail value sales of spirits by category, US$ million, 2021 to 2026
Category 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 CAGR* % 2021-2026
Spirits 18,828.1 21,355.7 23,317.3 24,490.4 25,027.2 25,352.0 6.1
Brandy and Cognac 247.3 266.6 287.5 306.2 307.4 308.7 4.5
Brandy 165.5 174.5 185.5 194.8 195.6 196.6 3.5
Cognac 81.8 92.1 102.0 111.4 111.8 112.2 6.5
Liqueurs 1,058.9 1,187.3 1,348.7 1,413.0 1,419.0 1,424.4 6.1
Bitters 44.6 51.2 56.1 59.5 61.6 61.5 6.6
Cream-based Liqueurs 33.2 37.8 39.9 41.3 41.4 41.6 4.6
Other Liqueurs 981.2 1,098.4 1,252.6 1,312.2 1,316.0 1,321.3 6.1
Rum 145.5 157.6 164.0 167.9 169.4 168.3 3.0
Dark Rum 83.6 91.8 96.4 98.6 99.9 99.6 3.6
White Rum 61.8 65.7 67.7 69.3 69.5 68.7 2.1
Tequila (and Mezcal) 319.4 367.6 393.8 404.7 411.6 411.7 5.2
Whiskies 8,921.5 10,546.4 11,799.7 12,687.0 13,252.0 13,550.0 8.7
Bourbon / Other American Whiskey 508.8 546.9 626.3 676.8 702.7 719.6 7.2
Canadian Whisky 64.1 72.7 80.3 82.1 84.9 86.8 6.3
Irish Whiskey 35.9 42.0 48.1 50.6 52.8 53.8 8.4
Japanese Whisky 6,453.6 7,704.7 8,550.0 9,220.3 9,651.0 9,866.4 8.9
Blended Scotch Whisky 1,416.6 1,648.1 1,879.8 1,997.9 2,067.3 2,114.2 8.3
Single Malt Scotch Whisky 442.4 531.9 615.1 659.1 693.3 709.2 9.9
White Spirits 512.6 609.0 700.5 755.9 780.4 791.3 9.1
Gin 196.9 235.2 278.7 304.3 317.5 326.8 10.7
Vodka 315.7 373.9 421.8 451.6 462.9 464.5 8.0
Other Spirits 7,623.0 8,221.2 8,622.9 8,755.8 8,687.3 8,697.6 2.7

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Off-trade and on-trade review

In 2021, the Japan spirit market was largely dominated by the on-trade. Total on-trade sales were US$ 11.6 billion (62% of the spirit market), while off-trade sales were US$7.3 billion (38%). The Japan spirits market saw a significant shift from the on-trade to the off-trade during the pandemic. The on-trade sales almost dropped 50% from 2019 level: US$21.7 billion in 2019 to US$11.6 billion in 2021 while off-trade increased from 2019 level: US$6.4 billion to US$7.3 billion in 2021.

From 2016 to 2021, almost all off-trade sales have been increasing across all categories and subcategories while on-trade declined significantly.

Historical and forecast Japan retail value sales on-trade / off-trade by category, US$ million, 2016 to 2021
Category Trade type 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Spirits Off 6,348.0 6,411.5 6,407.6 6,428.0 7,062.4 7,276.2 2.8
On 18,907.2 19,640.1 20,765.3 21,717.7 15,340.7 11,551.8 −9.4
Brandy and Cognac Off 115.2 111.3 103.7 100.8 113.9 118.1 0.5
On 330.7 318.5 298.2 291.5 162.1 129.1 −17.1
Liqueurs Off 238.9 225.9 236.7 242.9 259.2 245.0 0.5
On 1,786.7 1,620.2 1,615.0 1,693.1 1,072.5 814.0 −14.5
Rum Off 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.7
On 206.4 204.1 207.7 202.0 165.6 142.3 −7.2
Tequila (and Mezcal) Off 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.4 4.0 9.9
On 310.0 337.8 365.4 432.4 342.2 315.4 0.3
Whiskies Off 1,837.9 2,087.4 2,328.2 2,549.2 2,924.0 3,144.1 11.3
On 7,421.9 8,595.7 9,876.5 10,890.2 8,024.6 5,777.3 −4.9
White Spirits Off 36.1 36.9 38.7 38.3 82.0 105.2 23.9
On 780.8 817.1 845.5 869.0 542.3 407.3 −12.2
Other Spirits Off 4,114.6 3,944.5 3,694.6 3,491.0 3,676.7 3,656.5 −2.3
On 8,070.6 7,746.7 7,556.9 7,339.4 5,031.4 3,966.4 −13.2

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

From 2021 to 2026, the on-trade is expected to see sales growth, but it never returns to the pre-pandemic time. On-trade sales of spirits in 2026 are expected to be US$18.0 billion, below their 2019 level of US$21.7 billion. Off-trade sales are expected to reach US$7.3 billion by 2026, higher than the 2019 level: US$6.4 billion.

The sale of white spirits through the on-trade is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.7% from 2021-2026, while off trade sales of whiskies are expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.9%, the biggest growth among all categories, reaching US$3.4 billion, surpassing 2019 level: US$2.5 billion. On-trade sales of whiskey are still at US$10.1 billion, however, expected to remain well below 2019 levels: US$10.9 billion.

Historical and forecast Japan retail value sales on-trade / off-trade by category, US$ million, 2021 to 2026
Category Trade type 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 CAGR* % 2021-2026
Spirits Off 7,276.2 7,228.7 7,196.8 7,187.3 7,255.9 7,342.5 0.2
On 11,551.8 14,127.0 16,120.5 17,303.1 17,771.4 18,009.5 9.3
Brandy and Cognac Off 118.1 113.2 108.6 105.1 105.4 105.8 −2.2
On 129.1 153.4 178.9 201.2 202.0 202.9 9.5
Liqueurs Off 245.0 243.1 241.9 241.2 242.0 243.6 −0.1
On 814.0 944.2 1,106.8 1,171.8 1,177.0 1,180.7 7.7
Rum Off 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 −4.8
On 142.3 154.6 161.2 165.2 166.8 165.8 3.1
Tequila (and Mezcal) Off 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 −4.4
On 315.4 363.9 390.4 401.4 408.4 408.5 5.3
Whiskies Off 3,144.1 3,173.1 3,198.7 3,260.8 3,341.5 3,435.1 1.8
On 5,777.3 7,373.3 8,601.0 9,426.2 9,910.5 10,114.9 11.9
White Spirits Off 105.2 108.1 109.9 111.4 112.8 114.3 1.7
On 407.3 500.9 590.6 644.5 667.6 677.0 10.7
Other Spirits Off 3,656.5 3,584.5 3,531.4 3,462.9 3,448.3 3,438.0 −1.2
On 3,966.4 4,636.7 5,091.5 5,292.9 5,239.0 5,259.7 5.8

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

Companies

Suntory Holdings Ltd is the leading company, retail sales reaching US$4.2 billion in 2021, less than pre-pandemic level in 2019: US$7.2 billion and also less than 2016 level: US$5.6 billion. Its growth dropped at a CAGR of −5.6% from 2016 to 2021. It is followed by Asahi Group Holdings Ltd (US$1.5 billion) and Takara Holdings Inc (US$1.3 billion). All the top 10 companies have negative growths varying from −0.4% (Diageo Plc) to −12.0% (Kirin Holdings Co Ltd) from 2016 to 2021.

Top 10 spirits companies in Japan, retail sales in US$ million, 2016 to 2021
Companies 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Suntory Holdings Ltd 5,566.2 6,054.8 6,708.8 7,202.1 5,624.4 4,167.4 −5.6
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd 2,627.4 2,742.5 2,842.3 2,991.7 2,195.9 1,458.3 −11.1
Takara Holdings Inc 1,953.3 1,962.2 1,824.3 1,743.5 1,630.4 1,299.2 −7.8
Kirishima Corp 1,481.2 1,481.2 1,387.8 1,296.0 1,277.2 1,064.1 −6.4
Oenon Holdings Inc 1,077.4 1,157.9 1,129.3 1,115.0 1,125.9 925.0 −3.0
Sanwa Shurui Co Ltd 1,237.6 1,182.4 1,116.6 1,084.0 1,071.2 892.5 −6.3
Diageo Plc 716.7 775.4 852.3 868.7 767.3 703.1 −0.4
Pernod Ricard Groupe 602.3 654.1 689.6 713.0 634.9 570.1 −1.1
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd 753.2 742.0 811.8 728.6 560.6 398.1 −12.0
Hamada Syuzou Co Ltd 339.2 338.9 406.0 387.3 395.3 329.9 −0.6

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual Growth Rate

Distribution channels

The Japan's spirits off-trade is dominated by store-based retailing, which enjoyed 95.9% of sales by volume in 2021, while non-grocery specialists such as drugstores/parapharmacies have been gaining prominence, growing at the second biggest CAGR of 7.6% from 2016 to 2021 among all distribution channels.

Non-store retailing/E-Commerce is quite popular, enjoying the biggest growth at a CAGR of 8.7% among all channels from 2016 to 2021, reaching 4.1% in 2021 from 3.0% in 2019.

Channel distributions for spirits, breakdown in % by off-trade volume, 2016 to 2021
Distribution channel 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR* % 2016-2021
Store-Based Retailing 97.3 97.2 97.0 97.0 96.4 95.9 −0.3
Grocery Retailers 85.3 85.1 84.2 84.5 85.0 84.5 −0.2
Modern Grocery Retailers 47.7 47.2 48.4 49.1 54.0 54.0 2.5
Convenience Stores 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 −0.9
Supermarkets 45.5 44.9 46.0 46.7 51.8 51.8 2.6
Traditional Grocery Retailers 37.6 37.9 35.8 35.4 31.0 30.6 −4.0
Food / drink / tobacco specialists 35.3 35.6 33.6 33.2 29.2 28.7 −4.1
Independent Small Grocers 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 −4.8
Non-Grocery Specialists 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 7.6
Drugstores/parapharmacies 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 7.6
Mixed Retailers 11.0 11.2 11.8 11.5 10.1 10.1 −1.7
Department Stores 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.2 2.8 2.9 −6.7
Mass Merchandisers 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.6 5.1 5.1 3.5
Variety Stores 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.1 −4.2
Warehouse Clubs 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/C
Non-Store Retailing 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.6 4.1 8.7
E-Commerce 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.6 4.1 8.7

Source: Euromonitor International, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual Growth Rate

N/C: Not calculable

Foreign spirits

Japan's imports of foreign spirits totalled Can$962.7 million in 2022, but not returned to 2019 level: Can$1,083.7 million and grew at a CAGR of 1.2% from 2017-2022, despite a significant drop in imports in 2021: Can$842.1 million.

From 2017-2022, Canadian spirit exports have increased and in 2022 reached Can$31.3 million, from Can$8.9 million in 2017 and Can$11.4 million in 2019. Canada, the 6th biggest exporter, has seen growth at a CAGR of 28.6% from 2017 to 2022, the biggest growth among the top ten exporters.

Top 10 spirits exporters to Japan (H2208) - Can$ million, 2017 to 2022
Country 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CAGR* % 2017-2022
World 904.8 989.2 1,083.7 905.4 842.1 962.7 1.2
United Kingdom 332.9 399.6 447.6 387.1 398.3 449.4 6.2
United States 167.5 185.7 218.4 186.6 147.6 149.9 −2.2
France 119.8 130.3 127.4 93.1 71.3 85.7 −6.5
Korea 121.3 117.5 115.1 80.4 71.8 62.3 −12.5
Mexico 32.2 25.0 32.6 27.0 22.7 44.8 6.8
Canada 8.9 12.5 11.4 27.9 25.2 31.3 28.6
China 14.1 14.1 18.6 9.5 8.3 25.1 12.2
Germany 9.9 11.1 10.9 9.3 14.7 17.4 11.9
Ireland 8.9 12.3 11.6 11.9 12.8 15.6 11.9
Netherlands 23.0 20.1 21.9 13.3 7.5 14.2 −9.2

Source: Global Trade Tracker, 2023

*CAGR: Compound annual growth rate

For more information

The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service:

International Trade Commissioners can provide Canadian industry with on-the-ground expertise regarding market potential, current conditions and local business contacts, and are an excellent point of contact for export advice.

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For additional information on FoodEx Japan 2023, please contact:

Ben Berry, Deputy Director
Trade Show Strategy and Delivery
Agriculture and agri-food Canada
ben.berry@agr.gc.ca

Resources

  • Euromonitor International. Alcoholic Drinks in Japan, June 2022
  • Euromonitor International. Beer in Japan, June 2022
  • Euromonitor International. Spirits in Japan, June 2022
  • Euromonitor International. Wine in Japan, June 2022
  • Global Trade Tracker, 2023

Sector Trend Analysis – Wine, beer and spirits Japan
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Hongli Wang, market analyst

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