Sector Trends Analysis – Ready meals and soups in the United States

Market size

The U.S. meals and soups market was valued at US$63.3 billion in 2023, rising 9.1% annually over 2019 to 2023, partly induced by pandemic stay at home restrictions. The top three categories in sales are ready meals (US$27.9 billion), food kits (US$12.6 billion) and prepared salads (US$9.8 billion). Between 2019 and 2023, the three fastest growing categories were food kits (17.1%), prepared salads (10.9%), and pizza (7.2%).

According to Euromonitor, over 2024 to 2028, sales growth of meals and soups is expected to slow to 3.9% annually as reduced consumption nears pre-pandemic per capita levels and inflation impacting ingredient prices and consumer spending habits. Post pandemic shifting social norms has given rise to a "grazing" consumption trend, which makes is making snacking and convenience more popular, which requires minimal preparation, such as specifically charcuterie style offerings in chilled lunch kits and newer single-serve products in frozen ready meals.

With respect to competition, Nestlé, HelloFresh, and Karft Heinz lead the way. Other major players are ConAgra and Campbell Soup.

Subsector analysis

Ready meals

Ready meals in the U.S. expanded 6.8% annually over 2019 to 2023 with sales hitting US$27.9 billion in 2023. Chilled ready meals saw the highest growth at 12.3% annually over 2019 to 2023 but is expected to grow more slowly by 5.1% annually over 2024 to 2028, reaching total sales of US$2.9 billion by 2028. All ready meal category sales are expected to slow by around half over 2024 to 2028.

Stouffers, Jimmy Dean, and Kraft are the leading brands in 2023. Other major brands are Marie Callender's and Hot Pockets with market shares of 3.3% each. According to Euromonitor, chilled ready meals has been showing significant activity in terms of new products and new brands. For example, Kevin's Natural Meals is a line of paleo- and keto-friendly chilled ready meals with an initial focus through e-commerce that was recently acquired by Mars.

Soup

Soup in the U.S. expanded 5.5% annually over 2019 to 2023 with sales hitting US$5.8 billion in 2023. Sales growth is expected to grow more slowly by 3.3% annually over 2024 to 2028, reaching sales of US$6.8 billion by 2028.

According to Euromonitor, per capita consumption of store-bought soup has steadily decreased over the years and, after a brief pandemic related rise, looks set to continue its downwards trajectory. Major producers have struggled to grow this category, with new product lines, varieties, and health and wellness trends failing to increase sales. Shelf stable offerings still dominate the category overall, and are suffering from the same optics affecting shelf stable ready meals: a perception of inferior quality, excessive processing, and poor nutritional value.

Campbell's was the leading soup brand, accounting for 38.6% of the total retail value sales in 2023, followed by Progresso with 15.3% share.

Pizza

The pizza market grew 7.2% annually over 2019 to 2023, with retail sales of US$7.1 billion in 2023. It is expected to expand by 3.9% annually over 2024 to 2028, reaching sales of US$8.5 billion in 2028. DiGiomo led pizza sales with a market share of 25.6%, followed by Red Baron (13.8%) and Totinos (7.0%).

According to Euromonitor, frozen pizza has been an especially vibrant space in premiumization with entries from players outside of the category, such as Tillamook and Rao's, while newcomer Screamin' Sicilian has blazed its way onto shelves with eye-catching packaging that accentuate the product's ingredients.

Food kits

Food kits grew fastest within meals and soups by 17.1% annually over 2019 to 2023 with sales of US$12.6 billion in 2023. Meal kits saw the fastest growth at 28.0% annually over 2019 to 2023 with chilled lunch kits and quick recipe kits seeing single digit growth.

The convenience of meal kits, especially during the pandemic, gave delivery meal kits a massive boost, with HelloFresh and Home Chef benefiting the most. Post pandemic sales growth is slower for the overall category with inflationary trends impacting ingredient prices and consumer spending habits.

According to Euromonitor, Blue Apron, which was the category leader, has struggled over the years against newer players as revenue, active customers, and number of orders falling in North America year over year. HelloFresh has been seeing similar struggles in 2023. Threats to the meal kits value proposition have built up post pandemic with changes in eating occasions and consumer confidence.

In addition, consumer behaviour including scheduling inconsistencies, fluctuating priorities, and shifting social norms have given rise to a "grazing" consumption trend, which has made snacking and convenience more popular. Furthermore, consumers are adapting what they have learned from meal kits and social media cooking trends and are stretching their dollars by directly purchasing fresh foods to cook at home.

Distribution

Ready meals and soups sales are sold mainly at supermarket and hypermarkets with around 80% market share. According to Euromonitor, retail outlets have been effective at engaging consumer trust on value proposition and brand identity. From Aldi to Trader Joe's to Costco, private label offerings have benefitted from inflation-driven trading down as consumers are placing their faith in retail as a lifestyle brand, and ready meals are a core part of that sentiment. While many shoppers have found more private label offerings in their baskets, novel high-end offerings have also made inroads across categories.

According to e-commerce data, Walmart's company share of ready meals, driven by its Marketside and Great Value brands, poses a real threat to Nestlé and ConAgra. Continued mergers and acquisitions activity in retail, combined with immediate access to shopper data, has given private label lines versatility and leverage to not only corner value share, but to pivot according to fickle consumer demands.

New product launch analysis

From 2019 to 2023, 5,620 ready meals and soups were launched in the U.S. The most popular product claim was microwavable (2,937 products from 2019 to 2023). Other popular claims include ethical, no/low claims, and free from. Companies with the highest number of new product launches over 2019 to 2023 was Nestlé with 245 products, followed by Aldi (225) and H-E-B (210). Over half of the product launches (1,304) were new products. The top five packaging types included flexible (1,728), tray (1,406), and tub (779).

Examples of new product launches

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Resources

• Euromonitor International:
  • Meals and soups in the USA (November 2024)
• Mintel Global New Products Database, 2024

Sector Trends Analysis – Ready meals and soups in the United States
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Kris Clipsham, Market Analyst

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