Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2024-09-25

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (PDF version, 418 KB)

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) August outlook report for the 2023-24 and 2024-25 crop years, based on available information up to September 18, 2024. The report incorporates revised supply and demand data from Statistics Canada for the 2022-23 and 2023-24 crop years. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. Uncertainty in the world’s grain markets remains elevated because of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other ongoing geopolitical risks.

The 2023-24 the report provides the near‑final estimates for all crops, except for corn and soybeans, incorporating information from Statistics Canada’s (STC) September 9, 2024, report on Stocks of Principal Field Crops as of July 31, 2024. Stocks of principal field crops, excluding corn and soybeans, were 3.8% below 2023 levels and 2.9% less than the previous five-year average. A decrease in production was behind the fall in stocks, as drought across large parts of Western Canada led to a reduction in yields. As a result, carry-out stocks for all principal field crops (including corn and soybeans) are expected to decline by 1.5% year-over-year (y/y) as the fall in production offsets a reduction in exports. Prices for most principal field crops are projected to be significantly lower y/y, with the exception of pulses.

For 2024-25, the outlook incorporates crop production estimates from STC’s September 16, 2024, Model Based Principal Field Crop Estimates release, which were based on information as of the end of August 31, 2024, using remote sensing data from STC’s Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP), agroclimatic data, as well as survey data and administrative sources. Production of all principal field crops is estimated to have increased 1.8% y/y, which would be 2.4% above the previous five-year average. On the Canadian Prairies, overall production is estimated to have increased 3.0% y/y and be 2.2% above the previous five-year average. For most principal field crops, better yields compared to 2023 drove these production expectations, combined with stable-to-higher areas for some crops. Wheat production is expected to increase 4.1%, oilseeds production remains largely unchanged, coarse grains production is estimated to decrease 4.4%, and pulse and special crops production is estimated to increase significantly by 29.5%. Harvest is ahead of schedule for much of the Canadian Prairies, while the soybean harvest is just getting started in Eastern Canada. Prices for most principal field crops are forecast to decline year-over-year, in line with lower world values.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on October 21, 2024. STC is scheduled to publish its final principal field crop production estimates for the year on December 5, 2024, based on a survey in November of approximately 28,600 farmers across Canada.

**Total Grains And Oilseeds^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note f}	2024-2025^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	27,668	28,273	27,833
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	26,827	27,279	26,740
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.40	3.18	3.25
Production (thousand tonnes)	91,148	86,871	87,015
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note b}	2,986	3,948	3,707
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	103,857	102,604	102,616
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note c}	47,525	44,904	45,132
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note e}	44,547	45,806	46,024
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	11,785	11,894	11,460
Table 1 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Table 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Table 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops e referrer Table 1 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Pulses and Special Crops^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note f}	2024-2025^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	3,707	3,376	3,747
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	3,649	3,309	3,654
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.81	1.60	1.87
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,618	5,284	6,841
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note b}	284	393	269
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,971	6,858	7,986
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note b}	5,620	4,933	5,323
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note c}	1,170	1,050	1,183
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,182	876	1,480
Table 2 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 2 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 2 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 2 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Principal Field Crops^{All Principal Field Crops note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{All Principal Field Crops note f}	2024-2025^{All Principal Field Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	31,376	31,649	31,579
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	30,476	30,588	30,394
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.21	3.01	3.09
Production (thousand tonnes)	97,766	92,155	93,856
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note b}	3,270	4,341	3,976
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	111,828	109,462	110,601
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note b}	53,145	49,837	50,455
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note c}	45,717	46,855	47,206
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	12,966	12,769	12,940
Table 3 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 3 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 3 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 3 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to All Principal Field Crops table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2023-24, Statistics Canada (STC), in its latest report, has revised both carry-in stocks and production figures up. Carry-in stocks have been increased by 40% to 0.57 million tonnes (Mt), attributed to a rise in farm stocks, while production has been adjusted upward by 1% to just under 4.1 Mt. Consequently, total supply for the 2023-24 marketing year is now reported at 4.67 Mt, still 27% lower than in 2022-23. According to STC, closing stocks are estimated at 0.58 Mt, relatively in line with the previous year.

Exports totaled 3.47 Mt, reflecting a 31% decrease year-on-year, primarily due to a smaller harvest and increased competition from other suppliers, particularly Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Russia. In the 2023-24 marketing year, Canada exported durum to 37 countries, with the top five destinations being Algeria, Morocco, the United States, Italy, and Japan.

The average spot price for Canadian Western Amber Durum No. 1, 13% protein (CWAD, 1, 13) for Saskatchewan (SK) producers was $425/tonne.

For 2024-25, STC projects Canadian durum production to reach 6.0 Mt, representing a 42% increase compared to the previous year. This is attributed to a rise in seeded area and improved yields. Total supply is estimated at 6.6 Mt. Domestic consumption is expected to align with average levels, that is 0.8 Mt and total exports are expected to increase by 38% to 4.8 Mt, driven by heightened import demand from North Africa and Europe.

Closing stocks are pegged at just under 1.1 Mt with a modest increase in both farm and commercial stocks.

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), world durum production is projected to increase by 11% to 34.9 Mt, driven by substantial harvests in North America. However, total supply is expected to rise by only 2% due to low carry-in stocks; it is anticipated at 39.6 Mt. Global usage is projected to increase marginally to 34.4 Mt, as a decline in feed use is offset by an increase in food use. Trade is forecasted at 9.52 Mt, representing a 2% increase compared to the previous year. Carry-out stocks are projected to grow to 5.21 Mt, 0.5 Mt above opening levels.

The average SK producer spot price for CWAD 1, 13% for 2024-25 remains unchanged at $325/tonne. Some key price factors to monitor include: the pace of European and North African imports and the volume of exportable surplus in Turkey.

**Durum ^{Durum note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Durum note f}	2024-2025^{Durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,431	2,442	2,576
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,400	2,375	2,501
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.41	1.72	2.41
Production (thousand tonnes)	5,790	4,087	6,033
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note b}	1	4	25
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	6,378	4,666	6,635
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note c}	5,059	3,469	4,800
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Durum note d}	194	188	200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	317	186	356
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note e}	745	621	785
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	574	576	1,050
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Durum note g}	445	425	325
Tableau 4 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Durum table note a referrer Tableau 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Durum table note b referrer Tableau 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Durum table note c referrer Tableau 4 Note d Food and Industrial use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Durum table note d referrer Tableau 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Durum table note e referrer Tableau 4 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Durum note f referrer Tableau 4 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Durum note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2023-24, STC updated its estimates for Canadian wheat production and carry-in stocks; the former is now estimated at 28.9 Mt, down marginally 1% year-on-year, while the latter is pegged at 5.1 Mt, 63% more than in 2022-23. This results in a total supply of nearly 34 Mt. According to STC, 2023-24 closing stocks are reported at 4.0 Mt, 21% less than opening levels.

Exports are estimated at 21.8 Mt, 6% more than the previous year and the second-highest level on record. In 2023-24, Canada exported wheat to 65 countries, with the top five destinations being China, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, and the United States.

The average spot price for Canadian Western Red Spring No. 1, 13.5% protein (CWRS 1, 13.5%) in Saskatchewan is $316/tonne.

For 2024-25, STC estimates that wheat production will decline to 28.3 Mt, representing a 2% decrease from the previous year and a 4% drop compared to the five-year average. This is largely due to a reduction in seeded area. Spring wheat production is projected to decrease by only 3%, while winter wheat production is expected to fall by 7% year-on-year. As a result, total wheat supply is estimated to be down 5% at 32.4 Mt.

With domestic use projected at average levels, that is 7.9 Mt, total exports are forecasted at 20.5 Mt, a 6% decrease from the prior year but 9% above average levels. Closing stocks are pegged at 4.0 Mt, in line with opening levels.

The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a decline in global wheat supply to 1,062.1 Mt in 2024-25, despite a 1% year-over-year increase in production, due to low carry-in stocks. Global use is projected at 804.9 Mt, reflecting a 1% increase from last year, driven by higher feed and food consumption. Total trade is expected to decrease by 2% with reduced shipments from the EU, Ukraine, and Russia. Carry-out stocks are expected to tighten another 3% to 257.2 Mt, with over 52% of those stocks held in China.

US all-wheat production is projected to increase by 9% to 53.9 Mt, while total supply is expected to rise by 11% to 75.9 Mt. US exports are estimated at 22.5 Mt, up from 19.2 Mt last year; domestic consumption is forecast to grow 2% to 30.9 Mt and carry-out stocks are pegged at 22.5 Mt, 18% more than opening levels.

The average producer spot price for SK CWRS 1, 13.5% remains unchanged at $330/tonne. Some items to note include the final quality of European wheat harvest, in particular France, any escalation of the conflict in the Black Sea, the export pace of Russian wheat, and Chinese import demand.

**Wheat Except Durum ^{Wheat except Durum note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Wheat except durum note f}	2024-2025^{Wheat except durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	7,844	8,505	8,258
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	7,696	8,324	8,031
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.77	3.47	3.52
Production (thousand tonnes)	29,016	28,859	28,260
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note b}	64	88	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	32,663	33,997	32,367
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note c}	20,476	21,773	20,500
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note d}	3,258	3,242	3,200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	3,005	4,131	3,940
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note e}	7,135	8,217	7,867
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	5,051	4,007	4,000
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Wheat except Durum note g}	401	316	330
Table 5 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 5 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 5 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 5 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 5 Note e Total Domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 5 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 5 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Wheat^{All wheat note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{All wheat note f}	2024-2025^{All wheat note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	10,274	10,947	10,834
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	10,096	10,700	10,532
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.45	3.08	3.26
Production (thousand tonnes)	34,807	32,946	34,293
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note b}	65	91	125
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	39,041	38,663	39,001
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note c}	25,536	25,242	25,300
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note d}	3,452	3,430	3,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	3,323	4,317	4,296
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note e}	7,880	8,838	8,651
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	5,625	4,583	5,050
Table 6 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 6 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 6 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 6 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 6 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 6 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2023-24, according to Statistics Canada (STC), total supply was 9,720 thousand tonnes (Kt), down 8% (-836 Kt) year-over-year (y/y) and 6% below the previous five-year average. About 34% of the supply was for exports, which stand at 3,312 Kt in 2023-24, down 15% (-578 Kt) y/y, with grain exports falling 19% (-606 Kt) to 2,541 Kt and product exports rising 4% (+28 Kt) to 771 Kt. Approximately 53% of the supply was for domestic consumption, which stands at 5,186 Kt in 2023-24, down 13% (-771 Kt) y/y, with animal feed use falling 13% (-725 Kt) to 4,873 Kt, and industrial uses also down y/y, while human food consumption remains stable. At 1,222 Kt, total stocks as of July 31, 2024, are up 72% (+514 Kt) y/y and 62% above the five-year average, also the highest in seven years.

In terms of trade destinations, the top markets for Canadian barley grains in 2023-24 include China (accounting for over 75% of Canadian barley grain exports), Japan (14%), and the US (9%), with the majority of the remainder shipped to South Korea and Vietnam. The major markets for Canadian barley products include the US (57%), Japan (22%) Mexico (14%), and South Korea (4%), with the majority of the remainder shipped to countries in South America and Africa.

The Lethbridge feed barley average price for 2023-24 was finalized at $314/tonne (/t), down over $100/t y/y and the lowest in three years.

For 2024-25, Canadian barley production is projected by STC at 7.6 million tonnes (Mt), down 15% y/y, primarily due to a slightly lower yield combined with significantly smaller seeded area. The national average yield is projected by STC at 3.28 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), which is slightly lower than last year and 4% below the five-year average. If realized, 2024 production will be the lowest in a decade (excluding 2021, when an unprecedented drought in Western Canada significantly reduced Canadian barley production to 7.0 Mt) and well below the five-year average.

As the expected decline in production will be more than offset by a significant increase in carry-in stocks, total supply for 2024-25 will be 8.9 Mt, down 8% y/y and 13% below average.

Total demand is forecast at 8.2 Mt, down 3% y/y due to tighter supply. Total domestic use is projected at 5.5 Mt, up 6% y/y but down 10% from the average; of which, about 90% is for domestic feed use. Total exports are forecast at 2.8 Mt, down 17% y/y and 20% below the average; of which, grain exports account for approximately 70% and the other 30% are product exports.

Carry-out stocks are estimated at a relatively tight level of 0.7 Mt, down 43% y/y and 15% below the average.

The 2024-25 Lethbridge average price is projected at $285/t, the lowest in four years, due to pressure from the weakness in other crop prices.

Globally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated world barley production for 2024-25 at 144 Mt, up 1% from 142 Mt in 2023-24, on an expected significant output increase in the EU, Australia, and Kazakhstan, while production in Russia, Ukraine, and the US is anticipated to decline sharply. Nevertheless, global production will be 5% below the five-year average of 152 Mt. Due to an increase in total use (more than 95% of the increase being from the feed consumption) drastically outpacing the increase in production, global ending stocks are projected at 17 Mt, down sharply y/y and well below average, also a record low. Simultaneously, the USDA put global import demand at 29 Mt, down significantly y/y and well below average, also the lowest in six years, with a significant decline expected in China’s import demand in 2024-25.

**Barley^{Barley note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Barley note f}	2024-2025^{Barley note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,851	2,967	2,584
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,636	2,703	2,316
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.79	3.29	3.28
Production (thousand tonnes)	9,987	8,905	7,600
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note b}	26	106	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	10,556	9,720	8,922
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note c}	3,890	3,312	2,750
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Barley note d}	106	92	319
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	5,598	4,873	4,913
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note e}	5,957	5,186	5,472
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	709	1,222	700
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Barley note g}	417	314	285
Table 7 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 7 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 7 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 7 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table7 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 7 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 7 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2023-24, total supply is estimated at over 20 Mt, up 3% y/y and 4% above the five-year average, due to the record high output and large imports for the year, despite a significant fall in carry-in stocks. Total domestic use is forecast at 16 Mt, up 7% from the previous year and 5% above the average. Exports are projected at 2.0 Mt, down sharply y/y but remaining noticeably above average. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.9 Mt, a recovery from last year’s nine-year low but still below the five-year average by 14%.

Regarding trade destinations, the top markets for Canadian corn in 2023-24 include Ireland (accounting for over 50% of Canadian corn exports), the US (18%), and the United Kingdom (16%), with the majority of the remainder shipped to Spain and Portugal. Canada has also imported large quantities of corn in recent years, primarily from the US.

The Chatham corn average price for 2023-24 was finalized at $211/t, down over $85/t y/y and the lowest in four years.

For 2024-25, Canadian corn production is projected by STC at 15.2 Mt, down 2% y/y, primarily due to a 5% decline in seeded area despite a much better yield outlook. The national average yield has continued to rise over the past five years, and STC expects the 2024 average yield to reach 10.53 t/ha, a record high. As a result, the 2024 production will be the second- highest on record and 6% above the average.

With the expected smaller production, larger carry-in stocks, and slower imports, total supply for 2024-25 is forecast at 20.0 Mt, down slightly y/y but 3% above average.

Total demand is projected at 17.9 Mt, down 2% from 2023-24 on lower feed use. Total domestic use is projected at 15.9 Mt, down 2% y/y but up 2% from the average; of which, about 65% is for domestic feed use and 35% is for food and industrial use. Total exports are forecast at 2.0 Mt, unchanged y/y but significantly above the average.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at 2.1 Mt, up 11% y/y but 5% below the average.

The 2024-25 the Chatham average price is projected at $205/t, the lowest in five years, due mostly to pressure from lower US corn prices.

For the US, the USDA raised its 2024 US corn production figure from their last projections to 386 Mt on improved average yield potential. At 11.52 t/ha, the 2024 yield is a record high; if realized, 2024 production would be the second highest on record and 6% above average despite a y/y decline of 1%. The supply projection for 2024-25 was decreased due to lower beginning stocks, which completely offset the increase in production, but it would still remain an all-time high. Total demand in 2024-25 is projected to increase only slightly y/y and also an all-time high. The ending stock projection was lowered due to a decrease in the projected supply. Nevertheless, US corn ending stocks for 2024-25, projected at 52 Mt, will remain 14% larger than 2023-24 and 32% above the average. The marketing-year weighted average price received by US farmers was lowered from the last projections by about US$5/t and pegged at slightly above US$160/t, the lowest in five years.

The USDA projects global corn production for 2024-25 at 1,219 Mt, down slightly (-6 Mt) y/y, with production in Ukraine and the US projected lower and in Brazil and Argentina, higher. Nevertheless, global production will be 4% (+47 Mt) above average and the second highest on record. Global consumption in 2024-25 is expected to continue to grow, with an increase expected in feed use and a decrease in food, seed, and industrial use. Global trade is forecast to slow down from 2023-24 with imports to China, Mexico, and the EU to fall 11% (-2.5 Mt), 4% (-1.0 Mt), and 3% (-0.5 Mt), respectively, and exports from Ukraine, Russia and the EU to fall 19% (-5.5 Mt), 39% (-2.4 Mt) and 25% (-1.1 Mt), respectively. However, exports from Argentina and Brazil are forecast to increase by 3% (+1 Mt) and 2% (+1 Mt), respectively. Global ending stocks are forecast to contract slightly y/y to 308 Mt, which is slightly above the average. Among the world’s major corn exporting countries, Ukraine's 2024-25 ending stocks will be the lowest since 2011-12; Brazil's will be the lowest since 2007-08; while Argentina's 2024-25 ending stocks will be larger y/y but still significantly below average.

**Corn^{Corn note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Corn note f}	2024-2025^{Corn note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,466	1,548	1,478
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,444	1,519	1,440
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	10.00	10.15	10.53
Production (thousand tonnes)	14,539	15,421	15,168
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Corn note b}	2,227	3,000	2,900
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	19,512	20,048	19,968
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note c}	2,848	2,000	2,000
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note d}	5,327	5,450	5,450
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	9,693	10,683	10,402
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note e}	15,036	16,148	15,868
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,628	1,900	2,100
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Corn note g}	300	211	205
Table 8 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 8 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 8 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 8 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 8 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 8 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 8 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2023-24, total supply was 3,934 Kt, down 30% (-1,650 Kt) y/y and 15% below average. About 60% of the supply was for exports, which sit at 2,348 Kt in 2023-24, down 12% (-322 Kt) y/y, with grain exports falling 14% (-251 Kt) to 1,493 Kt and product exports down 8% (-71 Kt) to 855 Kt. Approximately 29% of the supply was for domestic use, which sits at 1,124 Kt in 2023-24, down 31% (-515 Kt) y/y, with animal feed use falling 36% (-528 Kt) to 935 Kt, while human food consumption is relatively stable. At 463 Kt, total stocks as of July 31, 2024, are down 64% (-812 Kt) from the near-record high on July 31, 2023, and 25% below average.

Canadian oats are sold to many global destinations. The top markets for Canadian oat grains in 2023-24 include the US (accounting for almost 75% of Canadian oat grain exports), Mexico (12%), and Chile (3%). The major markets for Canadian oat products include the US (92%), and Mexico (4%), with the majority of the remainder shipped to South Korea and Japan.

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) average oat nearby futures price for 2023-24 was finalized at $354/t, up slightly from 2022-23, also the second highest on record.

For 2024-25, Canadian oat production is projected by STC at 3.0 Mt, up 14% y/y, due to an expansion in seeded area despite a slight decline in yield. The national average yield is projected by STC at 3.19 t/ha, which is slightly lower the previous year and 3% below the average. The 2024 production will be significantly below the five-year average.

The expected larger production will be completely offset by significantly smaller carry-in stocks. Total supply for 2024-25 is estimated at 3.5 Mt, down 11% y/y and 23% below average.

Total demand is estimated at 3.1 Mt, down 11% y/y due to tighter supply. Total domestic use is projected at 1.0 Mt, down 15% y/y and 29% below the average; of which, about 80% is for domestic feed use. Total exports are forecast at 2.2 Mt, down 8% y/y and 17% below the average; of which, grain exports account for about 60% and 40% are product exports.

Carry-out stocks are estimated at a tight level of 0.4 Mt, down 14% y/y and 37% below the average.

The 2024-25 CBOT oat price is projected at $320/t, the lowest in four years, due to pressure from weakness in other crop prices.

Global oat production for 2024-25 is estimated by the USDA at 22 Mt, up significantly from 2023-24, on noticeably higher production expected from the world’s major oat exporting countries, and the US, the world’s largest oat importing country. Nevertheless, global production would still be well below the five-year average. Global ending stocks are estimated at 2.4 Mt, up 3% y/y, but remain significantly below the average.

**Oats^{Oats note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Oats note f}	2024-2025^{Oats note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,593	1,026	1,172
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,402	826	947
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.73	3.20	3.19
Production (thousand tonnes)	5,227	2,643	3,017
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note b}	25	16	20
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	5,584	3,934	3,500
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note c}	2,670	2,348	2,150
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note d}	90	91	90
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,462	935	759
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note e}	1,639	1,124	950
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,275	463	400
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Oats note g}	353	354	320
Table 9 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 9 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 9 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 9 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 9 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 9 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 9 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US N^o.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2023-24, total supply in 2023-24 was 466 Kt, down 23% (-140 Kt) y/y and 1% below average. About 42% of the supply was for exports, which 196 Kt in 2023-24, slightly below the 199 Kt shipped in 2022-23. Approximately 38% of the supply was for domestic use, which sits at 176 Kt in 2023-24, down 42% (-127 Kt) y/y, reflecting sharply lower animal feed use (accounting for 75% of total domestic use) and industrial use, while human food consumption is relatively stable. At 94 Kt, total stocks as of July 31, 2024, are down 10% (-10 Kt) y/y but 28% above average.

The major international destinations for Canadian rye have been the US (accounting for more than 95% of Canadian rye exports), with the majority of the remainder shipped to Japan and South Korea.

The average price of rye on the Canadian Prairies for 2023-24 was finalized at $217/t, down sharply from the previous two years.

For 2024-25, Canadian rye production is projected by STC at 349 Kt, down 2% y/y, primarily due to lower yield despite larger seeded area. The national average yield is projected by STC at 2.97 t/ha, the lowest in nine years. The 2024 production will be the lowest in five years and significantly below the average.

With the expected reduced production and smaller carry-in stocks, total supply for 2024-25 is forecast at 445 Kt, down 5% from last year and 9% below the average. Total demand is estimated at 360 Kt, down 3% y/y on reduced domestic feed use and exports, due to tighter supply. Carry-out stocks are estimated at 85 Kt, down 10% y/y but 3% above the average.

The 2024-25 rye average price on the Canadian Prairies is projected at $200/t, down y/y, due to pressure from weakness in other crop prices.

Global rye production for 2024-25 is estimated by the USDA at 11 Mt, down significantly from 2023-24 on noticeably lower production expected from the world’s major rye exporting countries, while the US, the world’s largest rye importing country, is forecast to have a significantly larger rye crop. Nevertheless, global production remains the lowest in five years. Global ending stocks are estimated at 717 Kt, falling sharply for the second year and would be a record low.

**Rye^{Rye note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Rye note f}	2024-2025^{Rye note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	237	178	183
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	152	116	118
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.42	3.09	2.97
Production (thousand tonnes)	520	358	349
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note b}	2	4	2
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	606	466	445
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note c}	199	196	182
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note d}	42	30	35
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	244	131	126
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note e}	303	176	178
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	105	94	85
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Rye note g}	287	217	200
Table 10 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 10 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 10 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 10 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 10 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 10 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 10 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

**Mixed Grains^{Mixed grains note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Mixed grains note f}	2024-2025^{Mixed grains note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	138	145	149
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	72	60	61
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.82	2.53	2.40
Production (thousand tonnes)	203	153	146
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	203	153	146
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note c}	0	0	0
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note d}	0	0	0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	203	153	146
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note e}	203	153	146
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	0	0	0
Table 11 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 11 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 11 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 11 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 11 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 11 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Coarse Grains^{Total coarse grains note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Total coarse grains note f}	2024-2025^{Total coarse grains note f}
Area Seeded	6,286	5,863	5,565
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	5,705	5,223	4,881
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	5.34	5.26	5.38
Production (thousand tonnes)	30,475	27,480	26,280
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note b}	2,280	3,126	3,022
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	36,460	34,321	32,980
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note c}	9,607	7,856	7,082
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note d}	5,564	5,662	5,894
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	17,199	16,774	16,345
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note e}	23,138	22,786	22,613
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,716	3,679	3,285
Table 12 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 12 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 12 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 12 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 12 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 12 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2023-24, supplies were 21.3 million tonnes (Mt) versus 20.5 Mt for 2022-23 and the five-year average of 21.1 Mt, on slightly higher carry-in, production and imports. Imports reached a 20-year high of 0.27 Mt while production was 19.2 Mt, versus the 18.8 Mt grown in 2022-23.

Canada crushed a record 11.0 Mt of canola, producing 4.7 Mt of canola oil and 6.4 Mt of canola meal. Canola oil content averaged 42.7% for 2023-24. Canola seed handling loss and seed use were minor while feed, waste, and dockage declined to 0.44 Mt.

Canola exports were 6.68 Mt, versus 7.95 Mt last year, with China purchasing about 70% of Canada’s canola shipments followed distantly by Japan and Mexico at 13% and 9%, respectively.

Carry-out is 3.09 Mt, up from 2022-23, on higher commerical stocks. The simple average price, No.1 track Vancouver finished the crop year at $715/tonne (/t), down from $857/t in 2022-23 and the five-year average of $722/t, under pressure from declining world soybean oil prices.

For 2024-25, canola area dropped slightly to 8.9 million hectares (Mha) with harvested area estimated at 8.8 Mha. Canola production is estimated at 19.0 Mt. Supplies are forecast to rise slightly from last year to 22.2 Mt on higher carry-in and output.

Demand is forecast to remain stable with domestic crush predicted at 11.5 Mt. This forecast is sensitive to the speed at which crush plants under construction become operational. Exports are projected at 7.5 Mt with the impact of China’s announced anti-dumping investigation on Canadian canola having an unknown effect at this time. Carry-out is forecast to fall to 2.50 Mt, below 2023-24 but above the five-year average of 2.33 Mt. The simple average price, No.1 track Vancouver, is forecast notably lower at $635/t.

Factors to watch are: (i) harvest pace, (ii) fall weather forecasts, (iii) farmer delivery pace, (iv) strength of crusher and exporter buying, and strength of Chinese, Japanese and Mexican import buying.

**Canola^{Canola note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Canola note f}	2024-2025^{Canola note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	8,659	8,938	8,906
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	8,596	8,857	8,825
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.19	2.17	2.15
Production (thousand tonnes)	18,850	19,192	18,981
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note b}	151	271	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	20,482	21,315	22,172
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note c}	7,950	6,683	7,500
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note d}	9,961	11,033	11,500
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	653	443	622
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note e}	10,679	11,540	12,173
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,853	3,092	2,500
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Canola note g}	857	715	635
Table 13 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to canola note a referrer Table 13 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to canola table note b referrer Table 13 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to canola table note c referrer Table 13 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to canola table note d referrer Table 13 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to canola table note e referrer Table 13 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to canola table note f referrer Table 13 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Vancouver) Return to canola table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2023-24, total supplies were 502 thousand tonnes (Kt), versus 561 Kt for 2022-23 and the five-year average of 567 Kt, as lower output moderated sharply higher carry-in stocks. Production was 273 Kt, down 42% from 473 Kt in 2022-23 and the lowest since 1967-68, on lower seeded area and reduced yields.

Total domestic use was marginally lower on a decline in feed, waste, and dockage, and stable other usage. Exports were 0.22 Mt on stronger world demand and lower prices. Carry-out stocks fell to 165 Kt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 49%. The simple average price for flaxseed No.1, in-store, Saskatoon cash, was $581/t versus $635/t for 2022-23 and the five-year average of $710/t.

For 2024-25, flaxseed seeded area fell by 17% from last year to 0.20 Mha and an estimated harvested area of 0.20 Mha. Production is forecast at 265 Kt, down slightly from last year, as the drop in seeded area is partly offset by higher yields. Supplies are projected to fall sharply to 440 Kt on lower carry-in and production.

Total domestic use is forecast to fall to 90 Kt while exports are estimated at 250 Kt. Carry-out stocks fall to 100 Kt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 29%. The simple average price forecast for flaxseed No.1 in-store Saskatoon cash is $560/t, down from last year’s $581/t and under the five-year average of $710/t.

**Flaxseed (excluding solin) ^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note f}	2024-2025^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	315	247	204
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	312	239	196
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.52	1.14	1.35
Production (thousand tonnes)	473	273	265
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note b}	6	10	10
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	561	502	440
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note c}	214	224	250
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note d}	N/A	N/A	N/A
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	117	104	71
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed note e}	128	113	90
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	220	165	100
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note g}	635	581	560
Table 14 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note a referrer Table 14 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note b referrer Table 14 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note c referrer Table 14 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note d referrer Table 14 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note e referrer Table 14 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note f referrer Table 14 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to canola table note g referrer N/A: not available Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Soybeans

For 2023-24, total supplies are up 7% from last year to 7.8 Mt, and 2% above the five-year average of 7.62 Mt, as larger carry-in and stable imports support the rise in output. Production was estimated at 7.0 Mt, up 0.4 Mt from last year and the five-year average output of 6.5 Mt.

Total domestic use is forecast to fall slightly on a decrease in crush to 1.75 Mt and a drop in feed, waste, and dockage to about 0.58 Mt. Exports are up 16% from 2022-23 to 4.9 Mt, 10% above the five-year average. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.38 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 5%. The Canadian simple average price for soybeans, track Chatham, is forecast to fall by $129/t from last year to $572/t, versus the five-year average of $562/t.

For 2024-25, soybean area in Canada increased slightly to 2.32 Mha on support from steady crusher and export buying, lower corn prices, and good soil moisture offsetting lower prices. Production rises slightly to 7.20 Mt, assuming average yields, while supplies rise to marginally above 8 Mt, the third highest on record, on a slightly higher carry-in.

Total domestic use falls marginally on a projected drop in feed, waste, and dockage to 0.40 Mt. Domestic crush is optimistically projected at 1.9 Mt on steady soyoil demand for food and fuel. Exports are forecast at 5.0 Mt, the second highest on record versus the 2018-19 out-of-country shipments of 5.64 Mt. Carry-out is forecast up, to 0.53 Mt, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 7%. The Canadian simple average price for soybeans, track Chatham, is forecast down $72/t from last year to $500/t, versus the five-year average of $562/t.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates outlook for 2024-25 in September, holding steady its prediction for a 10% increase in US soybean production to 124.8 Mt on higher planted area and yields. Total supplies are up 13.4 Mt y/y to 134.5 Mt. This allows a 6% rise in domestic crush to 66 Mt in response to growing demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock. Meanwhile, exports are projected up 9% to 50.3 Mt. Ending stocks are up 5.7 Mt from 2023-24 to 15.0 Mt, pressuring a US$62/t drop in prices to US$397/t for the upcoming crop year. US soyoil prices are predicted to fall to US$926/t from US$1,047/t for 2023-24. Soymeal prices are likewise projected down US$72/t to US$352/t for 2024-25.

The USDA’s bearishness extended to the world oilseed market with global oilseed production rising by 29.6 Mt year-over-year while world oilseed supplies increase to 818.5 Mt versus 777.7 Mt for 2023-24, and total usage increases by 12.3 Mt to 557.3 Mt for 2024-25. World trade is likewise predicted to rise to 207.7 Mt versus 204.9 Mt expected for 2023-24. Ending stocks rise by 20.0 Mt to 151.1 Mt, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 27%, maintaining pressure on world prices.

**Soybeans^{Soybeans note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Soybeans note f}	2024-2025^{Soybeans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,135	2,279	2,324
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,118	2,261	2,307
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.09	3.09	3.12
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,543	6,981	7,197
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note b}	483	450	450
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,313	7,802	8,022
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note c}	4,219	4,900	5,000
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note d}	1,768	1,750	1,900
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	719	577	397
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note e}	2,723	2,527	2,497
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	372	375	525
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Soybeans note g}	701	572	500
Table 15 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 15 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 15 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 15 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 15 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 15 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Table 15 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham) Return to soybeans table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Oilseeds^{Total Oilseeds note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Total Oilseeds note f}	2024-2025^{Total Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	11,108	11,463	11,434
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	11,026	11,356	11,328
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.35	2.33	2.33
Production (thousand tonnes)	25,866	26,445	26,443
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note b}	641	731	560
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	28,356	29,620	30,634
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note c}	12,383	11,807	12,750
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note d}	11,729	12,783	13,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,488	1,124	1,089
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note e}	13,530	14,181	14,759
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	2,444	3,632	3,125
Table 16 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 16 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 16 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 16 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 16 Note e Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 16 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2023‑24, exports were slightly lower than the 2022‑23 level at 2.45 million tonnes (Mt) due to decreased shipments to China and Bangladesh and lower demand from the US. This was partly offset by a return of India to the dry pea import market. Domestic use was lower compared to the previous year. The average dry pea price was $460/tonne (/t), slightly higher than 2022‑23 due to lower global supply and a decrease in Canadian carry‑out stocks.

For 2024‑25, Canadian dry pea production is estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) to rise by 21% from 2023‑24, to 3.2 Mt, largely due to higher yields. Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to account for 55% and 38% of the dry pea production, respectively, with the remainder in Manitoba, British Columbia, and Eastern Canada. Despite this, total supply is forecast to rise by only 0.2 Mt due to lower carry‑in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall to 2.4 Mt, with China, the US, and India continuing to be Canada’s top markets. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise sharply. The average price is expected to be lower than 2023‑24 at $375/t due to higher world supply and an increase in carry‑out stocks in Canada.

In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2024‑25 is forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to rise by 2% from 2023‑24, to 0.99 million acres (Mac) (0.40 million hectares (Mha)). This is largely due to a rise in area in North Dakota and Montana. With higher abandonment and yields, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to rise 7% to 0.87 thousand tonnes (Kt). The major US export markets for dry peas are expected to continue to be China, Canada, and the Philippines.

**Dry Peas^{Dry peas note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Dry peas note f}	2024-2025^{Dry peas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,363	1,233	1,300
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,348	1,200	1,268
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.54	2.17	2.49
Production (thousand tonnes)	3,423	2,609	3,160
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note b}	35	139	30
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	3,797	3,298	3,538
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Dry peas note b}	2,564	2,454	2,400
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note c}	684	497	638
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	550	348	500
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	17%	12%	16%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry peas note d}	440	460	375
Table 17 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry peas table note a referrer Table 17 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry peas table note b referrer Table 17 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry peas table note c referrer Table 17 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry peas table note d referrer Table 17 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry peas table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2023‑24, lentil exports fell to 1.65 Mt, down 25% from the previous year. Of this, 1.0 Mt were red lentil types, with 0.65 Mt consisting of the green lentil types. The leading export markets were Turkey, India, and the United Arab Emirates. Total domestic use was higher than the previous year at 0.28 Mt. Carry‑out stocks fell to below 0.18 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price rose to a record $1,000/t. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained a crop year record premium of $787/t over No.1 red lentil prices.

For 2024‑25, lentil production is estimated to rise by nearly 0.8 Mt to 2.6 Mt due to higher yields and area seeded. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 85% of the lentil production and 15% in Alberta. With the sharp rise in production, total supply is forecast to increase by 35% to 2.8 Mt. Exports are forecast to be higher at 2.1 Mt. Carry‑out stocks are expected to be sharply higher at 0.48 Mt. The average price for all grades is forecast to be significantly lower than 2023‑24 at $780/t due to higher carry‑out stocks and expectations for an increase in world supply.

In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2024‑25 is forecast by the USDA at 0.94 Mac (0.38 Mha), 71% higher than 2023‑24, due to increased plantings in Montana and North Dakota. However, with similar yields and higher abandonment, US lentil production is forecast by USDA at 0.43 Mt, up 66% from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, Mexico, India, and the EU, particularly Spain.

**Lentils^{Lentils note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Lentils note f}	2024-2025^{Lentils note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,749	1,485	1,704
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,715	1,460	1,677
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.36	1.23	1.55
Production (thousand tonnes)	2,331	1,801	2,593
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	87	92	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	2,642	2,104	2,847
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	2,209	1,648	2,100
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note c}	222	278	272
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	211	179	475
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	9%	9%	20%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Lentils note d}	820	1,000	780
Table 18 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to lentils table note a referrer Table 18 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to lentils table note b referrer Table 18 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to lentils table note c referrer Table 18 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to lentils table note d referrer Table 18 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to lentils table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry Beans

For 2023‑24, dry bean exports were higher than in 2022‑23 at a record 408 Kt. The EU and the US were the top two markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Mexico. A smaller North American crop provided most of the support for the record Canadian dry bean prices in 2023‑24.

For 2024‑25, Canadian production is forecast to rise by 4% to 352 Kt, due to an increase in area, despite lower yields. By province, Manitoba is expected to account for 38% of the dry bean production, Ontario (37%) and Alberta (24%). Total supply is expected to decrease by 9%, due to lower carry‑in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower than the previous year. However, carry‑out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall to $1,100/t, due to higher expected supply in North America.

In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to increase sharply to 1.53 Mac (0.62 Mha), largely due to larger area seeded in North Dakota and Minnesota. Total US dry bean production for 2024‑25 is forecast by the USDA at 1.4 Mt, 28% higher than in 2023‑24.

**Dry Beans^{Dry beans note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Dry beans note f}	2024-2025^{Dry beans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	120	129	161
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	117	129	149
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.67	2.63	2.36
Production (thousand tonnes)	313	339	352
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	70	70	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	523	489	447
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	371	408	355
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note c}	72	61	62
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	80	20	30
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	18%	4%	7%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry beans note d}	1,165	1,215	1,100
Table 19 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 19 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 19 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 19 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 19 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2023‑24, Canadian chickpea exports fell from the previous year to 187 Kt. Lower demand from the US and the EU were behind the fall in exports. With the sharply lower supply and a small decrease in exports, carry‑out stocks fell sharply from the previous year. The average price increased to a record $1,005/t.

For 2024‑25, production is forecast to more than double to 327 Kt, as sharply higher area combines with above average yields. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 88% of the chickpea production, with 12% in Alberta. Total supply is forecast to rise to a lesser extent than production, by 31% to 0.4 Mt due to lower carry‑in stocks. Exports are forecast to be similar to 2023‑24, however, due to the higher supply, carry‑out stocks are expected to increase sharply. The average price is forecast to be lower at $780/t with expectations for a larger world chickpea supply.

US chickpea area for 2024‑25 is forecast by the USDA to rise by 35% to 0.5 Mac (0.20 Mha). With lower yields and abandonment, 2024‑25 US chickpea production is forecast by USDA at 278 Kt, up 30% from the previous year. The main export markets are Pakistan, the EU, and Canada.

**Chickpeas ^{Chickpeas note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Chickpeas note f}	2024-2025^{Chickpeas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	95	128	194
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	95	127	189
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.54	1.25	1.73
Production (thousand tonnes)	146	159	327
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	42	48	45
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	364	301	394
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	198	187	190
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note c}	73	92	89
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	93	22	115
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	34%	8%	41%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Chickpeas note d}	1,000	1,005	780
Table 20 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 20 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 20 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 20 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 20 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard Seed

For 2023‑24, Canadian mustard exports were lower at 95 Kt, compared to the previous year, with the US and the EU as the top two markets. With decreased exports, higher supply resulted in carry‑out stocks rising to 88 Kt. Prices fell sharply for all mustard seed types, due to pressure from increased domestic carry-out stocks.

For 2024‑25, production is estimated at 211 Kt, 23% higher than last year, as a small decrease in area is largely offset by sharply higher yields. Supply is expected to rise by 36% to 0.31 Mt, due to higher carry‑in stocks. Exports are expected to rise to 110 Kt, with the US and the EU as the main markets for Canadian mustard seed. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise sharply for the fourth consecutive year. The average price is forecast to fall sharply from 2023‑24 to $810/t.

**Mustard Seed ^{Mustard Seed note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Mustard Seed note f}	2024-2025^{Mustard Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	225	258	245
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	219	251	237
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	0.74	0.68	0.89
Production (thousand tonnes)	162	171	211
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	11	16	9
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	189	226	308
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	110	95	110
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note c}	40	43	43
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	40	88	155
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	26%	64%	101%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Mustard Seed note d}	2,140	1,280	810
Table 21 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 21 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 21 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 21 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 21 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary Seed

For 2023‑24, exports were lower than the previous year at 114 Kt. This was due to lower exports to Mexico and the EU. The average price increased by 3% to $930/t with tighter Canadian carry‑out stocks.

For 2024‑25, production is estimated at 162 Kt, up 50 Kt from last year, due to higher yields and area. Supply is forecast to increase by 22%, despite lower carry‑in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise with larger domestic supply, with the EU and Mexico as the main markets, followed by the US. The average price is forecast to be lower than 2023‑24 at $790/t, in line with expectations for increased carry-out stocks.

**Canary Seed ^{Canary Seed note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Canary Seed note f}	2024-2025^{Canary Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	118	104	118
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	117	103	115
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.36	1.09	1.41
Production (thousand tonnes)	159	112	162
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	213	170	206
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	147	114	135
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note c}	9	11	11
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	57	44	60
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	36%	35%	41%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Canary Seed note d}	900	930	790
Table 22 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 22 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 22 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 22 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower Seed

For 2023‑24, sunflower seed exports were higher at 28 Kt due to increased demand from the US. Despite this, carry‑out stocks rose as supply increased more than total demand. The total average Canadian price for sunflower seed decreased notably from the previous year due to weaker oilseed and confectionery type prices.

For 2024‑25, production is estimated at 36 Kt, lower than last year, as higher abandonment is expected to result in lower harvested area with lower yields than the previous year. Supply is expected to fall by 9% and exports are forecast to be higher at 33 Kt. The US remains Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. As a result of the decrease in supply, carry‑out stocks are forecast to fall to 145 Kt. Sunflower seed prices are forecast to rise, to $560/t with higher prices for oil but lower prices for confectionery types.

For 2024‑25, area seeded to sunflower seed in the US is forecast by the USDA at 0.9 Mac (0.36 Mha), down 32% from 2023‑24, due to lower area seeded in North and South Dakota. The area seeded is expected to fall to 0.77 Mac (0.31 Mha) for oil type varieties and rise to 0.13 Mac (0.05 Mha) for confectionery type varieties. Assuming similar yields and abandonment, 2024‑25 US sunflower seed production is forecast by AAFC to fall sharply to 0.69 Mt.

For 2024‑25, the global supply of sunflower seed is estimated by the USDA at 55.7 Mt, which is 11% lower than last year, due to lower carry-in stocks from Ukraine. World exports are expected to fall to 2.3 Mt and domestic use is expected to decrease to 51 Mt. World carry‑out stocks are expected to fall to 2.4 Mt, down 21% from the previous year.

**Sunflower Seed ^{Sunflower Seed note a}: September 25, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024^{Sunflower Seed note f}	2024-2025^{Sunflower Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	38	40	24
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	38	40	18
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.24	2.32	2.05
Production (thousand tonnes)	84	92	36
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	40	27	35
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	242	270	246
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	22	28	33
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note c}	70	67	68
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	151	175	145
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	165%	183%	143%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Sunflower Seed note d}	800	545	560
Table 23 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 23 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic Use equals Food and industrial Use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 23 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 23 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.