Note: This report includes forecasting data that is based on baseline historical data.
Executive summary
The United States (US) population stood at 331.4 million in 2020. It increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5% during the 2015-2020 period and is expected to increase at a CAGR of 0.4% from 2021-2025.
The ten most populated cities in the United States accounted for 7.9% of the country's total population in 2020. All these major cities have grown and will continue to grow at a faster rate than the total population.
Due to the current global economic slowdown, the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing unemployment and rising protectionism (Euromonitor International, May 2021), the number of unemployed heads of households in the US increased to 4.3 million in 2020 from 2.4 million in 2016, a CAGR of 15.2%. The number of unemployed heads of households is expected to decrease to 2.1 million in 2025.
The median disposable income per household in the United States increased from US$77,479.6 in 2016 to US$84,159.80 in 2020, and is projected to increase at a CAGR of 4.4% from 2021 to 2025.
Per capita expenditures (PCE) on food and beverages increased at a CAGR of 4.3% from 2016 to 2020, reaching US$3,426.90 in 2020. This spending is expected to increase to US$4,019.70 in 2025, with a forecast CAGR of 3.2% for the five-year period starting in 2021.
The Health and Wellness (H&W) sector continues to gain traction worldwide and the US is no exception. According to Euromonitor International, Americans are generally not well known for their healthy eating habits, but concern over the virus is leading to greater awareness of the health benefits of food. Like their global counterparts, 55% of US consumers said they look for healthy ingredients in food and beverages, while 36% said they actively monitor what they eat in order to manage their weight. Demand for foods with perceived health benefits is here for the long term (Euromonitor International, August 2020).
Key demographic indicators
As a global leading economy with an increasing population, the United States (US) will continue to be a major consumer market. Nonetheless, the existing inequality will continue to worsen, and the detrimental economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may slow the pace of recovery.
The US population increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5% from 2015 to 2020, when it reached a total of 331.4 million people; it is expected to increase at a CAGR of 0.4% during the 2021-2025 period. In 2020, over three-quarters of the population (82.5%) lived in urban areas throughout the country, while 17.5% lived in rural areas. The US population is expected to grow by approximately six million people, to a total of 33.7 million, between 2020 and 2025.
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total population | 324.3 | 331.4 | 0.5 | 332.4 | 337.3 | 0.4 |
| Urban population | 265.3 | 273.4 | 0.8 | 274.7 | 281.2 | 0.6 |
| Urban population as % of total | 81.8 | 82.5 | 0.2 | 82.6 | 83.3 | 0.2 |
| Rural population | 59.1 | 58.1 | −0.4 | 57.7 | 56.2 | −0.6 |
| Rural population as % of total | 18.2 | 17.5 | −1.0 | 17.4 | 16.7 | −1.0 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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The ten most populated US cities accounted for 7.9% of the total US population in 2020. All these major cities have grown and will continue to grow at a faster rate than the total population. Among the ten most populous cities, Phoenix recorded the fastest population growth rate from 2016 to 2020, as many people moved there because of its dynamic economy (Euromonitor International, 2020). New York will remain the most populous city at more than double the size of the second-largest city, Los Angeles.
| City | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* %2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | *CAGR % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 8,303.3 | 8,346.4 | 0.1 | 8,352.9 | 8,435.2 | 0.2 |
| Los Angeles | 3,924.6 | 3,993.3 | 0.4 | 4,004.5 | 4,065.7 | 0.4 |
| Chicago | 2,672.1 | 2,700.8 | 0.3 | 2,707.0 | 2,748.6 | 0.4 |
| Houston | 2,248.0 | 2,338.5 | 1.0 | 2,354.3 | 2,417.8 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix | 1,584.7 | 1,707.2 | 1.9 | 1,731.5 | 1,821.2 | 1.3 |
| Philadelphia | 1,560.8 | 1,590.8 | 0.5 | 1,596.8 | 1,629.0 | 0.5 |
| San Antonio | 1,475.4 | 1,566.3 | 1.5 | 1,583.4 | 1,647.6 | 1.0 |
| San Diego | 1,384.3 | 1,434.4 | 0.9 | 1,443.8 | 1,483.7 | 0.7 |
| Dallas | 1,285.2 | 1,358.9 | 1.4 | 1,372.8 | 1,425.3 | 0.9 |
| San Jose | 999.2 | 1,027.7 | 0.7 | 1,032.9 | 1,056.3 | 0.6 |
| Total for the 10 most populous US cities | 25,437.6 | 26,064.3 | 0.6 | 26,179.9 | 26,730.4 | 0.5 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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In 2020, the gender ratio in the US was close to evenly split with 163.2 million males and 168.2 million females. There were 60.7 million residents under the age of 15; 214.8 million residents aged 15 to 64; and 56.0 million residents aged 65 and older. The median age of US residents was 38.6 in 2020, and is forecast to increase to 39.7 by 2025.
The percentage of the population in age groups 0-14 and 15-64 remained relatively stable between 2016 and 2020. And the percentage of people over 65 has continued to increase. It is estimated that the proportion of US residents aged 65 and older will increase by a CAGR of 2.9% between 2011 and 2025, to a total of 64.6 million. In comparison, the proportion of the population in the 0-14 age group will decrease by 1.0% from 2021 to 2025. There should be little change in the proportion of people aged 15 to 64.
| 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | *CAGR % 2021-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population aged 0-14 | 61,262.6 | 60,653.0 | −0.2 | 60,064.5 | 57,811.9 | −1.0 |
| Population aged 15-64 | 213,683.5 | 214,804.9 | 0.1 | 214,713.7 | 214,976.9 | 0.0 |
| Population aged 65+ | 49,403.0 | 55,991.3 | 3.2 | 57,607.2 | 64,560.7 | 2.9 |
| Male population | 159,714.7 | 163,224.0 | 0.5 | 163,712.1 | 166,241.8 | 0.4 |
| Female population | 164,634.5 | 168,225.3 | 0.5 | 168,673.3 | 171,107.6 | 0.4 |
| Median age of population | 37.9 | 38.6 | 0.5 | 38.8 | 39.7 | 0.6 |
| Total population | 324,349.2 | 331,449.3 | 0.5 | 332,385.4 | 337,349.4 | 0.4 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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The fertility rate in the US declined to 1.6 children born per female in 2020 from 1.8 in 2016, and is expected to increase slowly until 2025. The birth rate is projected to decrease at a CAGR of 0.5% between 2021 and 2025.
The average life expectancy in 2020 was 76.1 years for males and 81.2 years for females. By 2025, the life expectancy for males and females living in the US will be an estimated 76.7 years and 81.6 years, respectively. In 2025, the death rate is projected to be 9.3 deaths per thousand people.
| 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | *CAGR % 2021-2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birth rate per '000 | 12.2 | 10.9 | −2.8 | 10.6 | 10.4 | −0.5 |
| Fertility rate ( children born per female) | 1.8 | 1.6 | −2.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Death rate per '000 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.3 | −1.0 |
| Life expectancy at birth: males | 76.1 | 76.1 | 0.0 | 76.2 | 76.7 | 0.2 |
| Life expectancy at birth: females | 81.1 | 81.2 | 0.0 | 81.2 | 81.6 | 0.1 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Among the 331.4 million US inhabitants, there were 128.5 million households in 2020, and an average household size of 2.6 people. There were 59.0% more childless couples (36.5 million) than couples with children (22.9 million). Between 2021 and 2025, the number of couples with children is expected to increase at a CAGR of 0.1%, while the number of childless couples is expected to increase at a CAGR of 0.5%, to 37.3 million.
Due to the current global economic slowdown, the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing unemployment and rising protectionism (Euromonitor International, May 2021), the number of unemployed heads of households in the US increased to 4.3 million in 2020 from 2.4 million in 2016, a CAGR of 15.2%. The number of unemployed heads of households is expected to decrease to 2.1 million in 2025.
| 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | *CAGR % 2016-2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of households | 125,819.0 | 128,450.0 | 0.5 | 128,897.1 | 131,024.3 | 0.4 |
| Average household size | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Economic status of head of household (unemployed) per '000 | 2,449.7 | 4,311.3 | 15.2 | 3,556.0 | 2,166.8 | −11.6 |
| Childless couples per '000 | 35,634.4 | 36,462.1 | 0.6 | 36,611.7 | 37,311.2 | 0.5 |
| Couples with children per '000 | 23,147.1 | 22,925.2 | −0.2 | 22,894.1 | 22,948.5 | 0.1 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Key economic indicators
According to Euromonitor International, the USA is expected to remain the world's biggest consumer market through to 2040. However, private consumption should slow down, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and rising global uncertainty (Euromonitor International, October 2020).
The US gross domestic product (GPD) was US$20.9 trillion in 2020, having increased at a CAGR of 2.8% from 2016. The US GDP is expected to reach US$27.9 trillion by 2025.
US consumer expenditure totalled US$13.6 trillion in 2020, having increased at a CAGR of 2.4% from 2016. US consumer spending is expected to rise to US$18.5 trillion by 2025, a CAGR of 4.9% from the 2021 level.
US disposable income increased to US$15.9 trillion in 2020 from the 2016 level, a CAGR of 3%.The disposable income is projected to increase at a CAGR of 5.0% between 2021 and 2025.
The median disposable income per household amounted to US$84,159.8 in 2020, up from US$77,479.6 in 2016; it is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 4.4% from 2021 to 2025.
Middle class households represented 21.8% of total households in 2020, a decline from 2016 (CAGR of −0.3%). The percentage of middle class households is expected to decline slightly to 21.7% in 2025.
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* %2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (US$ billion) | 18,745.1 | 20,936.6 | 2.8 | 23,062.0 | 27,867.9 | 4.8 |
| Consumer expenditures (US$ billion) | 12,414.9 | 13,649.8 | 2.4 | 15,251.1 | 18,480.0 | 4.9 |
| Disposable income (US$ billion) | 14,140.0 | 15,918.7 | 3.0 | 17,651.6 | 21,417.4 | 5.0 |
| Median disposable income per household (US$) | 77,479.6 | 84,159.8 | 2.1 | 92,773.4 | 110,316.0 | 4.4 |
| Middle class households (% of total) | 22.1 | 21.8 | −0.3 | 21.8 | 21.7 | −0.1 |
| Middle class households ('000) | 27,770.0 | 28,002.6 | 0.2 | 28,081.9 | 28,471.7 | 0.3 |
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Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Food and beverage expenditures
Per capita expenditures (PCE) on food and beverages in the US increased to US$3,426.9 in 2020, a CAGR of 4.3% over the period from 2016 to 2020. This spending is expected to increase to US$4,019.7 in 2025, a CAGR of 3.2% over the five-year period starting in 2021.
Spending on food in the US has been increasing over the past several years, reaching US$2,595.6 per capita in 2020, up from US$2,214.5 in 2016. The projected CAGR for per capita food expenditures is 3.2% for the 2021 to 2025 period, and per capita spending on food is expected to increase to US$3,054.3 by 2025.
PCE on alcoholic drinks in the US amounted to US$505.1 in 2020; this spending is expected to reach $US574.1 by 2025, increasing at a CAGR of 2.9% over the 2021 to 2025 period. Total per capita expenditures on non-alcoholic drinks stood at US$326.2 in 2020.
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* %2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food | 2,214.5 | 2,595.6 | 4.0 | 2,692.4 | 3,054.3 | 3.2 |
| Bread and cereals | 421.6 | 489.9 | 3.8 | 506.9 | 573.4 | 3.1 |
| Meat | 503.3 | 589.4 | 4.0 | 610.2 | 691.1 | 3.2 |
| Fish and seafood | 43.1 | 52.0 | 4.8 | 53.9 | 61.0 | 3.1 |
| Milk, cheese and eggs | 256.0 | 297.6 | 3.8 | 308.4 | 349.9 | 3.2 |
| Oils and fats | 67.7 | 78.5 | 3.8 | 81.4 | 92.4 | 3.2 |
| Fruit | 153.5 | 184.7 | 4.7 | 191.5 | 218.2 | 3.3 |
| Vegetables | 186.6 | 224.5 | 4.7 | 231.4 | 261.8 | 3.1 |
| Sugar and confectionery | 135.3 | 156.1 | 3.6 | 165.5 | 189.1 | 3.4 |
| Other food | 447.4 | 522.9 | 4.0 | 543.4 | 617.6 | 3.3 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages | 278.8 | 326.2 | 4.0 | 341.7 | 391.3 | 3.4 |
| Coffee, tea and cocoa | 47.3 | 55.0 | 3.8 | 57.0 | 64.1 | 3.0 |
| Mineral waters, soft drinks, fruit and vegetable juices | 231.5 | 271.2 | 4.0 | 284.7 | 327.2 | 3.5 |
| Alcoholic drinks | 404.4 | 505.1 | 5.7 | 513.0 | 574.1 | 2.9 |
| Total | 2,897.7 | 3,426.9 | 4.3 | 3,547.1 | 4,019.7 | 3.2 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Health and wellness
The Health and Wellness (H&W) sector continues to gain traction worldwide and the US is no exception.
According to Euromonitor International, Americans are generally not well known for their healthy eating habits, but concern about the virus is leading to greater awareness of the health benefits of food. Like their global counterparts, 55% of US consumers said they look for healthy ingredients in food and beverages, while 36% said they actively monitor what they eat in order to manage their weight. Demand for foods with perceived health benefits is here for the longer term (Euromonitor International, August 2020).
The subsectors of H&W for this particular analysis include better for you (BFY), functional and fortified (F&F), free from, naturally healthy and organic.
The H&W sector in the US recorded retail sales of US$167.0 billion in 2016 and US$191.7 billion in 2020, a CAGR of 3.5% during that period. Retail sales of H&W products are projected to reach US$216.3 billion in 2025, increasing at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2021 to 2025.
| Categories | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total health and wellness | 167.0 | 191.7 | 3.5 | 191.7 | 216.3 | 3.1 |
| Fortified and functional (F&F) | 60.0 | 67.9 | 3.2 | 69.0 | 78.0 | 3.1 |
| Naturally healthy (NH) | 40.2 | 45.9 | 3.4 | 46.0 | 51.6 | 2.9 |
| Better for you (BFY) | 40.9 | 40.9 | 0.0 | 40.3 | 41.4 | 0.7 |
| Organic | 16.4 | 22.7 | 8.5 | 22.5 | 27.1 | 4.8 |
| Free from | 9.5 | 14.3 | 10.7 | 14.1 | 18.2 | 6.7 |
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Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Fortified and functional market
In the US, the fortified and functional (F&F) market was the top performing H&W subsector in 2020 with total sales of US$67.9 billion, up from US$60.0 billion in 2016. Sales of fortified and functional products are expected to continue growing, with a projected CAGR of 3.1% for the five-year period beginning in 2021. They are forecast to reach US$78.0 billion by the end of 2025.
| Categories | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortified and functional (F&F) | 59,981.6 | 67,944.5 | 3.2 | 68,976.7 | 77,976.3 | 3.1 |
| Fortified and functional beverages | 27,690.6 | 33,696.6 | 5.0 | 35,895.6 | 43,858.3 | 5.1 |
| Fortified and functional hot drinks | 556.4 | 744.1 | 7.5 | 794.7 | 1,024.5 | 6.6 |
| Fortified and functional tea | 504.3 | 695.7 | 8.4 | 746.5 | 976.3 | 6.9 |
| Fortified and functional other hot drinks | 52.0 | 48.4 | −1.8 | 48.1 | 48.2 | 0.1 |
| Fortified and functional soft drinks | 27,134.3 | 32,952.5 | 5.0 | 35,100.9 | 42,833.8 | 5.1 |
| Fortified and functional bottled water | 2,395.6 | 3,406.9 | 9.2 | 3,600.9 | 4,250.3 | 4.2 |
| Fortified and functional carbonates | 867.8 | 1,382.3 | 12.3 | 1,510.6 | 1,917.6 | 6.1 |
| Fortified and functional concentrates | 258.4 | 312.7 | 4.9 | 334.6 | 451.8 | 7.8 |
| Fortified and functional energy drinks | 11,483.0 | 14,150.4 | 5.4 | 15,179.2 | 19,817.0 | 6.9 |
| Fortified and functional fruit/vegetable juice | 3,036.5 | 3,032.7 | 0.0 | 3,151.6 | 3,532.0 | 2.9 |
| Fortified and functional ready-to-drink Tea | 81.6 | 87.7 | 1.8 | 90.8 | 103.3 | 3.3 |
| Fortified and functional sports drinks | 7,799.0 | 9,298.6 | 4.5 | 9,878.6 | 11,055.0 | 2.9 |
| Fortified and functional packaged food | 32,291.0 | 34,247.9 | 1.5 | 33,081.1 | 34,118.0 | 0.8 |
| Fortified and functional baby food | 2,815.2 | 3,014.8 | 1.7 | 2,792.2 | 2,708.7 | −0.8 |
| Fortified and functional breakfast cereals | 6,471.9 | 7,179.9 | 2.6 | 6,736.4 | 6,808.9 | 0.3 |
| Fortified and functional bread | 742.3 | 852.9 | 3.5 | 862.8 | 910.4 | 1.4 |
| Fortified and functional confectionery | 1,026.6 | 1,224.7 | 4.5 | 1,254.1 | 1,372.8 | 2.3 |
| Fortified and functional dairy | 17,324.4 | 16,732.3 | −0.9 | 15,300.8 | 14,040.3 | −2.1 |
| Fortified and functional pasta | 126.5 | 153.3 | 4.9 | 130.6 | 124.7 | −1.1 |
| Fortified and functional sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit Snacks | 3,745.9 | 5,039.0 | 7.7 | 5,955.3 | 8,097.5 | 8.0 |
| Fortified and functional vegetable and seed oil | 38.3 | 51.0 | 7.4 | 48.9 | 54.8 | 2.9 |
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Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Naturally healthy market
The naturally healthy (NH) subcategory within the H&W market was the runner-up to NH, with retail sales of US$45.9 billion in 2020; this subcategory is expected to increase to US$51.6 billion in 2025, a CAGR of 2.9% over the five-year period beginning in 2021. The highest performing products in 2020 were bottled water, high fibre food and nuts, and seeds and trail mixes; they generated US$27.7 billion in sales and accounted for 60.3% of retail sales within the naturally healthy subcategory.
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naturally healthy (NH) | 40,233.6 | 45,929.0 | 3.4 | 45,970.1 | 51,569.2 | 2.9 |
| Naturally healthy beverages | 18,598.5 | 20,285.6 | 2.2 | 21,011.7 | 23,640.3 | 3.0 |
| Naturally healthy hot drinks | 882.3 | 999.7 | 3.2 | 1,019.9 | 1,200.2 | 4.2 |
| Naturally healthy tea | 783.4 | 906.0 | 3.7 | 928.9 | 1,119.2 | 4.8 |
| Naturally healthy other hot drinks | 99.0 | 93.8 | −1.3 | 91.0 | 81.0 | −2.9 |
| Naturally healthy soft drinks | 17,716.2 | 19,285.8 | 2.1 | 19,991.8 | 22,440.1 | 2.9 |
| Naturally healthy bottled water | 9,931.4 | 11,257.4 | 3.2 | 11,579.1 | 13,254.5 | 3.4 |
| Naturally healthy fruit/vegetable juice | 7,696.8 | 7,869.5 | 0.6 | 8,232.3 | 8,927.1 | 2.0 |
| Naturally healthy RTD tea | 88.0 | 158.9 | 15.9 | 180.4 | 258.6 | 9.4 |
| Naturally healthy packaged food | 21,635.0 | 25,643.4 | 4.3 | 24,958.5 | 27,929.0 | 2.9 |
| Naturally healthy cereal bars | 2,494.6 | 2,475.0 | −0.2 | 2,453.9 | 2,494.5 | 0.4 |
| Naturally healthy dairy | 283.9 | 272.4 | −1.0 | 253.1 | 255.7 | 0.3 |
| Naturally healthy fruit snacks | 2,106.9 | 2,511.1 | 4.5 | 2,464.2 | 2,773.0 | 3.0 |
| Naturally healthy fruit and nut bars | 842.6 | 966.2 | 3.5 | 1,117.0 | 1,333.9 | 4.5 |
| Naturally healthy high fibre food | 7,234.6 | 8,908.1 | 5.3 | 8,664.8 | 9,845.7 | 3.2 |
| Naturally healthy honey | 612.1 | 768.1 | 5.8 | 722.7 | 892.3 | 5.4 |
| Naturally healthy olive oil | 1,117.9 | 1,469.6 | 7.1 | 1,239.2 | 1,493.7 | 4.8 |
| Naturally healthy rice | 557.7 | 753.5 | 7.8 | 660.1 | 687.2 | 1.0 |
| Naturally healthy nuts, seeds and trail mixes | 6,384.7 | 7,519.5 | 4.2 | 7,383.7 | 8,152.9 | 2.5 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Better for you market
Better for you (BFY) food and beverage retail sales experienced little growth between 2015 to 2020 and sales are expected to increase only slightly over the next five years. Better for you retail sales in the US are expected to reach a total of US$41.4 billion by 2025, an increase of US$1.1 billion over the projected figure of US$40.3 billion for 2021.The top two subcategories within the BFY market in 2020 were reduced sugar beverages and reduced fat packaged food, which posted combined total sales of US$30.5 billion.
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Better for you (BFY) | 40,861.9 | 40,866.0 | 0.0 | 40,274.3 | 41,393.6 | 0.7 |
| Better for you beverages | 11,655.4 | 11,974.6 | 0.7 | 12,312.5 | 13,365.3 | 2.1 |
| Better for you reduced caffeine beverages | 1,063.3 | 894.2 | −4.2 | 870.8 | 813.0 | −1.7 |
| Better for you reduced fat beverages | 13.5 | 13.1 | −0.7 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 0.2 |
| Better for you reduced sugar beverages | 10,578.6 | 11,067.4 | 1.1 | 11,428.8 | 12,539.2 | 2.3 |
| Better for you packaged food | 29,206.6 | 28,891.4 | −0.3 | 27,961.8 | 28,028.3 | 0.1 |
| Better for you reduced fat packaged food | 20,337.2 | 19,412.3 | −1.2 | 18,073.6 | 16,979.4 | −1.5 |
| Better for you reduced salt food | 4,157.6 | 4,843.1 | 3.9 | 4,693.2 | 5,077.6 | 2.0 |
| Better for you reduced sugar packaged food | 4,711.8 | 4,635.9 | −0.4 | 5,194.9 | 5,971.3 | 3.5 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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The organic market
The market for organic food and drinks has been gaining traction globally over the past several decades, boosted by rising consumer concern about the impact of genetically modified organisms (GMO) and chemically treated produce. Buyers are increasingly demanding transparency, as well as ethically produced and certified food, and the US is following these trends.
The organic retail sales market increased from US$16.4 billion in 2016 to US$22.7 billion in 2020, a CAGR of 8.5% over the five-year period. Retail sales of organic food in the US are expected to grow to US$27.1 billion from 2021 to 2025, a CAGR of 4.8%.
The largest subsector within the organic food and drinks market in 2020 was dairy, which was valued at US$5.0 billion. It great at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2015 to 2020. Organic dairy retail sales are expected to reach US$5.6 billion in 2025, increasing at a CAGR of 3.5% between 2021 and 2025.
Ready meals came in second place in the organic retail sales subcategory during the 2016 to 2020 period, with a CAGR of 12.9%, while bread ranked third with sales of US$2.4 billion in 2020.
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organic | 16,399.8 | 22,717.0 | 8.5 | 22,467.6 | 27,092.2 | 4.8 |
| Organic beverages | 1,431.2 | 1,638.7 | 3.4 | 1,732.1 | 2,137.1 | 5.4 |
| Organic hot drinks | 489.8 | 572.8 | 4.0 | 606.8 | 773.8 | 6.3 |
| Organic soft drinks | 941.4 | 1,065.9 | 3.2 | 1,125.3 | 1,363.3 | 4.9 |
| Organic packaged food | 14,968.6 | 21,078.3 | 8.9 | 20,735.5 | 24,955.0 | 4.7 |
| Organic baby food | 832.7 | 1,128.7 | 7.9 | 1,157.6 | 1,369.6 | 4.3 |
| Organic bread | 1,421.2 | 2,420.9 | 14.2 | 2,290.8 | 2,712.1 | 4.3 |
| Organic breakfast cereals | 583.3 | 751.7 | 6.5 | 688.4 | 791.7 | 3.6 |
| Organic confectionery | 319.5 | 506.5 | 12.2 | 529.4 | 667.3 | 6.0 |
| Organic dairy | 4,068.3 | 4,997.0 | 5.3 | 4,894.1 | 5,624.6 | 3.5 |
| Organic edible oil | 344.6 | 605.7 | 15.1 | 606.1 | 773.7 | 6.3 |
| Organic frozen meat, seafood, fruit and vegetables | 1,003.5 | 1,218.1 | 5.0 | 1,325.3 | 1,788.0 | 7.8 |
| Organic ice cream | 97.4 | 153.5 | 12.0 | 165.5 | 228.8 | 8.4 |
| Organic ready meals | 2,416.6 | 3,924.4 | 12.9 | 3,728.4 | 4,364.8 | 4.0 |
| Organic rice, pasta and noodles | 155.3 | 234.8 | 10.9 | 206.8 | 222.5 | 1.8 |
| Organic sauces, dressings and condiments | 894.6 | 1,454.1 | 12.9 | 1,431.5 | 1,923.9 | 7.7 |
| Organic savoury snacks | 1,192.2 | 1,677.5 | 8.9 | 1,707.9 | 2,092.9 | 5.2 |
| Organic shelf stable meat, seafood, fruit and vegetables | 398.4 | 389.2 | −0.6 | 402.8 | 521.2 | 6.7 |
| Organic soup | 466.5 | 601.3 | 6.6 | 580.3 | 639.1 | 2.4 |
| Organic spreads | 304.7 | 460.8 | 10.9 | 468.3 | 593.6 | 6.1 |
| Organic sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks | 469.7 | 554.2 | 4.2 | 552.4 | 641.2 | 3.8 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Free from market
Free from food and beverage retail sales experienced significant growth between 2016 and 2020, and sales are expected to continue increasing over the next five years. Free from packaged food should see strong growth over the forecast period, given the increasing consumer interest in plant-based meat and dairy alternatives (Euromonitor, January 2021).
From 2016 to 2020, the free from market in the US grew at a CAGR of 10.7%, reaching US$14.3 billion in 2020. Free from retail sales in the US are expected to reach a total of US$18.2 billion by 2025, which represents an increase of US$4.1 billion over the US$14.1billion projected for 2021.
The top two subcategories within the free from market in 2020 were free from gluten and free from dairy, within combined retail sales of US$7.7 billion.
| Category | 2016 | 2020 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 | 2021 | 2025 | CAGR* % 2016-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free from | 9,497.7 | 14,258.9 | 10.7 | 14,052.4 | 18,239.5 | 6.7 |
| Free from allergens (HA milk formula) | 1,203.4 | 1,563.6 | 6.8 | 1,540.9 | 1,818.4 | 4.2 |
| Free from dairy | 2,433.3 | 3,695.8 | 11.0 | 4,097.6 | 5,928.0 | 9.7 |
| Free from dairy ice cream | 211.6 | 449.9 | 20.8 | 532.8 | 897.8 | 13.9 |
| Free from dairy milk | 2,128.2 | 2,865.0 | 7.7 | 3,056.4 | 4,154.7 | 8.0 |
| Free from dairy yoghurt | 93.5 | 380.8 | 42.1 | 508.3 | 875.5 | 14.6 |
| Free from gluten | 2,753.8 | 4,049.0 | 10.1 | 3,829.6 | 4,817.5 | 5.9 |
| Free from gluten baked goods | 295.7 | 626.2 | 20.6 | 575.5 | 658.0 | 3.4 |
| Free from gluten breakfast cereals | 1,985.4 | 2,646.3 | 7.4 | 2,503.6 | 3,244.2 | 6.7 |
| Free from gluten pasta | 142.2 | 237.3 | 13.7 | 217.6 | 259.1 | 4.5 |
| Free from gluten ready meals | 193.2 | 293.8 | 11.0 | 272.7 | 288.3 | 1.4 |
| Free from gluten sweet biscuits | 137.3 | 245.5 | 15.6 | 260.4 | 367.8 | 9.0 |
| Free from lactose | 1,988.0 | 2,710.4 | 8.1 | 2,635.5 | 3,011.9 | 3.4 |
| Free from lactose baby food | 779.1 | 797.4 | 0.6 | 738.5 | 727.0 | −0.4 |
| Free from lactose dairy | 1,209.0 | 1,913.0 | 12.2 | 1,897.1 | 2,284.9 | 4.8 |
| Free from meat | 1,119.2 | 2,240.2 | 18.9 | 1,948.7 | 2,663.8 | 8.1 |
| Free from meat, meat substitutes | 763.8 | 1,644.9 | 21.1 | 1,393.4 | 1,974.1 | 9.1 |
| Free from meat ready meals | 355.4 | 595.3 | 13.8 | 555.3 | 689.6 | 5.6 |
|
Source: Euromonitor International, 2021 *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate |
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Resources
- Euromonitor International, August 2020, consumer overview in the US
- Euromonitor International, October 2020, Income and Expenditure: The USA
- Euromonitor International (2021)
- Euromonitor International, January 2021, Health and Wellness in the US
- Euromonitor International, May 2021, Households: The US
- Euromonitor International, September 2020, The USA in 2040: the future of demographic
Consumption Profile – United States
Global Analysis Report
Prepared by: Zhiduo Wang
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