Customized Report Service – EU27 recovery report

Summary

For the first nine months of 2021, Canadian agri-food and seafood exports to EU27 decreased by −8.1%, from Can$2.7 billion in 2020 to Can$2.5 billion in 2021.

The economic impact of the measures taken to fight Covid-19 contributed to a sharp decline in the EU GDP. In 2020, the EU GDP decline by 6.4 in comparison to 2019

Vaccine availability is high in the EU, and vaccination rate is among the highest in the world. However, vaccine hesitancy remains substantial, which could pose a challenge to recovery as the risk of new variants might force countries to re-impose some restrictions.

Global supply chain disruption represents a challenge to recovery efforts as to cause delay and hamper recovery in various sectors, notably manufacture.

In the four major EU economies, vaccination policies have contributed to easing Covid-19 restrictions, paving the way for more robust recovery efforts. As shown Euromonitor's Recovery Index, 3 of the 4 countries had a Recovery index of more than a score of 100, which indicates a recovery to pre-pandemic levels. However, no economy among these four countries have returned to the levels of economic activities preceding the pandemic. Germany and France economic activities are forecast to return to 2019 levels by Q1 2022, while Italy's economic activities are expected to recover by Q2 2020.Economic activities are forecast to return to 2019 levels by Q3 2022 in Spain.

Note: Euromonitor's Recovery Index is a composite index which provides a quick overview of economic and consumer activity and helps business predict recovery in consumer demand in 48 major economies. The index takes into consideration total GDP and factors that determine consumer spend - employment, consumer spending, retail sales and consumer confidence. Index scores measure the change relative to the average per quarter for 2019, except for the Consumer Confidence Index whose base is the long-term historical average with length depending on country data availability.

A score of 100 and over indicates recovery in which consumers demand return to 2019 levels.

Macroeconomy

In 2020, the EU GDP fell by 6.4% over the 2019 mainly due to the economic and health hardship caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The EU's GDP in Q3 2021 increased by 2.1% in comparison to Q2 2021. In comparison to Q3 2020, the EU GDP increased by 3.9% in Q3 2021. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the EU GDP is forecast to expand by 4.4% in 2022 as Covid-19 restrictions have been eased in most countries.

The annual inflation rate increase was 4.4% in the EU in October 2021, up from 3.6% in September 2021.

In 2020, agriculture contributed €173.3 billion or 1.3% to the EU's GDP according to Eurostat. Agricultural output decreased by 1.1% in 2020 in comparison to 2019, and the estimate value of the agricultural industry was €414.1 billion. France, Germany, Italy and Spain were the countries with the highest share in total agricultural output. These four countries total more than half of the total output value of the EU's agricultural industry.

In October 2021, the unemployment rate in the EU was 6.7%, decreasing from 7.5% in October 2020.

In 2020, household consumption expenditure declined by 8.1 % in the EU in comparison to 2019 according to Eurostat. Among the sectors, restaurants and hotels (−37.8 %), clothing and footwear (−17.3%) and recreation and culture (−16.7%) recorded the largest decline in household consumption expenditure. On the other hand, food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.2 %), communications (2.4 %) and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels' (0.3 %) were the only sectors to grow in 2020 in comparison to 2019. In 2020, household expenditure in food and non-alcoholic beverages accounted for 14.8% of total household expenditure and accounted for 7.5% of the GDP.

Trade

Overall results

For the first nine months of 2021, Canadian agri-food and seafood exports to EU27 decreased by −8.1%, from Can$2.7 billion in 2020 to Can$2.5 billion in 2021. Exports of soya bean, one of the most exported commodities in 2020 drastically fell by over −37% from January to September 2021 in comparison to the same period in 2020 while exports of canola seeds decreased −61.4%.

Top export commodities in 2021 YTD are durum wheat (Can$370.7 million), canola seeds (Can$317.2 million), maize (corn) (Can$232.5 million), dog and cat food (Can$120.8 million) and maple sugar and maple sugar (Can$92.2 million). These five commodities represented over 45% of total Canadian agri-food and seafood exports to the EU27 during the first nine months of 2021.

Data for the month of September alone indicates that exports have decreased by −14.3%, from Can$324.5 million in September 2020 to Can$278.1 million in September 2021. Export values increased by 45.8% from August 2021 to September 2021.

Canada's import of agri-food and seafood products from EU27 reached Can$4.7 billion in the first nine months of 2021, an increase of 11.9% compared to the same period last year.

Sector Analysis (Top 3 sectors)

Durum wheat

In 2020, durum wheat was Canada's second largest agricultural exports to the EU27, with exports valued at Can$659.4 million. From 2019 to 2020, durum wheat exports to the EU increased by 113.3%.

Canada's exports of durum wheat to the EU27 from January to September 2021 were valued at Can$370.7 million (948.7 thousand tonnes) in 2021 vs Can$386.5 million (1,135.3 thousand tonnes) in 2020.

For September alone, exports of durum wheat to the EU27 increased from Can$34.8 million (98.7 thousand tonnes) in 2020 to Can$40.6 million (100.6 thousand tonnes) in 2021. Value and quantity increased from August 2021 to September 2021.

Canola seeds

In 2020, canola seeds were Canada's largest agricultural export to the EU27 in 2020. Canadian canola seed exports to the EU27 were valued at Can$1.3 billion, an increase of 103.7% from 2019 (Can$639.6 million).

Canadian canola seed exports to EU27 were valued at Can$317.2 million (523.9 thousand tonnes) from January to September 2021 vs Can$821.7 million (1,654.7 thousand tonnes) during the same period in 2020.

For the month of September alone, exports to EU27 increased from Can$113.5 million (217.5 thousand tonnes) in September 2020 to Can$29.2 million (45.3 thousand tonnes) in September Value and quantity increased from August 2021 to September 2021.

Maize (corn)

In 2020, corn was Canada's fourth largest agricultural export to the EU27. Canadian corn exports to the EU27 were valued at Can$128.5 million, a decrease of −15.3% from 2019.

Canada's exports of corn to the EU from January to September 2021 were valued at Can$232.5 million (726.4 thousand tonnes) in 2021 vs Can$72.1 million (309.7 thousand tonnes) in 2020.

For September alone, exports of corn to the EU27 increased from Can$322 (962 tonnes) in 2020 to Can$12.7 million (35.4 thousand tonnes) in 2021. Value and quantity increased from August 2021 to September 2021.

Overall trade

From January to September 2021, Canada's total export to the EU27 increased by 10.4% in comparison to the same period in 2020, reaching Can$21.9 billion. Total imports also grew during this period in comparison to 2020, reaching Can$50.4 billion, an increase of 14.0%.

During the first nine months of 2021, the EU27 (excluding intra-trade) exports of agri-food and seafood were valued at Can$218.9 billion, an increase of 3.6% from the same period in 2020. Wine, pork and spirits and liquors were the main exports agri-food products in 2021. On the other hand, imports increased by 1.0% in 2021 in comparison to 2020, totalling Can$165.3 billion. Coffee, soya beans and oil-cake were the main import products in 2021.

EU27 total exports during the first nine months of 2021 totalled Can$2.4 trillion, an increase of 10.5% in comparison to the same period in 2020. Imports also grew, reaching Can$2.2 trillion, an increase of 15.9% in comparison to 2020.

Since Q2 2020, China has overtaken the United States as China largest trading partner. The pandemic played an important role in this shift.

Other recovery indicators

Global supply chain disruption characterized by soaring shipping costs, delivery delays and occasionally low inventory is not expected to return to some normalcy until 2023 according to Allianz. The supply chain disruption is slowing recovery in the manufacture sector. The imbalance between supply and demand contributes to the clogging of the supply chain and this could result in higher prices for consumer goods.

EU road freight declined by 0.9% from 2019 to 2020, mainly due to Covid-19 restrictions which reduced both international and national transport. In 2020, road freight transport increased by 2% for both agricultural, forestry and fishery and food, beverages and tobacco products in terms of tonnage. Germany saw the highest number of freight transported by road in terms of tonnages in 2020. Furthermore, rail freight transport declined by 6% in 2020 in comparison with 2019.

Vaccination

Vaccines are available widely available in most EU countries, and vaccination rate is stagnant mainly due to vaccine hesitancy in some cases. For example, 81% of Spaniards, 73% of Italians, 74% Dutch, 70% of French and 68% of Germans are fully vaccinated against Covid-19

In order to encourage people to get vaccinated, several countries have imposed vaccine passports. In France, the government has introduced the "pass sanitaire" which is required to access establishments such as bars and restaurants, movie theatres or sports facilities. Similar vaccine passports exist in other European countries as well. With the emergence of new variants and increasing number of cases, some countries have implemented restrictions mainly affecting unvaccinated people. For example, Austria has imposed a lockdown on people unvaccinated against Covid-19. Germany has tightened restrictions for those unvaccinated against Covid-19 and the current and incoming chancellors have backed mandatory vaccination for all citizens next year.

With the Omicron virus posing the risk of a new wave of infections across countries, some countries have started to impose measures regarding conditions of entry. France for example has announced that all arrivals from non-EU countries will have to provide a negative COVID test taken within the previous 48 hours, even if they have been vaccinated. Denmark reintroduced the vaccine pass in November amid increased number of Covid-19 cases after it was phased out in September. The Netherlands has introduced new measures as well, including closure of nonessential shops such as bars and restaurants from 5pm to 5am and Belgium imposed new measures including closure of bars and restaurants from 11pm.

Tourism

Vaccination and vaccine passports across Europe coupled with the easing of restrictions helped the tourism sector to gradually recover. The EU Digital Covid Certificate encouraged free movement with the bloc. However, risk of further waves and restrictions could negatively impact an already fragile recovery in the tourism sector.

Foodservice and retail

In 2020, foodservice sectors in major EU countries were heavily impacted by the Covid-19 induced lockdown measures. Foodservice sales decline by −38.3% in Spain, −36.0% in the Netherlands, −33.2% in Italy, −32.9% in France and 29.6% in Germany with restaurants and bars having to close for the majority of 2020.

With the ease of restrictions and the introduction to various schemes of passports, foodservice outlets were able to open this year. After months long lockdown, European consumers expect to return to dine-in restaurants. According to a survey from NPD, 93% of European respondents have already returned to restaurants or expect to be returning to restaurants before the end of the year. Moreover, accommodation and foodservice are leading in terms of hiring with 11%.

In 2020, Italy's food retail sales reached US$175 billion an increase of 5.6% compared to 2019 according. Food retail sales in the Netherlands grew by almost 9% and reach US$50 billion in 2020.

In 2020, e-commerce sales of food and beverages sharply increased in most EU countries over the previous year. E-commerce sales of food and beverages grew by 91.5% in Italy, 68.8% in the Netherlands, 55.0% in Spain, 35.1% in France and 31.4% in Germany. The pandemic and lockdown measures played an instrumental role in accelerating the adaptation of e-grocery by consumers. Although, e-grocery is not forecast to replace food retailers, consumers now have various options at their disposable when buying groceries, therefore e-commerce will continue to play an important in consumers' shopping habits.

For more information

The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service:

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Resources

• Allianz. (September 17, 2021). Global economy: A cautious back-to-school
• BBC. (November 15, 2021). Covid: Austria introduces lockdown for unvaccinated
• BBC. (October 28, 2021). Covid passes set to stay as Europe heads for winter
• Euromonitor International. (2021)
• Euronews. (December 3, 2021). COVID in Europe: Germany targets unvaccinated as Austria extends lockdown
• Euronews. (December 1, 2021). Germany's incoming chancellor backs mandatory COVID vaccination
• Eurostat. (November, 2021). Performance of the agricultural sector
• Eurostat. (November 19, 2021). Household expenditure takes 8% hit in 2020
• Eurostat. (November 16, 2021). GDP up by 2.2% and employment up by 0.9% in the euro area, in the EU, GDP up by 2.1% and employment up by 0.9%
• Eurostat. (September 9, 2021). Extra-EU trade in goods recovering
• Eurostat. (October 2021). Road freight transport statistics
• Eurostat. (October 2021). Railway freight transport statistics
• Eurostat. (October 2021). Unemployment statistics
• Eurostat. (November 17, 2021). Annual inflation up to 4.1% in the euro area, up to 4.4% in the EU
• Eurostat. February 2, 2021). GDP down by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU
• NPD. (July 10, 2021). The NPD Group: Addressing Safety, Changes in Workplace, and Digital are Key to Recovery for Europe Foodservice Industry
• Reuters. (November 29, 2021). COVID passports, vaccines helped EU tourism recovery - U.N.
• Reuters. (November 19, 2021). Factbox: Europe starts reimposing COVID-19 restrictions
• Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. (September 2021). OECD economic survey: European Union
• Our World in Data. (2021). Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations
• United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). (June 28, 2021). Retail Foods in the Netherlands
• USDA. (June 23, 2021). Retail Foods in Italy
• World Economic Forum. (October 27, 2021). These are the jobs currently driving the economic recovery across Europe
• World Tourism Organization. (November 28, 2021). Global tourism sees upturn in Q3 but recovery remains fragile

Customized Report Service – EU27 recovery report
Global Analysis Report

Prepared by: Saidouba Camara, Market Analyst

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