Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2024-11-19

Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops (PDF version, 400 KB)

This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) October outlook report for the 2024-25 crop year, based on information available up to November 12, 2024. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. Uncertainty in Canadian and international grain markets remains elevated because of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainty around trade.

For the 2024-25 crop year, the outlook incorporates crop production estimates from Statistics Canada’s (STC) September 16, 2024 release on Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates, which were based on information as of the end of August. Production of all principal field crops is estimated to have increased 1.8% year-over-year (y/y), which would be 2.4% above the previous five-year average, largely due to improved yields y/y in Western Canada. Harvest in Western Canada is complete. Initial indications from the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) on grain harvest and export quality suggest that the quality of the 2024 Western Canadian crop is generally fair to good. In Eastern Canada, the harvest is winding up, with better than anticipated yields despite some difficulties during the growing season. Supplies of principal field crops are up by almost 1% from last year, as a slightly lower carry-in moderates the rise in production.

Demand for Canada’s principal field crops remains strong with usage of grains and oilseeds forecast to rise marginally while total demand for pulses and special crops increases by 8%. Total domestic use is projected slightly down on lower consumption of grains and oilseeds while Canadian consumption of pulse and special crops rises by 4%. Post-harvest movement of field crops has been smooth with farmer deliveries in western Canada running 12% ahead of last year based on the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) data. Exports of CGC-monitored crops are up 28% compared to October last year while domestic disappearance is marginally ahead of last year’s pace. Carry-out for all principal field crops is projected to fall by 3% as lower grain and oilseed stocks more than offset a rise in pulse and special crop carry-out. Prices for most principal field crops are significantly lower y/y, except for wheat excluding durum, corn, flaxseed, and sunflower seed.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on December 19, 2024. STC is scheduled to publish its final principal field crop production estimates for the year on December 5, 2024, based on a survey in November of approximately 28,600 farmers across Canada.

**Total Grains And Oilseeds^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	27,668	28,273	27,833
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	26,827	27,279	26,740
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.40	3.18	3.25
Production (thousand tonnes)	91,148	86,871	87,015
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note b}	2,986	3,639	3,307
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	103,861	102,299	102,094
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note c}	47,527	44,735	45,732
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Grains And Oilseeds note e}	44,544	45,793	45,627
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	11,790	11,772	10,735
Table 1 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Table 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Table 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed Use plus Loss in handling Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops e referrer Table 1 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2024-25 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Pulses and Special Crops^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	3,707	3,376	3,747
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	3,649	3,309	3,654
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.81	1.60	1.87
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,618	5,284	6,841
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note b}	284	379	269
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,971	6,844	7,931
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note b}	5,620	4,903	5,323
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Pulses and Special Crops note c}	1,170	1,120	1,168
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,182	821	1,440
Table 2 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 2 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 2 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 2 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2024-25 which are STC Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Principal Field Crops^{All Principal Field Crops note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{All Principal Field Crops note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	31,376	31,649	31,579
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	30,476	30,588	30,394
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.21	3.01	3.09
Production (thousand tonnes)	97,766	92,155	93,856
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note b}	3,270	4,018	3,576
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	111,832	109,144	110,025
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note b}	53,147	49,638	51,055
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{All Principal Field Crops note c}	45,714	46,913	46,795
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	12,971	12,593	12,175
Table 3 Note a Crop year is August-July. Grains Include pulses (dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chick peas) and special crops (mustard seed, canary seed, sunflower seed). Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note a referrer Tableau 3 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note b referrer Tableau 3 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Total Pulses and Special Crops note c referrer Table 3 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2024-25 which are STC Return to All Principal Field Crops table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat

Durum

For 2024-25, Statistics Canada (STC) expects production to increase by 48% to 6.03 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is pegged at 6.5 Mt. Final revisions will be made following STC’s final crop production estimates which will be released on December 5, 2024. Saskatchewan accounts for close to 80% of all durum production in the country, followed by Alberta (19%) with Manitoba making up the remainder.

As of October 24, the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) put 73% of all durum samples collected in the top 2 grades. The average protein content for Canada Western Amber Durum (CWAD) 1, is 14.2% and that for CWAD 2, is 15.2%.

Exports continue to move swiftly through the licensed elevator system. According to the CGC, exports of durum have outpaced last year’s shipments by 39% on average since the beginning of the crop year. The export forecast, as a result, has been increased by 100 thousand tonnes (Kt) to 4.9 Mt. Domestic use is forecast at 0.8 Mt, in line with average levels, and closing stocks have been reduced to 0.8 Mt, still close to double last year’s volume.

In their most recent report, the International Grains Commission (IGC) put world durum production at 35.4 Mt and total supply at 40.7 Mt, up almost 4% compared to last year. However, exports are forecast to decrease by 1% to 9.5 Mt, with reduced shipments to the EU and possibly Algeria, while the country is attempting to increase local production and reduce reliance on imports. Domestic production in Algeria grew 146% to 1.1 Mt in 2024-25. Total use is expected to rise by 2.6%, with an increase in food use and carry-out stocks expected at 5.9 Mt, 12.6% more than opening levels.

The average Saskatchewan spot price for CWAD 1, 13% protein is reduced to $325/tonne. Some factors to watch include: pace of Canadian deliveries, Algerian demand and Turkish durum production, and trade estimates.

**Durum ^{Durum note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,431	2,442	2,576
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,400	2,375	2,502
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.41	1.72	2.41
Production (thousand tonnes)	5,790	4,087	6,033
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note b}	1	5	25
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	6,378	4,666	6,466
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note c}	5,059	3,558	4,900
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Durum note d}	194	192	200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	317	263	337
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Durum note e}	745	701	766
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	574	407	800
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Durum note g}	445	425	325
Tableau 4 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Durum table note a referrer Tableau 4 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Durum table note b referrer Tableau 4 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Durum table note c referrer Tableau 4 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Durum table note d referrer Tableau 4 Note e total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Durum table note e referrer Tableau 4 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Durum note f referrer Tableau 4 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Durum note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2024-25, STC expects a 2% decline in production, currently reported at 28.3 Mt. Total supply is pegged at 32.6 Mt, with revisions to be made following the release of STC’s final crop production estimates in December. Saskatchewan accounts for close to 40% of Canada’s wheat production, Alberta (32%), Manitoba (17%), Ontario (9%), Quebec (1%), with the remainder in the Maritimes and British Columbia.

Of the samples collected by the CGC, 94% of Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) graded within the top 2 grades as of October 24; the average protein content is 14.1% for CWRS 1 and 13.8% for CWRS 2.

Exports are revised up to 20.8 Mt given the pace of exports to date. This is 4% less than the previous year, but 11% above average. Domestic use is stable around 0.8 Mt and closing stocks reduced to 3.8 Mt, down 10% from opening levels.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised their forecasts for supply and consumption this month, while reducing trade and stocks. Supply was raised 0.7 Mt to 1,061 Mt, while consumption was raised 0.9 Mt to 803.4 Mt on higher feed use. Global trade is forecast at 214.7 Mt, down from 221.3 in 2023-24 with reduced shipments from the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. Ending stocks are pegged at 257.6 Mt, down 3% from opening levels.

The United States all wheat supply (including durum) is estimated at 75.9 Mt, down 10% year-on-year, according to the USDA. The projections for total use is set at 31.2 Mt, up from 30.2 Mt, and closing stocks are forecast to rise to 22.2 Mt, up 17% year-on-year. Exports are expected to grow from 19.2 Mt last year to 22.5 Mt.

The average Saskatchewan spot price for CWRS 1, 13.5% protein has been reduced to $310/tonne (t), with continued attention on the pace of Canadian deliveries, Russian exports, Chinese demand, and export prices of Canada’s global competitors.

**Wheat Except Durum ^{Wheat except Durum note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Wheat except durum note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	7,844	8,505	8,258
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	7,696	8,324	8,031
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.77	3.47	3.52
Production (thousand tonnes)	29,016	28,859	28,260
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note b}	64	88	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	32,663	33,997	32,568
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note c}	20,476	21,776	20,800
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Wheat except Durum note d}	3,258	3,250	3,200
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	3,005	3,919	4,041
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Wheat except Durum note e}	7,135	8,014	7,968
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	5,051	4,208	3,800
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Wheat except Durum note g}	401	316	310
Table 5 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 5 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 5 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 5 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 5 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 5 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 5 Note g Crop year average prices: Wheat (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein) and Durum (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein), both are average Saskatchewan producer spot prices. Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**All Wheat^{All wheat note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{All wheat note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	10,274	10,947	10,834
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	10,096	10,700	10,532
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.45	3.08	3.26
Production (thousand tonnes)	34,807	32,946	34,293
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note b}	65	92	125
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	39,041	38,664	39,034
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note c}	25,536	25,334	25,700
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{All wheat note d}	3,452	3,442	3,400
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	3,323	4,181	4,378
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{All wheat note e}	7,880	8,715	8,734
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	5,625	4,615	4,600
Table 6 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 6 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 6 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 6 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 6 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 6 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2024-25, Canadian barley production is projected by Statistics Canada (STC) at 7.6 million tonnes (Mt), down 15% year-over-year (y/y), primarily due to a slightly lower yield combined with significantly smaller seeded area. The national average yield is projected by STC at 3.28 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), which is slightly lower than last year and 4% below the five-year average. If realized, 2024 production will be the lowest in a decade (excluding 2021, when an unprecedented drought in Western Canada significantly reduced Canadian barley production to 7.0 Mt) and well below the five-year average.

The final crop reports released by the Prairie provincial governments have provided final crop yield and quality estimates. Alberta has lowered its barley provincial average yield estimate from its previous estimate to 3.08 t/ha; it is down 5%, 9% and 14%, respectively, from STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average. Alberta also reported that the bulk of the barley harvest is in the top two grades, although it is below the five-year average. Saskatchewan has raised its barley yield estimate from its previous estimate to 3.41 t/ha; it is up 4%, 10%, and 8% from STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average. Saskatchewan also reported that most of the barley crop in the province graded in the top two categories, indicating good overall crop quality. Manitoba has confirmed barley yields ranging from 4.30 to 6.46 t/ha, well above STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average, and overall quality was also rated as good.

Despite an expected annual decline in production that will be for a large part offset by a significant increase in carry-in stocks, total supply for 2024-25, at 8.9 Mt, will be down 9% y/y and 14% below average. Total domestic use and exports are predicted to decline to reflect the smaller supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast at a tight level of 0.7 Mt, down 39% y/y and 14% below the average.

The 2024-25 Lethbridge average price is projected at $285/tonne (t), the lowest in four years, due to pressure from price weakness for other crops.

Globally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered the world barley supply estimate for 2024-25 from its October estimate to 191 Mt, which is down 3% y/y and 7% below the five-year average, also the lowest in six years. World feed use is projected to rise y/y, with food and industrial use to fall marginally. World ending stocks are projected at 17 Mt, down sharply to an all-time low.

**Barley^{Barley note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Barley note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,851	2,967	2,584
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,636	2,703	2,316
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.79	3.29	3.28
Production (thousand tonnes)	9,987	8,905	7,600
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note b}	26	118	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	10,556	9,731	8,852
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note c}	3,890	3,064	2,750
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Barley note d}	106	89	319
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	5,598	5,205	4,851
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Barley note e}	5,957	5,515	5,402
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	709	1,152	700
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Barley note g}	417	314	285
Table 7 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 7 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 7 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 7 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table7 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 7 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 7 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Barley (No. 1 feed, cash, in-store Lethbridge). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Corn

For 2024-25, Canadian corn production is projected by STC at 15.2 Mt, down 2% y/y, primarily due to a 5% decline in seeded area despite a much better yield outlook. The national average yield has continued to rise over the past five years, and STC expects the 2024 average yield to reach 10.53 t/ha, a record high. As a result, the 2024 production will be the second-highest on record and 6% above the average.

Ontario, Canada’s largest corn-producing province, accounts for over 60% of total corn production. Corn quality in the province is expected to be very good, with the Ontario agricultural ministry reporting low mycotoxin levels in this year’s harvest. Owing to overall favorable weather, the Ontario corn harvest was up to 80% complete as of early November, with strong yields expected. In Quebec, which accounts for approximately a quarter of Canadian corn production, corn harvest was nearly 90% finished as of early November, with overall average yield and quality reported. Manitoba, which accounts for about a tenth of Canadian corn production, harvested over half of its corn as of October 22 with reportedly very good yields ranging from 9.42 to 11.30 t/ha, well above STC’s projection, last year’s level and the five-year average.

With the expected smaller Canadian production, larger carry-in stocks, and lower imports, total supply for 2024-25 is forecast at 19.7 Mt, down slightly y/y but still above average. Total demand is projected at 17.6 Mt, down 2% y/y primarily due to smaller domestic industrial use, but it remains up 2% from the five-year average. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 2.1 Mt, up 5% y/y but 5% below the average.

The 2024-25 Chatham average price is projected at $205/t, the lowest in five years, mostly due to lower US corn prices.

For the US, the USDA lowered its forecast for 2024-25 US corn production on expected lower yields. Nonetheless, the 2024-25 corn supply in the US is estimated at 430 Mt, up y/y and close to historical highs. Exports are projected to increase from 2023-24, with domestic use being stable. Ending stocks are pegged at 49 Mt, up 10% y/y, and 25% above average. The weighted average price forecast to be received by US farmers for the marketing year is unchanged from October and is pegged at slightly above US$160/t, the lowest in five years.

Internationally, the USDA estimates world corn supply for 2024-25 at 1,717 Mt, down 1% y/y but the second largest on record. Argentina and Brazil will see a y/y increase in their corn supply, while the EU and the Black Sea region will experience a significant decrease. Despite the expected reduction in imports, China's corn supplies for 2024-25 will hit a record high on expanded production. World feed use will rise to a record high, with food and industrial use to fall. World ending stocks are projected at 304 Mt, down 3% y/y and slightly below average.

**Corn^{Corn note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Corn note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,466	1,548	1,478
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,444	1,519	1,440
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	10.00	10.15	10.53
Production (thousand tonnes)	14,539	15,421	15,168
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Corn note b}	2,227	2,788	2,500
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	19,512	19,837	19,664
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note c}	2,848	1,969	2,000
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note d}	5,327	5,999	5,550
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	9,693	9,857	9,998
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Corn note e}	15,036	15,872	15,564
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,628	1,996	2,100
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Corn note g}	300	211	205
Table 8 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 8 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 8 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 8 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 8 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 8 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 8 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Corn (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham). Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Oats

For 2024-25, Canadian oat production is projected by STC at 3.0 Mt, up 14% y/y, due to an expansion in seeded area despite a slight decline in yields. The national average yield is projected by STC at 3.19 t/ha, slightly lower than the previous year and 3% below the average. The 2024 production will be significantly below the five-year average.

Saskatchewan’s final crop report has indicated a better-than-expected provincial average yield for oats. Estimated at 3.00 t/ha, however, it is down 8%, 6% and 7%, respectively, from STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average. Manitoba has confirmed provincial yields ranging from 4.19 to 6.86 t/ha, well above STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average. Alberta has reported a worse-than-initially expected provincial average yield for oats. Pegged at 2.59 t/ha, it is down 10%, 20%, and 18%, respectively, from STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average.

The expected annual increase in production will be completely offset by significantly smaller carry-in stocks, leading to a tighter supply for 2024-25. Estimated at 3.5 Mt, the 2024-25 supply is down 12% y/y and 24% below average, also the lowest since 2002-03. Total domestic use and exports are rationed lower due to the tighter supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast at a tight level of 0.4 Mt, down 10% y/y and 36% below the average.

The 2024-25 Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) oat price is projected at $330/t, the lowest in four years, due to pressure from price weakness for other crops.

Internationally, the USDA put world oat supply for 2024-25 at 27 Mt, up 5% from the record low in 2023-24 but 7% below the five-year average. Australia and the EU will see a y/y increase in oat supply. The US will also have a larger oat supply in 2024-25, despite imports remaining steady y/y and nearing a record low. Total demand, including feed use and food, seed, and industrial use, is projected to rise y/y. World ending stocks are projected at 2.4 Mt, up slightly y/y but close to their historical lows.

**Oats^{Oats note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Oats note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,593	1,026	1,172
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,402	826	947
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.73	3.20	3.19
Production (thousand tonnes)	5,227	2,643	3,017
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note b}	25	15	20
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	5,584	3,933	3,480
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note c}	2,670	2,377	2,150
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note d}	90	79	90
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,462	937	736
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Oats note e}	1,639	1,114	930
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,275	442	400
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Oats note g}	353	354	330
Table 9 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 9 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 9 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 9 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 9 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 9 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 9 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Oats (US N^o.2 Heavy, Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) nearby futures) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

Rye

For 2024-25, Canadian rye production is projected by STC at 349 thousand tonnes (Kt), down 2% y/y, primarily due to lower yield, despite larger seeded area. The national average yield is projected by STC at 2.97 t/ha, the lowest in nine years. The 2024 production will be the lowest in five years and significantly below the five-year average.

Manitoba’s final crop report has confirmed provincial rye yields ranging from 5.02 to 6.90 t/ha, well above STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average. Saskatchewan has reported better- than-initially expected provincial average yield of 3.25 t/ha for rye; it is up 39%, 24% and 20%, respectively, from STC’s projection, last year’s level, and the five-year average. Alberta also reported that fall rye yield in the province is expected to be above the five-year average index.

With the expected reduced production and smaller carry-in stocks, total supply for 2024-25 is forecast at 442 Kt, down 5% y/y and 10% below the average, also the lowest in five years. Total domestic use and exports are rationed lower due to the tighter supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 85 Kt, down 7% y/y but 4% above the average.

The 2024-25 rye average price on the Canadian Prairies is projected at $200/t, down y/y, due to pressure from price weakness for other crops.

Internationally, the USDA put world rye supply for 2024-25 at 12 Mt, down 10% y/y and 13% below the five-year average, also the lowest in six years. Rye supply in the EU will experience a noticeable y/y decline. The US will have a larger rye supply, despite a significant decrease in expected imports. World feed use, as well as food and industrial use, are projected to fall y/y. World ending stocks are projected at 714 Kt, falling sharply for the second year and would be a record low.

**Rye^{Rye note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Rye note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	237	178	183
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	152	116	118
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.42	3.09	2.97
Production (thousand tonnes)	520	358	349
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note b}	2	4	2
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	606	466	442
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note c}	199	198	182
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note d}	42	30	35
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	244	132	123
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Rye note e}	303	177	175
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	105	91	85
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Rye note g}	287	217	200
Table 10 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 10 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 10 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 10 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 10 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 10 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Table 10 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to Wheat except Durum table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada

**Mixed Grains^{Mixed grains note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Mixed grains note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	138	145	149
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	72	60	61
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.82	2.53	2.40
Production (thousand tonnes)	203	153	146
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	203	153	146
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note c}	0	0	0
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note d}	0	0	0
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	203	153	146
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Mixed grains note e}	203	153	146
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	0	0	0
Table 11 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August. Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 11 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 11 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 11 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 11 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 11 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Coarse Grains^{Total coarse grains note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Total coarse grains note f}
Area Seeded	6,286	5,863	5,565
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	5,705	5,223	4,881
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	5.34	5.26	5.38
Production (thousand tonnes)	30,475	27,480	26,280
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note b}	2,280	2,924	2,622
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	36,460	34,120	32,582
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note c}	9,607	7,608	7,082
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note d}	5,564	6,196	5,994
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	17,199	16,284	15,854
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total coarse grains note e}	23,138	22,831	22,216
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	3,716	3,681	3,285
Table 12 Note a Crop year is August to July, except corn and soybeans, for which the crop year is September to August Return to Wheat except Durum table note a referrer Table 12 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note b referrer Table 12 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Wheat except Durum table note c referrer Table 12 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Wheat except Durum table note d referrer Table 12 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Wheat except Durum table note e referrer Table 12 Note f forecast by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Wheat except Durum table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2024-25, canola area decreased slightly to 8.9 million hectares (Mha) with harvested area estimated at 8.8 Mha. Canola production is estimated at 19.0 million tonnes (Mt). Supplies are forecast to rise slightly from last year to 21.8 Mt on higher carry-in and output.

For the current year, canola is averaging an oil content of 42.4% based on 1,199 samples submitted to the Canadian Grain Commission’s harvest sample program as of October 30th. The oil content of the submitted samples ranged from a low of 32.5% to a high of 50.0%, with 92% of the samples grading as No.1. The protein content across all samples averaged 23.1%, while the chlorophyll content averaged 10 milligrams per kilogram (mg/kg) with Alberta and British Columbia averaging 12.5 mg/kg. Glucosinolates, a measure of livestock feed quality, averaged 10.1 micromoles per gram. For 2024-25 to September 30th, Statistics Canada reports 1.78 Mt of canola was crushed producing 0.76 Mt of canola oil and 1.04 Mt of canola meal, for an oil and meal content of 42.5%, and 58%, respectively.

Demand for canola is forecast to remain relatively stable with domestic crush predicted at 11.5 Mt. This forecast is sensitive to the speed at which crush plants under construction become operational. Exports are projected at 7.5 Mt with the impact of China’s announced anti-dumping investigation on Canadian canola being unknown at this time. Carry-out is forecast to fall to 2.20 Mt, below 2023-24 and the five-year average of 2.26 Mt. The simple average price, No.1 track Vancouver, is forecast notably lower at $660/t.

Factors to observe are: (i) strength of Chinese, Japanese, and Mexican import buying, (ii) pace of crusher buying, (iii) pace of farmer deliveries, (iv) revisions to Statistics Canada’s production estimates arising from the post-harvest survey, (vi) and timeline for crush plants under construction to become operational.

**Canola^{Canola note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Canola note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	8,659	8,938	8,906
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	8,596	8,857	8,825
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.19	2.17	2.15
Production (thousand tonnes)	18,850	19,192	18,981
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note b}	151	276	100
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	20,485	21,325	21,828
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note c}	7,950	6,683	7,500
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note d}	9,961	11,033	11,500
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	651	797	577
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Canola note e}	10,678	11,894	12,128
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	1,858	2,748	2,200
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Canola note g}	857	715	660
Table 13 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to canola note a referrer Table 13 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to canola table note b referrer Table 13 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to canola table note c referrer Table 13 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to canola table note d referrer Table 13 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to canola table note e referrer Table 13 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to canola table note f referrer Table 13 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Vancouver) Return to canola table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Flaxseed

For 2024-25, flaxseed seeded area fell by 17% from last year to 0.20 Mha with an estimated harvested area of 0.20 Mha. Production is forecast at 265 thousand tonnes (Kt), down slightly from last year, with the decrease in seeded area partly offset by higher yields. Supplies are projected to fall sharply to 440 Kt on lower carry-in and production.

Total domestic use is forecast to fall to 90 Kt, while exports are estimated at 250 Kt, higher than last year. Carry-out stocks fall to 100 Kt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 29%. The simple average price forecast for flaxseed No.1 in-store Saskatoon cash is $565/tonne (t), down from last year’s $581/t and under the five-year average of $724/t.

**Flaxseed (excluding solin) ^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	315	247	204
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	312	239	196
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.52	1.14	1.35
Production (thousand tonnes)	473	273	265
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note b}	6	10	10
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	561	502	440
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note c}	214	211	250
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note d}	N/A	N/A	N/A
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	117	117	71
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Flaxseed note e}	128	127	90
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	220	164	100
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Flaxseed (excluding solin) note g}	635	581	565
Table 14 Note a Crop year is August to July Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note a referrer Table 14 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note b referrer Table 14 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note c referrer Table 14 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note d referrer Table 14 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note e referrer Table 14 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Flaxseed (excluding solin) table note f referrer Table 14 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Rye (No. 1 Canada Western, cash, in-store Saskatoon) Return to canola table note g referrer N/A: not available Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Soybeans

For 2024-25, soybean area in Canada increased slightly to 2.32 Mha, as support from steady crusher and export buying, lower corn prices, and good soil moisture offset lower prices. Production is estimated up slightly to 7.20 Mt, assuming average yields, while supplies rise to 8.2 Mt, the third highest on record on higher carry-in.

Total domestic use is forecast to rise on higher processing and a slightly higher feed, waste, and dockage of 0.41 Mt. Domestic crush is optimistically projected at 1.85 Mt on steady food and fuel demand for soy-oil. Exports are forecast at 5.2 Mt, the second highest on record versus the 2018-19 out-of-country shipments of 5.64 Mt. Carry-out is forecast steady at 0.55 Mt for a stocks-to-use ratio of 7%. The Canadian simple average price for soybeans, track Chatham, is projected $107/t lower from last year to $465/t, versus the five-year average of $595/t.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates outlook for 2024-25 in November, lowering its prediction for a bump in US soybean production, up 7% to 121.4 Mt, on lower yields and stable planted area compared to October. Total supplies are up 10.1 Mt year-over-year (y/y) to 131.1 Mt. While domestic crush and exports are scaled back from last month’s release, they are up 5% and 8% respectively from last year to 65.6 Mt and 49.7 Mt. Ending stocks are up 5.7 Mt from 2023-24 to 12.8 Mt, pressuring a US$59/t drop in the average farm price to US$397/t.

The USDA’s bearishness extended to the world oilseed market, with global oilseed production rising by 24.3 Mt year-over-year while world oilseed supplies increase to 813.9 Mt versus 778.1 Mt for 2023-24, and total usage increases by 10.8 Mt to 556.9 Mt for 2024-25. World trade is likewise predicted to rise to 207.4 Mt versus 204.4 Mt estimated for 2023-24. Ending stocks rose by 16.0 Mt to 147.7 Mt, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 27%, maintaining pressure on world prices.

**Soybeans^{Soybeans note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Soybeans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	2,135	2,279	2,324
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	2,118	2,261	2,307
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	3.09	3.09	3.12
Production (thousand tonnes)	6,543	6,981	7,197
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note b}	483	336	450
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	7,313	7,688	8,209
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note c}	4,220	4,899	5,200
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Soybeans note d}	1,768	1,652	1,850
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	718	333	410
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Soybeans note e}	2,722	2,227	2,460
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	372	563	550
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Soybeans note g}	701	572	465
Table 15 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 15 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 15 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 15 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 15 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 15 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Table 15 Note g Specification of crops for crop year average prices: Soybeans (No.2 CE, cash, in-store Chatham) Return to soybeans table note g referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

**Total Oilseeds^{Total Oilseeds note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Total Oilseeds note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	11,108	11,463	11,434
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	11,026	11,356	11,328
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.35	2.33	2.33
Production (thousand tonnes)	25,866	26,445	26,443
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note b}	641	622	560
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	28,360	29,516	30,478
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note c}	12,384	11,793	12,950
Food and Industrial Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note d}	11,729	12,685	13,350
Feed, Waste & Dockage (thousand tonnes)	1,486	1,248	1,058
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Total Oilseeds note e}	13,527	14,248	14,678
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	2,449	3,475	2,850
Table 16 Note a Crop year is September-August. Return to soybeans table note a referrer Table 16 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to soybeans table note b referrer Table 16 Note c Exports include grain products but exclude oilseed products. Return to soybeans table note c referrer Table 16 Note d Food and Industrial Use for soybeans is based on data from the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. Return to soybeans table note d referrer Table 16 Note e Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling Return to soybeans table note e referrer Table 16 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to soybeans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2024-25, production is estimated to rise by 21% to 3.16 million tonnes (Mt). This is largely due to higher yields, especially in Saskatchewan where 53% of the peas are grown. Yellow pea production is forecast to be higher than last year at over 2.5 Mt and green pea production is expected to rise to 0.47 Mt. Production of the other remaining dry pea types is also expected to be higher at 160 thousand tonnes (Kt). Supply is forecast to be only 6% above last year at 3.5 Mt due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to remain unchanged at 2.4 Mt. From August to September 2024, China and India were Canada’s top two markets. With the larger supply, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply. The average price is expected to decrease by 12% from 2023-24 to $405/tonne (t) due to weaker spot prices for all types.

During October, the on farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan rose by $15/t while the price of green pea types rose by $30/t. Current indications of crop quality suggest a similar percentage of Canadian dry peas will grade No.1 and No.2, when compared to last year. With this and the higher Canadian output, it will result in a larger supply of No.1 and No.2 dry peas for this crop year. For the crop year to date, there has been a $165/t premium for green dry peas to yellow dry peas, versus a green pea premium of $185/t to yellow peas in 2023-24.

Area seeded to dry peas in the US for 2024-25 is forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to rise by 2% from last year to 0.99 million acres (0.4 million hectares (Mha)). This is largely due to higher seeded area in North Dakota. US dry pea yields are estimated to be above average and dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to rise from last year by 7% to 0.87 Mt. The main export markets for US dry peas are Canada, the Philippines, and China.

**Dry Peas^{Dry peas note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Dry peas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,363	1,233	1,300
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,348	1,200	1,268
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.54	2.17	2.49
Production (thousand tonnes)	3,423	2,609	3,160
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note b}	35	127	30
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	3,797	3,286	3,489
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Dry peas note b}	2,564	2,401	2,400
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry peas note c}	684	586	639
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	550	299	450
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	17%	10%	15%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry peas note d}	440	460	405
Table 17 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry peas table note a referrer Table 17 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry peas table note b referrer Table 17 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry peas table note c referrer Table 17 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry peas table note d referrer Table 17 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry peas table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Lentils

For 2024-25, production is estimated to rise by nearly 0.8 Mt (44%) to 2.6 Mt, due to higher yields in Western Canada. Production of red lentils rose sharply from last year to 1.6 Mt, while large green lentil production more than doubled to 0.7 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types rose to 0.3 Mt.

Supply is expected to rise to a lesser extent by 35% due to lower carry in stocks. Exports are expected to increase to 2.1 Mt. To date, India, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates are the top export markets. Carry out stocks are forecast to rise sharply to 0.48 Mt. The overall average price is forecast to fall by 15% to $850/t, with an above-average grade distribution.

During the month of October, the on farm price in Saskatchewan for large green lentils rose by $165/t and red lentil prices increased by $65/t. This was largely due to strong export demand for lentils. Compared to last year, an increase in the supply of No.1 or No.2 grade Canadian lentils is expected for 2024-25. To date, large green lentil prices have maintained a premium of $510/t over red lentil prices, compared to a $785/t premium in 2023-24.

For 2024-25, US area seeded to lentils is forecast by the USDA to rise by 71% from 2023-24, largely due to higher area seeded in Montana. With lower yields and abandonment, 2024-25 US lentil production is therefore forecast by the USDA at 0.43 Mt, up 66% from the production in 2023-24. The main US export markets for lentils to date are the European Union (EU), Canada and Mexico.

**Lentils^{Lentils note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Lentils note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	1,749	1,485	1,704
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	1,715	1,460	1,677
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.36	1.23	1.55
Production (thousand tonnes)	2,331	1,801	2,593
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	87	92	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	2,642	2,104	2,833
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note b}	2,209	1,674	2,100
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Lentils note c}	222	265	258
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	211	165	475
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	9%	9%	20%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Lentils note d}	820	1,000	850
Table 18 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to lentils table note a referrer Table 18 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to lentils table note b referrer Table 18 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to lentils table note c referrer Table 18 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to lentils table note d referrer Table 18 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to lentils table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Dry Beans

For 2024-25, production is estimated to have increased by 4% to 352 thousand tonnes (Kt). This includes 63 Kt of white pea bean types and 289 Kt of colored bean types. Production in Ontario and Manitoba rose due to higher seeded area offsetting lower yields. In Alberta, colored dry bean production also increased due to higher area but lower yields. Supply is forecast to fall by 9% due to lower carry in stocks.

Exports are forecast to be lower than last year. Based on data for August and September, the EU and the US are the top two markets. Carry out stocks are expected to increase. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall to $1,100/t due to higher North American supply.

Area seeded to dry beans in the US is estimated by the USDA to increase by 30% to 1.53 million acres (0.62 Mha), mostly due to larger area seeded in North Dakota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at just over 1.3 Mt, up 23% from 2023-24. The largest increases are expected for black and pinto beans. The main US export markets continue to be the EU and Mexico.

**Dry Beans^{Dry beans note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Dry beans note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	120	129	161
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	117	129	149
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.67	2.63	2.36
Production (thousand tonnes)	313	339	352
Imports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	70	70	75
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	523	489	447
Exports (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note b}	371	408	355
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes)^{Dry beans note c}	72	61	62
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	80	20	30
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	18%	4%	7%
Average Price ($/tonne)^{Dry beans note d}	1,165	1,215	1,100
Table 19 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 19 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 19 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 19 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 19 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Chickpeas

For 2024-25, production is estimated at 327 Kt, more than double the last year’s output due to higher seeded area and yields. The production of both kabuli and desi types is estimated to be higher than the previous year. Total supply, however, is forecast to increase by 34% due to sharply lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast at 190 Kt with the US and the EU as the top markets. Carry out stocks are expected to rise sharply, largely due to increased supply. The average price is forecast to be lower than the previous year, at $800/t due to expectations for increased world production, with an above-average Canadian crop quality.

The USDA has estimated US chickpea area seeded at 0.5 million acres (0.2 Mha), 35% higher than in 2023-24. With below average yields, 2024-25 US chickpea production is forecast by the USDA at 0.28 Mt, up 30% from 2023-24.

**Chickpeas ^{Chickpeas note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Chickpeas note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	95	128	194
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	95	127	189
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.54	1.25	1.73
Production (thousand tonnes)	146	159	327
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	42	47	45
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	364	299	402
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note b}	198	183	190
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Chickpeas note c}	73	87	87
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	93	30	125
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	34%	11%	45%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Chickpeas note d}	1,000	1,005	800
Table 20 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 20 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 20 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 20 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 20 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Mustard Seed

For 2024-25, production is estimated to have risen by 40 Kt to 211 Kt, due to higher yields, offsetting lower seeded area. Production of yellow, brown, and oriental types of mustard seed increased. Total supply is forecast to rise by 36% to 308 Kt. Exports are expected to be higher at 110 Kt and, as of August and September, the US and the EU are the top two markets. Carry out stocks are forecast to rise sharply in Canada and the US, as a result, the average price is forecast to fall from 2023-24 to $830/t, the lowest since 2019-20.

**Mustard Seed ^{Mustard Seed note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Mustard Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	225	258	245
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	219	251	237
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	0.74	0.68	0.89
Production (thousand tonnes)	162	171	211
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	11	16	9
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	189	226	308
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note b}	110	96	110
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Mustard Seed note c}	40	42	43
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	40	88	155
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	26%	64%	101%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Mustard Seed note d}	2,140	1,280	830
Table 21 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to dry beans table note a referrer Table 21 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to dry beans table note b referrer Table 21 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to dry beans table note c referrer Table 21 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to dry beans table note d referrer Table 21 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to dry beans table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Canary Seed

For 2024-25, production is estimated to rise by 50 Kt to 162 Kt due to higher area and yields. Exports are expected to be higher than the previous year with larger available supply. Based on data for August and September, Mexico and the EU are the top two export markets, followed by the US. Carry out stocks are expected to rise. The average price is forecast to be 22% lower than last year at $730/t.

**Canary Seed ^{Canary Seed note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Canary Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	118	104	118
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	117	103	115
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	1.36	1.09	1.41
Production (thousand tonnes)	159	112	162
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	0	0	0
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	213	170	206
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note b}	147	112	135
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Canary Seed note c}	9	13	11
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	57	44	60
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	36%	35%	41%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Canary Seed note d}	900	930	730
Table 22 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 22 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 22 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 22 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Sunflower Seed

For 2024-25, production is estimated to have fallen sharply to 36 Kt on lower harvested area and yields. When compared to 2023-24, supply is expected to decrease to 246 Kt, as higher carry in stocks offset lower production. Exports are forecast to be higher than the previous year and carry out stocks are forecast to decrease. The US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to be $560/t, slightly higher than last year, mostly due to stronger oilseed type prices than in 2023-24.

US sunflower seed production for 2024-25 is forecast by the USDA at 0.59 Mt, down 42% from 2023-24. This is largely due to lower production in North and South Dakota. Production of oil-type varieties is estimated to have fallen to 0.46 Mt and the production of confectionery-type varieties is estimated to have decreased to 0.13 Mt. However, total US supply is expected to decrease by 24% to 1.0 Mt. Domestic use is expected to fall. US sunflower seed carry out stocks are expected to fall and support North American sunflower seed prices.

The world supply of sunflower seed for 2024-25 is estimated by the USDA at 56.0 Mt. This is 11% lower than last year, due to decreased production in the Ukraine and Russia. World domestic use is expected to fall to 51.3 Mt and world exports are forecast to fall to 2.3 Mt. World carry out stocks are expected to be 26% lower than the previous year at 2.3 Mt.

**Sunflower Seed ^{Sunflower Seed note a}: November 19, 2024**
	2022-2023	2023-2024	2024-2025^{Sunflower Seed note f}
Area seeded (thousand hectares)	38	40	24
Area harvested (thousand hectares)	38	40	18
Yield (tonnes per hectare)	2.24	2.32	2.05
Production (thousand tonnes)	84	92	36
Imports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	40	27	35
Total supply (thousand tonnes)	242	270	246
Exports (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note b}	22	30	33
Total Domestic Use (thousand tonnes) ^{Sunflower Seed note c}	70	66	68
Carry-out Stocks (thousand tonnes)	151	175	145
Stocks-to-Use Ratio	165%	184%	143%
Average Price ($/tonne) ^{Sunflower Seed note d}	800	545	560
Table 23 Note a Crop year is August-July. Return to Canary seed table note a referrer Table 23 Note b Imports exclude products. Return to Canary seed table note b referrer Table 22 Note c Total domestic use equals Food and industrial use plus Feed waste and dockage plus Seed use plus Loss in handling. Return to Canary seed table note c referrer Table 23 Note d Producer price, Free-on-board (FOB) plant, average over all types, grades and markets. Return to Canary seed table note d referrer Table 23 Note f forecasts by AAFC except for area, yield and production for 2023-24 which are STC Return to Canary seed table note f referrer Source: Statistics Canada (STC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, crop years, and preferred file format in your request.